San Diego Chargers Playoff Chances 2015

Beat Detroit 35-14, playoff odds up 17.9 to 55.4%
1-0-0   1.000

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 9/13100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
San Diego 35 Detroit 14 +6.1
+0.7
Washington 33 Miami 10 +0.3
+0.0
Tampa Bay 24 Tennessee 14 +0.2
New England 17 Pittsburgh 38 +0.1
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Denver vs Baltimore-0.6*-0.7+0.8
-0.1*-0.0+0.1
Oakland vs Cincinnati-0.6*-2.2+0.8
-0.1*-0.1+0.1
Houston vs Kansas City+0.5*+3.1-0.6
+0.0*+0.2-0.1
Jacksonville vs Carolina-0.3*-2.7+0.4
Buffalo vs Indianapolis*+0.0+0.1-0.0
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/20100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Cincinnati vs San Diego-9.0*+0.8+10.3
-0.9*+0.1+1.1
Oakland vs Baltimore-0.6*+0.2+0.8
-0.0*-0.0+0.1
Carolina vs Houston+0.4*+4.1-0.5
+0.0*+0.3-0.0
Pittsburgh vs San Francisco-0.3*-0.4+0.4
-0.0*-0.1+0.0
Buffalo vs New England-0.0*-0.2+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the San Diego finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed
TWW-L-Tplayoffs12345678910111213141516Count
1615-0-0In100103
1514-1-0In1000641
14.513-1-1In10012
1413-2-0In991004,342
13.512-2-1In98243
1312-3-0In9460117,472
12.511-3-1In89101163
1211-4-0In7420204046,862
11.510-4-1In622747382
1110-5-0100.0%3636121141091,770
9-4-2In1001
10.59-5-1In1937192202712
109-6-097.852125926112000134,412
8-5-2In141457147
9.58-6-191.9192113272171931
98-7-065.8021116122420103100152,258
7-6-250.050502
8.57-7-137.8041341727221120937
87-8-012.1017041121241993100132,235
6-7-2Out50502
7.56-8-13.13011121312392708
76-9-00.90100151424261882088,770
5-8-2Out50502
6.55-9-1Out141427311951403
65-10-00.0000310243224746,077
5.54-10-1Out1212324013197
54-11-0Out00317423818,012
3-10-2Out1002
4.53-11-1Out29335746
43-12-0Out0222764,911
3.52-12-1Out227818
32-13-0Out595980
1-2.5Out100171*
Total:55.4%131096987665544332743,584

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 9/13100.0*Lottery seed
San Diego 35 Detroit 14 -1.7
New England 17 Pittsburgh 38 -0.1
San Francisco 28 Minnesota 21 +0.1
Washington 33 Miami 10 +0.0
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Denver vs Baltimore+0.1*+0.0-0.1
Oakland vs Cincinnati+0.1*+0.2-0.1
NY Jets vs Cleveland+0.0*+0.2-0.1
Jacksonville vs Carolina-0.0*+0.1+0.0
Houston vs Kansas City-0.0*-0.3+0.0
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/20100.0*Lottery seed
Cincinnati vs San Diego+1.8*-0.2-2.1
Indianapolis vs NY Jets+0.0+0.4-0.0
Oakland vs Baltimore+0.1*+0.0-0.1
Green Bay vs Seattle-0.0*-0.3+0.1
Cleveland vs Tennessee-0.0*+0.5+0.1
Chicago vs Arizona-0.0*+0.2+0.0
Pittsburgh vs San Francisco-0.0*+0.1+0.0
Carolina vs Houston-0.0*-0.7+0.0
Washington vs St. Louis-0.0*+0.3+0.0
Buffalo vs New England+0.0*+0.2-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TWW-L-T1234567891011121314151617181920212223242526272829303132
1615-0-0100
1514-1-09900
14.513-1-1100
1413-2-0972100
13.512-2-19522
1312-3-084106001
12.511-3-17217101
1211-4-04925191200400
11.510-4-12735261471
1110-5-01025261111110131100
9-4-2100
10.59-5-12171423172218220
109-6-00551616108116101012000
8-5-21414292914
9.58-6-1109714941017164710
98-7-00022109721012121411621000
7-6-25050
8.57-7-1004310411691918115100
87-8-0001160004261014161512841000
6-7-25050
7.56-8-1301713241919941
76-9-00010000125101416171510621000
5-8-25050
6.55-9-1014112321239421
65-10-000001261217212013620
5.54-10-1131225252591
54-11-00141021302510
3-10-25050
4.53-11-17264324
43-12-002123749
3.52-12-1113356
32-13-0011584
1-2.5100
Total:76655443544343333333222222221111