Pittsburgh Steelers Playoff Chances 2015

Beat New England 38-17, playoff odds up 20.4 to 57.8%
1-0-0   1.000

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 9/13100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
New England 17 Pittsburgh 38 +10.3
+1.3
San Diego 35 Detroit 14 -0.4
-0.0
Tampa Bay 24 Tennessee 14 +0.4
+0.0
Washington 33 Miami 10 +0.3
+0.0
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Denver vs Baltimore+0.6*+1.0-0.8
+0.1*+0.1-0.1
Oakland vs Cincinnati+0.5*+1.9-0.7
+0.0*+0.3-0.1
NY Jets vs Cleveland+0.5*-0.2-0.7
+0.0*-0.0-0.1
Jacksonville vs Carolina-0.3*+1.0+0.4
-0.0*+0.3+0.0
Houston vs Kansas City-0.0*-0.3+0.0
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/20100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Pittsburgh vs San Francisco+6.3*-2.8-9.2
+0.6*-0.3-0.9
Oakland vs Baltimore+0.5*+0.3-0.7
+0.1*+0.2-0.1
Cincinnati vs San Diego-0.5*+3.4+0.6
-0.1*+0.3+0.1
Cleveland vs Tennessee-0.4*+2.2+0.6
-0.0*+0.3+0.1
Carolina vs Houston+0.3*-3.5-0.3
+0.0*-0.2-0.0
Indianapolis vs NY Jets+0.0+0.6-0.0
Buffalo vs New England-0.0*+0.3+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Pittsburgh finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed
TWW-L-Tplayoffs12345678910111213141516Count
14.5-16In100904*
1413-2-0In99104,821
13.512-2-1In10044
1312-3-0In94600118,653
12.511-3-1In87112167
1211-4-0In7520204048,957
10-3-2In50502
11.510-4-1In6326506394
1110-5-0100.0%3836111141094,377
9-4-2In33676
10.59-5-1In2037212192721
109-6-098.07232472711200136,551
8-5-2In1001
9.58-6-193.11102314262061909
98-7-069.603131415251982000152,049
7-6-2Out1002
8.57-7-142.0061531825219300873
87-8-014.8017161724231462000130,440
6-7-2In1001
7.56-8-14.2042823332261667
76-9-01.0010013102025221341086,152
5-8-2Out50502
6.55-9-1Out051527321551382
65-10-00.00001616282916443,801
4-9-2Out1001
5.54-10-1Out118343017163
54-11-0Out001723422716,722
4.53-11-1Out22405650
43-12-0Out0428674,700
3.52-12-1Out17836
32-13-0Out0990897
2.51-13-1Out1004
21-14-0Out397101
10-15-0Out29864
Total:57.8%1411961087665443321743,584

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 9/13100.0*Lottery seed
New England 17 Pittsburgh 38 -2.4
San Francisco 28 Minnesota 21 -0.1
Tampa Bay 24 Tennessee 14 -0.0
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Oakland vs Cincinnati-0.1-0.6+0.1
Houston vs Kansas City+0.0+0.6-0.1
Denver vs Baltimore-0.1*-0.2+0.1
Buffalo vs Indianapolis+0.1*+0.1-0.1
NY Jets vs Cleveland-0.0*+0.1+0.0
Jacksonville vs Carolina+0.0*-0.6-0.0
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/20100.0*Lottery seed
Pittsburgh vs San Francisco-1.5+0.5+2.1
Oakland vs Baltimore-0.1*-0.2+0.1
New Orleans vs Tampa Bay-0.0-0.2+0.0
Buffalo vs New England+0.1*-0.7-0.1
Cincinnati vs San Diego+0.1*-0.6-0.1
Indianapolis vs NY Jets-0.0*-1.2+0.1
Washington vs St. Louis+0.0*-0.2-0.1
Green Bay vs Seattle+0.0*+0.9-0.1
Chicago vs Arizona+0.0*+0.3-0.0
Cleveland vs Tennessee+0.0*-0.4-0.0
Carolina vs Houston-0.0*+0.5+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TWW-L-T1234567891011121314151617181920212223242526272829303132
1615-0-0100
1514-1-01000
14.513-1-1100
1413-2-097210
13.512-2-1955
1312-3-0841060001
12.511-3-17216112
1211-4-05025191200400
10-3-25050
11.510-4-1323123350060
1110-5-01127251110110131100
9-4-2335017
10.59-5-12181422182217220
109-6-007617159611791012000
8-5-2100
9.58-6-110971611291716461
98-7-0003211863121312159410000
7-6-25050
8.57-7-106412031161018161131
87-8-000116010638131615139521000
6-7-2100
7.56-8-10424152026178300
76-9-00010000013813161715128410000
5-8-2100
6.55-9-115132026171341
65-10-000001381419211711510
4-9-2100
5.54-10-1213272816112
54-11-000015132328228
4.53-11-1214223230
43-12-0003143844
3.52-12-1175033
32-13-0011781
2.51-13-1100
21-14-0496
10-15-0100
Total:87655432645443333322222222211111