New England Patriots Playoff Chances 2015

Lost to Pittsburgh 17-38, playoff odds down 16 to 21.5%
0-1-0   .000

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 9/13100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
New England 17 Pittsburgh 38 -10.0
-1.3
Washington 33 Miami 10 +1.0
+0.1
San Diego 35 Detroit 14 -0.3
-0.0
Tampa Bay 24 Tennessee 14 +0.2
+0.0
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Buffalo vs Indianapolis-0.9*+2.2+1.2
-0.1*+0.1+0.1
NY Jets vs Cleveland-0.6*+1.7+0.8
-0.0+0.1+0.0
Houston vs Kansas City+0.2*+0.7-0.2
+0.0*-0.1-0.0
Jacksonville vs Carolina-0.0*-0.4+0.0
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/20100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Buffalo vs New England-7.1*+1.4+11.0
-0.9*+0.3+1.5
Indianapolis vs NY Jets+0.9*-3.0-1.1
+0.0-0.5-0.1
Jacksonville vs Miami+0.4*-1.7-0.7
+0.0*-0.2-0.0
Carolina vs Houston+0.0*+0.1-0.0
Pittsburgh vs San Francisco-0.0*+0.4+0.0
Cincinnati vs San Diego-0.0*+0.2+0.0
Cleveland vs Tennessee-0.0*-0.2+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the New England finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed
TWW-L-Tplayoffs12345678910111213141516Count
1515-0-0In98258
1414-1-0In955111
13.513-1-1In1001
1313-2-0In901000881
12.512-2-1In851513
1212-3-0In68282014,582
11.511-3-1In5141839
1111-4-0100.0%3043162710016,800
10-3-2In1001
10.510-4-1In1639252152165
1010-5-098.1523321416920043,685
9.59-5-191.9192822191462356
99-6-071.4031527918169310086,729
8-5-2In1001
8.58-6-143.805242132221940651
88-7-020.700115141119221682000130,059
7-6-2Out50502
7.57-7-15.3050210213022821853
77-8-02.9030002716242416710151,439
6.56-8-10.40141426292060976
66-9-00.2000014122531216137,250
5-8-2Out50502
5.55-9-1Out312303817669
55-10-00.000001519413594,698
4-9-2Out50502
4.54-10-1Out053460440
44-11-0Out03247348,752
3.53-11-1Out1090164
33-12-0Out069318,474
2.52-12-1Out29844
22-13-0Out1994,827
1.51-13-1Out1005
11-14-0Out0100745
0-0.5Out100110*
Total:21.5%2347234566789101114743,584

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 9/13100.0*Lottery seed
New England 17 Pittsburgh 38 +2.4
Washington 33 Miami 10 -0.1
Tampa Bay 24 Tennessee 14 +0.0
San Diego 35 Detroit 14 +0.0
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Houston vs Kansas City-0.1-0.0+0.1
Buffalo vs Indianapolis+0.1*-0.1-0.1
Denver vs Baltimore-0.1*-0.2+0.1
Jacksonville vs Carolina-0.1*+0.6+0.1
Atlanta vs Philadelphia+0.1*-0.3-0.1
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/20100.0*Lottery seed
Buffalo vs New England+1.8*-0.6-2.8
Jacksonville vs Miami-0.0+0.3+0.0
Green Bay vs Seattle-0.0+0.3+0.0
Pittsburgh vs San Francisco-0.1*-0.5+0.1
Washington vs St. Louis-0.1*-0.4+0.1
Kansas City vs Denver+0.1*+0.3-0.1
Cleveland vs Tennessee+0.1*+0.5-0.1
NY Giants vs Atlanta-0.1*+0.3+0.1
Indianapolis vs NY Jets-0.0*+1.0+0.1
Carolina vs Houston+0.0*-0.3-0.1
Chicago vs Arizona+0.0*+0.1-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TWW-L-T1234567891011121314151617181920212223242526272829303132
1515-0-0982
1414-1-09515
13.513-1-1100
1313-2-078129000
12.512-2-1691515
1212-3-0402827220010
11.511-3-123283838
1111-4-062427171512071100
10-3-2100
10.510-4-1413152422221232
1010-5-00441916161228781200
9.59-5-119101818461312362
99-6-000311312151861211952100
8-5-2100
8.58-6-1056182112819178310
88-7-000012130104259121414117410000
7-6-25050
7.57-7-100500025122324188210
77-8-00030000012591316171511621000
6.56-8-100151122232111510
66-9-000001251017212015720
5-8-25050
5.55-9-1141321312191
55-10-000013920292711
4-9-25050
4.54-10-1025254028
44-11-0002113651
3.53-11-133265
33-12-0011485
2.52-12-1793
22-13-0397
1.51-13-1100
11-14-00100
0-0.5100
Total:11121325111222223333344444555678