SPORTS CLUB STATS

Your team’s chances of making the playoffs

Holy capitalism Batman,
we’re in the Wall Street Journal

New York Jets Playoff Chances 2015

Plays Cleveland, playoff odds up 5.9 to 43.4%

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How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

Week of 9/13	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Washington 33 Miami 10	+1.0		+0.1
New England 17 Pittsburgh 38	+0.6		+0.0
Tampa Bay 24 Tennessee 14	+0.3		+0.0
San Diego 35 Detroit 14	-0.2		-0.0
If winner is:HomeTieAway
NY Jets vs Cleveland	+7.5*+1.6-10.0		+0.9*+0.0-1.2
Buffalo vs Indianapolis	-1.2*+1.3+1.6		-0.1*-0.1+0.1
Jacksonville vs Carolina	-0.2*-1.5+0.3		-0.0*-0.1+0.0

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/20	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Indianapolis vs NY Jets	-7.7*+3.1+10.3		-0.9*+0.4+1.2
Jacksonville vs Miami	+0.8*+4.0-1.2		+0.1*+0.3-0.1
Buffalo vs New England	-0.5*+1.3+0.7		-0.0*+0.1+0.0
Pittsburgh vs San Francisco	-0.4*-3.0+0.5		-0.0*-0.4+0.1
Carolina vs Houston	+0.3*+1.0-0.4		+0.0*+0.2-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the NY Jets finish out the regular season. Explain

									100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TW		W	-	L	-	T	playoffs		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Count

16		16	-	0	-	0	In		100																67
15		15	-	1	-	0	In		100	0															210
14	.5	14	-	1	-	1	In		100																1
14		14	-	2	-	0	In		99	1															1,501
13	.5	13	-	2	-	1	In		100																18
13		13	-	3	-	0	In		92	8	0		0												7,174
12	.5	12	-	3	-	1	In		83	17															72
12		12	-	4	-	0	In		71	24	3	0	2	0											22,824
11	.5	11	-	4	-	1	In		57	32	7	0	3												219
11		11	-	5	-	0	100.0	%	34	42	15	2	7	0	0										53,364
10	.5	10	-	5	-	1	In		16	43	24	5	11	2											494
10		10	-	6	-	0	98.5		6	25	31	13	16	7	1	0	0								96,426
		9	-	5	-	2	In			50	50														2
9	.5	9	-	6	-	1	95.2		1	10	31	23	17	13	4	0									736
9		9	-	7	-	0	74.8		0	3	16	28	10	18	15	7	2	0	0	0					134,982
		8	-	6	-	2	75.0					50		25	25										4
8	.5	8	-	7	-	1	48.8			0	4	29	2	13	21	18	9	3	0						899
8		8	-	8	-	0	23.4			0	1	17	1	4	12	20	21	15	7	2	0	0	0		146,518
7	.5	7	-	8	-	1	8.2				0	8		0	3	8	20	27	21	9	3	0	0		918
7		7	-	9	-	0	3.8				0	4		0	0	2	8	17	24	23	14	6	1	0	125,081
		6	-	8	-	2	Out												50	50					4
6	.5	6	-	9	-	1	1.1					1					0	4	15	26	29	17	7	1	638
6		6	-	10	-	0	0.3					0				0	0	1	4	14	26	30	19	5	84,071
		5	-	9	-	2	Out														100				2
5	.5	5	-	10	-	1	Out												0	3	10	30	43	14	375
5		5	-	11	-	0	0.0					0						0	0	1	5	20	41	34	43,422
		4	-	10	-	2	Out																100		1
4	.5	4	-	11	-	1	Out														1	5	36	59	191
4		4	-	12	-	0	Out														0	3	24	73	17,258
3	.5	3	-	12	-	1	Out																12	88	49
3		3	-	13	-	0	Out															0	6	94	4,900
2	.5	2	-	13	-	1	Out																	100	11
2		2	-	14	-	0	Out																2	98	962
0	-1.5						Out																	100	190	*

Total:							43.4	%	7	8	9	11	5	5	5	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	5	5	743,584

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 9/13	100.0*	Lottery seed
Washington 33 Miami 10	-0.1
New England 17 Pittsburgh 38	+0.0
Tampa Bay 24 Tennessee 14	+0.0
San Diego 35 Detroit 14	+0.0
If winner is:HomeTieAway
NY Jets vs Cleveland	-1.8*-0.4+2.4
Buffalo vs Indianapolis	+0.1*-0.0-0.2
Oakland vs Cincinnati	-0.0*+0.4+0.1
Atlanta vs Philadelphia	+0.0*-0.0-0.1
Houston vs Kansas City	-0.0*-0.4+0.0

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/20	100.0*	Lottery seed
Indianapolis vs NY Jets	+1.9-1.3-2.5
Cleveland vs Tennessee	*-0.0+0.9+0.0
NY Giants vs Atlanta	-0.0-0.3+0.1
Buffalo vs New England	+0.1*-0.2-0.1
Jacksonville vs Miami	-0.1*-0.5+0.1
Oakland vs Baltimore	-0.1*-0.4+0.1
Washington vs St. Louis	-0.0*+0.3+0.1
Pittsburgh vs San Francisco	+0.0*+0.7-0.1
Carolina vs Houston	+0.0*-0.2-0.0
Green Bay vs Seattle	-0.0*-0.2+0.0
Chicago vs Arizona	-0.0*-0.1+0.0
New Orleans vs Tampa Bay	+0.0*+1.3-0.0
Cincinnati vs San Diego	+0.0*-0.1-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TW		W	-	L	-	T	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32

16		16	-	0	-	0	100
15		15	-	1	-	0	99	1	0
14	.5	14	-	1	-	1	100
14		14	-	2	-	0	97	2	1
13	.5	13	-	2	-	1	100
13		13	-	3	-	0	82	10	8	0	0				0
12	.5	12	-	3	-	1	69	14	17
12		12	-	4	-	0	45	27	23	1	3	0	0		2	0	0
11	.5	11	-	4	-	1	27	30	27	5	7		0		3
11		11	-	5	-	0	9	25	28	14	14	1	2	0	7	1	0		0
10	.5	10	-	5	-	1	0	15	17	26	21	2	5		9	1	2
10		10	-	6	-	0	0	6	6	20	18	13	12	1	10	6	6	1	1	0	0	0
		9	-	5	-	2				50	50
9	.5	9	-	6	-	1		1	0	10	10	22	18	5	5	11	11	2	4	1
9		9	-	7	-	0		0	0	3	2	14	15	13	2	8	8	10	8	9	5	2	1	0	0	0
		8	-	6	-	2							25	25			25			25
8	.5	8	-	7	-	1				0		4	8	21		2	1	12	8	17	13	9	3	0	0
8		8	-	8	-	0				0	0	1	2	15	0	1	0	4	1	3	6	10	13	14	13	9	5	2	0	0	0	0
7	.5	7	-	8	-	1						0	0	7				0			0	2	6	12	20	23	16	8	3	1	0
7		7	-	9	-	0						0	0	4				0		0	0	0	0	1	3	6	10	14	17	17	14	8	3	1	0	0	0
		6	-	8	-	2																					25		50			25
6	.5	6	-	9	-	1								1												0	1	4	10	19	25	21	11	5	2	0
6		6	-	10	-	0								0												0	0	0	1	3	8	14	20	23	18	9	3	0
		5	-	9	-	2																											100
5	.5	5	-	10	-	1																								0	1	2	12	19	30	23	10	2
5		5	-	11	-	0								0																0	0	0	2	7	17	30	30	13
		4	-	10	-	2																															100
4	.5	4	-	11	-	1																											1	1	8	20	47	24
4		4	-	12	-	0																											0	0	1	10	34	55
3	.5	3	-	12	-	1																														6	18	76
3		3	-	13	-	0																													0	1	12	87
2	.5	2	-	13	-	1																																100
2		2	-	14	-	0																															3	97
0	-1.5																																					100

Total:							3	3	4	4	4	5	5	6	2	2	2	3	2	2	2	2	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3