Jacksonville Jaguars Playoff Chances 2015 50/50

Plays Carolina, playoff odds up 1.2 to 38.6%
0-0-0

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 9/13100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Tampa Bay 24 Tennessee 14 +1.1
+0.1
San Diego 35 Detroit 14 -0.4
-0.1
Washington 33 Miami 10 +0.2
+0.0
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Jacksonville vs Carolina+7.2*-2.1-7.3
+0.8*-0.2-0.8
Buffalo vs Indianapolis+1.1*-8.6-1.0
+0.1*-0.7-0.1
Houston vs Kansas City-0.5*-7.5+0.5
-0.0*-0.9+0.0
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/20100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Jacksonville vs Miami+8.6*+5.3-8.7
+1.1*+0.6-1.1
Carolina vs Houston+1.1*+2.2-1.1
+0.1*+0.3-0.1
Indianapolis vs NY Jets-1.0*-4.9+1.0
-0.1*-0.5+0.1
Cleveland vs Tennessee+0.5*-1.5-0.5
Pittsburgh vs San Francisco-0.0*-0.5+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Jacksonville finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed
TWW-L-Tplayoffs12345678910111213141516Count
14.5-16In10090*
1414-2-0In991454
13.513-2-1In1003
1313-3-0In936002,089
12.512-3-1In8411519
1212-4-0In742120306,839
11.511-4-1In76172559
1111-5-0In373812111115,912
10.510-5-1In2235242152161
1010-6-098.2%624271022920029,317
9-5-2In1001
9.59-6-192.701124201917520246
99-7-069.80313201222189310042,116
8.58-7-140.8616316292181289
88-8-017.4011115132122167200046,618
7-7-225.0252525254
7.57-8-15.05382032211120320
77-9-01.80200281624241661041,656
6.56-9-11.3121226302160227
66-10-00.10001413253120629,427
5.55-10-1Out118303920135
55-11-0Out00518403616,053
4.54-11-1Out18306171
44-12-0Out00323746,433
3.53-12-1Out188217
33-13-0Out07932,086
2.52-13-1Out17836
22-14-0Out298414
0-1Out10090*
Total:38.6%6777666666666666241,152

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 9/13100.0*Lottery seed
Tampa Bay 24 Tennessee 14 -0.1
New England 17 Pittsburgh 38 +0.1
Washington 33 Miami 10 +0.1
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Jacksonville vs Carolina-2.0*+0.3+2.0
Buffalo vs Indianapolis-0.1*+1.3+0.1
Atlanta vs Philadelphia-0.1*+0.6+0.1
Houston vs Kansas City-0.0*+1.7+0.0
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/20100.0*Lottery seed
Jacksonville vs Miami-2.1*-1.4+2.1
Oakland vs Baltimore+0.1-1.5-0.1
Indianapolis vs NY Jets+0.1*+1.4-0.1
Carolina vs Houston-0.1*-0.5+0.1
Cincinnati vs San Diego+0.1*+0.9-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TWW-L-T1234567891011121314151617181920212223242526272829303132
1616-0-0100
1515-1-0991
14.514-1-1100
1414-2-09721
13.513-2-1100
1313-3-0858600
12.512-3-184115
1212-4-0492520120300
11.511-4-1364115225
1111-5-0112627111111010110
10.510-5-1220171821221412
1010-6-00661817109114881200
9-5-2100
9.59-6-1011817173712152520
99-7-00032111192101012121052100
8.58-7-166103115131619910
88-8-000129105259131414128410000
7-7-225252525
7.57-8-150161225221613200
77-9-000200001259131617151173100
6.56-9-111101826251451
66-10-00000251016202115820
5.55-10-119213222132
55-11-00003919292812
4.54-11-116233832
44-12-002103454
3.53-12-162471
33-13-011386
2.52-13-11783
22-14-0397
0-1100
Total:33333434333333333333333333333333