Houston Texans Playoff Chances 2015 50/50

Plays Kansas City, playoff odds up 0.8 to 38.4%
0-0-0

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 9/13100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Tampa Bay 24 Tennessee 14 +1.2
+0.1
Washington 33 Miami 10 +0.3
+0.0
San Diego 35 Detroit 14 -0.0
New England 17 Pittsburgh 38 -0.0
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Houston vs Kansas City+8.8*-0.6-8.7
+1.1*+0.5-1.1
Jacksonville vs Carolina-1.5*+0.1+1.5
-0.1*+0.4+0.1
Buffalo vs Indianapolis+0.8*-0.4-0.8
+0.1*-0.1-0.1
NY Jets vs Cleveland+0.0-0.2-0.0
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/20100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Carolina vs Houston-7.2*-6.9+7.2
-0.8-0.3+0.8
Jacksonville vs Miami-1.0*+6.5+1.0
-0.1*+0.4+0.1
Indianapolis vs NY Jets-0.9*+6.5+0.9
-0.1*+0.8+0.1
Cleveland vs Tennessee+0.6*+0.9-0.6
+0.0*+0.2-0.0
Pittsburgh vs San Francisco-0.1*+0.1+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Houston finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed
TWW-L-Tplayoffs12345678910111213141516Count
15-16In10074*
1414-2-0In991394
13.513-2-1In1004
1313-3-0In92711,926
12.512-3-1In10015
1212-4-0In742120306,531
11.511-4-1In56374479
1111-5-0100.0%3639121111016,029
10.510-5-1In1937183204154
1010-6-098.1624271022920029,474
9.59-6-188.52113013181411209
99-7-070.10314201222189300041,789
8.58-7-135.003143142826920297
88-8-017.201111513212216820047,080
7.57-8-15.14119183020142297
77-9-01.90200281724241661041,874
6.56-9-1Out0131128302051264
66-10-00.1001412263120629,345
5.55-10-1Out1111432321145
55-11-00.00001518403615,868
4-10-2Out1001
4.54-11-1Out222385761
44-12-0Out00224746,631
3.53-12-1Out10019
33-13-0Out06942,029
2.52-13-1Out1006
22-14-0Out199478
1.51-14-1Out1001
11-15-0Out29859
00-16-0Out10019
Total:38.4%6777666666666666241,152

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 9/13100.0*Lottery seed
Tampa Bay 24 Tennessee 14 -0.1
New England 17 Pittsburgh 38 +0.1
Washington 33 Miami 10 +0.0
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Houston vs Kansas City-2.1*-1.2+2.1
Atlanta vs Philadelphia-0.1-0.5+0.1
Jacksonville vs Carolina+0.1*-0.8-0.1
Buffalo vs Indianapolis-0.1+0.2+0.1
Arizona vs New Orleans+0.1*-1.2-0.1
NY Jets vs Cleveland-0.1*+0.3+0.1
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/20100.0*Lottery seed
Carolina vs Houston+2.0+0.5-2.0
Indianapolis vs NY Jets+0.1-1.7-0.1
Pittsburgh vs San Francisco+0.0-0.4-0.0
Kansas City vs Denver-0.1*+1.0+0.1
Cincinnati vs San Diego-0.1*+2.0+0.1
Jacksonville vs Miami+0.1*-1.1-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TWW-L-T1234567891011121314151617181920212223242526272829303132
15-16100
1414-2-09811
13.513-2-1100
1313-3-084971
12.512-3-16733
1212-4-0492520120300
11.511-4-1292734344
1111-5-0112527111111010110
10.510-5-1118211617131834
1010-6-00661817109113991200
9.59-6-12111218111810140110
99-7-000321211921010121110621000
8.58-7-10331132128231813310
88-8-00012910515912141512842000
7.57-8-1410022122126181040
77-9-0002000012481216171612731000
6.56-9-1022817282015520
66-10-00000014915202117930
5.55-10-1112232823101
55-11-000002719292913
4-10-2100
4.54-11-1211253033
44-12-000293455
3.53-12-1595
33-13-001288
2.52-13-1100
22-14-0199
1.51-14-1100
11-15-0397
00-16-0100
Total:33333434333323333333333333333333