Houston Texans Playoff Chances 2015

Plays Kansas City, playoff odds up 2.8 to 40.3%
0-0-0

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 9/13100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Tampa Bay 24 Tennessee 14 +1.0
+0.1
Washington 33 Miami 10 +0.3
+0.0
New England 17 Pittsburgh 38 -0.2
-0.0
San Diego 35 Detroit 14 -0.0
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Houston vs Kansas City+7.7*-2.7-10.3
+0.9*-0.4-1.2
Jacksonville vs Carolina-1.1*+1.5+1.5
-0.1*+0.1+0.1
Buffalo vs Indianapolis+0.8*-3.9-1.0
+0.1-0.4-0.1
NY Jets vs Cleveland+0.2*-1.9-0.3
+0.0*-0.2-0.0
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/20100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Carolina vs Houston-6.3*+1.1+8.4
-0.7*+0.3+0.9
Jacksonville vs Miami-0.8*+3.0+1.3
-0.1*+0.2+0.1
Indianapolis vs NY Jets-0.8*+5.5+1.1
-0.1*+0.5+0.1
Pittsburgh vs San Francisco-0.4*+0.7+0.6
-0.0+0.0+0.1
Cleveland vs Tennessee+0.3*-0.6-0.4
+0.0*-0.1-0.0
Cincinnati vs San Diego+0.0*-0.1-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Houston finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed
TWW-L-Tplayoffs12345678910111213141516Count
1616-0-0In10071
1515-1-0In991194
14.514-1-1In1002
1414-2-0In98101,464
13.513-2-1In10017
1313-3-0In927006,785
12-2-2In1001
12.512-3-1In84131379
1212-4-0In7223203021,816
11.511-4-1In5140440212
1111-5-0100.0%3440131111052,665
10.510-5-199.818372321730470
1010-6-098.0624281021920094,908
9-5-2In2550254
9.59-6-192.111028161720710745
99-7-070.303142012221893000133,713
8-6-2In1001
8.58-7-140.3041831524231020979
88-8-017.40111151422221672000146,455
7-7-2Out57437
7.57-8-15.450210203122820944
77-9-01.9020002817252314610126,642
6-8-2Out50502
6.56-9-10.61051426292060720
66-10-00.10001514263019585,096
5-9-2Out1001
5.55-10-1Out315303913416
55-11-00.0001520413344,653
4.54-11-1Out63955188
44-12-0Out003247317,765
3.53-12-1Out109052
33-13-0Out07935,265
2.52-13-1Out1006
22-14-0Out1991,034
0-1.5Out100212*
Total:40.3%6778666666666665743,584

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 9/13100.0*Lottery seed
New England 17 Pittsburgh 38 +0.1
Tampa Bay 24 Tennessee 14 -0.1
Washington 33 Miami 10 +0.0
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Houston vs Kansas City-1.8*+0.6+2.4
Buffalo vs Indianapolis-0.1+0.7+0.1
Jacksonville vs Carolina+0.1*-0.5-0.1
Oakland vs Cincinnati+0.1*+0.1-0.1
NY Jets vs Cleveland-0.1*+0.4+0.1
Arizona vs New Orleans+0.1*+0.0-0.1
Atlanta vs Philadelphia-0.1*+0.3+0.1
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/20100.0*Lottery seed
Carolina vs Houston+1.7-0.8-2.3
Indianapolis vs NY Jets+0.1-1.0-0.1
Kansas City vs Denver-0.0+0.5+0.1
Buffalo vs New England+0.0+0.4-0.0
Cincinnati vs San Diego-0.1*+0.0+0.1
Jacksonville vs Miami+0.1*-0.2-0.1
NY Giants vs Atlanta+0.1*-0.7-0.1
Pittsburgh vs San Francisco+0.0*-0.2-0.0
Cleveland vs Tennessee+0.0*+0.2-0.0
Chicago vs Arizona+0.0*-0.2-0.0
Green Bay vs Seattle-0.0*+0.9+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TWW-L-T1234567891011121314151617181920212223242526272829303132
1616-0-0100
1515-1-0991
14.514-1-1100
1414-2-096310
13.513-2-1100
1313-3-080127000
12-2-2100
12.512-3-170141313
1212-4-04527221200300
11.511-4-124283454040
1111-5-092526141211010110
10.510-5-11161324194214330
1010-6-00551916129112881200
9-5-2255025
9.59-6-11010919133512173710
99-7-0003212101021010121010621000
8-6-2100
8.58-7-1004414032137181910410
88-8-0001290105147111415149520000
7-7-22929141414
7.57-8-1050001414242317730
77-9-00020000001471115181713731000
6-8-25050
6.56-9-11251319222113410
66-10-00000014915212217820
5-9-2100
5.55-10-101415222520120
55-11-000012819302812
4.54-11-16273928
44-12-002103552
3.53-12-121979
33-13-0011486
2.52-13-11783
22-14-0298
1.51-14-1100
11-15-0199
00-16-0100
Total:33343434333323333333333333333333