Denver Broncos Playoff Chances 2015

Plays Baltimore, playoff odds down 2 to 35.6%
0-0-0

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 9/13100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
San Diego 35 Detroit 14 -1.0
-0.1
Tampa Bay 24 Tennessee 14 +0.3
+0.0
Washington 33 Miami 10 +0.3
+0.0
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Denver vs Baltimore+7.6*-1.7-10.1
+0.9*-0.2-1.2
Oakland vs Cincinnati-0.5*-1.2+0.6
-0.0*-0.2+0.1
Houston vs Kansas City+0.4*+1.4-0.5
Jacksonville vs Carolina-0.3*-1.2+0.4
-0.0*+0.1+0.0
Buffalo vs Indianapolis-0.0*+0.1+0.0
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/20100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Kansas City vs Denver-8.9*+3.9+12.0
-1.0*+0.3+1.3
Cincinnati vs San Diego+0.6*+0.8-0.7
+0.0*+0.0-0.1
Oakland vs Baltimore-0.4*-0.8+0.5
Pittsburgh vs San Francisco-0.3*+0.2+0.5
Carolina vs Houston+0.2*-4.5-0.3
+0.0*-0.7-0.0
Cleveland vs Tennessee+0.0*+0.2-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Denver finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed
TWW-L-Tplayoffs12345678910111213141516Count
14.5-16In100218*
1414-2-0In99101,204
13.513-2-1In10017
1313-3-0In945015,753
12.512-3-1In8510561
1212-4-0In7419205019,353
11.511-4-1In642737220
1111-5-0100.0%3534111181047,748
10.510-5-1In2133181233431
1010-6-097.46202273013200089,517
9-5-2In50502
9.59-6-191.0172210312081689
99-7-064.30210121426221030000129,712
8-6-2In20805
8.58-7-135.10394192924921976
88-8-011.7015151423241782000146,135
7-7-2Out3333333
7.57-8-12.20203112128239200986
77-9-00.601002817252415610130,971
6-8-2Out1001
6.56-9-10.100041327312040743
66-10-00.00001414263119591,022
5-9-2Out1001
5.55-10-1Out0213333616463
55-11-0Out0001521413249,092
4.54-11-1Out00103753213
44-12-0Out04267020,182
3-11-2Out50502
3.53-12-1Out59557
33-13-0Out08926,235
2-12-2Out1001
2.52-13-1Out10017
22-14-0Out1991,320
1.51-14-1Out1003
11-15-0Out199166
0.50-15-1Out1002
00-16-0Out29863
Total:35.6%6554877777666666743,584

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 9/13100.0*Lottery seed
San Diego 35 Detroit 14 +0.1
San Francisco 28 Minnesota 21 +0.1
Washington 33 Miami 10 -0.0
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Denver vs Baltimore-1.8*+0.2+2.4
Buffalo vs Indianapolis+0.1*-0.3-0.1
NY Jets vs Cleveland+0.1*+0.1-0.1
Houston vs Kansas City+0.0*-0.2-0.0
Oakland vs Cincinnati+0.0*+0.2-0.0
Jacksonville vs Carolina+0.0*-0.2-0.0
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/20100.0*Lottery seed
Kansas City vs Denver+1.9*-0.8-2.6
Carolina vs Houston-0.0+1.4+0.0
Indianapolis vs NY Jets-0.1-0.3+0.1
Green Bay vs Seattle-0.1*+0.0+0.1
Buffalo vs New England+0.0*-0.9-0.1
Cleveland vs Tennessee-0.1*-0.6+0.1
Chicago vs Arizona-0.1*+0.8+0.1
Cincinnati vs San Diego-0.1*-0.1+0.1
Pittsburgh vs San Francisco-0.0*-0.2+0.1
Oakland vs Baltimore+0.0*-0.1-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TWW-L-T1234567891011121314151617181920212223242526272829303132
14.5-16100
1414-2-097310
13.513-2-1100
1313-3-082115001
12.512-3-1778105
1212-4-04529181200500
11.511-4-1293525237
1111-5-0827221210110162100
10.510-5-12191518153101943
1010-6-00541512106117131122000
9-5-25050
9.59-6-1107616911021146810
99-7-0002186621211151512621000
8-6-22080
8.58-7-10337411811211810410
88-8-0001150105261115161512741000
7-7-23367
7.57-8-1002001251623231682000
77-9-0001000013610141717141052100
6-8-2100
6.56-9-1001151119252112410
66-10-00001261218211913620
5-9-2100
5.55-10-10141221292382
55-11-000014112230249
4.54-11-1017253927
44-12-0003133747
3-11-25050
3.53-12-11288
33-13-0011683
2-12-2100
2.52-13-1100
22-14-0397
1.51-14-1100
11-15-0199
0.50-15-1100
00-16-0298
Total:33232322443433333333333333333333