"...per the brilliant Sports Club Stats"
(thank you Mr. Dater)

Buffalo Bills Playoff Chances 2015

Plays Indianapolis, playoff odds up 6.1 to 43.6%
0-0-0

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 9/13100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Washington 33 Miami 10 +1.0
+0.1
New England 17 Pittsburgh 38 +0.6
San Diego 35 Detroit 14 *-0.2
-0.0
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Buffalo vs Indianapolis+7.5*-5.8-10.1
+0.9*-0.5-1.2
NY Jets vs Cleveland-0.9*-6.2+1.2
-0.1*-0.6+0.1
Jacksonville vs Carolina-0.3*+4.1+0.4
-0.0+0.3+0.1
Houston vs Kansas City+0.0*-0.2-0.0
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/20100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Buffalo vs New England+8.5*-2.6-13.3
+0.9*-0.3-1.5
Indianapolis vs NY Jets+1.2*+1.3-1.7
+0.1*-0.1-0.1
Jacksonville vs Miami+0.7*+0.4-1.2
+0.0*+0.0-0.1
Pittsburgh vs San Francisco-0.2*-0.8+0.3
-0.0*-0.1+0.0
Carolina vs Houston+0.0*-0.2-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Buffalo finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed
TWW-L-Tplayoffs12345678910111213141516Count
1616-0-0In10068
1515-1-0In991161
14.514-1-1In1003
1414-2-0In9911,544
13.513-2-1In10014
1313-3-0In927007,098
12.512-3-1In8712169
1212-4-0In7224202022,795
11.511-4-1In563654242
1111-5-0100.0%344115270054,229
10-4-2In1001
10.510-5-1In1645215103463
1010-6-098.5625321316710096,902
9.59-6-192.41112922131671759
99-7-074.903172710181572000134,804
8-6-225.02550254
8.58-7-146.1052531223181030935
88-8-023.70117141220211572000146,012
7-7-2Out50502
7.57-8-17.470182228221020864
77-9-03.8040002817242315610125,719
6-8-2Out5025254
6.56-9-11.010051327281950682
66-10-00.30001413263020583,498
5-9-2Out50502
5.55-10-1Out1312313816385
55-11-00.0001519413543,354
4.54-11-1Out1113256171
44-12-0Out003237416,784
3.53-12-1Out138840
33-13-0Out06944,854
2.52-13-1Out89212
22-14-0Out199919
0-1.5Out100191*
Total:43.6%78911555666666655743,584

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 9/13100.0*Lottery seed
Washington 33 Miami 10 -0.1
Tampa Bay 24 Tennessee 14 +0.0
San Diego 35 Detroit 14 +0.0
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Buffalo vs Indianapolis-1.9+0.7+2.5
Houston vs Kansas City-0.0+0.4+0.0
Atlanta vs Philadelphia+0.1*-1.7-0.1
Oakland vs Cincinnati+0.1*+0.7-0.1
NY Jets vs Cleveland+0.1*+1.1-0.1
Jacksonville vs Carolina-0.0*-0.7+0.0
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/20100.0*Lottery seed
Buffalo vs New England-1.9+0.2+2.9
NY Giants vs Atlanta-0.0-0.3+0.1
Indianapolis vs NY Jets-0.1+0.1+0.2
Green Bay vs Seattle-0.0-0.3+0.0
Washington vs St. Louis-0.1*+0.5+0.1
Jacksonville vs Miami-0.1*-0.1+0.1
Cleveland vs Tennessee+0.1+0.1-0.1
Cincinnati vs San Diego-0.1*-0.1+0.1
Kansas City vs Denver-0.0*+0.2+0.0
Carolina vs Houston+0.0*+0.2-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TWW-L-T1234567891011121314151617181920212223242526272829303132
1616-0-0100
1515-1-0991
14.514-1-1100
1414-2-09621
13.513-2-18614
1313-3-081117000
12.512-3-1789121
1212-4-0452723120200
11.511-4-1263032454
1111-5-09252714141207100
10-4-2100
10.510-5-121418271835913
1010-6-006619181412110661100
9.59-6-110118211834912471
99-7-0003214141328810895210000
8-6-225252525
8.58-7-10571831111015169310
88-8-000121510413691315139521000
7-7-25050
7.57-8-1160027122022178300
77-9-00040000001361014171814831000
6-8-2502525
6.56-9-11014122024211241
66-10-0000013814202318930
5-9-2100
5.55-10-1141218322471
55-11-000002718303014
4.54-11-115264424
44-12-00193455
3.53-12-151878
33-13-0011188
2.52-13-11783
22-14-0397
0-1.5100
Total:34444556222322223333333333333333