Baltimore Ravens Playoff Chances 2015

Plays at Denver, playoff odds down 2.5 to 34.9%
0-0-0

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 9/13100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
New England 17 Pittsburgh 38 -0.7
Washington 33 Miami 10 +0.3
+0.0
Tampa Bay 24 Tennessee 14 +0.3
+0.0
San Diego 35 Detroit 14 -0.3
-0.0
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Denver vs Baltimore-7.8*-1.1+10.4
-0.9*+0.0+1.2
Oakland vs Cincinnati+0.4*-1.5-0.6
+0.0*+0.2-0.0
Jacksonville vs Carolina-0.4*-1.6+0.5
-0.0*-0.2+0.1
NY Jets vs Cleveland+0.3*+1.7-0.4
Houston vs Kansas City-0.0*+0.2+0.0
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/20100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Oakland vs Baltimore-7.8*+4.4+10.4
-0.9*+0.2+1.2
Pittsburgh vs San Francisco-1.0*+0.1+1.5
-0.1*+0.2+0.1
Cincinnati vs San Diego-0.4*-1.3+0.5
-0.0*+0.0+0.1
Cleveland vs Tennessee-0.3*-1.9+0.5
-0.0*-0.2+0.0
Carolina vs Houston+0.3*-3.2-0.4
+0.0*-0.3-0.0
Buffalo vs New England+0.0-0.3-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Baltimore finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed
TWW-L-Tplayoffs12345678910111213141516Count
15-16In100219*
1414-2-0In99101,112
13.513-2-1In10015
1313-3-0In945015,299
12.512-3-1In917254
1212-4-0In7519105018,114
11-3-2In1001
11.511-4-1In632549187
1111-5-0100.0%3734101171045,411
10.510-5-1In2032172254419
1010-6-097.7721226301220086,185
9-5-2In1001
9.59-6-192.8072010312470670
99-7-066.5021012152621103000127,150
8-6-2In1001
8.58-7-131.703851531241031905
88-8-012.601516152423167200146,368
7-7-2Out1001
7.57-8-11.210192331221020908
77-9-00.7010003918252314510133,063
6-8-2Out1733506
6.56-9-1Out0141624301950727
66-10-00.00001514273019594,166
5.55-10-1Out0315304012426
55-11-0Out01521413151,753
4-10-2Out1001
4.54-11-1Out183755200
44-12-0Out0004267021,766
3.53-12-1Out79383
33-13-0Out08926,736
2.52-13-1Out148614
22-14-0Out2981,378
0-1.5Out100245*
Total:34.9%6554777777766666743,584

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 9/13100.0*Lottery seed
San Francisco 28 Minnesota 21 -0.1
San Diego 35 Detroit 14 -0.0
Washington 33 Miami 10 +0.0
New England 17 Pittsburgh 38 -0.0
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Denver vs Baltimore+1.8+0.1-2.4
Arizona vs New Orleans-0.1*+0.3+0.1
Houston vs Kansas City+0.1*-0.1-0.1
NY Jets vs Cleveland+0.1*-0.1-0.1
Jacksonville vs Carolina-0.0*+0.2+0.0
Oakland vs Cincinnati-0.0*-0.3+0.0
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/20100.0*Lottery seed
Oakland vs Baltimore+1.8*-0.1-2.4
Pittsburgh vs San Francisco+0.1*-0.3-0.1
Cleveland vs Tennessee-0.1*+0.4+0.1
Chicago vs Arizona+0.1*-0.1-0.1
Green Bay vs Seattle+0.0*+0.6-0.1
Washington vs St. Louis+0.0*+0.3-0.1
Carolina vs Houston-0.0*+0.6+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TWW-L-T1234567891011121314151617181920212223242526272829303132
15-16100
1414-2-096310
13.513-2-1937
1313-3-08212501
12.512-3-1801172
1212-4-04629181100500
11-3-2100
11.511-4-1263720449
1111-5-09282212911162100
10.510-5-1119151814322144
1010-6-0064171210611712111200
9-5-2100
9.59-6-100761491102221370
99-7-0002196621311151710410000
8-6-2100
8.58-7-100326521310222011410
88-8-000115010639151716128521000
7-7-2100
7.57-8-11001712232418930
77-9-0001000001491417171511731000
6-8-23317171717
6.56-9-116121726211241
66-10-00000149152020169410
5.55-10-10514262619101
55-11-000015142428207
4-10-2100
4.54-11-147174430
44-12-00004163842
3.53-12-122375
33-13-0011881
2.52-13-12179
22-14-00496
1.51-14-1100
11-15-0199
00-16-0100
Total:23232322343444443333433333333333