"...per the brilliant Sports Club Stats" (thank you Mr. Dater) |
Mastodons Black Playoff Chances 2019
Lost to Sled Dogs C2 4-5, playoff odds up 12.5 to 36.3%
20 points 9 8-0 2
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How are these numbers calculated?
Big Games
How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain
| Week of 3/14 | 100.0* | Chance in playoffs | 100.0* | Average seed |
| Moose C2 3 Northern Gators 2 | +14.7 | +0.0 | ||
| Northern Gators 3 Sharks 0 | -11.8 | -0.1 | ||
| Mastodons Black 4 Sled Dogs C2 5 | -8.6 | -0.2 | ||
| Chaos C2 4 Mastodons Black 7 | +5.9 | +0.2 | ||
| Fighting Loons 3 Chaos C2 4 (ot) | *+0.1 | +0.0 | ||
| If winner is:HomeHome OTTieAway OTAway | ||||
| Week of 3/23 | 100.0* | Chance in playoffs | 100.0* | Average seed |
| Northern Gators vs Mastodons Black | OutOut+24.9InIn | -0.6-0.0+0.6+1.0+1.0 | ||
| Mastodons Blue vs Moose C2 | -5.4-5.5-5.5+3.5+3.5 | +0.3+0.3+0.3-0.2-0.2 | ||
* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.
What If
Chances based on how well the Mastodons Black finish out the regular season. Explain
| 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | |||||||||||||
| If finish: | Chance in | Chance will finish regular season at seed | |||||||||||||||||||||
| TP | W | L | - | OT | T | playoffs | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | Count | |||||
| 22 | 1 | 0 | - | 0 | 0 | In | 100 | 7,631,652 | |||||||||||||||
| 21 | 0 | 0 | - | 0 | 1 | 61.2 | % | 61 | 39 | 2,200,432 | |||||||||||||
| 0 | 0 | - | 1 | 0 | Out | 100 | 759,524 | ||||||||||||||||
| 20 | 0 | 1 | - | 0 | 0 | Out | 39 | 61 | 14,141,372 | ||||||||||||||
| Total: | 36.3 | % | 36 | 29 | 35 | 24,732,980 | |||||||||||||||||
Points
Chance Will Make Playoffs
Lottery
Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.
Big Games
| Week of 3/14 | 100.0* | Lottery seed |
| Mastodons Black 4 Sled Dogs C2 5 | +0.6 | |
| Chaos C2 4 Mastodons Black 7 | -0.5 | |
| Fighting Loons 4 Norsemen C2 3 | -0.2 | |
| Wolf-Rayets C2 6 Minnesota Mild 4 | +0.2 | |
| Rebellion 1 Wolf-Rayets C2 2 | +0.1 | |
| Northern Gators 3 Sharks 0 | +0.1 | |
| Minnesota Mild 2 Hooligans C2 2 | -0.1 | |
| Shame on Ice C2 5 Silverbacks 1 | +0.1 | |
| Troopers C2 6 Roadrunners 1 | -0.1 | |
| Norsemen C2 1 Troopers C2 4 | -0.0 | |
| Fighting Loons 3 Chaos C2 4 (ot) | -0.0 | |
| If winner is:HomeHome OTTieAway OTAway | ||
| Roadrunners vs Shame on Ice C2 | +0.3+0.3+0.1+0.1-0.2 | |
| If winner is:HomeHome OTTieAway OTAway | ||
| Week of 3/23 | 100.0* | Lottery seed |
| Northern Gators vs Mastodons Black | +1.0+0.0-0.8-1.6-1.6 | |
| Mastodons Blue vs Moose C2 | -0.3-0.3-0.3+0.2+0.2 | |
| Shame on Ice C2 vs Norsemen C2 | -0.2-0.1-0.1+0.2+0.2 | |
| Rebellion vs Roadrunners | -0.2-0.1-0.0+0.1+0.1 | |
What If
| 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | |||||||||
| If finish: | Chance will finish season at seed | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| TP | W | L | - | OT | T | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | |||
| 22 | 1 | 0 | - | 0 | 0 | 7 | 59 | 34 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| 21 | 0 | 0 | - | 0 | 1 | 24 | 46 | 26 | 4 | |||||||||||||||||||||
| 0 | 0 | - | 1 | 0 | 23 | 61 | 15 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| 20 | 0 | 1 | - | 0 | 0 | 27 | 54 | 19 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Total: | 2 | 20 | 15 | 19 | 32 | 11 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
Updated Tuesday, 2023-11-7 12:48 PM Eastern (GMT-05:00)
