Campeonato Brasileiro - Serie A Title Chances 2018

														100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
Chance will win title											Libertadores			Chance will finish season at seed																						Serie B
	P	G	W	-	D	-	L	GD	%	Change	%	Change		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	Avg.	Change	%	Change		RPI	Strength

Palmeiras	77	1	22	-	11	-	4	37	Yes		Yes			100																				1.0		No			1	.667	Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras
Flamengo	72	1	21	-	9	-	7	31	No		Yes				100																			2.0		No			3	.627	Clube de Regatas do Flamengo
Internacional	68	1	19	-	11	-	7	22	No		Yes					100																		3.0		No			2	.595	Sport Club Internacional
Gremio	63	1	17	-	12	-	8	20	No		Yes		+30.7				100																	4.0	+0.31	No			5	.555	Gremio Foot-Ball Porto Alegrense

Sao Paulo	63		16	-	15	-	7	12	No		No		-30.7					100																5.0	-0.31	No			4	.543	Sao Paulo Futebol Clube
Atletico-MG	56	1	16	-	8	-	13	12	No		No								85	15														6.1		No			6	.499	Clube Atletico Mineiro
Atletico-PR	54	1	15	-	9	-	13	16	No		No								15	66	20													7.0		No			10	.483	Clube Atletico Paranaense
Cruzeiro	52	1	14	-	10	-	13	0	No		No									20	43	29	9											8.3		No			9	.467	Cruzeiro Esporte Clube
Botafogo	51	1	13	-	12	-	12	-7	No		No										20	41	39											9.2		No			7	.459	Botafogo de Futebol e Regatas
Santos	50	1	13	-	11	-	13	7	No		No										18	30	48	4										9.4		No			8	.451	Santos Futebol Clube
Bahia	47	1	12	-	11	-	14	-2	No		No												4	86	10									11.1		No			11	.427	Esporte Clube Bahia
Corinthians	44	1	11	-	11	-	15	0	No		No													10	90	0								11.9	+0.81	No			12	.403	Sport Club Corinthians Paulista
Chapecoense	44		11	-	11	-	16	-16	No		No														0	100								13.0	+3.12	No		-49.1	15	.393	Associacao Chapecoense de Futebol
Ceara	44		10	-	14	-	14	-6	No		No																100							14.0	-0.33	No			13	.393	Ceara Sporting Club
America-MG	43		11	-	10	-	17	-15	No		No																	100						15.0	+1.17	No		-56.9	14	.385	America Futebol Clube-MG
Vasco da Gama	43		10	-	13	-	15	-7	No		No																		100					16.0	-1.32	No		-9.6	18	.385	Club de Regatas Vasco da Gama

Fluminense	42		11	-	9	-	18	-16	No		No																			93	7			17.1	-2.86	Yes		+92.0	16	.377	Fluminense Football Club
Sport Recife	39	1	10	-	9	-	18	-23	No		No																			7	85	8		18.0	-0.58	Yes		+23.7	17	.362	Sport Club do Recife
Vitoria	37	1	9	-	10	-	18	-26	No		No																				8	92		18.9	-0.02	Yes			19	.346	Esporte Clube Vitoria
Parana	22	1	4	-	10	-	23	-39	No		No																						100	20.0		Yes			20	.226	Parana Clube

Big Games

Who should we root for? Explain

Week of 11/17
Palmeiras 4 America-MG 0
9:45 PM Wed	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Palmeiras	+4.4
Flamengo	-2.8
Gremio	No
Chapecoense					-2.5
Ceara					-1.8
America-MG					+10.6		-0.5
Vasco da Gama					-2.7
Sport Recife					-2.2

Flamengo 2 Gremio 0
9:45 PM Wed	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Palmeiras	-4.0
Flamengo	+4.4		Yes				+0.4
Gremio	No		-18.0				-0.4
Sao Paulo			+12.0

Botafogo 1 Internacional 0
5:00 PM Sun	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Palmeiras	+3.9
Internacional	-4.1		-1.0				-0.3
Botafogo					No		+1.0

Parana 1 Palmeiras 1
5:00 PM Sun	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Palmeiras	-4.0		*Yes
Internacional	+3.2
Sao Paulo	No

Internacional 1 Atletico-MG 2
7:30 PM Wed	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Internacional	-1.7		-6.0				-0.5

Sport Recife 0 Flamengo 1
5:00 PM Sun	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Flamengo	+0.7		+4.1				+0.3
Chapecoense					-2.0
Vasco da Gama					-2.9
Sport Recife					+9.4		-0.6

Gremio 2 Chapecoense 0
7:00 PM Sun	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Gremio			+13.6				+0.2
Sao Paulo			-11.9
Atletico-PR			No
Cruzeiro			No
Chapecoense					+11.5		-0.6
America-MG					-2.8
Vasco da Gama					-2.5
Sport Recife					-2.8

Vasco da Gama 2 Sao Paulo 0
8:00 PM Thu	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Internacional			+4.4				+0.2
Gremio			+21.8				+0.3
Sao Paulo			-26.3				-0.5
Chapecoense					+7.6		-0.2
America-MG					+8.1		-0.2
Vasco da Gama					-25.9		+1.3
Sport Recife					+5.6		-0.3

Sao Paulo 1 Cruzeiro 0
7:00 PM Sun	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Gremio			-13.8
Sao Paulo			+16.1				+0.3
Atletico-PR			No
Cruzeiro			No				-0.5

Atletico-MG 1 Bahia 0
9:00 PM Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Bahia							-0.7

Chapecoense 2 Sport Recife 1
9:00 PM Thu	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Chapecoense					-32.0		+1.2
Sport Recife					+27.0		-1.1

America-MG 2 Santos 1
5:00 PM Sun	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
America-MG					-16.2		+0.8

Corinthians 1 Vasco da Gama 0
7:00 PM Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Corinthians					-7.8		+1.2
Vasco da Gama					+15.6		-1.0

Vitoria 1 Atletico-PR 2
7:00 PM Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Chapecoense					-2.8
Ceara					-2.6
Vasco da Gama					-2.9
Sport Recife					-2.8
Vitoria					+13.8		-0.6

Ceara 1 Parana 0
9:00 PM Thu	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Chapecoense					+3.6
Ceara					-12.5		+0.8
America-MG					+3.9

Cruzeiro 3 Vitoria 0
9:45 PM Wed	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Vasco da Gama					-2.4
Vitoria					+10.3		-0.5

Bahia 2 Fluminense 0
9:00 PM Thu	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Bahia					No		+0.9
Fluminense					+0.7		-0.9

Atletico-PR 1 Corinthians 0
9:45 PM Wed	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Corinthians					+0.1		-0.6

Santos 1 Botafogo 1
9:00 PM Wed	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Santos							-0.2

Week of 11/25
Cruzeiro 0 Flamengo 2
5:00 PM Sun	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Palmeiras	-3.1
Flamengo	+3.1

Vasco da Gama 0 Palmeiras 1
5:00 PM Sun	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Palmeiras	Yes
Flamengo	No
Vasco da Gama					+3.1		-0.5

Sao Paulo 0 Sport Recife 0
8:00 PM Mon	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Gremio			+22.1				+0.2
Sao Paulo			-22.1				-0.2
Chapecoense					-1.2
Ceara					No
America-MG					-1.8
Vasco da Gama					+1.6
Sport Recife					+1.9		-0.2

Vitoria 0 Gremio 0
5:00 PM Sun	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Gremio			-13.0				-0.2
Sao Paulo			+12.2
Vitoria					+2.0		-0.2

Internacional 2 Fluminense 0
7:00 PM Sun	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Internacional			Yes				+0.2
Fluminense					+2.4		-0.6

America-MG 1 Bahia 0
7:00 PM Sun	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Chapecoense					+8.9		-0.2
America-MG					-24.5		+1.1

Corinthians 0 Chapecoense 0
7:00 PM Sun	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Corinthians					-0.2		-0.2
Chapecoense					+6.2		-0.5
America-MG					+1.9
Sport Recife					-3.2

Atletico-PR 2 Ceara 2
5:00 PM Sun	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Ceara					-1.9

Week of 12/2
Chapecoense 1 Sao Paulo 0
Sun	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Gremio			Yes				+0.3
Sao Paulo			No				-0.3
Chapecoense					No		+2.0
America-MG					+8.1		-0.4
Vasco da Gama					+12.9		-0.5
Fluminense					+14.8		-0.4
Sport Recife					+13.4		-0.2

Fluminense 0 America-MG 1
Sun	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Chapecoense					+24.2		-0.3
America-MG					No		+1.9
Vasco da Gama					+11.1
Fluminense					+14.9		-1.8
Sport Recife					+6.8

Ceara 1 Vasco da Gama 1
Sun	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Vasco da Gama					No		-0.6
Fluminense					+4.6
Sport Recife					+4.7

* A starred outcome could have no effect or just a really small effect. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Thank you Marcos Vilhena for adding this league.