Campeonato Brasileiro - Serie A Title Chances 2017

														100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
Chance will win title											Libertadores			Chance will finish season at seed																						Serie B
	P	G	W	-	D	-	L	GD	%	Change	%	Change		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	Avg.	Change	%	Change		RPI	Strength

Corinthians	72		21	-	9	-	7	21	Yes		Yes			100																				1.0		No			1	.627	Sport Club Corinthians Paulista
Palmeiras	63		19	-	6	-	12	19	No		Yes				61	27	12																	2.5	+0.55	No			3	.555	Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras
Gremio	62		18	-	8	-	11	20	No		Yes				23	40	37																	3.1	-0.28	No			4	.547	Gremio Foot-Ball Porto Alegrense
Santos	62		17	-	11	-	9	10	No		Yes				16	33	51																	3.4	-0.27	No			2	.547	Santos Futebol Clube
Cruzeiro	56		15	-	11	-	11	8	No		Yes							83	16	1														5.2	+0.17	No			5	.499	Cruzeiro Esporte Clube
Flamengo	53		14	-	11	-	12	10	No		88.9	%	+4.3					16	33	19	21	10	2											6.8	+0.19	No			7	.475	Clube de Regatas do Flamengo

Vasco da Gama	53		14	-	11	-	12	-8	No		82.0		+5.3					1	29	31	21	15	3											7.3	+0.26	No			6	.475	Club de Regatas Vasco da Gama
Botafogo	52		14	-	10	-	13	3	No		55.3		-19.7						11	21	22	24	17	4										8.3	-0.93	No			11	.467	Botafogo de Futebol e Regatas

Chapecoense	51		14	-	9	-	14	-3	No		41.3		+2.0						8	19	14	11	25	19	4									9.0	+0.10	No			9	.459	Associacao Chapecoense de Futebol
Atletico-MG	51		13	-	12	-	12	2	No		23.6		+3.1						2	9	12	9	19	39	10									9.9	+0.08	No			10	.459	Clube Atletico Mineiro
Bahia	49		13	-	10	-	14	2	No		5.3		+3.1								5	15	13	20	31	15								11.0	+0.09	No			13	.443	Esporte Clube Bahia
Sao Paulo	49		13	-	10	-	14	-1	No		3.7		+1.9								4	16	16	4	33	27								11.3	+0.06	No			8	.443	Sao Paulo Futebol Clube
Atletico-PR	48		13	-	9	-	15	-1	No		No											1	7	14	21	38	20							12.5	-0.02	No			12	.435	Clube Atletico Paranaense
Fluminense	46		11	-	13	-	13	-3	No		No															20	63	14	3					14.0		No			14	.419	Fluminense Football Club
Vitoria	43		11	-	10	-	16	-7	No		No																10	39	33	16	3			15.6		18.6	%	-0.0	16	.395	Esporte Clube Vitoria
Coritiba	43		11	-	10	-	16	-8	No		No																8	28	39	21	4			15.8		24.7		+0.0	18	.395	Coritiba Football Club

Sport Recife	42		11	-	9	-	17	-13	No		No																	10	13	38	32	7		17.1		76.6		+0.0	17	.387	Sport Club do Recife
Avai	42		10	-	12	-	15	-19	No		No																	9	11	17	48	14		17.5		80.2			15	.387	Avai Futebol Clube
Ponte Preta	39		10	-	9	-	18	-14	No		No																			8	14	78		18.7		Yes			20	.363	Associacao Atletica Ponte Preta
Atletico-GO	35		9	-	8	-	20	-18	No		No																						100	20.0		Yes			19	.331	Atletico Clube Goianiense

Big Games

Who should we root for? Explain

Week of 11/19
Flamengo 3 Corinthians 0
5:00 PM Sun	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Flamengo	+28.8				+1.4
Vasco da Gama	-6.6				-0.2
Botafogo	-4.8				-0.2
Chapecoense	-4.8				-0.2
Bahia	-6.0				-0.2

Atletico-PR 3 Vasco da Gama 1
7:00 PM Sun	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Flamengo	+4.1
Vasco da Gama	-23.6				-1.1
Bahia	+3.4
Atletico-PR	+8.3		No		+1.4

Sport Recife 1 Bahia 0
5:00 PM Sun	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Flamengo	+5.3				+0.2
Vasco da Gama	+5.6				+0.2
Chapecoense	+3.4
Bahia	-22.7				-1.1
Sport Recife			-7.7		+0.7

Atletico-GO 1 Chapecoense 1
5:00 PM Sun	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Flamengo	+2.3
Vasco da Gama	+2.0
Chapecoense	-11.3				-0.6
Bahia	+3.1
Atletico-GO			+0.3

Atletico-MG 3 Coritiba 0
7:00 PM Sun	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Atletico-MG	+10.5				+1.3
Coritiba	No		+2.2		-0.8

Sao Paulo 0 Botafogo 0
5:00 PM Sun	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Botafogo	-4.0				-0.3
Sao Paulo	-4.3		-0.1		-0.3

Vitoria 1 Cruzeiro 1
5:00 PM Sun	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Vitoria			+0.3
Ponte Preta			+0.2

Santos 1 Gremio 0
7:00 PM Sun	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Santos	Yes				+0.5

Week of 11/25
Cruzeiro 0 Vasco da Gama 1
5:00 PM Sun	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Cruzeiro	-0.1				-0.5
Vasco da Gama	+34.0				+1.4
Botafogo	-7.1				-0.2
Atletico-MG	-6.7				-0.2
Bahia	-7.9				-0.3

Bahia 0 Chapecoense 1
7:00 PM Sun	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Vasco da Gama	-0.2
Chapecoense	+25.4				+1.8
Atletico-MG	-0.4
Bahia	-25.8				-1.5

Palmeiras 2 Botafogo 0
8:00 PM Mon	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Flamengo	+4.2				+0.2
Vasco da Gama	+5.1				+0.3
Botafogo	-19.4				-0.9
Atletico-MG	+3.0
Bahia	+2.7
Sao Paulo	+2.3

Avai 1 Atletico-PR 0
5:00 PM Sun	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Atletico-PR	-12.8				-1.3
Vitoria			+4.3		-0.3
Avai			-13.3		+0.8

Flamengo 1 Santos 2
7:00 PM Sun	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Flamengo	-5.9				-0.6

Corinthians 2 Atletico-MG 2
5:00 PM Sun	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Cruzeiro	Yes
Vasco da Gama	+1.0
Botafogo	+1.4
Atletico-MG	-5.8
Bahia	+0.8

Coritiba 1 Sao Paulo 2
5:00 PM Sun	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Sao Paulo	+3.3				+1.3
Coritiba			+8.7		-0.8

Fluminense 1 Sport Recife 2
5:00 PM Sat	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Fluminense	No				-1.1
Vitoria			+8.5		-0.3
Sport Recife			-20.7		+0.9
Ponte Preta			+6.1		-0.3

Ponte Preta 2 Vitoria 3
5:00 PM Sun	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Vitoria			-40.4		+1.2
Sport Recife			+11.7
Ponte Preta			Yes		-0.9

Week of 12/3
Chapecoense vs CoritibaIf winner is:HomeDrawAway
5:00 PM Sun	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Flamengo	79.296.596.5				7.16.56.5
Vasco da Gama	69.092.492.4				7.67.17.1
Botafogo	42.664.466.0				8.68.08.0
Chapecoense	92.41.6No				7.310.010.6
Atletico-MG	16.829.029.0				10.19.89.6
Bahia	No9.49.4				11.210.910.9
Sao Paulo	No6.66.6				11.511.111.1
Vitoria			9.820.629.2		15.415.716.0
Coritiba			41.625.8No		16.416.014.9
Sport Recife			71.5*76.683.7		17.017.117.3
Avai			77.077.087.0		17.417.417.7

Botafogo vs CruzeiroHomeDrawAway
5:00 PM Sun	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Flamengo	78.093.896.3				6.96.86.7
Vasco da Gama	71.280.293.6				7.57.37.0
Botafogo	Yes53.513.4				6.98.49.4
Chapecoense	35.244.245.2				9.38.88.8
Atletico-MG	15.628.428.4				10.19.89.8
Bahia	NoNo13.6				11.211.210.8
Sao Paulo	NoNo9.6				11.411.411.1

Atletico-MG vs GremioHomeDrawAway
5:00 PM Sun	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Flamengo	78.993.793.7				7.16.76.7
Vasco da Gama	66.289.789.7				7.67.17.1
Botafogo	41.761.861.8				8.78.08.0
Atletico-MG	72.2NoNo				7.910.411.1
Bahia	No7.87.8				11.310.910.9
Sao Paulo	No5.55.5				11.611.211.2

Vasco da Gama vs Ponte PretaHomeDrawAway
5:00 PM Sun	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Flamengo	83.988.397.8				7.06.86.4
Vasco da Gama	Yes76.656.1				6.47.88.4
Botafogo	52.252.263.3				8.58.17.9
Chapecoense	37.644.644.6				9.28.88.8
Atletico-MG	17.429.329.3				10.19.79.7

Vitoria vs FlamengoHomeDrawAway
5:00 PM Sun	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Flamengo	73.490.4Yes				7.97.35.6
Vasco da Gama	86.479.979.9				6.97.27.7
Chapecoense	44.644.636.8				8.88.89.2
Atletico-MG	30.121.519.7				9.710.010.0
Vitoria			No16.634.1		14.815.816.2
Coritiba			30.530.516.9		16.215.915.6
Sport Recife			82.876.072.1		17.317.117.0
Avai			86.777.076.9		17.617.417.4

Sao Paulo vs BahiaHomeDrawAway
5:00 PM Sun	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Botafogo	*55.263.150.1				8.38.08.4
Bahia	NoNo14.5				12.411.39.4
Sao Paulo	9.4NoNo				9.512.312.5

Sport Recife vs CorinthiansHomeDrawAway
5:00 PM Sun	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Vitoria			44.516.39.2		16.115.615.5
Coritiba			56.322.513.0		16.315.815.7
Sport Recife			10.583.4Yes		15.617.017.8
Avai			88.777.877.8		17.817.617.3

Santos vs AvaiHomeDrawAway
5:00 PM Sun	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Vitoria			10.310.343.8		15.515.516.1
Coritiba			14.414.456.0		15.715.716.4
Avai			YesYes19.9		18.317.515.9

Atletico-PR vs PalmeirasHomeDrawAway
5:00 PM Sun	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Atletico-PR					11.012.513.4

* A starred outcome could have no effect or just a really small effect. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Thank you Marcos Vilhena for adding this league.