Ypiranga-RS Playoff Chances 2016 50/50

Did not play, playoff odds down 3.3 to 45.8%

20 points 6-5-2

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

Week of 8/13	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Série B	100.0*	Série D	100.0*	Average seed
Guaratinguetá 1 Ypiranga-RS 3	+16.4		+6.8		-0.1		+0.8
Botafogo-SP 2 Portuguesa 1	-3.3		-2.8				-0.1
Juventude 1 Boa 1	+1.3		+1.2				+0.1
Macaé 2 Guarani 4	-0.3		-1.1
Tombense-MG 4 Mogi Mirim 0	*+0.1		+0.3				-0.0
Cuiabá-MT 2 Fortaleza 0					+0.1
River-PI 0 ASA 0					-0.0

If winner is:HomeEmpateAway
Week of 8/20	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Série B	100.0*	Série D	100.0*	Average seed
Ypiranga-RS vs Tombense-MG	+22.9-4.8-19.3		+12.1-4.0-9.0				+0.9-0.2-0.8
Portuguesa vs Juventude	+3.2+1.1-4.1		+1.2+0.4-1.5				+0.1+0.0-0.1
Boa vs Guarani	-3.5+0.9+2.9		-1.2+1.0+0.5				-0.1+0.0+0.1
Mogi Mirim vs Macaé	-3.4+1.3+2.5		-0.8+0.3+0.5				-0.1+0.1+0.1
Guaratinguetá vs Botafogo-SP	+2.6+0.3-2.8		+2.8+0.8-3.4				+0.1+0.0-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Chances based on how well the Ypiranga-RS finish out the regular season. Explain

										100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance in		Série		Chance will finish regular season at seed										Série
TP	W	-	L	-	E	playoffs		B		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	D		Count

35	5	-	0	-	0	In		99.8	%	78	22	0								No		24,332
33	4	-	0	-	1	In		95.5		41	54	4	0							No		91,135
32	4	-	1	-	0	100.0	%	83.3		21	62	16	1	0						No		119,309
31	3	-	0	-	2	99.9		65.3		8	57	31	4	0						No		138,728
30	3	-	1	-	1	99.2		40.5		2	39	46	13	1	0					No		364,297
29	3	-	2	-	0	92.7		15.3		0	15	44	33	7	0					No		239,525
	2	-	0	-	3	92.1		15.6		0	15	44	32	8	0	0				No		106,172
28	2	-	1	-	2	77.3		5.1		0	5	29	43	20	3	0				No		417,337
27	2	-	2	-	1	49.2		0.8			1	11	37	39	11	1				No		546,832
	1	-	0	-	4	43.5		0.6			1	9	34	41	14	1				No		40,701
26	2	-	3	-	0	16.7		0.0			0	1	15	43	34	6	0			No		238,512
	1	-	1	-	3	17.7		0.0			0	2	16	42	33	7	0			No		212,057
25	1	-	2	-	2	4.8		0.0			0	0	5	29	47	19	0			No		418,786
	0	-	0	-	5	4.0		No				0	4	27	49	21				No		6,104
24	1	-	3	-	1	0.4		No				0	0	10	45	42	2	0		No		365,019
	0	-	1	-	4	0.3		No				0	0	8	42	48	2	0		No		40,751
23	1	-	4	-	0	0.0		No					0	1	24	66	9	0		No		119,253
	0	-	2	-	3	0.0		No					0	2	24	67	7	0		No		106,174
22	0	-	3	-	2	Out		No						0	10	72	17	1		No		138,780
21	0	-	4	-	1	Out		No						0	2	56	37	5		No		91,144
20	0	-	5	-	0	Out		No							0	41	48	11		0.0	%	24,172

Total:						45.8	%	13.7	%	3	11	15	17	18	18	16	2	0		0.0	%	3,849,120

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Week of 8/13	100.0*	Lottery seed
Guaratinguetá 1 Ypiranga-RS 3	-1.7
Botafogo-SP 2 Portuguesa 1	+0.2
Juventude 1 Boa 1	-0.1
Tombense-MG 4 Mogi Mirim 0	+0.0
América-RN 2 Salgueiro 0	+0.0

If winner is:HomeEmpateAway
Week of 8/20	100.0*	Lottery seed
Ypiranga-RS vs Tombense-MG	-1.8+0.4+1.5
Guaratinguetá vs Botafogo-SP	-0.2-0.0+0.2
Portuguesa vs Juventude	-0.2-0.1+0.2
Mogi Mirim vs Macaé	+0.2-0.1-0.1
Boa vs Guarani	+0.2-0.1-0.1

						100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance will finish season at seed
TP	W	-	L	-	E	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20

35	5	-	0	-	0	77	1	22		0
33	4	-	0	-	1	35	6	54	0	4		0
32	4	-	1	-	0	16	5	62	1	16		1		0
31	3	-	0	-	2	4	4	52	5	31	0	4		0
30	3	-	1	-	1	1	1	32	6	45	1	13	0	1	0
29	3	-	2	-	0	0	0	10	6	42	2	33	0	7	0
	2	-	0	-	3	0	0	8	8	39	5	32	0	8	0	0
28	2	-	1	-	2		0	1	4	20	9	41	2	20	3	0	0
27	2	-	2	-	1			0	1	5	6	33	5	38	12	1	0	0
	1	-	0	-	4			0	1	3	6	26	8	40	15	2	0	0
26	2	-	3	-	0				0	0	1	9	6	40	35	8	1	0
	1	-	1	-	3			0	0	0	2	7	9	35	34	12	2	0	0
25	1	-	2	-	2				0	0	0	1	4	18	38	28	10	2	0	0
	0	-	0	-	5						0	0	4	13	32	31	16	4	0	0
24	1	-	3	-	1						0	0	0	4	22	37	27	9	1	0	0
	0	-	1	-	4						0	0	0	2	12	30	34	18	4	0	0
23	1	-	4	-	0								0	0	3	18	36	31	10	1	0	0
	0	-	2	-	3								0	0	1	10	28	37	20	4	0	0	0
22	0	-	3	-	2									0	0	2	13	33	35	14	3	0	0
21	0	-	4	-	1										0	0	3	18	37	29	11	2	0
20	0	-	5	-	0											0	0	4	22	36	27	9	1	0

Total:						2	1	9	2	13	2	15	2	15	13	9	7	5	3	2	1	0	0	0