Tombense-MG Playoff Chances 2016 50/50

Did not play, playoff odds down 3.2 to 40.2%

20 points 5-3-5

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

Week of 8/13	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Série B	100.0*	Série D	100.0*	Average seed
Tombense-MG 4 Mogi Mirim 0	+17.7		+6.9		-0.3		+0.9
Guaratinguetá 1 Ypiranga-RS 3	-3.5		-0.8				-0.1
Botafogo-SP 2 Portuguesa 1	-3.4		-1.9				-0.1
Juventude 1 Boa 1	+1.6		+2.0				+0.1
Macaé 2 Guarani 4	-0.2		-0.9		-0.1

If winner is:HomeEmpateAway
Week of 8/20	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Série B	100.0*	Série D	100.0*	Average seed
Ypiranga-RS vs Tombense-MG	-18.7-5.1+22.6		-8.0-3.6+10.7		+0.0-0.0No		-0.8-0.2+0.9
Portuguesa vs Juventude	+3.0+1.1-3.8		+0.8+0.4-1.1				+0.1+0.0-0.1
Boa vs Guarani	-3.4+0.9+2.8		-1.9+0.9+1.2				-0.1+0.0+0.1
Mogi Mirim vs Macaé	-3.4+1.3+2.5		-1.0+0.5+0.6				-0.1+0.1+0.1
Guaratinguetá vs Botafogo-SP	+2.7+0.5-3.0		+2.0+0.7-2.5				+0.1+0.0-0.1

Chances based on how well the Tombense-MG finish out the regular season. Explain

										100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance in		Série		Chance will finish regular season at seed										Série
TP	W	-	L	-	E	playoffs		B		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	D		Count

35	5	-	0	-	0	In		99.6	%	59	40	0								No		24,261
33	4	-	0	-	1	In		93.1		28	65	7	0							No		90,963
32	4	-	1	-	0	100.0	%	75.5		13	63	22	2	0						No		118,798
31	3	-	0	-	2	99.7		55.9		4	52	37	7	0						No		138,398
30	3	-	1	-	1	97.6		31.2		1	30	46	20	2	0	0				No		365,690
29	3	-	2	-	0	85.3		9.8		0	10	36	39	13	1	0				No		239,053
	2	-	0	-	3	87.3		10.6		0	11	38	39	12	1	0				No		106,280
28	2	-	1	-	2	64.3		2.8			3	20	42	29	6	0				No		417,468
27	2	-	2	-	1	34.3		0.3			0	6	28	43	21	2				No		547,098
	1	-	0	-	4	31.5		0.2			0	5	27	44	22	2				No		40,324
26	2	-	3	-	0	10.3		0.0			0	1	10	37	42	11	0			No		238,894
	1	-	1	-	3	9.7		0.0			0	1	9	36	42	12	0			No		211,816
25	1	-	2	-	2	1.9		No				0	2	19	50	29	0	0		No		417,850
	0	-	0	-	5	0.9		No					1	17	51	31	0			No		6,151
24	1	-	3	-	1	0.2		No					0	6	41	51	3	0		No		364,669
	0	-	1	-	4	0.1		No					0	4	37	57	2	0		No		40,204
23	1	-	4	-	0	Out		No						1	21	67	11	0		No		119,957
	0	-	2	-	3	0.0		No					0	0	18	73	8	0		No		106,041
22	0	-	3	-	2	Out		No						0	7	73	19	1		No		139,485
21	0	-	4	-	1	Out		No							3	55	36	6		0.0	%	91,308
20	0	-	5	-	0	Out		No							1	37	49	13		0.2		24,412

Total:						40.2	%	11.4	%	2	10	13	16	18	20	19	3	0		0.0	%	3,849,120

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Week of 8/13	100.0*	Lottery seed
Tombense-MG 4 Mogi Mirim 0	-1.9
Guaratinguetá 1 Ypiranga-RS 3	+0.2
Botafogo-SP 2 Portuguesa 1	+0.2
Juventude 1 Boa 1	-0.1
América-RN 2 Salgueiro 0	+0.0

If winner is:HomeEmpateAway
Week of 8/20	100.0*	Lottery seed
Ypiranga-RS vs Tombense-MG	+1.5+0.4-1.8
Guaratinguetá vs Botafogo-SP	-0.2-0.0+0.2
Mogi Mirim vs Macaé	+0.2-0.1-0.1
Portuguesa vs Juventude	-0.1-0.1+0.2
Boa vs Guarani	+0.2-0.1-0.1

						100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance will finish season at seed
TP	W	-	L	-	E	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20

35	5	-	0	-	0	58	2	40		0
33	4	-	0	-	1	23	5	65	0	7		0
32	4	-	1	-	0	9	4	62	1	22	0	2		0
31	3	-	0	-	2	1	2	45	7	37	0	7		0
30	3	-	1	-	1	0	1	24	7	45	1	20	0	2	0	0
29	3	-	2	-	0	0	0	5	4	33	4	39	0	13	1	0
	2	-	0	-	3		0	4	7	30	8	38	1	12	1	0
28	2	-	1	-	2			1	2	12	8	38	4	29	6	0	0
27	2	-	2	-	1			0	0	2	3	23	6	42	21	3	0	0
	1	-	0	-	4			0	0	1	4	17	10	42	23	4	0	0
26	2	-	3	-	0				0	0	1	5	5	31	40	16	2	0	0
	1	-	1	-	3				0	0	1	3	6	26	39	20	4	1	0
25	1	-	2	-	2						0	0	2	9	31	35	17	4	0	0
	0	-	0	-	5							0	1	7	27	36	22	7	1
24	1	-	3	-	1							0	0	1	12	31	34	18	4	0	0
	0	-	1	-	4								0	0	6	23	37	26	7	1	0
23	1	-	4	-	0									0	1	10	28	36	20	4	0	0
	0	-	2	-	3								0	0	1	5	21	38	27	7	1	0
22	0	-	3	-	2										0	1	7	27	39	21	5	0	0
21	0	-	4	-	1											0	1	10	31	35	18	4	0	0
20	0	-	5	-	0												0	2	14	32	33	16	3	0

Total:						1	0	8	2	11	2	14	2	15	13	10	8	6	4	2	1	0	0	0