SPORTS CLUB STATS

Your team’s chances of making the playoffs

Salgueiro Playoff Chances 2016 50/50

Did not play, playoff odds down 0.4 to 19.5%

16 points 4-5-4

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How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

Week of 8/13	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Série B	100.0*	Série D	100.0*	Average seed
América-RN 2 Salgueiro 0	-13.9		-5.6		+1.2		-0.9
Confiança 1 ABC 1	+0.9		+0.2				+0.1
Cuiabá-MT 2 Fortaleza 0	+0.9		+0.7		+0.4		-0.1
River-PI 0 ASA 0	+0.5		+0.2		-0.2		+0.1
Botafogo-PB 2 Remo 0	-0.4		-0.2
Botafogo-SP 2 Portuguesa 1					-0.4
Macaé 2 Guarani 4					-0.2
Guaratinguetá 1 Ypiranga-RS 3					-0.1

If winner is:HomeEmpateAway
Week of 8/20	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Série B	100.0*	Série D	100.0*	Average seed
Salgueiro vs Cuiabá-MT	+15.0-4.9-11.3		+4.9-2.0-3.4		-1.5-0.4+1.8		+1.1-0.2-0.9
Remo vs Confiança	-2.5+0.8+1.8		-0.7+0.3+0.5		-0.3*-0.0+0.3		-0.0+0.1-0.0
ASA vs América-RN	-1.3+1.2+0.4		-0.7+0.4+0.4		-0.1*-0.0+0.1		+0.0+0.1-0.1
River-PI vs Botafogo-PB	+1.1+0.2-1.3		+0.9+0.2-1.0		+0.5-0.2-0.4
ABC vs Fortaleza	-1.0+0.8+0.4		+0.1+0.6-0.5				-0.1+0.0+0.0
Mogi Mirim vs Macaé					-0.4-0.1+0.5
Portuguesa vs Juventude					+0.5-0.1-0.4
Guaratinguetá vs Botafogo-SP					+0.1-0.0-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Salgueiro finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Série		Chance will finish regular season at seed										Série
TP		W	-	L	-	E	playoffs		B		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	D		Count

31		5	-	0	-	0	In		97.0	%	63	34	3	0							No		24,272
29		4	-	0	-	1	99.9	%	72.3		22	51	25	3	0						No		91,316
28		4	-	1	-	0	98.3		38.8		6	33	43	16	2	0					No		119,510
27		3	-	0	-	2	92.8		16.5		1	15	43	33	7	0	0				No		138,996
26		3	-	1	-	1	66.5		2.4		0	2	20	44	28	5	0				No		364,844
25		3	-	2	-	0	30.3		0.1		0	0	4	26	45	22	3	0			No		239,189
		2	-	0	-	3	30.1		0.2			0	4	26	45	22	3	0			No		106,675
24		2	-	1	-	2	8.8		0.0			0	0	8	38	42	11	0			No		418,256
23		2	-	2	-	1	0.8		No				0	1	13	45	35	6	0		No		546,186
		1	-	0	-	4	0.5		No				0	0	10	44	40	5	0		No		40,902
22		2	-	3	-	0	0.0		No					0	3	24	48	23	2	0	No		239,043
		1	-	1	-	3	0.0		No					0	2	25	51	20	2	0	No		212,019
21		1	-	2	-	2	Out		No						0	8	40	41	10	0	0.0	%	416,996
		0	-	0	-	5	Out		No						0	7	44	41	9	0	0.0		6,177
20		1	-	3	-	1	Out		No						0	1	17	47	31	4	0.3		363,898
		0	-	1	-	4	Out		No							1	19	48	29	3	0.2		40,411
19		1	-	4	-	0	Out		No							0	4	31	51	14	2.1		119,857
		0	-	2	-	3	Out		No							0	5	33	49	13	2.0		105,722
18		0	-	3	-	2	Out		No							0	1	13	51	35	10.5		139,149
17		0	-	4	-	1	Out		No								0	2	36	62	28.0		91,122
16		0	-	5	-	0	Out		No									0	15	85	52.3		24,580

Total:							19.5	%	4.4	%	1	3	6	9	13	18	19	15	10	4	1.5	%	3,849,120

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 8/13	100.0*	Lottery seed
América-RN 2 Salgueiro 0	+1.7
Guaratinguetá 1 Ypiranga-RS 3	+0.1
Confiança 1 ABC 1	-0.1
River-PI 0 ASA 0	-0.1
Macaé 2 Guarani 4	-0.1
Botafogo-SP 2 Portuguesa 1	-0.0

If winner is:HomeEmpateAway
Week of 8/20	100.0*	Lottery seed
Salgueiro vs Cuiabá-MT	-2.0+0.5+1.6
ASA vs América-RN	+0.0-0.1+0.1
Remo vs Confiança	+0.1-0.1-0.0
ABC vs Fortaleza	+0.1-0.1-0.0
River-PI vs Botafogo-PB	+0.0-0.1+0.0

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W	-	L	-	E	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20

31		5	-	0	-	0	2	60	17	17	3	0	0
29		4	-	0	-	1	0	22	4	47	10	15	2	1	0
28		4	-	1	-	0		6	1	32	9	34	10	7	1	0	0	0
27		3	-	0	-	2		1	0	15	2	42	8	25	4	2	1	0	0
26		3	-	1	-	1		0		2	0	20	3	41	10	13	8	2	0	0
25		3	-	2	-	0		0		0	0	4	0	26	7	21	26	13	3	0	0
		2	-	0	-	3				0		4	0	26	4	17	27	17	4	0	0
24		2	-	1	-	2				0		0	0	8	1	8	26	34	19	4	0	0
23		2	-	2	-	1						0		1	0	1	8	26	37	23	5	0	0
		1	-	0	-	4						0		0		0	4	19	40	30	6	1	0
22		2	-	3	-	0								0		0	1	8	27	39	21	4	0	0
		1	-	1	-	3								0		0	1	6	26	42	21	4	0	0
21		1	-	2	-	2											0	1	8	30	38	19	4	0	0
		0	-	0	-	5												0	6	32	39	19	4	0	0
20		1	-	3	-	1											0	0	1	10	32	36	18	4	0
		0	-	1	-	4												0	1	10	33	36	17	3	0
19		1	-	4	-	0													0	2	14	34	34	14	2	0
		0	-	2	-	3													0	2	15	35	33	14	2	0
18		0	-	3	-	2														0	3	17	37	33	10	0
17		0	-	4	-	1															0	5	24	43	28	0
16		0	-	5	-	0																1	9	38	50	2

Total:							0	1	0	3	1	5	1	8	2	4	7	10	12	13	12	9	6	4	2	0