Portuguesa Playoff Chances 2016 50/50Lost to Botafogo-SP 1-2, playoff odds down 1.3 to 0.2% 11 points 3-8-2 How are these numbers calculated? Big GamesHow we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain Week of 8/13 | 100.0* | Chance in playoffs | 100.0* | Série B | 100.0* | Série D | 100.0* | Average seed | Botafogo-SP 2 Portuguesa 1 | -1.4 | | -0.1 | | +9.2 | | -0.3 | | Guaratinguetá 1 Ypiranga-RS 3 | -0.3 | | | | -1.4 | | | | Juventude 1 Boa 1 | +0.1 | | | | | | | | Macaé 2 Guarani 4 | | | | | -1.2 | | +0.1 | | Cuiabá-MT 2 Fortaleza 0 | | | | | +2.5 | | | | América-RN 2 Salgueiro 0 | | | | | +0.6 | | | | River-PI 0 ASA 0 | | | | | -0.6 | | | | Confiança 1 ABC 1 | | | | | *-0.1 | | | | | If winner is:HomeEmpateAway | Week of 8/20 | 100.0* | Chance in playoffs | 100.0* | Série B | 100.0* | Série D | 100.0* | Average seed | Portuguesa vs Juventude | +0.3-0.2-0.2 | | +0.0*NoNo | | -14.8+2.6+12.8 | | +0.3-0.1-0.3 | | Boa vs Guarani | -0.1*+0.0+0.1 | | | | | | | | Mogi Mirim vs Macaé | -0.1*+0.0+0.1 | | | | -3.0-0.7+3.5 | | +0.1+0.0-0.1 | | Guaratinguetá vs Botafogo-SP | | | +0.0*-0.0No | | +1.6-0.6-1.1 | | -0.1+0.0+0.0 | | River-PI vs Botafogo-PB | | | | | +4.7-0.8-4.1 | | | | Remo vs Confiança | | | | | -2.0*-0.1+2.1 | | | | Salgueiro vs Cuiabá-MT | | | | | -1.6*-0.1+1.6 | | | | ASA vs América-RN | | | | | -0.2*+0.1+0.2 | | | |
* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know. What IfChances based on how well the Portuguesa finish out the regular season. Explain | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | | If finish: | Chance in | Série | Chance will finish regular season at seed | Série | | TP | W | - | L | - | E | playoffs | B | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | D | Count | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 26 | | 5 | - | 0 | - | 0 | 23.4 | % | 0.1 | % | | 0 | 3 | 21 | 43 | 28 | 5 | 0 | | | No | 24,011 | | 24 | | 4 | - | 0 | - | 1 | 0.4 | | No | | | 0 | 0 | 9 | 36 | 43 | 12 | 0 | | No | 91,209 | | 23 | | 4 | - | 1 | - | 0 | 0.0 | | No | | | | 0 | 1 | 13 | 47 | 39 | 1 | | No | 119,003 | | 22 | | 3 | - | 0 | - | 2 | Out | No | | | | | 0 | 3 | 31 | 62 | 4 | | No | 139,607 | | 21 | | 3 | - | 1 | - | 1 | Out | No | | | | | | 0 | 14 | 75 | 10 | | 0.0 | % | 365,824 | | 20 | | 3 | - | 2 | - | 0 | Out | No | | | | | | 0 | 4 | 76 | 20 | | 0.1 | | 239,289 | | | 2 | - | 0 | - | 3 | Out | No | | | | | | 0 | 3 | 73 | 25 | | 0.1 | | 105,954 | | 19 | | 2 | - | 1 | - | 2 | Out | No | | | | | | | 0 | 67 | 33 | 0 | 1.2 | | 417,116 | | 18 | | 2 | - | 2 | - | 1 | Out | No | | | | | | | | 54 | 46 | 0 | 4.8 | | 547,526 | | | 1 | - | 0 | - | 4 | Out | No | | | | | | | | 46 | 54 | | 6.9 | | 40,391 | | 17 | | 2 | - | 3 | - | 0 | Out | No | | | | | | | | 41 | 58 | 1 | 15.9 | | 238,481 | | | 1 | - | 1 | - | 3 | Out | No | | | | | | | | 36 | 63 | 1 | 18.9 | | 212,564 | | 16 | | 1 | - | 2 | - | 2 | Out | No | | | | | | | | 26 | 70 | 4 | 37.0 | | 417,363 | | | 0 | - | 0 | - | 5 | Out | No | | | | | | | | 22 | 77 | 1 | 40.7 | | 6,193 | | 15 | | 1 | - | 3 | - | 1 | Out | No | | | | | | | | 15 | 76 | 9 | 58.9 | | 363,913 | | | 0 | - | 1 | - | 4 | Out | No | | | | | | | | 11 | 81 | 8 | 64.1 | | 40,476 | | 14 | | 1 | - | 4 | - | 0 | Out | No | | | | | | | | 7 | 70 | 23 | 80.3 | | 119,380 | | | 0 | - | 2 | - | 3 | Out | No | | | | | | | | 5 | 75 | 20 | 82.1 | | 106,414 | | 13 | | 0 | - | 3 | - | 2 | Out | No | | | | | | | | 2 | 63 | 34 | 92.8 | | 138,977 | | 12 | | 0 | - | 4 | - | 1 | Out | No | | | | | | | | 1 | 47 | 52 | 98.0 | | 90,997 | | 11 | | 0 | - | 5 | - | 0 | Out | No | | | | | | | | 0 | 27 | 73 | 99.8 | | 24,432 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Total: | 0.2 | % | 0.0 | % | | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 42 | 44 | 6 | 24.3 | % | 3,849,120 | |
Chance Will Make Playoffs
LotteryYe of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds. Big GamesWeek of 8/13 | 100.0* | Lottery seed | Botafogo-SP 2 Portuguesa 1 | +1.0 | | Cuiabá-MT 2 Fortaleza 0 | +0.1 | | Macaé 2 Guarani 4 | -0.1 | | América-RN 2 Salgueiro 0 | +0.1 | | River-PI 0 ASA 0 | -0.0 | | Confiança 1 ABC 1 | -0.0 | | | If winner is:HomeEmpateAway | Week of 8/20 | 100.0* | Lottery seed | Portuguesa vs Juventude | -1.1+0.3+0.8 | | River-PI vs Botafogo-PB | +0.2-0.0-0.1 | | Remo vs Confiança | -0.1-0.0+0.1 | | Mogi Mirim vs Macaé | -0.1-0.0+0.1 | | ASA vs América-RN | -0.1-0.0+0.1 | | Salgueiro vs Cuiabá-MT | -0.0-0.0+0.1 | | Guaratinguetá vs Botafogo-SP | +0.1-0.0-0.0 | |
What If | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | If finish: | Chance will finish season at seed | TP | W | - | L | - | E | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 26 | | 5 | - | 0 | - | 0 | | | | 0 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 8 | 40 | 29 | 7 | 1 | 0 | | | | | | | | 24 | | 4 | - | 0 | - | 1 | | | | | | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 17 | 33 | 29 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 0 | | | | | 23 | | 4 | - | 1 | - | 0 | | | | | | | | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 28 | 34 | 20 | 5 | 0 | 0 | | | | 22 | | 3 | - | 0 | - | 2 | | | | | | | | | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 24 | 37 | 25 | 5 | 0 | 0 | | | 21 | | 3 | - | 1 | - | 1 | | | | | | | | | | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 28 | 40 | 20 | 4 | 0 | 0 | | 20 | | 3 | - | 2 | - | 0 | | | | | | | | | | | | 0 | 1 | 9 | 35 | 38 | 15 | 2 | 0 | | | 2 | - | 0 | - | 3 | | | | | | | | | | | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 31 | 39 | 18 | 3 | 0 | | 19 | | 2 | - | 1 | - | 2 | | | | | | | | | | | | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 37 | 35 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 18 | | 2 | - | 2 | - | 1 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 0 | 0 | 4 | 23 | 41 | 26 | 5 | 0 | | 1 | - | 0 | - | 4 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 0 | 3 | 19 | 40 | 31 | 7 | | 17 | | 2 | - | 3 | - | 0 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 0 | 1 | 9 | 33 | 41 | 16 | 0 | | 1 | - | 1 | - | 3 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 0 | 0 | 7 | 30 | 43 | 19 | 0 | 16 | | 1 | - | 2 | - | 2 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 0 | 2 | 17 | 44 | 35 | 2 | | 0 | - | 0 | - | 5 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 0 | 1 | 13 | 45 | 40 | 1 | 15 | | 1 | - | 3 | - | 1 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 0 | 0 | 6 | 34 | 53 | 6 | | 0 | - | 1 | - | 4 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 0 | 4 | 31 | 59 | 5 | 14 | | 1 | - | 4 | - | 0 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 0 | 1 | 18 | 62 | 19 | | 0 | - | 2 | - | 3 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 0 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 66 | 17 | 13 | | 0 | - | 3 | - | 2 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 0 | 7 | 61 | 32 | 12 | | 0 | - | 4 | - | 1 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 0 | 2 | 48 | 50 | 11 | | 0 | - | 5 | - | 0 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 0 | 28 | 72 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Total: | | | | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 10 | 14 | 18 | 20 | 20 | 5 |
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