Guarani Playoff Chances 2016 50/50

Did not play, playoff odds down 0.2 to 99.2%

28 points 8-1-4

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

Week of 8/13	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Série B	100.0*	Average seed
Macaé 2 Guarani 4	+3.1		+11.2		+0.4
Botafogo-SP 2 Portuguesa 1	-0.2		-1.9		-0.1
Guaratinguetá 1 Ypiranga-RS 3	-0.2		-0.8
Juventude 1 Boa 1	+0.1		+0.9		+0.0
Tombense-MG 4 Mogi Mirim 0			+0.6		+0.0

If winner is:HomeEmpateAway
Week of 8/20	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Série B	100.0*	Average seed
Boa vs Guarani	-1.1+0.4+0.8		-8.8+0.8+8.2		-0.3+0.0+0.3
Mogi Mirim vs Macaé	-0.3+0.1+0.2		-0.9+0.4+0.6
Portuguesa vs Juventude	+0.2+0.2-0.3		+0.6+0.4-1.0
Ypiranga-RS vs Tombense-MG	-0.1+0.2-0.0		-0.8+1.0*+0.0
Guaratinguetá vs Botafogo-SP	+0.1+0.1-0.2		+1.7+1.0-2.5		+0.1+0.0-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Chances based on how well the Guarani finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Série		Chance will finish regular season at seed										Série
TP		W	-	L	-	E	playoffs		B		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	D	Count

39	-43						In		Yes		100										No	374,843	*
38		3	-	1	-	1	In		Yes		100	0									No	365,225
37		3	-	2	-	0	In		100.0	%	99	1	0								No	239,267
		2	-	0	-	3	In		Yes		100										No	105,972
36		2	-	1	-	2	In		100.0		98	2	0								No	417,570
35		2	-	2	-	1	In		99.8		89	11	0	0							No	547,131
		1	-	0	-	4	In		100.0		96	4	0								No	40,650
34		2	-	3	-	0	In		99.0		80	19	1	0							No	239,190
		1	-	1	-	3	In		99.6		86	14	0								No	212,333
33		1	-	2	-	2	In		96.0		63	33	4	0							No	415,914
		0	-	0	-	5	In		98.2		73	25	2	0							No	6,042
32		1	-	3	-	1	100.0	%	82.6		36	46	16	1	0						No	363,850
		0	-	1	-	4	100.0		89.9		47	42	10	1	0						No	40,740
31		1	-	4	-	0	99.8		65.4		20	45	29	5	0						No	119,799
		0	-	2	-	3	99.9		68.3		21	47	28	4	0						No	106,992
30		0	-	3	-	2	96.8		30.7		4	26	44	22	3	0					No	138,745
29		0	-	4	-	1	81.4		8.6		1	8	32	40	17	2	0				No	90,765
28		0	-	5	-	0	58.1		1.4		0	1	15	42	34	8	0				No	24,092

Total:							99.2	%	90.5	%	74	16	6	2	1	0	0				No	3,849,120

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Week of 8/13	100.0*	Lottery seed
Macaé 2 Guarani 4	-0.8
Botafogo-SP 2 Portuguesa 1	+0.1
Juventude 1 Boa 1	-0.1
Cuiabá-MT 2 Fortaleza 0	-0.0
Tombense-MG 4 Mogi Mirim 0	-0.0

If winner is:HomeEmpateAway
Week of 8/20	100.0*	Lottery seed
Boa vs Guarani	+0.6-0.0-0.6
Guaratinguetá vs Botafogo-SP	-0.1-0.1+0.2
Portuguesa vs Juventude	-0.0-0.0+0.1
Ypiranga-RS vs Tombense-MG	+0.0-0.1+0.0

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W	-	L	-	E	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20

39	-43						100
38		3	-	1	-	1	100		0
37		3	-	2	-	0	97	1	1		0
		2	-	0	-	3	99	1
36		2	-	1	-	2	96	1	2		0
35		2	-	2	-	1	83	6	11	0	0		0
		1	-	0	-	4	89	7	4	0	0
34		2	-	3	-	0	70	11	19	0	1		0
		1	-	1	-	3	74	12	14	0	0
33		1	-	2	-	2	47	15	33	0	4		0
		0	-	0	-	5	54	19	25	0	2		0
32		1	-	3	-	1	20	17	43	3	16	0	1		0
		0	-	1	-	4	25	22	40	3	10	0	1		0
31		1	-	4	-	0	9	11	40	5	29	0	5	0	0
		0	-	2	-	3	7	14	40	8	27	0	4		0
30		0	-	3	-	2	1	4	17	10	42	2	22	0	3	0
29		0	-	4	-	1	0	1	3	5	26	6	39	1	17	2	0	0
28		0	-	5	-	0	0	0	0	1	10	5	39	3	34	8	0	0

Total:							67	7	15	1	6	0	2	0	1	0	0	0