SPORTS CLUB STATS

Your team’s chances of making the playoffs

Cuiabá-MT Playoff Chances 2016 50/50

Did not play, playoff odds down 0.3 to 4.5%

13 points 3-6-4

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How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

Week of 8/13	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Série B	100.0*	Série D	100.0*	Average seed
Cuiabá-MT 2 Fortaleza 0	+2.4		+0.2		-14.4		+0.6
Botafogo-PB 2 Remo 0	-0.2
Confiança 1 ABC 1	+0.2				-0.3		+0.0
América-RN 2 Salgueiro 0	+0.1				+0.8		-0.1
River-PI 0 ASA 0	+0.1				-0.8		+0.0
Macaé 2 Guarani 4					-2.0
Guaratinguetá 1 Ypiranga-RS 3					-1.4
Botafogo-SP 2 Portuguesa 1					-1.2

If winner is:HomeEmpateAway
Week of 8/20	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Série B	100.0*	Série D	100.0*	Average seed
Salgueiro vs Cuiabá-MT	-3.8-2.1+5.4		-0.4-0.3+0.7		+7.5+0.7-8.1		-0.7-0.2+0.9
Remo vs Confiança	-0.7+0.2+0.5		-0.1+0.0+0.1		-1.3-0.1+1.4		+0.1+0.0-0.1
ASA vs América-RN	-0.7+0.4+0.3		-0.1+0.1+0.1		-0.1*+0.0+0.1		+0.1+0.0-0.1
ABC vs Fortaleza	-0.5+0.2+0.4		+0.0+0.0-0.1
River-PI vs Botafogo-PB	+0.3*+0.0-0.4		+0.1+0.0-0.2		+2.1-0.5-1.7		-0.1+0.0+0.1
Portuguesa vs Juventude					+2.1-0.4-1.8
Mogi Mirim vs Macaé					-1.8-0.4+2.1
Guaratinguetá vs Botafogo-SP					+0.6-0.3-0.4

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Cuiabá-MT finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Série		Chance will finish regular season at seed										Série
TP		W	-	L	-	E	playoffs		B		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	D		Count

28		5	-	0	-	0	99.4	%	46.7	%	8	39	42	11	1						No		24,373
26		4	-	0	-	1	81.8		5.3		0	5	31	46	17	1	0				No		91,187
25		4	-	1	-	0	38.7		0.3			0	6	32	44	16	1	0			No		118,792
24		3	-	0	-	2	17.0		0.0			0	1	16	45	31	6	0	0		No		139,130
23		3	-	1	-	1	1.6		No				0	2	19	46	28	5	0		No		364,348
22		3	-	2	-	0	0.0		No					0	2	23	47	26	2	0	No		239,962
		2	-	0	-	3	0.1		No					0	4	27	45	22	2	0	No		106,121
21		2	-	1	-	2	0.0		No					0	0	10	39	42	9	0	0.0	%	418,941
20		2	-	2	-	1	Out		No						0	1	17	51	29	2	0.2		547,316
		1	-	0	-	4	Out		No						0	1	13	53	31	2	0.2		40,658
19		2	-	3	-	0	Out		No							0	3	35	50	11	1.4		238,700
		1	-	1	-	3	Out		No							0	4	37	49	10	1.5		212,258
18		1	-	2	-	2	Out		No							0	1	19	55	25	7.4		417,482
		0	-	0	-	5	Out		No								0	17	56	27	7.9		6,173
17		1	-	3	-	1	Out		No								0	6	47	47	20.2		363,465
		0	-	1	-	4	Out		No									6	49	45	20.8		40,181
16		1	-	4	-	0	Out		No									2	30	68	38.6		120,156
		0	-	2	-	3	Out		No									2	32	66	42.0		105,659
15		0	-	3	-	2	Out		No									0	17	83	66.6		138,883
14		0	-	4	-	1	Out		No									0	6	94	84.5		91,029
13		0	-	5	-	0	Out		No										1	99	94.3		24,306

Total:							4.5	%	0.4	%	0	0	1	3	6	9	14	22	25	19	10.5	%	3,849,120

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 8/13	100.0*	Lottery seed
Cuiabá-MT 2 Fortaleza 0	-1.2
Macaé 2 Guarani 4	-0.1
Botafogo-SP 2 Portuguesa 1	-0.1
América-RN 2 Salgueiro 0	+0.1
River-PI 0 ASA 0	-0.0
Confiança 1 ABC 1	-0.0

If winner is:HomeEmpateAway
Week of 8/20	100.0*	Lottery seed
Salgueiro vs Cuiabá-MT	+1.2+0.4-1.5
Portuguesa vs Juventude	+0.1-0.1-0.1
River-PI vs Botafogo-PB	+0.1-0.0-0.1
Remo vs Confiança	-0.1-0.0+0.1
Mogi Mirim vs Macaé	-0.1-0.1+0.1
ABC vs Fortaleza	+0.1-0.0-0.1
ASA vs América-RN	-0.0-0.0+0.1

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W	-	L	-	E	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20

28		5	-	0	-	0		8	1	38	9	33	7	4	1	0	0
26		4	-	0	-	1		0		5	0	31	4	42	7	7	4	1	0
25		4	-	1	-	0				0	0	6	1	32	7	20	22	10	2	0	0
24		3	-	0	-	2				0		1	0	16	1	10	29	29	12	2	0	0
23		3	-	1	-	1						0		2	0	1	11	29	35	18	4	0	0	0
22		3	-	2	-	0								0		0	1	8	26	39	22	4	0	0
		2	-	0	-	3								0		0	1	8	28	38	21	4	0	0
21		2	-	1	-	2								0		0	0	1	9	30	38	18	4	0	0
20		2	-	2	-	1											0	0	1	10	34	36	16	3	0
		1	-	0	-	4												0	0	7	33	38	18	3	0
19		2	-	3	-	0												0	0	1	16	38	32	11	1	0
		1	-	1	-	3													0	2	16	36	33	12	2	0
18		1	-	2	-	2													0	0	4	21	38	29	7	0
		0	-	0	-	5														0	3	20	39	30	8
17		1	-	3	-	1														0	1	9	30	41	20	0
		0	-	1	-	4															1	8	30	41	20	0
16		1	-	4	-	0															0	3	17	42	37	2
		0	-	2	-	3															0	2	15	41	40	2
15		0	-	3	-	2															0	0	5	29	61	5
14		0	-	4	-	1																0	1	14	70	14
13		0	-	5	-	0																0	0	6	70	24

Total:								0	0	0	0	1	0	3	0	1	3	5	7	10	14	16	15	13	10	1