SPORTS CLUB STATS

Your team’s chances of making the playoffs

América-RN Playoff Chances 2016 50/50

Did not play, playoff odds down 0.7 to 20.4%

16 points 4-5-4

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How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

Week of 8/13	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Série B	100.0*	Série D	100.0*	Average seed
América-RN 2 Salgueiro 0	+9.3		+2.2		-5.5		+0.9
Confiança 1 ABC 1	+0.9		+0.2				+0.1
Botafogo-PB 2 Remo 0	-0.7		-0.1
River-PI 0 ASA 0	+0.6		+0.2		-0.2		+0.1
Cuiabá-MT 2 Fortaleza 0	+0.5		+0.6		+0.4		-0.1
Macaé 2 Guarani 4					-0.8
Botafogo-SP 2 Portuguesa 1					-0.3
Guaratinguetá 1 Ypiranga-RS 3					-0.1

If winner is:HomeEmpateAway
Week of 8/20	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Série B	100.0*	Série D	100.0*	Average seed
ASA vs América-RN	-12.9-5.2+16.9		-4.2-2.3+5.9		+1.2-0.2-1.1		-0.9-0.3+1.1
Remo vs Confiança	-2.4+0.8+1.8		-0.8+0.3+0.6		-0.2*-0.0+0.2		-0.0+0.1-0.0
River-PI vs Botafogo-PB	+1.3+0.3-1.5		+1.0+0.2-1.2		+0.5-0.2-0.4
Salgueiro vs Cuiabá-MT	-1.4+0.9+0.7		-0.3+0.1+0.2		-0.1*-0.0+0.1		-0.1+0.1-0.0
ABC vs Fortaleza	-1.3+0.7+0.7		*-0.0+0.5-0.4				-0.1+0.0+0.0
Mogi Mirim vs Macaé					-0.3-0.1+0.4
Portuguesa vs Juventude					+0.4-0.1-0.3
Guaratinguetá vs Botafogo-SP					+0.1*-0.0-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the América-RN finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Série		Chance will finish regular season at seed										Série
TP		W	-	L	-	E	playoffs		B		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	D		Count

31		5	-	0	-	0	In		98.1	%	66	32	2	0							No		24,360
29		4	-	0	-	1	100.0	%	78.7		26	53	20	2	0						No		91,257
28		4	-	1	-	0	98.7		42.7		7	36	42	14	1	0					No		119,013
27		3	-	0	-	2	94.8		22.2		2	21	45	28	5	0					No		138,393
26		3	-	1	-	1	70.4		3.2		0	3	23	44	25	4	0				No		365,584
25		3	-	2	-	0	31.9		0.2			0	5	27	44	21	3	0			No		239,006
		2	-	0	-	3	35.1		0.3			0	6	29	43	20	2	0			No		106,070
24		2	-	1	-	2	10.4		0.0			0	1	10	38	40	11	0	0		No		418,509
23		2	-	2	-	1	0.9		No				0	1	14	45	35	5	0		No		545,668
		1	-	0	-	4	0.7		No				0	1	11	42	40	6	0		No		40,450
22		2	-	3	-	0	0.0		No					0	3	25	49	22	2	0	No		238,905
		1	-	1	-	3	0.0		No					0	2	25	51	20	2	0	No		212,796
21		1	-	2	-	2	Out		No						0	8	42	41	9	0	0.0	%	418,092
		0	-	0	-	5	Out		No						0	5	43	42	10	0	No		6,258
20		1	-	3	-	1	Out		No						0	1	20	48	28	3	0.2		364,459
		0	-	1	-	4	Out		No							1	19	48	30	3	0.3		40,309
19		1	-	4	-	0	Out		No							0	6	36	48	9	1.3		119,161
		0	-	2	-	3	Out		No							0	6	36	47	11	1.7		106,629
18		0	-	3	-	2	Out		No							0	1	17	55	28	8.1		139,186
17		0	-	4	-	1	Out		No								0	5	48	47	21.4		90,831
16		0	-	5	-	0	Out		No									0	36	63	39.6		24,184

Total:							20.4	%	4.9	%	1	4	6	9	13	17	20	16	10	3	1.2	%	3,849,120

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 8/13	100.0*	Lottery seed
América-RN 2 Salgueiro 0	-1.7
Macaé 2 Guarani 4	-0.1
Guaratinguetá 1 Ypiranga-RS 3	+0.1
Confiança 1 ABC 1	-0.1
River-PI 0 ASA 0	-0.1
Botafogo-SP 2 Portuguesa 1	-0.0
Botafogo-PB 2 Remo 0	+0.0

If winner is:HomeEmpateAway
Week of 8/20	100.0*	Lottery seed
ASA vs América-RN	+1.6+0.5-2.0
Salgueiro vs Cuiabá-MT	+0.1-0.1-0.0
ABC vs Fortaleza	+0.1-0.0-0.1
Remo vs Confiança	+0.1-0.1-0.0
River-PI vs Botafogo-PB	-0.0-0.1+0.0

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W	-	L	-	E	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20

31		5	-	0	-	0	2	64	16	16	2	0	0
29		4	-	0	-	1	0	26	4	48	8	12	1	0	0	0
28		4	-	1	-	0		7	1	35	9	33	8	6	1	0	0
27		3	-	0	-	2		2	0	20	2	43	7	21	3	2	0	0	0
26		3	-	1	-	1		0	0	3	0	23	3	41	9	12	7	2	0	0
25		3	-	2	-	0				0	0	5	0	27	7	21	25	13	3	0	0
		2	-	0	-	3				0	0	6	0	29	4	17	25	15	4	0	0
24		2	-	1	-	2				0		1	0	10	1	8	26	33	18	4	0	0
23		2	-	2	-	1						0	0	1	0	1	8	26	37	22	4	0	0	0
		1	-	0	-	4						0		1	0	0	4	19	38	30	6	1	0
22		2	-	3	-	0								0	0	0	1	8	27	39	20	4	0	0
		1	-	1	-	3								0		0	1	6	26	42	21	4	0	0
21		1	-	2	-	2										0	0	1	8	31	38	18	4	0	0
		0	-	0	-	5												0	5	31	40	19	5	0
20		1	-	3	-	1											0	0	1	12	33	35	16	3	0
		0	-	1	-	4												0	0	10	33	36	17	4	0
19		1	-	4	-	0													0	2	17	36	32	11	1	0
		0	-	2	-	3													0	2	16	36	32	12	2	0
18		0	-	3	-	2													0	0	4	20	38	30	8	0
17		0	-	4	-	1														0	1	7	29	42	21	0
16		0	-	5	-	0															0	2	16	43	38	2

Total:							0	1	0	3	1	6	1	8	2	4	7	10	12	13	12	9	6	3	1	0