ASA Playoff Chances 2016 50/50

Season start, playoff odds unchanged at 53.9%

0 points 0-0-0

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Chances based on how well the ASA finish out the regular season. Explain

									100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W	-	D	-	L	playoffs		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	Count

40	-48						In		100										3,795	*
39		12	-	3	-	1	In		100	0									2,966	*
38		12	-	2	-	2	In		100	0									5,866	*
37		11	-	4	-	1	In		99	1									10,062	*
36		11	-	3	-	2	In		99	1									17,697	*
35		11	-	2	-	3	In		97	3	0								29,406	*
34		10	-	4	-	2	In		95	5	0								45,799	*
33		10	-	3	-	3	In		92	8	0								71,167	*
32		10	-	2	-	4	In		86	14	0								104,039	*
31		9	-	4	-	3	In		78	21	1	0							147,411	*
30		9	-	3	-	4	100.0	%	68	30	2	0	0						201,170	*
29		8	-	5	-	3	100.0		55	40	6	0	0						264,428	*
28		8	-	4	-	4	100.0		40	48	12	1	0						333,974	*
27		8	-	3	-	5	99.9		25	50	23	2	0						249,760
		7	-	6	-	3	100.0		27	50	20	2	0						161,680	*
26		7	-	5	-	4	99.8		14	46	33	6	0	0					290,582
		8	-	2	-	6	99.7		13	45	35	7	0	0					195,993	*
25		7	-	4	-	5	98.7		6	34	44	15	1	0					379,735
		6	-	7	-	3	98.7		6	34	44	15	1	0					175,686	*
24		7	-	3	-	6	94.7		2	19	45	30	5	0					333,403
		6	-	6	-	4	95.3		2	21	45	28	5	0					285,585	*
23		6	-	5	-	5	85.8		0	8	36	41	13	1	0				406,583
		7	-	2	-	7	85.1		0	8	35	42	14	1	0				251,097	*
22		6	-	4	-	6	67.8		0	2	21	45	28	4	0				443,953
		5	-	7	-	4	68.5		0	2	21	45	27	4	0				237,200	*
21		6	-	3	-	7	44.3		0	0	8	36	42	13	1				331,901
		5	-	6	-	5	46.1		0	0	9	37	41	12	1				347,726	*
20		5	-	5	-	6	24.4			0	3	22	46	26	3				406,013
		6	-	2	-	8	23.8			0	2	21	47	26	3				246,083	*
19		5	-	4	-	7	10.3			0	1	10	40	41	9				380,790
		4	-	7	-	5	10.4			0	1	10	40	41	9				225,292	*
18		4	-	6	-	6	3.6			0	0	4	27	50	19				257,916
		5	-	3	-	8	3.5				0	3	27	50	20				283,074	*
17		4	-	5	-	7	1.0				0	1	15	50	34				290,259
		5	-	2	-	9	1.0				0	1	15	50	34				176,061	*
16		4	-	4	-	8	0.2				0	0	7	43	50				244,435	*
		3	-	7	-	6	0.2					0	7	43	50				141,385	*
15		3	-	6	-	7	0.0					0	3	33	65				168,381	*
		4	-	3	-	9	0.0				0	0	3	33	64				138,732
14		3	-	5	-	8	0.0					0	1	22	77				233,459	*
13		3	-	4	-	9	0.0					0	0	14	86				169,889	*
12		3	-	3	-	10	Out						0	8	92				117,842	*
11		2	-	5	-	9	Out						0	4	96				77,701	*
10		2	-	4	-	10	Out						0	2	98				48,551	*
9		2	-	3	-	11	Out							1	99				28,895	*
8		1	-	5	-	10	Out							0	100				15,834	*
7		1	-	4	-	11	Out							0	100				8,064	*
6		1	-	3	-	12	Out							0	100				3,883	*
1	-5						Out								100				2,398	*
0		0	-	0	-	16	Out											100	1,119

Total:							53.9	%	11	13	14	15	16	16	15			0	8,994,720

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W	-	D	-	L	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20

41	-48						100
40		13	-	1	-	2	100	0
39		12	-	3	-	1	99	1	0
38		12	-	2	-	2	99	1	0
37		11	-	4	-	1	98	1	1
36		11	-	3	-	2	97	2	1
35		11	-	2	-	3	94	3	3		0
34		10	-	4	-	2	90	5	5		0
33		10	-	3	-	3	84	7	8	0	0
32		10	-	2	-	4	75	11	14	0	0
31		9	-	4	-	3	63	15	21	0	1		0
30		9	-	3	-	4	49	18	30	0	2	0	0		0
29		8	-	5	-	3	34	21	39	1	6	0	0		0
28		8	-	4	-	4	20	20	45	2	12	0	1		0
27		8	-	3	-	5	9	17	45	5	22	0	2		0
26		7	-	5	-	4	3	12	36	10	33	0	6		0	0
		8	-	2	-	6	3	9	37	8	36	0	7	0	0	0
25		7	-	4	-	5	1	5	22	12	43	1	15	0	1	0
		6	-	7	-	3	1	5	22	13	42	1	15	0	1	0
24		7	-	3	-	6	0	2	9	10	42	3	29	0	5	0
		6	-	6	-	4	0	2	8	12	41	4	28	0	5	0
23		6	-	5	-	5	0	0	2	7	28	7	41	0	13	1	0
		7	-	2	-	7	0	0	2	6	29	6	42	0	14	1	0
22		6	-	4	-	6		0	0	2	13	8	44	1	28	4	0
		5	-	7	-	4		0	0	2	12	9	44	2	27	4	0
21		6	-	3	-	7		0	0	0	3	5	33	3	42	13	1
		5	-	6	-	5		0	0	0	3	6	32	5	41	12	1
20		5	-	5	-	6			0	0	0	2	16	6	46	27	3	0
		6	-	2	-	8				0	0	2	16	5	46	27	3	0
19		5	-	4	-	7				0	0	0	5	4	38	41	10	0
		4	-	7	-	5				0	0	0	5	5	38	42	10	0
18		4	-	6	-	6				0	0	0	1	2	24	49	23	1
		5	-	3	-	8					0	0	1	2	24	49	22	1
17		4	-	5	-	7						0	0	1	12	44	38	5
		5	-	2	-	9						0	0	1	12	45	37	5
16		4	-	4	-	8						0	0	0	5	32	50	13
15		3	-	6	-	7						0		0	1	19	53	26
14		3	-	5	-	8								0	0	10	48	42
13		3	-	4	-	9								0	0	4	37	58
12		3	-	3	-	10									0	2	26	72
11		2	-	5	-	9										0	17	83
10		2	-	4	-	10										0	10	90
9		2	-	3	-	11										0	5	94
8		1	-	5	-	10											3	97
7		1	-	4	-	11											1	99
6		1	-	3	-	12											1	99
5		0	-	5	-	11											0	100
4		0	-	4	-	12											0	100
1	-3																	100
0		0	-	0	-	16																				100

Total:							7	4	10	3	12	2	14	1	15	14	11	7								0