ABC Playoff Chances 2016

Season start, playoff odds unchanged at 70.8%

0 points 0-0-0

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Chances based on how well the ABC finish out the regular season. Explain

									100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W	-	D	-	L	playoffs		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	Count

43	-51						In		100										7,542	*
42		13	-	3	-	1	In		100	0									5,127	*
41		13	-	2	-	2	In		100	0									10,549	*
40		12	-	4	-	1	In		100	0									19,175	*
39		12	-	3	-	2	In		100	0									35,803	*
38		12	-	2	-	3	In		99	1									62,388	*
37		11	-	4	-	2	In		99	1									102,835	*
36		11	-	3	-	3	In		98	2	0								165,704	*
35		11	-	2	-	4	In		96	4	0								252,803	*
34		10	-	4	-	3	In		93	7	0	0							369,467	*
33		10	-	3	-	4	In		88	12	0	0							524,679	*
32		9	-	5	-	3	In		82	18	1	0							709,305	*
31		9	-	4	-	4	In		73	26	2	0							928,630	*
30		9	-	3	-	5	100.0	%	61	35	4	0	0						1,167,685	*
29		8	-	5	-	4	100.0		48	44	8	0	0						872,422
		9	-	2	-	6	100.0		47	44	8	0	0						538,359	*
28		8	-	4	-	5	100.0		33	50	16	1	0						1,102,663
		7	-	7	-	3	100.0		34	50	15	1	0						543,116	*
27		8	-	3	-	6	99.9		20	50	27	3	0						915,987
		7	-	6	-	4	99.9		21	50	26	3	0						935,424	*
26		7	-	5	-	5	99.6		10	42	38	9	0	0					1,269,389
		8	-	2	-	7	99.6		10	42	38	9	0	0					730,162	*
25		7	-	4	-	6	98.0		4	28	46	20	2	0					1,303,790
		6	-	7	-	4	98.3		4	29	46	19	2	0					787,932	*
24		6	-	6	-	5	93.3		1	15	44	34	7	0	0				1,056,486
		7	-	3	-	7	93.0		1	15	44	34	7	0	0				1,043,570	*
23		6	-	5	-	6	80.9		0	5	31	44	17	2	0				1,287,458
		7	-	2	-	8	81.6		0	5	31	45	17	1	0				743,383	*
22		6	-	4	-	7	60.6		0	1	16	43	33	6	0				1,105,797
		5	-	7	-	5	62.0		0	1	16	44	32	6	0				790,733	*
21		5	-	6	-	6	37.6		0	0	6	32	45	17	1				898,499
		6	-	3	-	8	37.7		0	0	6	32	45	17	1				798,211	*
20		5	-	5	-	7	18.2			0	1	17	45	32	5				918,816
		4	-	8	-	5	18.7			0	1	17	45	31	5				546,698	*
19		5	-	4	-	8	7.0			0	0	7	35	45	13				670,736
		4	-	7	-	6	7.2			0	0	7	35	45	12				540,404	*
18		4	-	6	-	7	2.1			0	0	2	22	51	26				963,754	*
17		4	-	5	-	8	0.5				0	0	11	47	42				735,892	*
16		4	-	4	-	9	0.1				0	0	4	37	58				534,732	*
15		3	-	6	-	8	0.0					0	2	26	72				373,949	*
14		3	-	5	-	9	0.0					0	0	16	83				248,429	*
13		3	-	4	-	10	Out						0	9	91				158,048	*
12		2	-	6	-	9	Out						0	5	95				94,902	*
11		2	-	5	-	10	Out						0	2	98				54,316	*
10		2	-	4	-	11	Out							1	99				28,952	*
9		1	-	6	-	10	Out							0	100				14,533	*
8		1	-	5	-	11	Out							0	100				6,848	*
7		1	-	4	-	12	Out							0	100				3,021	*
2	-6						Out								100				1,703	*
0		0	-	0	-	17	Out											100	3,354

Total:							70.8	%	20	19	17	15	12	10	7			0	26,984,160

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W	-	D	-	L	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20

43	-51						100
42		13	-	3	-	1	100	0	0
41		13	-	2	-	2	100	0	0
40		12	-	4	-	1	100	0	0
39		12	-	3	-	2	99	0	0
38		12	-	2	-	3	99	0	1
37		11	-	4	-	2	98	1	1
36		11	-	3	-	3	97	1	2		0
35		11	-	2	-	4	94	2	4		0
34		10	-	4	-	3	90	3	7		0		0
33		10	-	3	-	4	84	4	12	0	0		0
32		9	-	5	-	3	75	6	18	0	1		0
31		9	-	4	-	4	64	9	26	0	2		0
30		9	-	3	-	5	50	11	35	0	4		0		0
29		8	-	5	-	4	35	13	44	0	8	0	0		0
28		8	-	4	-	5	20	13	49	1	16	0	1		0
		7	-	7	-	3	20	14	49	1	15	0	1		0
27		8	-	3	-	6	10	10	47	2	27	0	3		0
		7	-	6	-	4	9	12	47	3	26	0	3		0
26		7	-	5	-	5	3	7	37	5	38	0	9	0	0	0
		8	-	2	-	7	3	7	37	5	38	0	9		0	0
25		7	-	4	-	6	1	3	21	7	45	1	20	0	2	0
		6	-	7	-	4	1	3	21	8	46	1	19	0	2	0
24		6	-	6	-	5	0	1	8	7	41	2	34	0	7	0	0
		7	-	3	-	7	0	1	8	7	42	2	34	0	7	0	0
23		6	-	5	-	6	0	0	2	4	26	5	44	0	17	2	0
		7	-	2	-	8	0	0	2	4	27	4	44	0	17	1	0
22		6	-	4	-	7		0	0	1	11	5	43	1	33	6	0
		5	-	7	-	5		0	0	1	10	6	43	1	32	6	0
21		5	-	6	-	6		0	0	0	2	4	28	3	44	17	1
		6	-	3	-	8		0	0	0	3	3	29	3	45	17	1	0
20		5	-	5	-	7			0	0	0	1	13	4	44	32	5	0
		4	-	8	-	5				0	0	1	13	4	45	32	5	0
19		5	-	4	-	8				0	0	0	4	3	33	45	14	0
18		4	-	6	-	7				0	0	0	1	1	19	49	29	2
17		4	-	5	-	8					0	0	0	0	8	40	44	7
16		4	-	4	-	9						0	0	0	3	26	53	18
15		3	-	6	-	8							0	0	1	14	51	34
14		3	-	5	-	9								0	0	6	42	52
13		3	-	4	-	10									0	2	30	68
12		2	-	6	-	9									0	1	19	80
11		2	-	5	-	10										0	11	89
10		2	-	4	-	11										0	6	94
9		1	-	6	-	10											3	97
8		1	-	5	-	11											1	99
7		1	-	4	-	12											1	99
6		1	-	3	-	13											1	99
5		0	-	5	-	12											0	100
2	-4																	100
0		0	-	0	-	17																				100

Total:							16	4	17	2	16	1	14	1	12	9	6	3								0