Guarani Playoff Chances 2016 50/50Season start, playoff odds unchanged at 40% 0 points 0-0-0 How are these numbers calculated? Big GamesHow we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain If winner is:HomeEmpateAway | Week of 5/21 | 100.0* | Chance in playoffs | 100.0* | Série B | 100.0* | Série D | 100.0* | Average seed | Guarani vs Guaratinguetá | +11.3-2.8-9.2 | | +8.2-2.2-6.4 | | -4.8+0.7+4.3 | | +0.8-0.2-0.7 | | Portuguesa vs Macaé | -0.3+0.7-0.3 | | -0.2+0.6-0.2 | | | | | | Juventude vs Ypiranga-RS | -0.2+0.7-0.3 | | -0.2+0.6-0.2 | | *+0.0-0.1+0.1 | | | | Boa vs Tombense-MG | -0.3+0.7-0.2 | | -0.2+0.6-0.2 | | | | | | Botafogo-SP vs Mogi Mirim | -0.3+0.7-0.3 | | -0.2+0.6-0.2 | | | | | | Salgueiro vs Botafogo-PB | | | | | +0.1-0.1*+0.0 | | | | Cuiabá-MT vs Remo | | | | | *+0.0-0.1+0.1 | | | | | If winner is:HomeEmpateAway | Week of 5/28 | 100.0* | Chance in playoffs | 100.0* | Série B | 100.0* | Série D | 100.0* | Average seed | Tombense-MG vs Guarani | -9.2-2.8+11.3 | | -6.5-2.3+8.2 | | +4.3+0.8-4.8 | | -0.7-0.2+0.8 | | Mogi Mirim vs Portuguesa | -0.3+0.7-0.2 | | -0.2+0.5-0.2 | | | | | | Guaratinguetá vs Juventude | -0.3+0.7-0.3 | | -0.2+0.6-0.2 | | | | | | Ypiranga-RS vs Botafogo-SP | -0.3+0.7-0.3 | | -0.2+0.5-0.2 | | | | | | Macaé vs Boa | -0.3+0.6-0.2 | | -0.2+0.5-0.2 | | | | | |
* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know. What IfChances based on how well the Guarani finish out the regular season. Explain | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | | If finish: | Chance in | Série | Chance will finish regular season at seed | Série | | TP | W | - | L | - | E | playoffs | B | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | D | Count | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 44 | -54 | | In | Yes | 100 | | | | | | | | | | No | 3,339 | * | 43 | | 13 | - | 1 | - | 4 | In | Yes | 100 | 0 | | | | | | | | | No | 2,235 | * | 42 | | 13 | - | 2 | - | 3 | In | Yes | 100 | 0 | | | | | | | | | No | 4,325 | * | 41 | | 13 | - | 3 | - | 2 | In | Yes | 100 | 0 | | | | | | | | | No | 7,354 | * | 40 | | 12 | - | 2 | - | 4 | In | Yes | 99 | 1 | | | | | | | | | No | 12,340 | * | 39 | | 12 | - | 3 | - | 3 | In | Yes | 98 | 2 | | | | | | | | | No | 20,564 | * | 38 | | 11 | - | 2 | - | 5 | In | 100.0 | % | 97 | 3 | 0 | | | | | | | | No | 32,277 | * | 37 | | 11 | - | 3 | - | 4 | In | 100.0 | | 94 | 6 | 0 | | | | | | | | No | 49,013 | * | 36 | | 11 | - | 4 | - | 3 | In | 99.9 | | 90 | 10 | 0 | 0 | | | | | | | No | 72,042 | * | 35 | | 10 | - | 3 | - | 5 | In | 99.4 | | 84 | 15 | 1 | 0 | | | | | | | No | 101,465 | * | 34 | | 10 | - | 4 | - | 4 | In | 98.4 | | 75 | 24 | 2 | 0 | | | | | | | No | 139,756 | * | 33 | | 10 | - | 5 | - | 3 | 100.0 | % | 95.9 | | 63 | 33 | 4 | 0 | 0 | | | | | | No | 187,263 | * | 32 | | 9 | - | 4 | - | 5 | 100.0 | | 90.5 | | 48 | 42 | 9 | 1 | 0 | | | | | | No | 239,291 | * | 31 | | 9 | - | 5 | - | 4 | 99.9 | | 80.5 | | 33 | 48 | 18 | 2 | 0 | 0 | | | | | No | 299,472 | * | 30 | | 9 | - | 6 | - | 3 | 99.6 | | 64.7 | | 19 | 46 | 29 | 6 | 0 | 0 | | | | | No | 172,084 | | | 8 | - | 4 | - | 6 | 99.6 | | 64.6 | | 19 | 46 | 29 | 6 | 0 | 0 | | | | | No | 190,583 | * | 29 | | 8 | - | 5 | - | 5 | 98.1 | | 43.8 | | 9 | 35 | 39 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 0 | | | | No | 270,011 | | | 9 | - | 7 | - | 2 | 98.2 | | 44.5 | | 9 | 36 | 39 | 14 | 2 | 0 | | | | | No | 154,487 | * | 28 | | 8 | - | 6 | - | 4 | 92.7 | | 23.5 | | 3 | 21 | 41 | 28 | 7 | 1 | 0 | | | | No | 295,126 | | | 7 | - | 4 | - | 7 | 92.8 | | 22.9 | | 3 | 20 | 41 | 28 | 7 | 0 | 0 | | | | No | 189,612 | * | 27 | | 7 | - | 5 | - | 6 | 78.2 | | 8.3 | | 0 | 8 | 30 | 39 | 19 | 3 | 0 | 0 | | | No | 275,176 | | | 8 | - | 7 | - | 3 | 79.5 | | 8.6 | | 0 | 8 | 31 | 39 | 18 | 3 | 0 | 0 | | | No | 260,117 | * | 26 | | 7 | - | 6 | - | 5 | 54.0 | | 1.9 | | 0 | 2 | 15 | 37 | 34 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 0 | | No | 571,773 | * | 25 | | 7 | - | 7 | - | 4 | 26.7 | | 0.2 | | 0 | 0 | 4 | 22 | 40 | 26 | 6 | 0 | 0 | | No | 336,541 | | | 6 | - | 5 | - | 7 | 25.2 | | 0.2 | | 0 | 0 | 4 | 21 | 40 | 28 | 6 | 0 | 0 | | No | 256,674 | * | 24 | | 6 | - | 6 | - | 6 | 7.8 | | 0.0 | | | 0 | 1 | 7 | 28 | 40 | 20 | 3 | 0 | | No | 321,836 | | | 7 | - | 8 | - | 3 | 8.1 | | 0.0 | | | 0 | 1 | 8 | 30 | 40 | 19 | 3 | 0 | | No | 277,891 | * | 23 | | 6 | - | 7 | - | 5 | 1.5 | | 0.0 | | | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 35 | 36 | 13 | 1 | 0 | No | 360,609 | | | 5 | - | 5 | - | 8 | 1.3 | | No | | | 0 | 1 | 12 | 35 | 37 | 13 | 1 | 0 | No | 222,206 | * | 22 | | 6 | - | 8 | - | 4 | 0.2 | | No | | | 0 | 0 | 3 | 20 | 41 | 29 | 7 | 0 | 0.0 | % | 294,949 | | | 5 | - | 6 | - | 7 | 0.1 | | No | | | 0 | 0 | 3 | 18 | 40 | 30 | 7 | 0 | 0.0 | | 254,932 | * | 21 | | 5 | - | 7 | - | 6 | 0.0 | | No | | | | 0 | 1 | 7 | 29 | 42 | 20 | 2 | 0.5 | | 274,247 | | | 6 | - | 9 | - | 3 | 0.0 | | No | | | | 0 | 1 | 7 | 29 | 42 | 19 | 2 | 0.4 | | 227,427 | * | 20 | | 5 | - | 8 | - | 5 | Out | No | | | | | 0 | 2 | 15 | 40 | 35 | 8 | 3.3 | | 271,210 | | | 4 | - | 6 | - | 8 | Out | No | | | | | 0 | 2 | 14 | 40 | 36 | 8 | 3.8 | | 172,886 | * | 19 | | 5 | - | 9 | - | 4 | Out | No | | | | | 0 | 0 | 6 | 30 | 46 | 18 | 11.7 | | 197,188 | | | 4 | - | 7 | - | 7 | Out | No | | | | | 0 | 0 | 5 | 28 | 47 | 20 | 15.7 | | 181,578 | * | 18 | | 4 | - | 8 | - | 6 | Out | No | | | | | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 47 | 35 | 34.4 | | 171,568 | | | 5 | - | 10 | - | 3 | Out | No | | | | | | 0 | 2 | 17 | 48 | 34 | 30.9 | | 140,486 | * | 17 | | 4 | - | 9 | - | 5 | Out | No | | | | | | 0 | 0 | 8 | 41 | 51 | 55.9 | | 247,518 | * | 16 | | 4 | - | 10 | - | 4 | Out | No | | | | | | | 0 | 3 | 31 | 66 | 75.5 | | 188,604 | * | 15 | | 3 | - | 9 | - | 6 | Out | No | | | | | | | 0 | 1 | 20 | 79 | 88.4 | | 138,735 | * | 14 | | 3 | - | 10 | - | 5 | Out | No | | | | | | | | 0 | 13 | 87 | 95.4 | | 97,864 | * | 13 | | 3 | - | 11 | - | 4 | Out | No | | | | | | | | 0 | 7 | 93 | 98.4 | | 65,882 | * | 12 | | 2 | - | 10 | - | 6 | Out | No | | | | | | | | 0 | 4 | 96 | 99.5 | | 42,971 | * | 11 | | 2 | - | 11 | - | 5 | Out | No | | | | | | | | | 2 | 98 | 99.8 | | 26,050 | * | 10 | | 2 | - | 12 | - | 4 | Out | No | | | | | | | | | 1 | 99 | 100.0 | | 15,082 | * | 9 | | 1 | - | 11 | - | 6 | Out | No | | | | | | | | | 0 | 100 | Yes | 8,189 | * | 8 | | 1 | - | 12 | - | 5 | Out | No | | | | | | | | | 0 | 100 | Yes | 4,256 | * | 0 | -7 | | Out | No | | | | | | | | | | 100 | Yes | 4,436 | * | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Total: | 40.0 | % | 20.0 | % | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10.0 | % | 8,351,520 | |
* Row combines multiple less frequent records. Chance Will Make Playoffs
LotteryYe of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds. Big GamesIf winner is:HomeEmpateAway | Week of 5/21 | 100.0* | Lottery seed | Guarani vs Guaratinguetá | -1.6+0.4+1.3 | | Juventude vs Ypiranga-RS | +0.0-0.1+0.0 | | Portuguesa vs Macaé | +0.0-0.1+0.0 | | Boa vs Tombense-MG | +0.0-0.1+0.0 | | Botafogo-SP vs Mogi Mirim | +0.0-0.1+0.0 | | | If winner is:HomeEmpateAway | Week of 5/28 | 100.0* | Lottery seed | Tombense-MG vs Guarani | +1.3+0.4-1.6 | | Mogi Mirim vs Portuguesa | +0.0-0.1+0.0 | | Ypiranga-RS vs Botafogo-SP | +0.0-0.1+0.0 | | Guaratinguetá vs Juventude | +0.0-0.1+0.0 | | Macaé vs Boa | +0.0-0.1+0.0 | |
What If | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | If finish: | Chance will finish season at seed | TP | W | - | L | - | E | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 47 | -54 | | 100 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 46 | | 15 | - | 2 | - | 1 | 100 | 0 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 45 | | 14 | - | 1 | - | 3 | 100 | 0 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 44 | | 14 | - | 2 | - | 2 | 100 | 0 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 43 | | 13 | - | 1 | - | 4 | 100 | 0 | 0 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 42 | | 13 | - | 2 | - | 3 | 98 | 1 | 0 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 41 | | 13 | - | 3 | - | 2 | 98 | 1 | 0 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 40 | | 12 | - | 2 | - | 4 | 96 | 3 | 1 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 39 | | 12 | - | 3 | - | 3 | 94 | 5 | 2 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 38 | | 11 | - | 2 | - | 5 | 89 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 0 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 37 | | 11 | - | 3 | - | 4 | 83 | 12 | 6 | 0 | 0 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 36 | | 11 | - | 4 | - | 3 | 73 | 17 | 10 | 0 | 0 | | 0 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 35 | | 10 | - | 3 | - | 5 | 61 | 23 | 15 | 0 | 1 | | 0 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 34 | | 10 | - | 4 | - | 4 | 45 | 30 | 22 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 33 | | 10 | - | 5 | - | 3 | 30 | 33 | 30 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | | 0 | | | | | | | | | | | | 32 | | 9 | - | 4 | - | 5 | 16 | 32 | 34 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | | | | | | | | | | | | 31 | | 9 | - | 5 | - | 4 | 7 | 26 | 31 | 17 | 16 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | | | | | | | | | | 30 | | 9 | - | 6 | - | 3 | 2 | 17 | 21 | 24 | 24 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | | | | | | | | | | 29 | | 8 | - | 5 | - | 5 | 0 | 8 | 10 | 26 | 26 | 13 | 14 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | | | | | | | | | | 28 | | 8 | - | 6 | - | 4 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 18 | 20 | 21 | 23 | 5 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | | | | | | | | | | 7 | - | 4 | - | 7 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 18 | 17 | 25 | 22 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | | | | | | | | | 27 | | 7 | - | 5 | - | 6 | | 0 | 0 | 8 | 6 | 24 | 22 | 18 | 16 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | | | | | | | 8 | - | 7 | - | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 8 | 23 | 26 | 14 | 16 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | | | | | | | 26 | | 7 | - | 6 | - | 5 | | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 13 | 24 | 24 | 15 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | | | | | 25 | | 7 | - | 7 | - | 4 | | 0 | | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 19 | 21 | 27 | 17 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | | | | | 6 | - | 5 | - | 7 | | 0 | | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 19 | 15 | 26 | 21 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | | | 24 | | 6 | - | 6 | - | 6 | | | | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 5 | 17 | 27 | 24 | 13 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | | | 7 | - | 8 | - | 3 | | | | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 7 | 21 | 28 | 22 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | | | | 23 | | 6 | - | 7 | - | 5 | | | | 0 | | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 16 | 26 | 26 | 17 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | | | | 5 | - | 5 | - | 8 | | | | | | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 15 | 26 | 27 | 17 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | | | 22 | | 6 | - | 8 | - | 4 | | | | | | 0 | | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 25 | 28 | 19 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | 5 | - | 6 | - | 7 | | | | | | 0 | | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 21 | 28 | 23 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21 | | 5 | - | 7 | - | 6 | | | | | | | | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 19 | 29 | 25 | 13 | 4 | 0 | 0 | | 6 | - | 9 | - | 3 | | | | | | | | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 22 | 29 | 23 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 20 | | 5 | - | 8 | - | 5 | | | | | | | | | | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 19 | 29 | 26 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 19 | | 5 | - | 9 | - | 4 | | | | | | | | | | | | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 20 | 31 | 27 | 12 | 2 | 18 | | 4 | - | 8 | - | 6 | | | | | | | | | | | | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 23 | 34 | 26 | 7 | 17 | | 4 | - | 9 | - | 5 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 30 | 38 | 18 | 16 | | 4 | - | 10 | - | 4 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 20 | 43 | 33 | 15 | | 3 | - | 9 | - | 6 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 38 | 50 | 14 | | 3 | - | 10 | - | 5 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 0 | 0 | 4 | 29 | 66 | 13 | | 3 | - | 11 | - | 4 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 0 | 2 | 20 | 78 | 12 | | 2 | - | 10 | - | 6 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 0 | 0 | 12 | 87 | 11 | | 2 | - | 11 | - | 5 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 0 | 7 | 93 | 10 | | 2 | - | 12 | - | 4 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 0 | 4 | 96 | 9 | | 1 | - | 11 | - | 6 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 2 | 98 | 8 | | 1 | - | 12 | - | 5 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1 | 99 | 7 | | 1 | - | 13 | - | 4 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 0 | 100 | 6 | | 1 | - | 14 | - | 3 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 0 | 100 | 0 | -5 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 100 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Total: | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
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