How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

If winner is:HomeEmpateAway
Week of 5/21100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Série B100.0*Série D100.0*Average seed
Botafogo-SP vs Mogi Mirim+11.3-2.7-9.2
+8.2-2.2-6.4
-4.8+0.8+4.3
+0.8-0.2-0.7
Boa vs Tombense-MG-0.3+0.7-0.3
-0.2+0.6-0.2
*+0.0-0.1+0.1
Guarani vs Guaratinguetá-0.3+0.7-0.3
-0.2+0.6-0.2
Juventude vs Ypiranga-RS-0.2+0.7-0.3
-0.2+0.6-0.2
Portuguesa vs Macaé-0.2+0.6-0.3
-0.2+0.5-0.2
Fortaleza vs River-PI*+0.0-0.1+0.1
If winner is:HomeEmpateAway
Week of 5/28100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Série B100.0*Série D100.0*Average seed
Ypiranga-RS vs Botafogo-SP-9.2-2.8+11.3
-6.4-2.3+8.2
+4.2+0.8-4.8
-0.7-0.2+0.8
Mogi Mirim vs Portuguesa-0.3+0.7-0.3
-0.2+0.6-0.2
Tombense-MG vs Guarani-0.2+0.7-0.3
-0.2+0.6-0.2
Macaé vs Boa-0.3+0.7-0.3
-0.2+0.5-0.2
Guaratinguetá vs Juventude-0.2+0.7-0.3
-0.2+0.5-0.2
Remo vs ASA+0.1-0.1*+0.0
River-PI vs América-RN+0.1-0.1*+0.0
Confiança vs Fortaleza*+0.0-0.1+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Botafogo-SP finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inSérieChance will finish regular season at seedSérie
TPW-L-EplayoffsB12345678910DCount
45-54InYes100No2,175*
4414-2-2InYes1000No1,181*
4313-1-4InYes1000No2,187*
4213-2-3InYes1000No4,248*
4113-3-2InYes1000No7,386*
4012-2-4InYes991No12,509*
3912-3-3InYes982No20,770*
3811-2-5In100.0%9730No32,103*
3711-3-4In99.99460No48,604*
3611-4-3In99.890100No71,956*
3510-3-5In99.5841610No101,567*
3410-4-4In98.4752420No139,573*
3310-5-3100.0%95.96333400No186,295*
329-4-5100.090.64842910No239,251*
319-5-499.980.5334717200No299,732*
309-6-399.664.8194629600No172,290
8-4-699.664.8194629600No190,894*
298-5-598.144.28363915200No426,141*
288-6-492.723.43214128710No294,178
7-4-792.923.03204228700No189,293*
277-5-678.28.308304019300No274,534
8-7-379.58.718313918300No259,339*
267-6-553.91.90215373411100No359,593
8-8-254.21.7021538341110No212,610*
257-7-426.80.204224026600No384,506*
6-5-724.90.2004214028700No210,008
246-6-67.70.0017284021400No321,143
7-8-38.10.0018294019300No276,323*
236-7-51.50.00011235361310No360,174
5-5-81.3No0112353713100.0%222,238*
226-8-40.2No003204129700.0295,880
5-6-70.1No003194030700.0255,320*
215-7-60.0No01729422020.5275,719
6-9-30.0No01730421920.4227,393*
205-8-50.0No00215403683.5443,495*
195-9-4OutNo00630461811.6195,783
4-7-7OutNo00528472015.8182,303*
184-8-6OutNo0216483432.8311,293*
174-9-5OutNo008415155.8248,194*
164-10-4OutNo03316675.3189,396*
153-9-6OutNo01207988.5138,813*
143-10-5OutNo0128795.397,760*
133-11-4OutNo079398.366,552*
122-10-6OutNo049699.542,602*
112-11-5OutNo29899.926,136*
102-12-4OutNo199Yes15,168*
91-11-6OutNo0100Yes8,220*
81-12-5OutNo0100Yes4,270*
71-13-4OutNo0100Yes2,026*
0-6OutNo100Yes2,396*
Total:40.0%20.0%1010101010101010101010.0%8,351,520

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeEmpateAway
Week of 5/21100.0*Lottery seed
Botafogo-SP vs Mogi Mirim-1.6+0.4+1.3
Boa vs Tombense-MG+0.0-0.1+0.0
Guarani vs Guaratinguetá+0.0-0.1+0.0
Juventude vs Ypiranga-RS+0.0-0.1+0.0
Portuguesa vs Macaé+0.0-0.1+0.0
If winner is:HomeEmpateAway
Week of 5/28100.0*Lottery seed
Ypiranga-RS vs Botafogo-SP+1.3+0.4-1.6
Mogi Mirim vs Portuguesa+0.0-0.1+0.0
Tombense-MG vs Guarani+0.0-0.1+0.0
Macaé vs Boa+0.0-0.1+0.0
Guaratinguetá vs Juventude+0.0-0.1+0.0

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPW-L-E1234567891011121314151617181920
46-54100
4514-1-31000
4414-2-29910
4313-1-49910
4213-2-39910
4113-3-29810
4012-2-49631
3912-3-39452
3811-2-589730
3711-3-48212600
3611-4-373171000
3510-3-5602415010
3410-4-44530221200
3310-5-330332944000
329-4-5163234990100
319-5-472631171612000
309-6-321721252456000
298-5-50810262613141200
288-6-40331820212357100
7-4-70321817252266100
277-5-6000862422181651000
8-7-301088232614164000
267-6-50021141324241551000
257-7-400441920271772000
6-5-70004219152621103000
246-6-601075172725145100
7-8-300107822282193000
236-7-5000115162626176100
5-5-8001151526271772000
226-8-40000141324281982000
5-6-70000310212823113000
215-7-600002819282513410
6-9-3000031022292311300
205-8-50000271929261330
195-9-400028213225102
4-7-700016183129132
184-8-6000282334267
174-9-5000211303818
164-10-40004204233
153-9-6001103850
143-10-500042966
133-11-40022079
122-10-6001287
112-11-500793
102-12-4496
91-11-6298
81-12-5199
71-13-40100
61-14-3199
0-5100
Total:55555555555555555555