ASA Playoff Chances 2016 50/50

Season start, playoff odds unchanged at 40%

0 points 0-0-0

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

If winner is:HomeEmpateAway
Week of 5/21	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Série B	100.0*	Série D	100.0*	Average seed
ASA vs Confiança	+11.3-2.8-9.2		+8.2-2.2-6.4		-4.8+0.8+4.2		+0.8-0.2-0.7
Salgueiro vs Botafogo-PB	-0.3+0.7-0.3		-0.2+0.6-0.2
América-RN vs ABC	-0.3+0.7-0.3		-0.2+0.6-0.2
Fortaleza vs River-PI	-0.3+0.7-0.2		-0.2+0.6-0.2
Cuiabá-MT vs Remo	-0.3+0.7-0.2		-0.2+0.6-0.2
Botafogo-SP vs Mogi Mirim					*+0.0-0.1+0.1
Juventude vs Ypiranga-RS					*+0.0-0.1+0.0

If winner is:HomeEmpateAway
Week of 5/28	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Série B	100.0*	Série D	100.0*	Average seed
Remo vs ASA	-9.2-2.8+11.3		-6.5-2.3+8.2		+4.3+0.8-4.8		-0.7-0.2+0.8
Confiança vs Fortaleza	-0.3+0.6-0.2		-0.2+0.5-0.2		+0.0-0.1*+0.0
Botafogo-PB vs Cuiabá-MT	-0.3+0.7-0.3		-0.2+0.6-0.2
River-PI vs América-RN	-0.3+0.7-0.3		-0.2+0.5-0.2
ABC vs Salgueiro	-0.2+0.7-0.3		-0.2+0.6-0.2
Ypiranga-RS vs Botafogo-SP					+0.1-0.1*+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the ASA finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Série		Chance will finish regular season at seed										Série
TP		W	-	L	-	E	playoffs		B		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	D		Count

44	-54						In		Yes		100										No		3,285	*
43		13	-	1	-	4	In		Yes		100	0									No		2,338	*
42		13	-	2	-	3	In		Yes		100	0									No		4,270	*
41		13	-	3	-	2	In		Yes		100	0									No		7,472	*
40		12	-	2	-	4	In		Yes		99	1									No		12,506	*
39		12	-	3	-	3	In		Yes		98	2									No		20,621	*
38		11	-	2	-	5	In		100.0	%	97	3	0								No		31,831	*
37		11	-	3	-	4	In		99.9		94	6	0								No		48,439	*
36		11	-	4	-	3	In		99.8		90	10	0								No		71,964	*
35		10	-	3	-	5	In		99.4		84	16	1	0							No		100,960	*
34		10	-	4	-	4	In		98.4		75	23	2	0							No		139,774	*
33		10	-	5	-	3	100.0	%	96.0		63	33	4	0	0						No		186,489	*
32		9	-	4	-	5	100.0		90.6		49	42	9	1	0						No		239,472	*
31		9	-	5	-	4	99.9		80.6		33	48	17	2	0	0					No		299,142	*
30		8	-	4	-	6	99.6		64.6		19	46	29	6	0	0					No		190,743	*
		9	-	6	-	3	99.6		64.7		19	46	29	6	0	0	0				No		171,819
29		8	-	5	-	5	98.1		43.9		9	35	39	15	2	0	0				No		270,169
		9	-	7	-	2	98.2		44.4		8	36	39	14	2	0					No		154,607	*
28		8	-	6	-	4	92.8		23.6		3	21	41	28	7	1	0				No		294,984
		7	-	4	-	7	92.7		22.8		3	20	42	28	7	0	0				No		189,461	*
27		7	-	5	-	6	78.3		8.3		0	8	31	39	19	3	0	0			No		275,245
		8	-	7	-	3	79.6		8.8		1	8	31	39	18	3	0	0			No		259,612	*
26		7	-	6	-	5	53.8		1.9		0	2	15	37	34	11	1	0	0		No		360,432
		8	-	8	-	2	54.1		1.7		0	2	15	38	34	11	1	0			No		212,083	*
25		7	-	7	-	4	26.9		0.2		0	0	4	22	40	26	6	0	0		No		338,055
		6	-	5	-	7	25.2		0.2		0	0	4	21	40	28	6	0	0		No		258,149	*
24		6	-	6	-	6	7.8		0.0			0	1	7	28	40	20	3	0		No		326,649	*
		7	-	8	-	3	8.2		0.0			0	1	8	30	40	19	3	0	0	No		271,240	*
23		6	-	7	-	5	1.5		0.0			0	0	1	12	35	36	13	1	0	No		360,194
		5	-	5	-	8	1.3		No				0	1	12	36	37	13	1	0	No		222,009	*
22		6	-	8	-	4	0.2		No				0	0	3	20	41	29	7	0	0.0	%	295,482
		5	-	6	-	7	0.1		No				0	0	3	19	40	31	7	0	0.0		254,500	*
21		5	-	7	-	6	0.0		No					0	1	7	28	42	20	2	0.5		274,773
		6	-	9	-	3	0.0		No					0	0	7	30	42	19	2	0.3		227,727	*
20		5	-	8	-	5	0.0		No					0	0	2	15	40	35	8	3.3		270,875
		4	-	6	-	8	0.0		No					0	0	2	14	40	36	8	3.8		172,889	*
19		5	-	9	-	4	Out		No						0	0	6	29	46	18	11.7		196,989
		4	-	7	-	7	Out		No						0	0	5	28	47	20	15.8		181,850	*
18		4	-	8	-	6	Out		No						0	0	2	16	48	34	32.7		311,540	*
17		4	-	9	-	5	Out		No							0	0	8	41	51	55.9		246,827	*
16		4	-	10	-	4	Out		No								0	3	31	66	75.7		189,581	*
15		3	-	9	-	6	Out		No								0	1	20	78	88.5		139,740	*
14		3	-	10	-	5	Out		No								0	0	12	87	95.4		97,695	*
13		3	-	11	-	4	Out		No									0	7	93	98.4		66,202	*
12		2	-	10	-	6	Out		No									0	4	96	99.5		42,592	*
11		2	-	11	-	5	Out		No										2	98	99.9		26,167	*
10		2	-	12	-	4	Out		No										1	99	100.0		15,138	*
9		1	-	11	-	6	Out		No										0	100	Yes		8,259	*
8		1	-	12	-	5	Out		No										0	100	Yes		4,180	*
0	-7						Out		No											100	Yes		4,500	*

Total:							40.0	%	20.0	%	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10.0	%	8,351,520

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeEmpateAway
Week of 5/21	100.0*	Lottery seed
ASA vs Confiança	-1.6+0.4+1.3
América-RN vs ABC	+0.0-0.1+0.0
Fortaleza vs River-PI	+0.0-0.1+0.0
Salgueiro vs Botafogo-PB	+0.0-0.1+0.0
Cuiabá-MT vs Remo	+0.0-0.1+0.0

If winner is:HomeEmpateAway
Week of 5/28	100.0*	Lottery seed
Remo vs ASA	+1.3+0.4-1.6
Confiança vs Fortaleza	+0.0-0.1+0.0
River-PI vs América-RN	+0.0-0.1+0.0
Botafogo-PB vs Cuiabá-MT	+0.0-0.1+0.0
ABC vs Salgueiro	+0.0-0.1+0.0

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W	-	L	-	E	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20

45	-54						100
44		14	-	2	-	2	100	0
43		13	-	1	-	4	99	1	0
42		13	-	2	-	3	99	1	0
41		13	-	3	-	2	98	2	0
40		12	-	2	-	4	97	3	1
39		12	-	3	-	3	94	5	2
38		11	-	2	-	5	89	8	3	0	0
37		11	-	3	-	4	82	12	6	0	0
36		11	-	4	-	3	73	17	10	0	0
35		10	-	3	-	5	60	24	15	0	1	0	0
34		10	-	4	-	4	45	30	22	1	2	0	0
33		10	-	5	-	3	30	33	29	4	4	0	0		0
32		9	-	4	-	5	16	32	33	9	9	0	1	0	0
31		9	-	5	-	4	7	26	31	17	16	1	2	0	0	0
30		8	-	4	-	6	2	17	21	25	24	5	6	0	0	0	0
29		8	-	5	-	5	0	8	10	26	26	13	14	1	2	0	0
28		8	-	6	-	4	0	3	3	18	20	21	23	5	6	1	0	0
		7	-	4	-	7	0	3	2	18	17	25	22	6	7	1	0	0
27		7	-	5	-	6	0	0	0	8	6	24	22	18	16	5	1	0	0	0
		8	-	7	-	3	0	1	0	8	9	23	26	14	16	4	0	0	0
26		7	-	6	-	5		0	0	2	1	13	13	24	24	15	5	1	0	0	0
25		7	-	7	-	4		0	0	0	0	4	4	19	20	27	17	7	2	0	0	0
		6	-	5	-	7		0		0	0	4	2	19	16	26	21	9	3	0	0	0
24		6	-	6	-	6				0	0	1	0	7	5	17	27	24	13	4	1	0	0
		7	-	8	-	3				0	0	1	0	7	7	21	28	22	11	3	1	0	0	0
23		6	-	7	-	5				0		0	0	1	1	5	16	26	26	16	6	1	0	0
		5	-	5	-	8						0	0	1	1	5	15	25	27	17	7	2	0	0
22		6	-	8	-	4						0		0	0	1	4	13	25	28	19	8	2	0	0	0
		5	-	6	-	7						0	0	0	0	0	3	10	21	28	23	11	3	0	0	0
21		5	-	7	-	6								0		0	0	2	8	19	28	26	13	4	1	0
		6	-	9	-	3								0	0	0	1	3	11	23	29	21	9	2	0	0
20		5	-	8	-	5								0	0	0	0	0	2	8	19	30	26	12	3	0
		4	-	6	-	8								0		0	0	0	2	7	18	29	27	14	3	0
19		5	-	9	-	4											0	0	0	2	8	21	31	25	10	2
		4	-	7	-	7												0	0	1	6	18	31	29	13	2
18		4	-	8	-	6												0	0	0	2	8	23	35	26	7
17		4	-	9	-	5													0	0	0	2	11	30	38	18
16		4	-	10	-	4														0	0	0	4	20	43	33
15		3	-	9	-	6															0	0	1	10	38	50
14		3	-	10	-	5																0	0	4	29	66
13		3	-	11	-	4																	0	2	20	78
12		2	-	10	-	6																	0	1	12	87
11		2	-	11	-	5																	0	0	7	93
10		2	-	12	-	4																		0	4	96
9		1	-	11	-	6																			2	98
8		1	-	12	-	5																			1	99
7		1	-	13	-	4																			0	100
6		1	-	14	-	3																			1	99
0	-5																									100

Total:							5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5