ASA Playoff Chances 2016Season start, playoff odds unchanged at 40% 0 points 0-0-0 How are these numbers calculated? Big GamesHow we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain If winner is:HomeEmpateAway | Week of 5/21 | 100.0* | Chance in playoffs | 100.0* | Série B | 100.0* | Série D | 100.0* | Average seed | ASA vs Confiança | +11.2-2.9-9.3 | | +8.1-2.4-6.5 | | -4.8+0.8+4.3 | | +0.8-0.2-0.7 | | Salgueiro vs Botafogo-PB | -0.3+0.7-0.3 | | -0.2+0.6-0.2 | | | | | | América-RN vs ABC | -0.3+0.7-0.3 | | -0.2+0.5-0.2 | | +0.0-0.1+0.0 | | | | Fortaleza vs River-PI | -0.3+0.7-0.3 | | -0.2+0.6-0.2 | | +0.0-0.1*+0.0 | | | | Cuiabá-MT vs Remo | -0.2+0.7-0.3 | | -0.2+0.5-0.2 | | *+0.0-0.1+0.0 | | | | Guarani vs Guaratinguetá | | | | | +0.0-0.1+0.0 | | | | Boa vs Tombense-MG | | | | | +0.0-0.1+0.0 | | | | Portuguesa vs Macaé | | | | | +0.0-0.1+0.0 | | | | Botafogo-SP vs Mogi Mirim | | | | | +0.0-0.1+0.0 | | | | Juventude vs Ypiranga-RS | | | | | +0.0-0.1+0.0 | | | | | If winner is:HomeEmpateAway | Week of 5/28 | 100.0* | Chance in playoffs | 100.0* | Série B | 100.0* | Série D | 100.0* | Average seed | Remo vs ASA | -9.1-2.6+11.4 | | -6.4-2.2+8.3 | | +4.2+0.7-4.9 | | -0.7-0.2+0.8 | | Botafogo-PB vs Cuiabá-MT | -0.3+0.7-0.3 | | -0.2+0.6-0.2 | | +0.0-0.1+0.0 | | | | River-PI vs América-RN | -0.3+0.7-0.3 | | -0.2+0.6-0.2 | | +0.0-0.1*+0.0 | | | | ABC vs Salgueiro | -0.3+0.7-0.3 | | -0.2+0.6-0.2 | | +0.0-0.1*+0.0 | | | | Confiança vs Fortaleza | -0.2+0.7-0.3 | | -0.2+0.5-0.2 | | | | | | Guaratinguetá vs Juventude | | | | | +0.0-0.1+0.0 | | | | Mogi Mirim vs Portuguesa | | | | | +0.0-0.1+0.0 | | | | Ypiranga-RS vs Botafogo-SP | | | | | +0.0-0.1+0.0 | | | | Macaé vs Boa | | | | | *+0.0-0.1+0.0 | | | | Tombense-MG vs Guarani | | | | | +0.0-0.1*+0.0 | | | |
* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know. What IfChances based on how well the ASA finish out the regular season. Explain | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | | If finish: | Chance in | Série | Chance will finish regular season at seed | Série | | TP | W | - | L | - | E | playoffs | B | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | D | Count | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 45 | -54 | | In | Yes | 100 | | | | | | | | | | No | 6,156 | * | 44 | | 14 | - | 2 | - | 2 | In | Yes | 100 | 0 | | | | | | | | | No | 3,507 | * | 43 | | 13 | - | 1 | - | 4 | In | Yes | 100 | 0 | | | | | | | | | No | 6,514 | * | 42 | | 13 | - | 2 | - | 3 | In | Yes | 100 | 0 | | | | | | | | | No | 12,283 | * | 41 | | 13 | - | 3 | - | 2 | In | Yes | 100 | 0 | | | | | | | | | No | 21,800 | * | 40 | | 12 | - | 2 | - | 4 | In | Yes | 99 | 1 | | | | | | | | | No | 36,752 | * | 39 | | 12 | - | 3 | - | 3 | In | Yes | 98 | 2 | | | | | | | | | No | 60,338 | * | 38 | | 11 | - | 2 | - | 5 | In | 100.0 | % | 97 | 3 | 0 | | | | | | | | No | 93,873 | * | 37 | | 11 | - | 3 | - | 4 | In | 99.9 | | 94 | 6 | 0 | | | | | | | | No | 143,097 | * | 36 | | 11 | - | 4 | - | 3 | In | 99.8 | | 90 | 10 | 0 | 0 | | | | | | | No | 210,272 | * | 35 | | 10 | - | 3 | - | 5 | In | 99.5 | | 84 | 16 | 1 | 0 | | | | | | | No | 297,739 | * | 34 | | 10 | - | 4 | - | 4 | In | 98.4 | | 75 | 23 | 2 | 0 | | | | | | | No | 408,807 | * | 33 | | 10 | - | 5 | - | 3 | 100.0 | % | 95.9 | | 63 | 33 | 4 | 0 | 0 | | | | | | No | 545,167 | * | 32 | | 9 | - | 4 | - | 5 | 100.0 | | 90.5 | | 49 | 42 | 9 | 1 | 0 | | | | | | No | 701,235 | * | 31 | | 9 | - | 5 | - | 4 | 99.9 | | 80.5 | | 33 | 47 | 18 | 2 | 0 | 0 | | | | | No | 872,597 | * | 30 | | 9 | - | 6 | - | 3 | 99.6 | | 64.8 | | 19 | 46 | 29 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | | | No | 502,197 | | | 8 | - | 4 | - | 6 | 99.6 | | 64.6 | | 19 | 46 | 29 | 6 | 0 | 0 | | | | | No | 556,402 | * | 29 | | 8 | - | 5 | - | 5 | 98.1 | | 43.9 | | 8 | 35 | 39 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 0 | | | | No | 789,425 | | | 9 | - | 7 | - | 2 | 98.2 | | 44.3 | | 8 | 36 | 40 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 0 | | | | No | 452,367 | * | 28 | | 8 | - | 6 | - | 4 | 92.8 | | 23.3 | | 3 | 21 | 41 | 28 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | | | No | 1,418,377 | * | 27 | | 7 | - | 5 | - | 6 | 78.3 | | 8.4 | | 0 | 8 | 30 | 40 | 19 | 3 | 0 | 0 | | | No | 802,972 | | | 8 | - | 7 | - | 3 | 79.5 | | 8.7 | | 0 | 8 | 31 | 39 | 18 | 3 | 0 | 0 | | | No | 759,003 | * | 26 | | 7 | - | 6 | - | 5 | 53.9 | | 1.9 | | 0 | 2 | 15 | 37 | 34 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 0 | | No | 1,052,324 | | | 8 | - | 8 | - | 2 | 54.3 | | 1.7 | | 0 | 2 | 15 | 38 | 34 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 0 | | No | 619,149 | * | 25 | | 7 | - | 7 | - | 4 | 26.7 | | 0.2 | | 0 | 0 | 4 | 22 | 40 | 26 | 6 | 0 | 0 | | No | 984,788 | | | 6 | - | 5 | - | 7 | 25.1 | | 0.2 | | 0 | 0 | 4 | 21 | 40 | 28 | 6 | 0 | 0 | | No | 752,549 | * | 24 | | 6 | - | 6 | - | 6 | 7.8 | | 0.0 | | | 0 | 1 | 7 | 28 | 40 | 20 | 3 | 0 | 0 | No | 938,970 | | | 7 | - | 8 | - | 3 | 8.1 | | 0.0 | | | 0 | 1 | 8 | 30 | 40 | 19 | 3 | 0 | 0 | No | 809,113 | * | 23 | | 6 | - | 7 | - | 5 | 1.5 | | 0.0 | | | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 35 | 36 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | % | 1,068,540 | * | | 5 | - | 5 | - | 8 | 1.3 | | No | | | 0 | 1 | 12 | 35 | 37 | 13 | 1 | 0 | No | 633,052 | * | 22 | | 6 | - | 8 | - | 4 | 0.2 | | No | | | 0 | 0 | 3 | 20 | 40 | 29 | 7 | 0 | 0.0 | | 864,499 | | | 5 | - | 6 | - | 7 | 0.1 | | No | | | 0 | 0 | 3 | 19 | 40 | 31 | 7 | 0 | 0.0 | | 745,022 | * | 21 | | 5 | - | 7 | - | 6 | 0.0 | | No | | | | 0 | 0 | 7 | 29 | 42 | 20 | 2 | 0.5 | | 805,064 | | | 6 | - | 9 | - | 3 | 0.0 | | No | | | | 0 | 1 | 7 | 30 | 42 | 19 | 2 | 0.4 | | 664,340 | * | 20 | | 5 | - | 8 | - | 5 | 0.0 | | No | | | | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 40 | 36 | 8 | 3.5 | | 1,297,307 | * | 19 | | 5 | - | 9 | - | 4 | Out | No | | | | | 0 | 0 | 6 | 30 | 46 | 18 | 11.7 | | 575,248 | | | 4 | - | 7 | - | 7 | Out | No | | | | | 0 | 0 | 5 | 28 | 47 | 20 | 15.8 | | 532,446 | * | 18 | | 4 | - | 8 | - | 6 | Out | No | | | | | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 48 | 34 | 32.7 | | 910,934 | * | 17 | | 4 | - | 9 | - | 5 | Out | No | | | | | | 0 | 0 | 8 | 41 | 51 | 55.8 | | 724,010 | * | 16 | | 4 | - | 10 | - | 4 | Out | No | | | | | | 0 | 0 | 3 | 31 | 66 | 75.6 | | 552,382 | * | 15 | | 3 | - | 9 | - | 6 | Out | No | | | | | | | 0 | 1 | 20 | 79 | 88.5 | | 407,168 | * | 14 | | 3 | - | 10 | - | 5 | Out | No | | | | | | | | 0 | 12 | 87 | 95.4 | | 285,735 | * | 13 | | 3 | - | 11 | - | 4 | Out | No | | | | | | | | 0 | 7 | 93 | 98.4 | | 193,474 | * | 12 | | 2 | - | 10 | - | 6 | Out | No | | | | | | | | 0 | 4 | 96 | 99.5 | | 124,596 | * | 11 | | 2 | - | 11 | - | 5 | Out | No | | | | | | | | 0 | 2 | 98 | 99.9 | | 75,973 | * | 10 | | 2 | - | 12 | - | 4 | Out | No | | | | | | | | | 1 | 99 | 100.0 | | 44,107 | * | 9 | | 1 | - | 11 | - | 6 | Out | No | | | | | | | | | 0 | 100 | 100.0 | | 24,229 | * | 8 | | 1 | - | 12 | - | 5 | Out | No | | | | | | | | | 0 | 100 | Yes | 12,465 | * | 7 | | 1 | - | 13 | - | 4 | Out | No | | | | | | | | | 0 | 100 | Yes | 5,971 | * | 0 | -6 | | Out | No | | | | | | | | | | 100 | Yes | 7,025 | * | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Total: | 40.0 | % | 20.0 | % | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10.0 | % | 24,411,360 | |
* Row combines multiple less frequent records. Chance Will Make Playoffs
LotteryYe of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds. Big GamesIf winner is:HomeEmpateAway | Week of 5/21 | 100.0* | Lottery seed | ASA vs Confiança | -1.6+0.4+1.4 | | Salgueiro vs Botafogo-PB | +0.0-0.1+0.0 | | Fortaleza vs River-PI | +0.0-0.1+0.0 | | América-RN vs ABC | +0.0-0.1+0.0 | | Cuiabá-MT vs Remo | +0.0-0.1+0.0 | | | If winner is:HomeEmpateAway | Week of 5/28 | 100.0* | Lottery seed | Remo vs ASA | +1.3+0.4-1.7 | | Botafogo-PB vs Cuiabá-MT | +0.0-0.1+0.0 | | River-PI vs América-RN | +0.0-0.1+0.0 | | ABC vs Salgueiro | +0.0-0.1+0.0 | | Confiança vs Fortaleza | +0.0-0.1+0.0 | |
What If | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | If finish: | Chance will finish season at seed | TP | W | - | L | - | E | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 49 | -54 | | 100 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 48 | | 15 | - | 0 | - | 3 | 99 | 1 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 47 | | 15 | - | 1 | - | 2 | 100 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 46 | | 15 | - | 2 | - | 1 | 100 | 0 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 45 | | 14 | - | 1 | - | 3 | 100 | 0 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 44 | | 14 | - | 2 | - | 2 | 100 | 0 | 0 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 43 | | 13 | - | 1 | - | 4 | 99 | 1 | 0 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 42 | | 13 | - | 2 | - | 3 | 99 | 1 | 0 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 41 | | 13 | - | 3 | - | 2 | 98 | 1 | 0 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 40 | | 12 | - | 2 | - | 4 | 96 | 3 | 1 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 39 | | 12 | - | 3 | - | 3 | 94 | 5 | 2 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 38 | | 11 | - | 2 | - | 5 | 89 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 0 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 37 | | 11 | - | 3 | - | 4 | 83 | 12 | 6 | 0 | 0 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 36 | | 11 | - | 4 | - | 3 | 73 | 17 | 10 | 0 | 0 | | 0 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 35 | | 10 | - | 3 | - | 5 | 60 | 23 | 15 | 0 | 1 | | 0 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 34 | | 10 | - | 4 | - | 4 | 45 | 30 | 22 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 33 | | 10 | - | 5 | - | 3 | 30 | 33 | 29 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | | | | | | | | | | | 32 | | 9 | - | 4 | - | 5 | 16 | 32 | 33 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | | | | | | | | | | | | 31 | | 9 | - | 5 | - | 4 | 7 | 26 | 31 | 17 | 16 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | | | | | | | | | | 30 | | 9 | - | 6 | - | 3 | 2 | 17 | 21 | 24 | 24 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | | | | | | | | | 29 | | 8 | - | 5 | - | 5 | 0 | 8 | 10 | 26 | 27 | 13 | 14 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | | | | | | | | | | 28 | | 8 | - | 6 | - | 4 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 18 | 19 | 23 | 23 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | | | | | | | 27 | | 7 | - | 5 | - | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 7 | 24 | 24 | 16 | 16 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | | | | | | 26 | | 7 | - | 6 | - | 5 | | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 13 | 24 | 24 | 15 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | | | | | 25 | | 7 | - | 7 | - | 4 | | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 19 | 20 | 27 | 17 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | | | | | 6 | - | 5 | - | 7 | | 0 | | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 19 | 16 | 26 | 20 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | | | 24 | | 6 | - | 6 | - | 6 | | | | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 5 | 17 | 27 | 24 | 13 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | | | 7 | - | 8 | - | 3 | | | | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 7 | 21 | 28 | 22 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | | | | 23 | | 6 | - | 7 | - | 5 | | | | 0 | | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 15 | 26 | 27 | 17 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | 22 | | 6 | - | 8 | - | 4 | | | | | | 0 | | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 24 | 28 | 19 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | 5 | - | 6 | - | 7 | | | | | | 0 | | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 21 | 28 | 23 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21 | | 5 | - | 7 | - | 6 | | | | | | | | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 20 | 29 | 24 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 20 | | 5 | - | 8 | - | 5 | | | | | | | | 0 | | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 19 | 29 | 26 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 19 | | 5 | - | 9 | - | 4 | | | | | | | | | | | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 20 | 31 | 27 | 12 | 2 | 18 | | 4 | - | 8 | - | 6 | | | | | | | | | | | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 23 | 35 | 25 | 7 | 17 | | 4 | - | 9 | - | 5 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 30 | 38 | 18 | 16 | | 4 | - | 10 | - | 4 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 20 | 42 | 33 | 15 | | 3 | - | 9 | - | 6 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 38 | 50 | 14 | | 3 | - | 10 | - | 5 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 0 | 0 | 4 | 29 | 66 | 13 | | 3 | - | 11 | - | 4 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 0 | 0 | 2 | 20 | 79 | 12 | | 2 | - | 10 | - | 6 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 0 | 0 | 12 | 87 | 11 | | 2 | - | 11 | - | 5 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 0 | 0 | 7 | 93 | 10 | | 2 | - | 12 | - | 4 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 0 | 4 | 96 | 9 | | 1 | - | 11 | - | 6 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 0 | 2 | 98 | 8 | | 1 | - | 12 | - | 5 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1 | 99 | 7 | | 1 | - | 13 | - | 4 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 0 | 100 | 6 | | 1 | - | 14 | - | 3 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 0 | 100 | 3 | -5 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 100 | 2 | | 0 | - | 16 | - | 2 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 3 | 97 | 0 | -1 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 100 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Total: | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
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