SPORTS CLUB STATS

Your team’s chances of making the playoffs

"...per the brilliant Sports Club Stats"
(thank you Mr. Dater)

ABC Playoff Chances 2016

Season start, playoff odds unchanged at 40%

0 points 0-0-0

Add your own league!

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

If winner is:HomeEmpateAway
Week of 5/21	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Série B	100.0*	Série D	100.0*	Average seed
América-RN vs ABC	-9.1-2.6+11.4		-6.4-2.2+8.3		+4.2+0.7-4.9		-0.7-0.2+0.8
Cuiabá-MT vs Remo	-0.2+0.7-0.3		-0.2+0.6-0.2		+0.0-0.1*+0.0
ASA vs Confiança	-0.3+0.7-0.3		-0.2+0.6-0.2		*+0.0-0.1+0.0
Fortaleza vs River-PI	-0.2+0.7-0.3		-0.2+0.5-0.2		*+0.0-0.1+0.0
Salgueiro vs Botafogo-PB	-0.2+0.7-0.3		-0.2+0.5-0.2
Botafogo-SP vs Mogi Mirim					+0.0-0.1+0.0
Portuguesa vs Macaé					+0.0-0.1+0.0
Juventude vs Ypiranga-RS					+0.0-0.1+0.0
Boa vs Tombense-MG					+0.0-0.1*+0.0
Guarani vs Guaratinguetá					+0.0-0.1+0.0

If winner is:HomeEmpateAway
Week of 5/28	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Série B	100.0*	Série D	100.0*	Average seed
ABC vs Salgueiro	+11.2-2.8-9.3		+8.1-2.3-6.5		-4.8+0.8+4.3		+0.8-0.2-0.7
River-PI vs América-RN	-0.3+0.7-0.3		-0.2+0.6-0.2		+0.0-0.1+0.0
Remo vs ASA	-0.3+0.7-0.3		-0.2+0.6-0.2		+0.0-0.1*+0.0
Botafogo-PB vs Cuiabá-MT	-0.3+0.7-0.3		-0.2+0.6-0.2		*+0.0-0.1+0.0
Confiança vs Fortaleza	-0.3+0.7-0.3		-0.2+0.6-0.2
Tombense-MG vs Guarani					+0.0-0.1+0.0
Mogi Mirim vs Portuguesa					+0.0-0.1*+0.0
Macaé vs Boa					+0.0-0.1*+0.0
Guaratinguetá vs Juventude					+0.1-0.1*+0.0
Ypiranga-RS vs Botafogo-SP					+0.0-0.1*+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the ABC finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Série		Chance will finish regular season at seed										Série
TP		W	-	L	-	E	playoffs		B		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	D		Count

46	-54						In		Yes		100										No		4,431	*
45		14	-	1	-	3	In		Yes		100	0									No		1,731	*
44		14	-	2	-	2	In		Yes		100	0									No		3,631	*
43		13	-	1	-	4	In		Yes		100	0									No		6,721	*
42		13	-	2	-	3	In		Yes		100	0									No		12,582	*
41		13	-	3	-	2	In		Yes		100	0									No		21,808	*
40		12	-	2	-	4	In		Yes		99	1									No		36,460	*
39		12	-	3	-	3	In		100.0	%	98	2	0								No		60,446	*
38		11	-	2	-	5	In		100.0		97	3	0								No		94,549	*
37		11	-	3	-	4	In		99.9		94	6	0								No		142,666	*
36		11	-	4	-	3	In		99.8		90	10	0								No		210,664	*
35		10	-	3	-	5	In		99.4		84	16	1	0							No		297,530	*
34		10	-	4	-	4	In		98.4		75	24	2	0							No		408,258	*
33		10	-	5	-	3	100.0	%	95.9		63	33	4	0	0						No		544,311	*
32		9	-	4	-	5	100.0		90.5		49	42	9	1	0						No		698,678	*
31		9	-	5	-	4	99.9		80.6		33	48	17	2	0	0					No		874,547	*
30		8	-	4	-	6	99.6		64.7		19	46	29	6	0	0					No		557,286	*
		9	-	6	-	3	99.6		64.6		19	46	29	6	0	0	0				No		501,515
29		8	-	5	-	5	98.1		43.8		8	35	39	15	2	0	0				No		790,667
		9	-	7	-	2	98.2		44.3		8	36	40	14	2	0	0				No		453,438	*
28		8	-	6	-	4	92.8		23.5		3	21	41	28	7	1	0	0			No		862,067
		7	-	4	-	7	92.9		22.9		3	20	42	28	7	0	0				No		554,064	*
27		7	-	5	-	6	78.3		8.4		1	8	30	39	19	3	0	0			No		803,330
		8	-	7	-	3	79.5		8.7		0	8	31	39	18	3	0	0			No		758,621	*
26		7	-	6	-	5	53.7		1.9		0	2	15	37	34	11	1	0	0		No		1,053,938
		8	-	8	-	2	54.3		1.7		0	2	15	38	34	11	1	0	0		No		620,194	*
25		7	-	7	-	4	26.8		0.2		0	0	4	22	40	26	6	0	0		No		984,276
		6	-	5	-	7	25.3		0.2		0	0	4	21	40	27	6	0	0		No		750,853	*
24		6	-	6	-	6	7.8		0.0			0	1	7	28	40	20	3	0	0	No		938,184
		7	-	8	-	3	8.2		0.0			0	1	8	29	40	19	3	0	0	No		810,635	*
23		6	-	7	-	5	1.4		0.0			0	0	1	12	35	36	13	1	0	0.0	%	1,704,047	*
22		6	-	8	-	4	0.2		No				0	0	3	20	41	29	7	0	0.0		862,981
		5	-	6	-	7	0.1		No				0	0	3	19	40	30	7	0	0.0		745,409	*
21		5	-	7	-	6	0.0		No				0	0	1	7	28	42	20	2	0.5		803,751
		6	-	9	-	3	0.0		No					0	1	7	30	42	19	2	0.4		664,288	*
20		5	-	8	-	5	0.0		No					0	0	2	15	40	35	8	3.4		790,499
		4	-	6	-	8	Out		No						0	2	14	40	36	8	3.8		506,508	*
19		5	-	9	-	4	0.0		No					0	0	0	5	29	46	19	13.7		1,107,906	*
18		4	-	8	-	6	Out		No						0	0	2	16	48	34	32.8		912,514	*
17		4	-	9	-	5	Out		No							0	0	8	41	51	55.7		723,872	*
16		4	-	10	-	4	Out		No								0	3	31	66	75.5		552,474	*
15		3	-	9	-	6	Out		No								0	1	20	78	88.5		406,005	*
14		3	-	10	-	5	Out		No								0	0	12	87	95.3		286,327	*
13		3	-	11	-	4	Out		No									0	7	93	98.4		192,631	*
12		2	-	10	-	6	Out		No									0	4	96	99.5		124,498	*
11		2	-	11	-	5	Out		No									0	2	98	99.9		76,412	*
10		2	-	12	-	4	Out		No										1	99	100.0		43,843	*
9		1	-	11	-	6	Out		No										0	100	100.0		24,036	*
8		1	-	12	-	5	Out		No										0	100	Yes		12,324	*
0	-7						Out		No											100	Yes		12,954	*

Total:							40.0	%	20.0	%	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10.0	%	24,411,360

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeEmpateAway
Week of 5/21	100.0*	Lottery seed
América-RN vs ABC	+1.3+0.4-1.7
ASA vs Confiança	+0.0-0.1+0.0
Fortaleza vs River-PI	+0.0-0.1+0.0
Cuiabá-MT vs Remo	+0.0-0.1+0.0
Salgueiro vs Botafogo-PB	+0.0-0.1+0.0

If winner is:HomeEmpateAway
Week of 5/28	100.0*	Lottery seed
ABC vs Salgueiro	-1.6+0.4+1.4
River-PI vs América-RN	+0.0-0.1+0.0
Remo vs ASA	+0.0-0.1+0.0
Botafogo-PB vs Cuiabá-MT	+0.0-0.1+0.0
Confiança vs Fortaleza	+0.0-0.1+0.0

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W	-	L	-	E	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20

47	-54						100
46		15	-	2	-	1	100	0
45		14	-	1	-	3	100	0	0
44		14	-	2	-	2	100	0	0
43		13	-	1	-	4	99	0	0
42		13	-	2	-	3	99	1	0
41		13	-	3	-	2	98	2	0
40		12	-	2	-	4	96	3	1
39		12	-	3	-	3	94	5	2		0
38		11	-	2	-	5	89	8	3	0	0
37		11	-	3	-	4	82	12	6	0	0
36		11	-	4	-	3	73	17	10	0	0
35		10	-	3	-	5	60	24	15	0	1	0	0
34		10	-	4	-	4	45	30	22	1	2	0	0
33		10	-	5	-	3	30	33	29	4	4	0	0		0
32		9	-	4	-	5	16	32	33	9	9	0	1	0	0
31		9	-	5	-	4	7	26	31	17	16	1	2	0	0	0
30		8	-	4	-	6	2	17	21	24	24	5	6	0	0	0	0
29		8	-	5	-	5	0	8	10	26	27	13	14	1	2	0	0	0
28		8	-	6	-	4	0	3	3	18	19	23	23	5	6	1	0	0	0
27		7	-	5	-	6	0	1	0	8	6	24	22	17	16	5	1	0	0	0
		8	-	7	-	3	0	0	0	8	8	23	26	14	16	4	0	0	0
26		7	-	6	-	5		0	0	2	1	14	13	24	24	16	5	1	0	0	0
		8	-	8	-	2		0	0	2	1	14	13	25	24	15	5	1	0	0	0
25		7	-	7	-	4		0	0	0	0	4	4	19	20	27	17	7	2	0	0	0
		6	-	5	-	7		0		0	0	4	2	19	16	26	20	9	3	0	0	0
24		6	-	6	-	6				0	0	1	0	7	5	17	27	24	13	4	1	0	0	0
		7	-	8	-	3				0	0	1	0	7	7	21	28	22	11	3	1	0	0
23		6	-	7	-	5				0		0	0	1	1	5	15	26	27	17	6	1	0	0	0
22		6	-	8	-	4						0		0	0	1	4	13	25	28	19	8	2	0	0	0
		5	-	6	-	7						0		0	0	0	3	10	21	28	23	11	3	0	0	0
21		5	-	7	-	6						0		0	0	0	0	2	8	19	28	25	13	4	1	0
		6	-	9	-	3								0	0	0	0	3	10	22	29	23	11	3	0	0
20		5	-	8	-	5								0		0	0	0	2	7	19	29	26	13	3	0
19		5	-	9	-	4								0			0	0	0	1	7	20	31	27	12	2
18		4	-	8	-	6												0	0	0	2	8	23	35	26	7
17		4	-	9	-	5													0	0	0	2	12	30	38	18
16		4	-	10	-	4															0	0	4	20	42	33
15		3	-	9	-	6															0	0	1	10	38	50
14		3	-	10	-	5															0	0	0	4	29	66
13		3	-	11	-	4																0	0	2	20	78
12		2	-	10	-	6																	0	1	12	87
11		2	-	11	-	5																		0	7	93
10		2	-	12	-	4																		0	4	96
9		1	-	11	-	6																		0	2	98
8		1	-	12	-	5																			1	99
7		1	-	13	-	4																			1	99
6		1	-	14	-	3																			0	100
5		0	-	13	-	5																			0	100
0	-4																									100

Total:							5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5