"...per the brilliant Sports Club Stats"
(thank you Mr. Dater)

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 11/19100.0*Chance wins title100.0*Average seed
Palmeiras 1 Botafogo 0 -7.4
-0.1
Cruzeiro 2 Santos 2 -5.0
-0.2
Flamengo 2 Coritiba 2 +0.4
+0.1
Week of 11/26100.0*Chance wins title100.0*Average seed
Flamengo 2 Santos 0 No
-0.4
Palmeiras 1 Chapecoense 0 No
If winner is:HomeEmpateAway
Week of 12/4100.0*Chance wins title100.0*Average seed
Atlético-PR vs Flamengo+0.3+0.3-0.3
Santos vs América-MG+0.2-0.3-0.3

What If

Chances based on how well the Santos finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:ChanceChance will finish season at seed
TPW-L-Ewins titleLibertadores1234567891011121314151617181920Serie BCount
711-0-0NoYes5545No27,950,625
68-69NoYes100No17,686,335*
Total:NoYes3466No45,636,960

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points
Chance Will Win Championship