Italy Playoff Chances GroupStage 50/50
Did not play, playoff odds down 0.01 to 40.8%
3 points 1-0-1
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How are these numbers calculated?
Big Games
How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain
| Week of 6/19 | 100.0* | Chance in playoffs | 100.0* | Average seed |
| Italy 0 Costa Rica 1 | -16.4 | -0.5 | ||
| Uruguay 2 England 1 | *-0.1 | |||
| If winner is:HomeDrawAway | ||||
| Italy vs Uruguay | +39.2-14.0-28.8 | +1.0-0.4-0.7 | ||
| Costa Rica vs England | -1.4+1.5+0.3 | |||
| Week of 6/26 | None | |||
* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.
What If
Chances based on how well the Italy finish out the regular season. Explain
| 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | |||||||||||
| If finish: | Chance in | Chance will finish regular season at seed | ||||||||||||
| TP | W | - | D | - | L | playoffs | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | Count | |||
| 6 | 1 | - | 0 | - | 0 | 80.1 | % | 46 | 34 | 20 | 988,832 | |||
| 4 | 0 | - | 1 | - | 0 | 26.9 | 27 | 35 | 39 | 734,519 | ||||
| 3 | 0 | - | 0 | - | 1 | 12.0 | 12 | 27 | 61 | 990,089 | ||||
| Total: | 40.8 | % | 17 | 24 | 27 | 33 | 2,713,440 | |||||||
Points
Chance Will Make Playoffs
Lottery
Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.
Big Games
| Week of 6/19 | 100.0* | Lottery seed |
| Italy 0 Costa Rica 1 | +4.8 | |
| Germany 2 Ghana 2 | -0.1 | |
| Japan 0 Greece 0 | -0.1 | |
| Nigeria 1 Bosnia and Herz 0 | +0.1 | |
| Uruguay 2 England 1 | +0.1 | |
| Honduras 1 Ecuador 2 | +0.0 | |
| Colombia 2 Côte d'Ivoire 1 | +0.0 | |
| Switzerland 2 France 5 | +0.0 | |
| Argentina 1 Iran 0 | -0.0 | |
| If winner is:HomeDrawAway | ||
| Italy vs Uruguay | -5.5-0.5+5.8 | |
| Costa Rica vs England | +0.3+0.3-0.5 | |
| Ecuador vs France | +0.4-0.1-0.3 | |
| Honduras vs Switzerland | -0.2-0.2+0.3 | |
| Bosnia and Herz vs Iran | -0.1-0.2+0.2 | |
| Japan vs Colombia | +0.3-0.2-0.2 | |
| Greece vs Côte d'Ivoire | -0.1-0.2+0.2 | |
| Nigeria vs Argentina | +0.2-0.0-0.2 | |
| Cameroon vs Brazil | -0.1-0.2+0.2 | |
| Korea Republic vs Algeria | +0.1-0.2+0.0 | |
| Belgium vs Russia | -0.0-0.1+0.1 | |
| Croatia vs Mexico | +0.1-0.1-0.0 | |
| Netherlands vs Chile | -0.0+0.1-0.0 | |
| Australia vs Spain | +0.0-0.1+0.0 | |
| United States vs Portugal | +0.0-0.1+0.0 | |
| If winner is:HomeDrawAway | ||
| Week of 6/26 | 100.0* | Lottery seed |
| Portugal vs Ghana | +0.1-0.3+0.1 | |
| Algeria vs Russia | +0.0-0.2+0.1 | |
| Korea Republic vs Belgium | +0.1-0.1-0.0 | |
| United States vs Germany | +0.0-0.1+0.1 | |
What If
None
| 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | |||||||
| If finish: | Chance will finish season at seed | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| TP | W | - | D | - | L | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | |
| 6 | 1 | - | 0 | - | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 13 | 20 | 22 | 19 | 12 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 4 | 0 | - | 1 | - | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 21 | 26 | 21 | 11 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||
| 3 | 0 | - | 0 | - | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 12 | 18 | 20 | 17 | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Total: | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||||||
Updated Tuesday, 2023-11-7 1:51 PM Eastern (GMT-05:00)
