How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 5/24100.0*Chance wins title100.0*Série A100.0*Série C100.0*Average seed
Santa Cruz vs Ceará+2.0-0.6-1.6
+5.7-1.6-4.6
-5.5+1.0+4.7
+1.1-0.3-0.9
Paraná vs Santa Cruz-1.6-0.6+2.0
-4.5-1.6+5.7
+4.7+1.1-5.5
-0.9-0.3+1.1
Luverdense vs Vila Nova-0.0+0.1*-0.0
-0.1+0.2-0.1
América-MG vs Portuguesa-0.0+0.1*-0.0
+0.1-0.1*+0.0
Boa Esporte vs Ponte Preta-0.0+0.1*+0.0
-0.1+0.2*-0.1
ABC vs Paraná-0.1+0.2*-0.1
Icasa vs Vasco*-0.1+0.2-0.1
Joinville vs Bragantino*-0.1+0.2-0.1
Náutico vs Atlético-GO-0.1+0.2*-0.1
*+0.0-0.2+0.1
Portuguesa vs América-RN*-0.0+0.2-0.1
Sampaio Corrêa vs América-MG-0.1+0.2-0.1
América-RN vs Icasa-0.1+0.2*-0.1
Avaí vs Sampaio Corrêa-0.1+0.2*-0.1
*+0.0-0.1+0.1
Ceará vs Luverdense-0.1+0.2*-0.0
+0.1-0.2*+0.0
Vila Nova vs Náutico-0.1+0.1*-0.0
+0.1-0.1*+0.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 5/31100.0*Chance wins title100.0*Série A100.0*Série C100.0*Average seed
Santa Cruz vs Atlético-GO+2.1-0.6-1.6
+5.7-1.6-4.5
-5.5+1.1+4.7
+1.1-0.3-0.9
Santa Cruz vs Ponte Preta+2.0-0.6-1.6
+5.7-1.5-4.5
-5.5+1.0+4.7
+1.1-0.3-0.9
Náutico vs América-MG-0.1+0.1*-0.0
*-0.0+0.2-0.1
Oeste vs Paraná*-0.0+0.1-0.1
*-0.1+0.2-0.1
Luverdense vs Paraná-0.0+0.1*-0.0
Luverdense vs América-RN-0.0+0.1*-0.0
*-0.0-0.1+0.1
Boa Esporte vs Vila Nova-0.1+0.1*-0.0
ABC vs Ceará-0.1+0.2*-0.0
Joinville vs Vila Nova-0.1+0.2*-0.1
Portuguesa vs Vasco-0.1+0.2*-0.1
ABC vs Bragantino-0.1+0.2*-0.1
Icasa vs América-MG-0.1+0.2*-0.1
Náutico vs Avaí*-0.0+0.2-0.1
Sampaio Corrêa vs Vasco*-0.1+0.2-0.1
+0.1-0.1*+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Santa Cruz finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:ChanceSérieChance will finish season at seedSérie
TPW-D-Lwins titleA1234567891011121314151617181920CCount
85-114YesYes100No810*
8426-6-698.8%Yes991No84*
8325-8-5YesYes100No148*
8225-7-699.2Yes991No255*
8125-6-799.7Yes1000No374*
8024-8-699.8Yes1000No607*
7924-7-799.7Yes1000No941*
7823-9-699.3Yes991No1,350*
7723-8-798.9Yes9910No2,106*
7623-7-898.4Yes982No2,969*
7522-9-797.7Yes982No4,292*
7422-8-896.4Yes9640No6,062*
7322-7-994.5Yes9550No8,701*
7221-9-891.6Yes9280No11,795*
7121-8-988.5Yes891100No15,919*
7020-10-884.1Yes841510No21,192*
6920-9-977.9Yes782020No28,205*
6820-8-1070.7100.0%7126300No35,931*
6719-10-961.8100.06232600No45,426*
6619-9-1051.499.9513810100No56,990*
6519-8-1140.399.8404116300No70,472*
6418-10-1029.799.33042225100No85,440*
6318-9-1119.898.020392910200No101,881*
6217-11-1011.794.7123234175100No119,982*
6117-10-115.988.16243425102000No139,639*
6017-9-122.576.42143030175100No160,314*
5916-11-110.858.617203125123100No180,593*
5816-10-120.238.20211243021920000No200,661*
5716-9-130.019.50141526281872000No218,287*
5615-11-120.07.300161727261551000No235,837*
5515-10-130.01.9000271828251451000No250,677*
5415-9-14No0.3000281928241341000No260,955*
5314-11-13No0.0000282028241341000No270,268*
5214-10-14No0.00002920282412410000.0%274,461*
5114-9-15No0.00000292028241241000.0274,056*
5013-11-14NoNo0002920282412410000.1269,093*
4913-10-15NoNo000292128231231000.6261,285*
4812-12-14NoNo0003102229231130003.3249,476*
4712-11-15NoNo001311232921920011.3232,964*
4612-10-16NoNo000141326291971026.8217,265*
4511-12-15NoNo0016172928154047.7196,521*
4411-11-16NoNo0002821322510168.3176,021*
4311-10-17NoNo000313283319483.5154,526*
4210-12-16NoNo0016203529992.6134,346*
4110-11-17NoNo0031231371697.2114,167*
4010-10-18NoNo001724422699.195,231*
399-12-17NoNo00317423799.778,621*
389-11-18NoNo00111394999.963,216*
379-10-19NoNo0063360100.050,569*
368-12-18NoNo0032770100.039,186*
358-11-19NoNo022078Yes30,165*
348-10-20NoNo011584Yes22,375*
337-12-19NoNo001189Yes16,747*
327-11-20NoNo00793Yes12,125*
317-10-21NoNo0595Yes8,483*
306-12-20NoNo0397Yes5,888*
296-11-21NoNo298Yes3,907*
286-10-22NoNo199Yes2,611*
275-12-21NoNo199Yes1,684*
265-11-22NoNo0100Yes1,049*
255-10-23NoNo0100Yes684*
0-24NoNo100Yes1,595*
Total:5.0%20.0%5555555555555555555520.0%5,527,480

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points
Chance Will Win Championship