"...per the brilliant Sports Club Stats"
(thank you Mr. Dater)

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 5/24100.0*Chance wins title100.0*Série A100.0*Série C100.0*Average seed
Náutico vs Atlético-GO+2.1-0.6-1.6
+5.8-1.6-4.6
-5.5+1.0+4.7
+1.1-0.3-0.9
Vila Nova vs Náutico-1.6-0.6+2.0
-4.5-1.6+5.7
+4.7+1.1-5.5
-0.9-0.3+1.1
Santa Cruz vs Ceará*-0.0+0.1-0.1
*-0.1+0.3-0.1
*+0.0-0.2+0.1
Ponte Preta vs Oeste*+0.0+0.1-0.1
Luverdense vs Vila Nova-0.0+0.1*-0.0
-0.1+0.2*-0.0
Bragantino vs Boa Esporte-0.0+0.1*-0.0
-0.1+0.2*-0.0
Boa Esporte vs Ponte Preta-0.1+0.2*-0.1
ABC vs Paraná*-0.1+0.2-0.1
+0.1-0.2*+0.1
Joinville vs Bragantino-0.1+0.2*-0.1
Atlético-GO vs Joinville*-0.0+0.2-0.1
+0.1-0.2*+0.1
Ceará vs Luverdense-0.1+0.2*-0.1
Vasco vs ABC*-0.1+0.2-0.1
*+0.0-0.1+0.1
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 5/31100.0*Chance wins title100.0*Série A100.0*Série C100.0*Average seed
Náutico vs América-MG+2.1-0.6-1.6
+5.8-1.5-4.6
-5.5+1.1+4.7
+1.1-0.3-0.9
Náutico vs Avaí+2.0-0.6-1.5
+5.7-1.6-4.5
-5.5+1.1+4.7
+1.1-0.3-0.9
Santa Cruz vs Atlético-GO-0.1+0.1*-0.0
-0.1+0.2*-0.0
ABC vs Bragantino-0.0+0.1*-0.0
-0.1+0.2-0.1
Joinville vs América-RN-0.0+0.1*-0.0
-0.1+0.2*-0.1
+0.1-0.1*+0.0
Portuguesa vs Ponte Preta*-0.0+0.1-0.0
*-0.0+0.2-0.1
*+0.0-0.2+0.1
ABC vs Ceará-0.0+0.1*-0.0
-0.1+0.2*-0.1
Joinville vs Vila Nova-0.0+0.1*-0.0
Oeste vs Paraná*-0.1+0.2-0.1
Portuguesa vs Vasco-0.1+0.2*-0.1
Boa Esporte vs Atlético-GO-0.1+0.2*-0.1
Bragantino vs Sampaio Corrêa-0.1+0.3-0.1
Boa Esporte vs Vila Nova*+0.0-0.1+0.1
Icasa vs América-MG*-0.1+0.2-0.1
Oeste vs Ceará*-0.1+0.2-0.1
Sampaio Corrêa vs Vasco-0.1+0.2*-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Náutico finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:ChanceSérieChance will finish season at seedSérie
TPW-D-Lwins titleA1234567891011121314151617181920CCount
87-114YesYes100No729*
8627-5-697.7%Yes982No44*
83-85YesYes100No268*
8225-7-699.6Yes1000No256*
8125-6-7YesYes100No381*
8024-8-699.7Yes1000No616*
7924-7-799.4Yes991No881*
7823-9-699.2Yes991No1,389*
7723-8-798.9Yes991No2,002*
7623-7-897.9Yes982No3,059*
7522-9-797.4Yes973No4,331*
7422-8-896.2Yes9640No6,133*
7322-7-994.8Yes9550No8,561*
7221-9-892.1Yes9280No11,646*
7121-8-988.2Yes881100No16,060*
7020-10-883.7Yes841510No21,242*
6920-9-978.3Yes782020No27,907*
6820-8-1070.2100.0%7026300No35,510*
6719-10-961.5100.062326000No45,707*
6619-9-1051.199.9513810100No56,853*
6519-8-1140.699.8414115300No70,090*
6418-10-1029.699.33042225100No85,478*
6318-9-1119.697.9203929102000No103,076*
6217-11-1011.494.7113334175100No120,234*
6117-10-116.088.3623342592000No139,920*
6017-9-122.576.331429301751000No159,809*
5916-11-110.858.917203125123100No180,715*
5816-10-120.238.3031125302192000No200,515*
5716-9-130.019.50141426281771000No219,410*
5615-11-120.07.300161727261551000No236,042*
5515-10-13No1.800271828251451000No250,759*
5415-9-14No0.30028192824134100No261,535*
5314-11-13No0.0000282028241341000No270,235*
5214-10-14No0.00002920282413410000.0%274,187*
5114-9-15NoNo000292028241241000.0273,212*
5013-11-14NoNo000292028241241000.1269,993*
4913-10-15NoNo000292128231231000.6262,195*
4812-12-14NoNo000310222923113003.2248,917*
4712-11-15NoNo001311232921920011.3233,963*
4612-10-16NoNo00141326291971026.9215,506*
4511-12-15NoNo0016172928154048.0196,589*
4411-11-16NoNo002821322510168.3175,103*
4311-10-17NoNo000313283319483.5155,483*
4210-12-16NoNo0016203529992.6133,504*
4110-11-17NoNo0031231371697.1113,839*
4010-10-18NoNo001725422699.095,225*
399-12-17NoNo00317433799.778,273*
389-11-18NoNo00111394999.963,642*
379-10-19NoNo0063360100.050,062*
368-12-18NoNo0032670100.039,159*
358-11-19NoNo022078Yes29,843*
348-10-20NoNo011585Yes22,767*
337-12-19NoNo001189Yes16,563*
327-11-20NoNo0793Yes11,889*
317-10-21NoNo0595Yes8,481*
306-12-20NoNo0297Yes5,884*
296-11-21NoNo0298Yes4,065*
286-10-22NoNo199Yes2,652*
275-12-21NoNo199Yes1,742*
265-11-22NoNo0100Yes1,039*
255-10-23NoNo0100Yes719*
0-24NoNo100Yes1,591*
Total:5.0%20.0%5555555555555555555520.0%5,527,480

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points
Chance Will Win Championship