SPORTS CLUB STATS

Your team’s chances of making the playoffs

"...per the brilliant Sports Club Stats"
(thank you Mr. Dater)

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 5/24100.0*Chance wins title100.0*Série A100.0*Série C100.0*Average seed
Joinville vs Bragantino-1.2-0.1+3.0
-3.4-0.1+8.1
+3.2-0.5-7.1
-0.7+0.0+1.5
Bragantino vs Boa Esporte+1.5-1.1-2.0
+4.3-3.2-6.1
-4.5+2.9+6.9
+0.9-0.6-1.3
Paraná vs Santa Cruz*-0.0+0.1-0.1
-0.0+0.2-0.1
+0.1-0.1*-0.0
Vasco vs ABC*-0.0+0.1-0.1
-0.1+0.2-0.1
+0.1-0.1*-0.0
Icasa vs Vasco*-0.0+0.1-0.1
-0.0+0.2-0.1
+0.1-0.1*+0.0
ABC vs Paraná-0.0+0.1-0.1
-0.0+0.2-0.1
+0.1-0.1*+0.0
Ponte Preta vs Oeste-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.1+0.2-0.1
+0.1-0.1*+0.0
Boa Esporte vs Ponte Preta*-0.0+0.1-0.1
-0.0+0.2-0.1
+0.1-0.1*+0.0
Luverdense vs Vila Nova*-0.0+0.1-0.1
-0.1+0.2-0.1
+0.1-0.1*-0.0
Portuguesa vs América-RN-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.1+0.2-0.1
+0.1-0.1*+0.0
Sampaio Corrêa vs América-MG*-0.0+0.1-0.1
-0.1+0.2-0.1
+0.1-0.1*+0.0
Vila Nova vs Náutico*-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.1+0.2-0.1
+0.1-0.1*-0.0
Ceará vs Luverdense*-0.0+0.1-0.1
*-0.0+0.2-0.1
+0.1-0.2*+0.0
Náutico vs Atlético-GO*-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.1+0.2-0.1
+0.1-0.1*+0.0
América-RN vs Icasa*-0.0+0.1-0.1
-0.1+0.2-0.1
+0.1-0.1*+0.0
Oeste vs Avaí*-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.1+0.2-0.1
+0.1-0.1*+0.0
América-MG vs Portuguesa*-0.0+0.1-0.0
*-0.0+0.1-0.1
+0.1-0.1*-0.0
Atlético-GO vs Joinville*-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.0+0.2-0.1
+0.1-0.1*-0.0
Santa Cruz vs Ceará*-0.0+0.1-0.0
*-0.0+0.1-0.1
+0.1-0.1*-0.0
Avaí vs Sampaio Corrêa*-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.1+0.2-0.1
+0.1-0.1*+0.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 5/31100.0*Chance wins title100.0*Série A100.0*Série C100.0*Average seed
ABC vs Bragantino-1.2-0.1+3.0
-3.4-0.1+8.1
+3.2-0.5-7.1
-0.7+0.0+1.5
Bragantino vs Sampaio Corrêa+1.5-1.1-2.1
+4.3-3.1-6.1
-4.5+2.9+6.9
+0.9-0.6-1.3
Santa Cruz vs Ponte Preta*-0.0+0.1-0.1
-0.1+0.2-0.1
+0.1-0.1*+0.0
Joinville vs Vila Nova*-0.0+0.1-0.1
-0.1+0.2-0.1
+0.1-0.1*-0.0
Santa Cruz vs Atlético-GO*-0.0+0.1-0.1
*-0.0+0.2-0.1
+0.1-0.1*+0.0
Boa Esporte vs Vila Nova*-0.0+0.1-0.1
-0.1+0.2-0.1
+0.1-0.1*+0.0
Boa Esporte vs Atlético-GO*-0.0+0.1-0.1
-0.1+0.2-0.1
+0.1-0.2*+0.0
Oeste vs Paraná-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.1+0.2-0.1
+0.1-0.2*-0.0
Sampaio Corrêa vs Vasco-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.1+0.2-0.1
+0.1-0.1*+0.0
Luverdense vs Paraná*-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.0+0.2-0.1
+0.1-0.1*+0.0
Náutico vs América-MG*-0.0+0.1-0.1
-0.0+0.2-0.1
+0.1-0.1*+0.0
Náutico vs Avaí*-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.0+0.2-0.1
+0.1-0.1*-0.0
Icasa vs Avaí*-0.0+0.1-0.1
-0.1+0.2-0.1
+0.1-0.1*+0.0
Oeste vs Ceará*-0.0+0.1-0.1
-0.1+0.2-0.1
+0.1-0.1*+0.0
Icasa vs América-MG*-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.1+0.2-0.1
+0.1-0.1*+0.0
ABC vs Ceará*-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.0+0.2-0.1
+0.1-0.1*-0.0
Joinville vs América-RN-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.1+0.2-0.1
+0.1-0.1*-0.0
Portuguesa vs Ponte Preta*-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.1+0.2-0.1
+0.1-0.2*+0.0
Luverdense vs América-RN*-0.0+0.1-0.0
*-0.0+0.1-0.1
+0.1-0.1*+0.0
Portuguesa vs Vasco-0.0+0.1*-0.0
-0.1+0.2-0.1
+0.1-0.1*-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Bragantino finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:ChanceSérieChance will finish season at seedSérie
TPW-D-Lwins titleA1234567891011121314151617181920CCount
81-114YesYes100No3,445*
8024-8-699.9%Yes1000No903*
7924-7-799.9Yes1000No1,477*
7823-9-699.7Yes1000No2,386*
7723-8-799.5Yes1000No3,707*
7623-7-899.0Yes991No5,698*
7522-9-798.5Yes9910No8,597*
7422-8-897.8Yes9820No12,375*
7322-7-996.8Yes9730No18,422*
7221-9-895.3Yes9550No25,942*
7121-8-992.6Yes93700No36,501*
7020-10-889.1Yes891000No50,524*
6920-9-984.5Yes851510No68,770*
6820-8-1078.1Yes782020No91,230*
6719-10-970.3100.0%7026300No120,546*
6619-9-1060.8100.061336100No155,882*
6519-8-1149.699.9503910100No197,471*
6418-10-1038.099.73842173000No245,927*
6318-9-1126.799.02742246100No299,433*
6217-11-1016.797.1173731123000No362,550*
6117-10-119.092.592935206100No429,106*
6017-9-124.183.14193328133100No499,857*
5916-11-111.467.4110253122920000No572,785*
5816-10-120.446.4041528291761000No643,615*
5716-9-130.125.30161828261451000No713,930*
5615-11-120.010.000282028241341000No776,416*
5515-10-130.02.6000292128231241000No830,505*
5415-9-14No0.4000392128231241000No873,673*
5314-11-13No0.00000392028231241000No903,235*
5214-10-14No0.0000029202824124100000.0%917,322*
5114-9-15No0.0000028192724134100000.0915,747*
5013-11-14NoNo0002819272514410000.1899,849*
4913-10-15NoNo000281928251441000.9866,926*
4812-12-14NoNo000281928251341004.7821,933*
4712-11-15NoNo000292029241230015.4763,761*
4612-10-16NoNo000031023302392034.3697,336*
4511-12-15NoNo0014132630206156.9627,050*
4411-11-16NoNo0001517303014276.5552,393*
4311-10-17NoNo00029243524689.2478,394*
4210-12-16NoNo00041533341395.8404,780*
4110-11-17NoNo0001827412298.5337,404*
4010-10-18NoNo000419433499.6275,299*
399-12-17NoNo00212404699.9220,907*
389-11-18NoNo0173458100.0173,599*
379-10-19NoNo0042769100.0134,141*
368-12-18NoNo0022178100.0101,157*
358-11-19NoNo011585Yes74,277*
348-10-20NoNo01090Yes53,727*
337-12-19NoNo0793Yes38,170*
327-11-20NoNo0496Yes26,309*
317-10-21NoNo0397Yes17,790*
306-12-20NoNo0298Yes11,780*
296-11-21NoNo199Yes7,639*
286-10-22NoNo199Yes4,800*
275-12-21NoNo0100Yes2,947*
265-11-22NoNo0100Yes1,732*
255-10-23NoNo0100Yes1,000*
0-24NoNo100Yes3,363*
Total:5.0%20.0%5555555555555555555520.0%17,386,440

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points
Chance Will Win Championship
Updated Tuesday, 2015-2-17 6:15 PM Eastern (GMT-05:00)