"...per the brilliant Sports Club Stats"
(thank you Mr. Dater)

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 5/24100.0*Chance wins title100.0*Série A100.0*Série C100.0*Average seed
Bragantino vs Boa Esporte-1.6-0.6+2.0
-4.5-1.6+5.8
+4.7+1.1-5.5
-0.9-0.3+1.1
Boa Esporte vs Ponte Preta+2.0-0.6-1.6
+5.8-1.6-4.5
-5.5+1.1+4.7
+1.1-0.3-0.9
Icasa vs Vasco-0.1+0.1*-0.0
-0.1+0.2*-0.0
Ponte Preta vs Oeste*-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.1+0.2*-0.1
Paraná vs Santa Cruz*-0.0+0.1-0.0
*-0.1+0.2-0.1
Vila Nova vs Náutico-0.0+0.1*-0.0
*-0.1+0.2-0.1
Luverdense vs Vila Nova*+0.0-0.1+0.1
Oeste vs Avaí*-0.0+0.2-0.1
Joinville vs Bragantino-0.1+0.2*-0.0
Náutico vs Atlético-GO*-0.1+0.2-0.1
América-MG vs Portuguesa*-0.1+0.2-0.1
Vasco vs ABC-0.1+0.2*-0.0
Ceará vs Luverdense-0.1+0.2*-0.1
*+0.0-0.2+0.1
Avaí vs Sampaio Corrêa-0.1+0.2*-0.1
ABC vs Paraná*-0.0+0.2-0.1
Santa Cruz vs Ceará*+0.0-0.2+0.1
Sampaio Corrêa vs América-MG+0.1-0.1*+0.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 5/31100.0*Chance wins title100.0*Série A100.0*Série C100.0*Average seed
Boa Esporte vs Vila Nova+2.0-0.6-1.6
+5.7-1.5-4.5
-5.5+1.1+4.7
+1.1-0.3-0.9
Boa Esporte vs Atlético-GO+2.1-0.6-1.6
+5.8-1.6-4.5
-5.6+1.1+4.7
+1.1-0.3-0.9
Oeste vs Ceará-0.1+0.1*-0.0
-0.1+0.1*-0.0
Náutico vs América-MG-0.0+0.1*-0.0
-0.1+0.2*-0.1
ABC vs Ceará-0.1+0.2*-0.0
+0.1-0.1*+0.0
Icasa vs Avaí+0.1-0.2*+0.0
Luverdense vs América-RN*-0.0+0.2-0.1
Portuguesa vs Vasco-0.1+0.2*-0.1
Santa Cruz vs Ponte Preta*-0.0+0.1-0.1
Icasa vs América-MG-0.1+0.2*-0.1
Sampaio Corrêa vs Vasco-0.1+0.2*-0.0
+0.1-0.1*+0.0
Santa Cruz vs Atlético-GO*-0.1+0.2-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Boa Esporte finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:ChanceSérieChance will finish season at seedSérie
TPW-D-Lwins titleA1234567891011121314151617181920CCount
84-114YesYes100No920*
8325-8-599.3%Yes991No146*
8225-7-6YesYes100No231*
8125-6-799.7Yes1000No380*
8024-8-6YesYes100No637*
7924-7-799.6Yes1000No922*
7823-9-699.4Yes991No1,388*
7723-8-798.9Yes991No2,101*
7623-7-898.7Yes9910No3,070*
7522-9-797.7Yes9820No4,300*
7422-8-896.2Yes9640No6,011*
7322-7-994.6Yes9550No8,671*
7221-9-891.7Yes9280No11,899*
7121-8-988.7Yes89110No16,034*
7020-10-883.9Yes841510No21,165*
6920-9-978.2Yes782020No27,854*
6820-8-1070.6100.0%7126300No35,835*
6719-10-961.5100.06132600No45,383*
6619-9-1051.399.9513810100No57,297*
6519-8-1140.499.8404215300No70,268*
6418-10-1029.699.33042225100No85,448*
6318-9-1119.897.9203929102000No101,684*
6217-11-1011.794.8123234174100No119,973*
6117-10-115.988.2623342592000No140,211*
6017-9-122.576.42143030176100No160,623*
5916-11-110.958.717203125123100No179,952*
5816-10-120.238.30211253021920000No200,454*
5716-9-130.019.50141527281872000No219,130*
5615-11-120.07.4001617272615510000No235,287*
5515-10-13No1.800271828251451000No250,278*
5415-9-14No0.3000281928241341000No262,725*
5314-11-13No0.0000282028241341000No270,389*
5214-10-14No0.00002920282412410000.0%274,995*
5114-9-15NoNo0002920282412410000.0273,519*
5013-11-14NoNo0000292028241241000.1269,237*
4913-10-15NoNo000292128231231000.6261,951*
4812-12-14NoNo0000310222923113003.2248,203*
4712-11-15NoNo001311232921920011.2233,566*
4612-10-16NoNo000141326291971026.7215,779*
4511-12-15NoNo0016172928154047.8196,672*
4411-11-16NoNo0002822322510168.2175,480*
4311-10-17NoNo000313283319483.5154,874*
4210-12-16NoNo0016203529992.6134,581*
4110-11-17NoNo00021231381697.2113,921*
4010-10-18NoNo001724422699.195,040*
399-12-17NoNo00317423799.778,357*
389-11-18NoNo00111394999.963,477*
379-10-19NoNo0063361100.050,511*
368-12-18NoNo00032671100.039,358*
358-11-19NoNo0022178100.030,147*
348-10-20NoNo011485Yes22,601*
337-12-19NoNo01090Yes16,297*
327-11-20NoNo0793Yes11,988*
317-10-21NoNo0595Yes8,541*
306-12-20NoNo0397Yes5,991*
296-11-21NoNo298Yes3,997*
286-10-22NoNo199Yes2,700*
275-12-21NoNo199Yes1,726*
265-11-22NoNo0100Yes1,017*
255-10-23NoNo0100Yes686*
0-24NoNo100Yes1,602*
Total:5.0%20.0%5555555555555555555520.0%5,527,480

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points
Chance Will Win Championship