SPORTS CLUB STATS

Your team’s chances of making the playoffs

Holy capitalism Batman,
we’re in the Wall Street Journal

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 5/24100.0*Chance wins title100.0*Série A100.0*Série C100.0*Average seed
Náutico vs Atlético-GO-1.2-0.1+3.0
-3.4-0.1+8.1
+3.3-0.5-7.1
-0.7+0.0+1.5
Atlético-GO vs Joinville+1.5-1.1-2.0
+4.3-3.2-6.1
-4.5+2.9+6.9
+0.9-0.6-1.3
Avaí vs Sampaio Corrêa*-0.0+0.1-0.1
-0.0+0.2-0.1
+0.1-0.1*+0.0
Santa Cruz vs Ceará*-0.0+0.1-0.1
-0.1+0.2-0.1
+0.1-0.1*+0.0
Oeste vs Avaí*-0.0+0.1-0.1
-0.1+0.2-0.1
+0.1-0.2*+0.0
Vasco vs ABC-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.1+0.2-0.1
+0.0-0.1*+0.0
Boa Esporte vs Ponte Preta*-0.0+0.1-0.1
-0.1+0.2-0.1
+0.1-0.2*+0.0
Paraná vs Santa Cruz*-0.0+0.1-0.1
-0.1+0.2-0.1
+0.1-0.2*+0.0
Portuguesa vs América-RN*-0.0+0.1-0.1
-0.1+0.2-0.1
+0.1-0.1*+0.0
Vila Nova vs Náutico-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.1+0.2-0.1
+0.0-0.1+0.1
Luverdense vs Vila Nova*-0.0+0.1-0.1
-0.0+0.2-0.1
+0.1-0.1*-0.0
Sampaio Corrêa vs América-MG*-0.0+0.1-0.1
-0.1+0.2-0.1
+0.1-0.1*-0.0
América-RN vs Icasa*-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.1+0.2-0.1
+0.1-0.1*-0.0
Ceará vs Luverdense*-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.1+0.2-0.1
+0.1-0.1*+0.0
Joinville vs Bragantino*-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.1+0.2-0.1
+0.1-0.1*-0.0
Ponte Preta vs Oeste*-0.0+0.1-0.1
-0.1+0.2-0.1
+0.1-0.1*-0.0
Icasa vs Vasco*-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.0+0.2-0.1
+0.1-0.2*+0.0
ABC vs Paraná*-0.0+0.1-0.1
-0.0+0.2-0.1
+0.1-0.1*+0.0
América-MG vs Portuguesa-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.1+0.2-0.1
+0.1-0.1*-0.0
Bragantino vs Boa Esporte*-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.1+0.2-0.1
+0.1-0.1*+0.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 5/31100.0*Chance wins title100.0*Série A100.0*Série C100.0*Average seed
Boa Esporte vs Atlético-GO-1.2-0.1+3.0
-3.4-0.1+8.1
+3.2-0.4-7.1
-0.7+0.0+1.5
Santa Cruz vs Atlético-GO-1.2-0.1+3.0
-3.4-0.1+8.1
+3.2-0.4-7.1
-0.7+0.0+1.5
Icasa vs Avaí*-0.0+0.1-0.1
-0.1+0.2-0.1
+0.1-0.2*+0.0
Bragantino vs Sampaio Corrêa-0.0+0.1-0.1
-0.1+0.2-0.1
+0.1-0.1*-0.0
Santa Cruz vs Ponte Preta*-0.0+0.1-0.1
-0.0+0.2-0.1
+0.1-0.1*-0.0
ABC vs Bragantino*-0.0+0.1-0.1
*-0.0+0.2-0.1
+0.1-0.1*-0.0
Portuguesa vs Vasco*-0.0+0.1-0.1
-0.0+0.2-0.1
+0.1-0.2*+0.0
Joinville vs Vila Nova*-0.0+0.1-0.1
-0.0+0.2-0.1
+0.1-0.1*+0.0
Oeste vs Paraná*-0.0+0.1-0.1
-0.0+0.2-0.1
+0.1-0.1*+0.0
Náutico vs Avaí*-0.0+0.1-0.1
-0.1+0.2-0.1
+0.1-0.1*+0.0
Luverdense vs Paraná-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.1+0.2-0.1
+0.1-0.2*-0.0
Joinville vs América-RN*-0.0+0.1-0.1
-0.0+0.2-0.1
+0.1-0.1*-0.0
Icasa vs América-MG*-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.1+0.2-0.1
+0.1-0.2*-0.0
Luverdense vs América-RN-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.1+0.2-0.1
+0.1-0.2*-0.0
ABC vs Ceará-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.1+0.2-0.1
+0.1-0.1*+0.0
Portuguesa vs Ponte Preta-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.1+0.2-0.1
+0.1-0.1*-0.0
Náutico vs América-MG*-0.0+0.1-0.1
-0.0+0.2-0.1
+0.1-0.1*+0.0
Sampaio Corrêa vs Vasco*-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.1+0.2-0.1
+0.1-0.1*+0.0
Oeste vs Ceará*-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.1+0.2-0.1
+0.1-0.1*-0.0
Boa Esporte vs Vila Nova*-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.1+0.2-0.1
+0.1-0.1*-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Atlético-GO finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:ChanceSérieChance will finish season at seedSérie
TPW-D-Lwins titleA1234567891011121314151617181920CCount
80-114YesYes100No4,432*
7924-7-799.8%Yes1000No1,441*
7823-9-699.8Yes1000No2,310*
7723-8-799.4Yes991No3,594*
7623-7-899.2Yes9910No5,639*
7522-9-798.6Yes991No8,531*
7422-8-897.8Yes9820No12,559*
7322-7-996.9Yes9730No18,196*
7221-9-895.2Yes9550No26,036*
7121-8-992.6Yes93700No36,598*
7020-10-889.3Yes891000No50,673*
6920-9-984.5Yes841510No68,683*
6820-8-1078.2Yes782020No91,228*
6719-10-970.1100.0%7026300No120,096*
6619-9-1060.5100.060336100No155,056*
6519-8-1149.599.9493910100No196,088*
6418-10-1037.899.73842173000No245,888*
6318-9-1126.899.027422471000No300,556*
6217-11-1016.797.1173731123000No361,744*
6117-10-119.092.4929342061000No429,619*
6017-9-124.083.141933281331000No499,652*
5916-11-111.467.311025312292000No573,319*
5816-10-120.446.5041528291761000No645,614*
5716-9-130.125.30161828261451000No711,843*
5615-11-120.010.000282028241341000No776,620*
5515-10-130.02.6000292128231241000No831,092*
5415-9-14No0.4000392128231241000No874,130*
5314-11-13No0.0000292028231241000No902,712*
5214-10-14No0.000002920282312410000.0%916,659*
5114-9-15No0.000002819282413410000.0917,813*
5013-11-14NoNo000281927251441000.1899,712*
4913-10-15NoNo000281928251441000.9866,938*
4812-12-14NoNo0000281928251341004.7821,513*
4712-11-15NoNo000292029241230015.5764,689*
4612-10-16NoNo00031022302392034.3697,082*
4511-12-15NoNo00014132631206157.0627,151*
4411-11-16NoNo0001517302914276.4552,231*
4311-10-17NoNo00029243524689.2477,427*
4210-12-16NoNo00041533341395.7405,175*
4110-11-17NoNo001827412398.5338,144*
4010-10-18NoNo000419433499.6275,593*
399-12-17NoNo00212404799.9220,848*
389-11-18NoNo00173458100.0173,512*
379-10-19NoNo0042769100.0133,235*
368-12-18NoNo022078Yes100,708*
358-11-19NoNo011585Yes74,442*
348-10-20NoNo01090Yes54,060*
337-12-19NoNo0793Yes37,966*
327-11-20NoNo0496Yes26,202*
317-10-21NoNo0397Yes17,923*
306-12-20NoNo0298Yes11,825*
296-11-21NoNo199Yes7,626*
286-10-22NoNo199Yes4,857*
275-12-21NoNo0100Yes2,899*
265-11-22NoNo0100Yes1,816*
255-10-23NoNo0100Yes977*
245-9-24NoNo0100Yes631*
0-23NoNo100Yes2,837*
Total:5.0%20.0%5555555555555555555520.0%17,386,440

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points
Chance Will Win Championship
Updated Tuesday, 2015-2-17 6:15 PM Eastern (GMT-05:00)