"...per the brilliant Sports Club Stats"
(thank you Mr. Dater)

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 11/23100.0*Libertadores100.0*Average seed
Criciúma 1 Vitória 1 -5.0
-0.2
Atlético-PR 6 Náutico 1 -2.6
-0.1
Atlético-MG 4 Goiás 1 +2.1
-0.1
São Paulo 1 Botafogo 1 +0.4
+0.1
Ponte Preta 1 Grêmio 1 -0.1
Week of 11/30100.0*Libertadores100.0*Average seed
Vitória 4 Flamengo 2 +9.0
+0.6
Coritiba 2 Botafogo 1 +2.8
+0.1
Grêmio 1 Goiás 0 +2.0
+0.1
Santos 2 Atlético-PR 1 +1.5
-0.1
Fluminense 2 Atlético-MG 2 +0.1
+0.0
Criciúma 1 São Paulo 0 +0.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 12/7100.0*Libertadores100.0*Average seed
Atlético-MG vs VitóriaNo-11.7+33.7
-1.4+0.3+1.2
Goiás vs Santos-16.8+3.9+13.8
-0.3+0.0+0.3
Botafogo vs Criciúma-14.0+2.3+12.3
-0.3-0.0+0.3
Atlético-PR vs Vasco-4.8-4.8+8.5
-0.1-0.1+0.2

What If

Chances based on how well the Vitória finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:ChanceChance will finish season at seed
TPW-D-Lwins titleLibertadores1234567891011121314151617181920Serie BCount
611-0-0No58.4%1445348No5,581,823
590-1-0No13.0134641No4,264,325
580-0-1NoNo793No5,580,572
Total:No24.7%520251734No15,426,720
Points
Chance Will Win Championship