Denver Nuggets Playoff Chances 2011-2012

Beat Houston 117-105, playoff odds up 8.9 to 68.2%

20-17 .541

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Friday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Denver 117 Houston 105	+5.7		+0.3
Dallas 92 New Orleans 97	+0.8		+0.1
Miami 98 Utah 99	-0.6
Sacramento 107 LA Lakers 115	-0.5
Memphis 102 Toronto 99	-0.4		-0.0
LA Clippers 78 Phoenix 81	+0.3
Golden State 83 Philadelphia 105	+0.2

If winner is:HomeHome OTAway OTAway
Saturday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Detroit vs Memphis	+0.8+1.1*-0.6-0.5		+0.1+0.1-0.0-0.0
Minnesota vs Portland	+0.2+0.1-0.2-0.2

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Chances based on how well the Denver finish out the regular season. Explain

						100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:				Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TW	W	-	L	playoffs		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	Count

49	29	-	0	In		94			6												85
47	27	-	2	In		78			22												9
46	26	-	3	In		26	3		71												69
45	25	-	4	In		21	4		75												338
44	24	-	5	In		8	5	0	87	0											1,469
43	23	-	6	In		3	4	0	91	2	0										4,821
42	22	-	7	In		1	2	1	88	9	0	0									13,298
41	21	-	8	In		0	1	0	74	23	2	0	0								30,375
40	20	-	9	In			0	0	48	40	11	1	0								58,505
39	19	-	10	100.0	%		0	0	22	42	28	7	1	0							95,007
38	18	-	11	99.4				0	6	26	38	23	6	1	0						130,850
37	17	-	12	95.3				0	1	8	28	37	21	5	0	0					154,810
36	16	-	13	79.8				0	0	1	10	30	38	18	2	0					157,952
35	15	-	14	50.5					0	0	2	13	36	38	11	1	0				139,468
34	14	-	15	21.3						0	0	3	19	44	29	5	0	0			106,078
33	13	-	16	5.3							0	0	5	31	44	18	2	0			69,499
32	12	-	17	0.9								0	1	13	41	37	8	0			39,253
31	11	-	18	0.1									0	3	25	48	21	3			19,012
30	10	-	19	0.0									0	0	10	41	39	10			7,780
29	9	-	20	Out											3	25	48	24	0		2,765
28	8	-	21	Out											1	11	41	47	0		842
27	7	-	22	Out												3	30	66	1		224
26	6	-	23	Out													7	82	11		44
25	5	-	24	Out														90	10		10
24	4	-	25	Out														100			1
20	0	-	29	Out														1	38	61	85

Total:				68.2	%	0	0	0	9	12	14	16	17	16	10	5	1	0	0	0	1,032,649

Games Above .500

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Friday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Denver 117 Houston 105	-0.5
Dallas 92 New Orleans 97	-0.1
Sacramento 107 LA Lakers 115	+0.0
Memphis 102 Toronto 99	+0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTAway OTAway
Saturday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Detroit vs Memphis	-0.1-0.1+0.1+0.1
Utah vs Dallas	-0.0-0.1+0.0+0.0

				100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:				Chance will finish season at seed
TW	W	-	L	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

49	29	-	0	44	51					6
47	27	-	2		78					22
46	26	-	3	1	25		3			71
45	25	-	4	0	20	1	3			74	1
44	24	-	5		8	0	5	0		83	4	0
43	23	-	6		3	0	4	0	0	80	11	2		0
42	22	-	7		1		2	0	0	64	23	9	0	0		0
41	21	-	8		0		1	0	0	40	34	21	2	2	0	0		0
40	20	-	9				0	0	0	15	33	32	8	11	0	1		0
39	19	-	10				0	0	0	3	19	24	19	25	2	7	0	1		0
38	18	-	11						0	0	6	7	18	28	10	23	0	6	0	1	0
37	17	-	12					0	0	0	1	1	8	13	15	34	4	21	0	5	0	0
36	16	-	13						0		0	0	1	2	8	22	8	37	1	18	2	0
35	15	-	14								0	0	0	0	2	6	7	33	4	38	11	1	0
34	14	-	15										0	0	0	1	2	14	4	44	29	5	0	0
33	13	-	16												0	0	0	3	2	31	44	18	2	0
32	12	-	17														0	0	1	12	40	37	9	1	0
31	11	-	18															0	0	3	23	46	24	4	0
30	10	-	19																0	0	8	35	39	15	2	0
29	9	-	20																		2	16	39	32	10	1	0
28	8	-	21																		0	5	20	40	29	6
27	7	-	22																			0	7	31	44	17	1
26	6	-	23																					7	43	36	9	5
25	5	-	24																						30	40	20	10
24	4	-	25																							100
20	0	-	29																									2	15	44	36	2

Total:				0	0	0	0	0	0	4	6	6	6	9	5	13	3	16	1	16	10	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0