Campeonato Brasileiro - Serie A Title Chances 2009

															100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
Chance will win title												Libetadores			Chance will finish season at seed																						Serie B
	P	G	W	-	D	-	L	GD	%	Change		%	Change		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	Avg.	Change	%	Change		RPI	Strength

Flamengo	64		18	-	10	-	9	13	51.3	%	+26.9	Yes		+3.3	51	24	19	5																	1.8	+0.61	No			3	.563	Clube de Regatas do Flamengo
Internacional	62		18	-	8	-	11	18	28.1		+16.1	99.2	%	+6.4	28	28	22	21	1																2.4	+0.50	No			4	.547	Sport Club Internacional
Palmeiras	62		17	-	11	-	9	14	12.4		+7.1	90.8		+19.3	12	25	27	27	9																3.0	+0.78	No			2	.547	Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras
Sao Paulo	62		17	-	11	-	9	11	8.2		-49.9	92.6		-6.8	8	23	30	32	7																3.1	-1.42	No			1	.547	Sao Paulo Futebol Clube

Cruzeiro	59		17	-	8	-	12	4	No		-0.0	17.4		+0.0		0	2	15	72	10															4.9	+0.43	No			8	.523	Cruzeiro Esporte Clube
Atletico-MG	56		16	-	8	-	13	2	No		-0.1	No		-22.2					10	53	24	10	2												6.4	-1.08	No			5	.499	Clube Atletico Mineiro
Gremio	55		15	-	10	-	12	22	No			No								18	35	34	13												7.4	+0.71	No			7	.491	Gremio Foot-Ball Porto Alegrense
Goias	54		15	-	9	-	13	-1	No			No								12	21	31	36												7.9	+0.99	No			9	.483	Goias Esporte Clube
Avai	54		14	-	12	-	11	8	No			No								6	19	25	50												8.2	-0.68	No			6	.483	Avai Futebol Clube
Corinthians	49		13	-	10	-	14	-7	No			No												39	27	27	7								11.0	-0.21	No			15	.443	Sport Club Corinthians Paulista
Santos	49		12	-	13	-	12	1	No			No												23	19	41	17								11.5	+0.28	No			10	.443	Santos Futebol Clube
Barueri	48		12	-	12	-	13	7	No			No												17	24	18	19	21	1						12.1	-0.59	No			11	.435	Gremio Recreativo Barueri
Vitoria	47		13	-	8	-	16	-6	No			No												8	14	8	35	18	17						12.9	-0.95	No		-0.0	14	.427	Esporte Clube Vitoria
Atletico-PR	47		13	-	8	-	16	-7	No			No												13	16	6	14	33	19						12.9	+1.77	No		-10.7	12	.427	Clube Atletico Paranaense
Fluminense	45		11	-	12	-	14	-7	No			No															6	18	34	33	9				15.2	+1.09	9.1	%	-45.7	13	.411	Fluminense Football Club
Coritiba	44		12	-	8	-	17	-12	No			No															2	11	23	34	26	5			15.9	-0.96	31.0		+15.1	17	.403	Coritiba Football Club

Botafogo	44		10	-	14	-	13	-7	No			No																	7	29	53	11			16.7	-1.28	63.9		+42.7	16	.403	Botafogo de Futebol e Regatas
Santo Andre	41		11	-	8	-	18	-12	No			No																		4	12	80	4		17.8	+0.51	95.9		-2.7	18	.379	Esporte Clube Santo Andre
Nautico	38		10	-	8	-	19	-22	No			No																				4	96		19.0	-0.51	Yes		+1.3	19	.355	Clube Nautico Capibaribe
Sport Recife	31		7	-	10	-	20	-19	No			No																						100	20.0		Yes			20	.299	Sport Club do Recife

Big Games

Who should we root for? Explain

Week of 11/21
Botafogo 3 Sao Paulo 2
5:00 PM Sun	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libetadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Flamengo	+14.9						+0.2
Sao Paulo	-21.2		-0.6				-0.4
Fluminense					+15.5		-0.2
Botafogo					-26.7		+0.9

Flamengo 0 Goias 0
7:30 PM Sun	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libetadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Flamengo	-9.6		-0.4				-0.2
Sao Paulo	+8.2
Goias			-0.1

Atletico-MG 0 Internacional 1
7:30 PM Sun	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libetadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Internacional	+2.3		+28.3				+1.0
Atletico-MG	-0.9		-23.5				-0.9
Gremio			No

Atletico-PR 1 Cruzeiro 1
7:30 PM Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libetadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Internacional			+4.6
Palmeiras			+2.5
Cruzeiro	-0.3		-11.5				-0.4
Barueri					*No

Santo Andre 4 Avai 2
5:00 PM Sun	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libetadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Avai	No		-7.3				-0.9

Corinthians 2 Nautico 3
7:30 PM Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libetadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Corinthians			No				-0.9

Sport Recife 0 Fluminense 3
5:00 PM Sun	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libetadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Fluminense					-23.4		+0.7
Botafogo					+13.8		-0.2

Santos 4 Coritiba 0
5:00 PM Sun	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libetadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Santos					No		+1.2
Coritiba					+2.7		-1.1

Vitoria 2 Barueri 1
7:30 PM Sun	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libetadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Vitoria					-1.7		+1.3

Week of 11/29
Goias 4 Sao Paulo 2
5:00 PM Sun	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libetadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Flamengo	+13.2						+0.2
Internacional	+12.7						+0.2
Sao Paulo	-31.7		-1.4				-0.6
Cruzeiro	+0.1
Atletico-MG	+0.1

Corinthians 0 Flamengo 2
5:00 PM Sun	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libetadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Flamengo	+20.0		Yes				+0.7
Sao Paulo	-13.1						-0.2
Cruzeiro	No		-1.5
Atletico-MG	No
Corinthians							-0.7

Sport Recife 1 Internacional 2
5:00 PM Sun	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libetadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Internacional	+9.6		+7.0				+0.6
Sao Paulo	-4.4

Palmeiras 3 Atletico-MG 1
5:00 PM Sun	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libetadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Palmeiras	+7.7		+25.8				+1.0
Atletico-MG	No		-22.0				-0.7

Cruzeiro 4 Coritiba 1
5:00 PM Sun	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libetadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Palmeiras			-6.7				-0.2
Cruzeiro			+18.2				+0.7
Vitoria					No
Fluminense					-5.8		+0.2
Coritiba					+15.4		-0.8
Botafogo					-5.5		+0.2

Santo Andre 5 Nautico 3
5:00 PM Sun	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libetadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Santo Andre					-2.5		+0.6
Nautico					Yes		-0.5

Fluminense 4 Vitoria 0
5:00 PM Sun	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libetadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Vitoria					+0.1		-1.3
Atletico-PR					+8.9
Fluminense					-32.9		+0.9
Botafogo					+16.8		-0.2

Atletico-PR 2 Botafogo 0
5:00 PM Sun	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libetadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Vitoria					No
Atletico-PR					No		+1.2
Botafogo					+21.4		-1.0
Santo Andre					-0.8
Nautico					-1.0

Gremio 4 Barueri 2
5:00 PM Sun	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libetadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Barueri							-1.0

Avai 2 Santos 2
5:00 PM Sun	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libetadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Santos							-0.3

Week of 12/5
Flamengo vs GremioIf winner is:HomeDrawAway
5:00 PM Sun	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libetadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Flamengo	Yes21.613.1						1.02.22.5
Internacional	No47.847.8						2.72.22.2
Palmeiras	No21.121.1						3.22.82.8
Sao Paulo	No9.517.9						3.33.12.8

Internacional vs Santo AndreHomeDrawAway
5:00 PM Sun	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libetadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Flamengo	41.260.560.5						2.11.51.5
Internacional	58.8NoNo		YesYes96.6				1.43.03.6
Palmeiras	No23.823.8						3.32.82.5
Sao Paulo	No15.715.7						3.42.92.6
Coritiba					26.926.943.8		15.815.816.1
Santo Andre					YesYes83.1		18.118.017.2

Botafogo vs PalmeirasHomeDrawAway
5:00 PM Sun	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libetadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Flamengo	59.959.941.2						1.51.52.1
Internacional			Yes98.998.9				2.12.32.6
Palmeiras	NoNo26.9		64.3YesYes				4.33.32.0
Cruzeiro			41.78.98.9				4.65.05.0
Fluminense					35.4NoNo		15.715.115.1
Coritiba					64.636.68.8		16.216.015.6
Botafogo					No63.4Yes		15.716.617.2
Santo Andre					YesYes91.2		18.018.017.7

Sao Paulo vs Sport RecifeHomeDrawAway
5:00 PM Sun	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libetadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Flamengo	45.657.757.7						2.01.61.6
Internacional			99.099.0Yes				2.62.32.0
Sao Paulo	15.4NoNo		YesYes60.7				2.43.54.4
Cruzeiro			11.811.841.7				5.05.04.6

Santos vs CruzeiroHomeDrawAway
5:00 PM Sun	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libetadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Internacional			YesYes98.0
Palmeiras			YesYes77.9				2.82.83.1
Sao Paulo			YesYes82.3				3.03.03.2
Cruzeiro			NoNo41.7				5.35.04.5

Coritiba vs FluminenseHomeDrawAway
5:00 PM Sun	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libetadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Fluminense					25.8NoNo		16.315.314.2
Coritiba					No25.865.0		14.616.316.8
Botafogo					74.274.246.2		16.916.616.6
Santo Andre					YesYes88.8		17.917.917.7

Vitoria vs GoiasHomeDrawAway
5:00 PM Sun	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libetadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Vitoria							11.113.014.3

Barueri vs Atletico-PRHomeDrawAway
5:00 PM Sun	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libetadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Barueri							10.611.913.6
Atletico-PR							14.513.610.8

* A starred outcome could have no effect or just a really small effect. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Thank you Marcos Vilhena for adding this league.