Sport Club Internacional Title Chances 2007 50/50

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

Week of 8/26	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Sao Paulo 5 Nautico 0	-0.3		-0.5		-0.2
Atletico-MG 1 Botafogo 2	-0.1		-0.5		-0.1
Figueirense 1 Palmeiras 2	-0.1		-0.7		-0.1
Sport Recife 0 Vasco da Gama 0	+0.1		+0.4
Flamengo 3 Goias 1			+0.3		+0.2
America-RN 1 Santos 4			-0.6				-0.1
Parana 3 Juventude 1			-0.1				-0.1
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Internacional vs Fluminense	+0.8-0.3-0.6		+7.0-2.2-5.3		-2.1+0.2+2.0		+1.2-0.3-1.0
Palmeiras vs Sao Paulo	+0.2+0.1-0.3		-0.5+0.3+0.3				-0.1+0.0+0.0
Parana vs Cruzeiro	+0.1+0.0-0.1		+0.4+0.3-0.6		+0.2*-0.0-0.2
Botafogo vs Flamengo	-0.1+0.0+0.1		-0.8+0.2+0.6		-0.1*-0.0+0.1
Vasco da Gama vs Nautico	-0.1*+0.0+0.1		-0.8+0.2+0.6		-0.2-0.1+0.3
Santos vs Atletico-PR			-0.6+0.3+0.4		-0.2-0.1+0.3
Juventude vs Goias			+0.3+0.2-0.4		+0.2-0.1-0.1		+0.0+0.0-0.1
Sport Recife vs Gremio			+0.2+0.2-0.4		+0.1*-0.0-0.1
Atletico-MG vs Corinthians			-0.1+0.1*+0.0		*-0.0-0.1+0.1
Figueirense vs America-RN					+0.2-0.1-0.1		-0.1+0.0+0.0

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 9/1	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Santos vs Internacional	-0.6-0.3+0.9		-5.7-2.1+7.3		+1.8+0.3-2.0		-1.0-0.3+1.2
Nautico vs Internacional	-0.6-0.3+0.9		-5.1-2.2+6.8		+2.2+0.1-2.2		-0.9-0.3+1.2
Sao Paulo vs Parana	-0.3+0.1+0.2		-0.2+0.1+0.1		-0.2*-0.0+0.2		+0.0+0.0-0.1
Atletico-MG vs Sao Paulo	+0.2+0.1-0.3		*+0.0+0.2-0.2		+0.1*-0.0-0.1		-0.1+0.0+0.0
Juventude vs Cruzeiro	+0.1+0.0-0.1		+0.6+0.2-0.7		+0.2-0.1-0.2
Cruzeiro vs Palmeiras	-0.1+0.1+0.1		*-0.1+0.4-0.3
Gremio vs Botafogo	+0.1+0.1-0.1		+0.2+0.4-0.4
Fluminense vs Vasco da Gama	+0.1*+0.0-0.1		+0.5+0.3-0.7		+0.2*-0.1-0.1
Botafogo vs Palmeiras			-0.2+0.4-0.1
Gremio vs Vasco da Gama	+0.0+0.0-0.1		+0.1+0.4-0.4
Corinthians vs Santos			+0.3+0.3-0.5		+0.1*-0.0-0.1
Goias vs Figueirense			-0.4+0.2+0.3		-0.2*-0.0+0.2
Goias vs Atletico-PR			-0.4+0.1+0.3		-0.2-0.1+0.3
Atletico-PR vs Atletico-MG			+0.1*+0.1-0.2		+0.2-0.1-0.1
Flamengo vs Sport Recife			*+0.0+0.2-0.1		+0.1-0.1*-0.0
Parana vs Nautico			-0.2+0.1*+0.1		-0.1-0.1+0.2
Corinthians vs America-RN			-0.1*+0.1+0.1		+0.1*-0.0-0.1		-0.1*+0.0+0.1
Sport Recife vs Fluminense			-0.1+0.1*-0.0		*-0.0-0.1+0.1
Flamengo vs Figueirense					*-0.0-0.1+0.1
America-RN vs Juventude					-0.1-0.1+0.2

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Internacional finish out the regular season. Explain

100

If finish:

Chance

Chance will finish season at seed

wins title

Libertadores

Serie B

Count

99.8

Yes

100

438

-80

Yes

100

86.7

Yes

100

96.1

Yes

94.6

Yes

112

91.8

Yes

243

89.9

Yes

544

85.0

Yes

1,082

76.7

Yes

1,835

68.5

Yes

3,388

59.4

Yes

5,900

48.1

Yes

9,544

36.6

100.0

15,863

25.5

99.8

23,397

15.8

99.3

34,634

8.9

97.3

49,672

4.3

93.3

67,237

1.7

84.8

89,084

0.5

70.6

114,216

0.1

51.1

141,090

0.0

30.9

170,120

0.0

14.5

198,110

5.0

222,518

1.2

242,781

0.2

127,341

0.2

127,833

0.0

260,524

0.0

257,891

245,173

0.0

225,681

0.0

200,562

0.2

171,359

1.3

141,791

5.4

112,830

15.2

86,227

31.7

62,592

51.6

43,873

70.7

29,416

85.1

18,565

93.4

11,022

97.1

6,225

99.1

3,389

99.9

1,663

99.9

774

Yes

288

Yes

119

Yes

438

Total:

1.2

15.1

3.5

3,527,520

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Win Championship