"...per the brilliant Sports Club Stats"
(thank you Mr. Dater)

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 8/26100.0*Chance wins title100.0*Libertadores100.0*Serie B100.0*Average seed
Atletico-MG 1 Botafogo 2 -0.2
Flamengo 3 Goias 1 +1.8
-0.1
Figueirense 1 Palmeiras 2 -0.9
+0.0
Sao Paulo 5 Nautico 0 -1.0
+0.0
Parana 3 Juventude 1 +0.8
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Santos vs Atletico-PR-0.0-0.0+0.1
+7.3+1.2-12.9
-0.5-0.1+0.8
Vasco da Gama vs Nautico-1.1-0.1+2.4
+0.0+0.0-0.1
Botafogo vs Flamengo-0.8*-0.0+1.4
+0.0+0.0-0.1
Sport Recife vs Gremio+0.5*-0.0-0.4
Figueirense vs America-RN+1.6-1.0-2.2
-0.1+0.0+0.1
Parana vs Cruzeiro+1.2*-0.0-0.7
-0.1+0.0+0.0
Internacional vs Fluminense-0.7-0.2+1.0
Atletico-MG vs Corinthians-0.3-0.3+0.6
Juventude vs Goias+0.6-0.1-0.3
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 9/1100.0*Chance wins title100.0*Libertadores100.0*Serie B100.0*Average seed
Goias vs Atletico-PR-0.0-0.0+0.1
+8.0+1.7-12.6
-0.5-0.1+0.8
Atletico-PR vs Atletico-MG+0.0-0.0No
+0.1-0.0-0.0
-12.8+1.9+8.7
+0.8-0.1-0.5
Sao Paulo vs Parana-0.6*+0.1+1.2
+0.0*+0.0-0.1
Atletico-MG vs Sao Paulo+0.7+0.1-0.4
-0.1*-0.0+0.0
Fluminense vs Vasco da Gama+1.1*-0.0-0.7
-0.1+0.0+0.0
Juventude vs Cruzeiro+1.0*+0.0-0.4
-0.1-0.0+0.0
Corinthians vs Santos+1.1*-0.0-0.8
-0.1+0.0+0.0
Goias vs Figueirense-1.3-0.3+1.9
+0.0+0.0-0.1
Nautico vs Internacional+2.0-0.2-1.1
-0.1+0.0+0.0
Corinthians vs America-RN+0.9-0.5-1.5
-0.0+0.0+0.1
Parana vs Nautico-0.3-0.7+1.1
Flamengo vs Figueirense-0.3-0.7+0.9
Flamengo vs Sport Recife+0.8-0.3-0.5
America-RN vs Juventude-0.5-0.3+0.5
Sport Recife vs Fluminense-0.3-0.2+0.5
Santos vs Internacional-0.1*+0.0+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Atletico-PR finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:ChanceChance will finish season at seed
TPW-D-Lwins titleLibertadores1234567891011121314151617181920Serie BCount
7417-0-064.9%Yes65332No1,294
7216-1-0YesYes100No1
7015-2-0NoYes5050No2
6915-1-120.0Yes205030No10
6814-3-013.3Yes13274713No15*
6714-2-1NoYes334720No30
6614-1-21.092.7%12542257No96*
6513-3-11.987.62153734111No209*
6413-2-2No78.2930401650No455*
6312-4-10.163.103233728810No945*
6212-3-20.143.9019333716300No1,905*
6112-2-3No26.704223926810No3,599*
6011-4-2No13.8021230341840No6,487*
5911-3-3No5.20052034281120No11,456*
5811-2-4No1.60210283420610No19,402*
5710-4-3No0.300416333114300No31,206*
5610-3-4No0.000172334259200No49,633*
559-5-3No0.000211283219610No74,729*
549-4-4No0.00004163130154000No109,806*
539-3-5NoNo001721322611200No155,933*
528-5-4NoNo002102532228100No212,904*
518-4-5NoNo0031328311851000.0%281,865*
508-3-6NoNo0015173129143000.0361,960*
497-5-5NoNo0017213225102000.1445,767*
487-4-6NoNo0002112633216100.7535,731*
476-6-5NoNo00014163131153002.7621,884*
466-5-6NoNo00172235267007.9695,766*
456-4-7NoNo0002123136162017.8754,658*
445-6-6NoNo00152240285032.5789,990*
435-5-7NoNo00212363910049.8795,379*
425-4-8NoNo00062747181066.4775,437*
414-6-7NoNo0021848293080.1727,641*
404-5-8NoNo0011044406089.5658,513*
394-4-9NoNo005364910095.1572,182*
383-6-8NoNo002275417098.0475,891*
373-5-9NoNo01185525099.3379,644*
363-4-10NoNo00115335199.8291,018*
352-6-9NoNo064745199.9210,788*
342-5-10NoNo0339552100.0145,657*
332-4-11NoNo0130645100.095,029*
322-3-12NoNo122708Yes58,546*
311-5-11NoNo0147312Yes33,543*
301-4-12NoNo097219Yes18,175*
291-3-13NoNo056827Yes8,852*
280-5-12NoNo36235Yes4,090*
270-4-13NoNo15345Yes1,636*
260-3-14NoNo4357Yes508*
250-2-15NoNo2872Yes176
240-1-16NoNo1486Yes22
230-0-17NoNo1684Yes1,295
Total:0.0%0.1%00000001123468111621187046.1%10,421,760

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points
Chance Will Win Championship