"...per the brilliant Sports Club Stats"
(thank you Mr. Dater)

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 9/2100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Direct qualify100.0*Average seed
Wales 1 Austria 0 +4.5
+7.5
+2.8
Georgia 1 Republic of Ire 1 +2.1
+2.2
+0.3
Serbia 3 Moldova 0 -1.8
-1.8
-0.3
Kazakhstan 0 Montenegro 3 -0.5
-0.0
Denmark 4 Poland 0 -0.5
-0.1
Bulgaria 3 Sweden 2 +0.3
Finland 1 Iceland 0 +0.2
+0.1
Greece 0 Estonia 0 +0.2
Slovakia 1 Slovenia 0 -0.1
San Marino 0 N Ireland 3 -0.1
Israel 0 Macedonia 1 +0.1
Lithuania 0 Scotland 3 -0.1
Czech Republic 1 Germany 2 +0.1
France 4 Netherlands 0 +0.0
Albania 2 Liechtenstein 0 -0.0

What If

Chances based on how well the Wales finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inDirectChance will finish regular season at seed
TPW-D-Lplayoffsqualify123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354Count
202-0-016.7%58.3%0017904202921820173,039,150
181-1-02.634.8003004184233152,974,405
171-0-1Out7.100011348141012830113,147,510
160-2-0Out0.8022700416291930033,838,056
150-1-1Out0.001000213352450144100049,981,299
140-0-2OutNo0022336193027610018,442,020
Total:6.1%30.0%0002301698815220124564100010000541,422,440
Points
Chance Will Make Playoffs