Philadelphia Union Playoff Chances 50/50

Did not play, playoff odds down 1 to 50.7%
2 points   0-2-0

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 3/11100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Supporters Shield100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
Union 2 Toronto FC 2 -1.8
-0.2
-0.6
+0.3
-0.1
Minnesota 1 Atlanta 6 -0.8
-0.1
-0.1
Fire 2 Real Salt Lake 0 -0.8
-0.1
-0.1
Red Bulls 1 Rapids 0 -0.7
-0.1
-0.1
Dynamo 3 Crew 1 +0.6
+0.1
-0.1
+0.0
Impact 2 Sounders 2 +0.2
+0.0
NYCFC 4 DC United 0 -0.2
Galaxy 0 Timbers 1 -0.1
Sporting KC 0 FC Dallas 0 +0.1
Earthquakes 3 Whitecaps 2 -0.1
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Revolution vs Orlando-0.2+0.4-0.1
+0.0+0.1-0.1
+0.1-0.0-0.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 3/18100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Supporters Shield100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
Orlando vs Union-7.3-1.9+8.8
-0.8-0.2+1.0
-1.2-0.5+1.6
+1.8+0.3-2.0
-0.5-0.1+0.7
Whitecaps vs Toronto FC+0.7+0.2-0.8
+0.1+0.0-0.1
+0.1+0.0-0.1
FC Dallas vs Revolution+0.7+0.2-0.8
+0.1+0.0-0.1
-0.1+0.0+0.0
-0.0-0.0+0.1
+0.1+0.0-0.1
Sounders vs Red Bulls+0.6+0.2-0.7
+0.1+0.0-0.1
+0.0+0.1-0.1
+0.1-0.0-0.1
+0.0+0.0-0.1
DC United vs Crew-0.2+0.5-0.2
-0.0+0.1-0.0
NYCFC vs Impact-0.2+0.4-0.2
-0.0-0.0+0.1
Atlanta vs Fire-0.2+0.4-0.1
-0.0+0.1-0.0
*-0.0+0.1-0.0
Sporting KC vs Earthquakes+0.0+0.1-0.1
+0.1-0.0-0.1
Timbers vs Dynamo-0.0+0.1-0.0
Rapids vs Minnesota-0.1-0.0+0.1
Real Salt Lake vs Galaxy*+0.0-0.1+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Union finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inSupportersChance will finish regular season at seedWooden
TPW-D-LplayoffsShield1234567891011SpoonCount
75-98In100.0%100No16,950*
7422-6-4In99.81000No3,600*
7322-5-5In99.61000No5,988*
7221-7-4In99.51000No10,235*
7121-6-5In99.11000No16,632*
7021-5-6In98.51000No25,712*
6920-7-5In97.6991No40,485*
6820-6-6In96.4991No61,232*
6719-8-5In94.59820No92,259*
6619-7-6In91.79730No134,679*
6519-6-7In88.095500No191,820*
6418-8-6In82.793700No270,730*
6318-7-7In76.3901000No375,250*
6218-6-8In68.1861310No507,156*
6117-8-7In58.18118100No676,545*
6017-7-8In47.07424200No884,336*
5916-9-7In35.466304000No1,137,306*
5816-8-8In24.457367100No1,437,451*
5716-7-9In14.9464112100No1,777,560*
5615-9-8100.0%7.83644173000No2,166,924*
5515-8-9100.03.42643246100No2,595,065*
5415-7-10100.01.1173931112000No3,048,157*
5314-9-9100.00.3103236174000No3,522,706*
5214-8-1099.90.0523362581000No3,998,127*
5114-7-1199.50.021532311540000No4,457,680*
5013-9-1098.40.01824342381000No4,880,129*
4913-8-1195.4No041531301541000No5,252,573*
4812-10-1088.8No01823322492000No5,553,353*
4712-9-1177.4No003142931175100No5,769,643*
4612-8-1261.1No001721322611200No5,887,521*
4511-10-1142.7No000312273219610No5,897,232*
4411-9-1225.8No00161932281220No5,798,709*
4311-8-1313.3No000211263321610.0%5,606,395*
4210-10-125.8No000151833291220.05,317,669*
4110-9-132.2No00021128352040.04,952,658*
4010-8-140.7No0001520373080.24,521,769*
399-10-130.2No0002123338150.94,056,020*
389-9-140.0No00172643232.83,560,507*
379-8-150.0No00031944347.13,067,689*
368-10-140.0No000112414514.22,593,671*
358-9-150.0No0017365624.12,144,445*
348-8-16OutNo004306635.91,740,347*
337-10-15OutNo002237548.41,383,750*
327-9-16OutNo001178260.21,072,299*
317-8-17OutNo000128770.6815,943*
306-10-16OutNo0089179.1605,986*
296-9-17OutNo069485.6440,328*
286-8-18OutNo049690.4311,753*
275-10-17OutNo029893.8215,193*
265-9-18OutNo019996.0144,760*
255-8-19OutNo019997.595,503*
244-10-18OutNo010098.661,201*
234-9-19OutNo010099.137,675*
224-8-20OutNo010099.522,759*
213-10-19OutNo010099.713,363*
203-9-20OutNo010099.97,500*
193-8-21OutNo010099.84,127*
2-18OutNo100Yes16,653*
Total:50.7%3.2%7889999101010105.0%109,303,708

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Union finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPW-D-LWin CupByeRed BullsOrlandoFireAtlantaNYCFCToronto FCRevolutionImpactCrewDC United
66-9812.5%Yes
6519-6-712.51000
6418-8-612.61000
6318-7-712.51000000000
6218-6-812.51000000000000
6117-8-712.61000000000000
6017-7-812.51000000000000
5916-9-712.51000000000000
5816-8-812.5990000000000
5716-7-912.4990000000000
15-10-712.4990000000000
5615-9-812.3970000000000
16-6-1012.3970000000000
5515-8-912.1931111111111
14-11-712.1941111111111
5415-7-1011.7871111111111
14-10-811.8871111111111
5314-9-911.0773222222222
15-6-1111.1792222222222
13-12-711.1782222222222
5214-8-1010.2654444433333
13-11-810.2644444433333
15-5-1210.3674443333333
5114-7-119.1505555554444
13-10-99.0485555554444
12-13-79.2515555544444
5013-9-107.6326666665555
14-6-127.9356666655555
12-12-87.8336666665555
4913-8-116.2197776666555
12-11-96.1187776666555
14-5-136.4217776666565
4812-10-104.696666655555
13-7-124.8106666655555
11-13-84.7106666665555
4712-9-113.145554444444
13-6-133.245555544444
4612-8-121.913333333333
11-11-101.913333333333
4511-10-111.002222221111
4411-9-120.401111111111
4311-8-130.200000000000
4210-10-120.000000000000
4110-9-130.000000000000
4010-8-140.000000000000
399-10-130.00000000000
389-9-140.0000000000
379-8-15No0000
369-7-16No0
2-35No
Total:4.1%23.72.01.91.91.91.91.81.71.61.61.6
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 3/11100.0*Lottery seed
Union 2 Toronto FC 2 +0.3
Red Bulls 1 Rapids 0 +0.1
Fire 2 Real Salt Lake 0 +0.1
Minnesota 1 Atlanta 6 +0.1
Dynamo 3 Crew 1 -0.0
Impact 2 Sounders 2 -0.0
NYCFC 4 DC United 0 +0.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Revolution vs Orlando+0.0-0.1+0.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 3/18100.0*Lottery seed
Orlando vs Union+1.1+0.3-1.3
FC Dallas vs Revolution-0.0-0.0+0.1
Whitecaps vs Toronto FC-0.0-0.0+0.1
Sounders vs Red Bulls-0.0-0.0+0.1
DC United vs Crew+0.0-0.1+0.0

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPW-D-L12345678910111213141516171819202122
77-98100
7623-5-41000
7523-4-51000
7422-6-410000
7322-5-510000
7221-7-49900
7121-6-59910
7021-5-69910
6920-7-598210
6820-6-69621
6719-8-594420
6619-7-6925300
6519-6-78875000
6418-8-683117000
6318-7-776149000
6218-6-8681813010
6117-8-758231801000
6017-7-847272312000
5916-9-7353128240000
5816-8-82432314701000
5716-7-915313381101000
5615-9-8828301317130000
5515-8-93222419222601000
5415-7-10116162425610020000
5314-9-90108242411161400000
5214-8-100532118182238010000
5114-7-11021141022239141400000
5013-9-1001083211716203801000
4913-8-1100411592221915141000
4812-10-10001083201517204920000
4712-9-1100031147222010166100000
4612-8-120001072191319211341000
4511-10-110000301252219221241000
4411-9-120001061181123231241000
4311-8-130000201141525241341000
4210-10-12000010517182724134100
4110-9-130000202820282412300
4010-8-1400001003102229231020
399-10-1300000141225302071
389-9-140000015163030153
379-8-1500000282334257
368-10-14000000415323514
358-9-15000018264124
348-8-160004184236
337-10-15001113948
327-9-1600163360
317-8-170032671
306-10-160021979
296-9-17011486
286-8-1800990
275-10-170694
265-9-180496
255-8-190298
244-10-180199
234-9-19199
224-8-2000100
213-10-190100
203-9-200100
193-8-210100
2-18100
Total:3444454545455555555555