Philadelphia Union Playoff Chances

Lost to Red Bulls 1-3, playoff odds down 8.2 to 5.4%
22 points   6-4-13

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 8/1100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Supporters Shield100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
Union 1 Red Bulls 3 -5.8
-0.2
+8.3
-0.4
Revolution 3 Toronto FC 1 -1.1
+0.3
-0.1
Orlando 5 Crew 2 -0.4
+1.0
-0.1
NYCFC 2 Impact 3 +0.1
-1.2
+0.1
DC United 6 Real Salt Lake 4 -0.2
Sporting KC 1 Dynamo 1 +0.1
Rapids 1 Galaxy 3 -0.7
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Toronto FC vs Orlando+0.2+0.1-0.6
-0.3+0.1+0.5
Impact vs Red Bulls-0.3+0.1+0.4
+0.1*+0.0-0.1
Fire vs FC Dallas-0.2+0.1+0.1
+5.8-1.6-4.8
-0.1+0.0+0.1
Earthquakes vs Timbers+0.2-0.1-0.4
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 8/7100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Supporters Shield100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
Orlando vs Union-2.6-0.1+7.2
-0.1-0.0+0.2
No-0.0+0.0
+6.2-1.2-15.4
-0.2+0.0+0.6
Rapids vs Crew+0.4-0.1-0.8
+1.2-0.5-1.8
Red Bulls vs NYCFC+0.2-0.0-0.7
-0.9+0.4+2.3
+0.0-0.0-0.1
NYCFC vs DC United-0.4+0.2+0.4
+1.9-0.5-2.1
-0.1+0.0+0.1
Impact vs DC United-0.3+0.1+0.4
+0.1*-0.0-0.1
Toronto FC vs Sporting KC-0.2+0.0+0.2
Timbers vs Fire+0.1+0.0-0.3
-2.7+0.4+7.2
+0.1-0.0-0.1
Whitecaps vs Real Salt Lake-0.2+0.1+0.5

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Union finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inSupportersChance will finish regular season at seedWooden
TPW-D-LplayoffsShield12345678910SpoonCount
5511-0-0In1.2%31521600No67,941
5310-1-0In0.112473840No4,437
5210-0-1InNo63748100No7,589
519-2-0InNo327551510No23,669
509-1-1InNo115532830No81,745
498-3-0100.0%No074540800No145,199*
488-2-1100.0No0332471620No389,051
478-1-299.7No01184630500No811,463*
467-3-198.6No008374013100No1,434,449*
457-2-294.9No03234325500No2,899,580*
447-1-385.0No0111363714100No4,841,577*
436-3-268.5No004234126500No7,673,379*
426-2-346.4No0111353914100.0%12,447,438*
415-4-226.0No004224327400.09,174,011
6-1-423.9No003214328500.08,403,207*
405-3-311.0No0011036401210.019,695,461
6-0-59.9No01935421210.14,474,637*
395-2-43.4No00324482320.423,569,255
4-5-23.5No00323472420.58,875,545*
384-4-30.8No00112443761.923,271,400
5-1-50.7No00112463751.715,899,600*
374-3-40.1No0053648125.636,595,603
3-6-20.1No0043349146.95,502,599
5-0-60.1No0043648115.33,913,285*
364-2-50.0No00225532012.634,175,815
3-5-30.0No00122532314.517,573,379*
353-4-40.0No00014523325.033,343,722
4-1-60.0No0015533123.519,718,189*
343-3-50.0No008484437.440,910,417
2-6-30.0No006454941.47,808,997
4-0-70.0No008494235.73,887,909*
333-2-6OutNo04405550.331,002,079
2-5-4OutNo03375954.118,361,230*
322-4-5OutNo02296965.526,979,210
3-1-7OutNo02316763.515,260,522*
312-3-6OutNo01227775.426,850,782
1-6-4OutNo00198178.85,214,571
3-0-8OutNo1247673.62,503,007*
302-2-7OutNo0158483.416,977,437
1-5-5OutNo0138785.89,524,423*
291-4-6OutNo089191.011,412,573
2-1-8OutNo0109089.76,821,552*
281-3-7OutNo059594.69,472,663
0-6-5OutNo059594.92,304,485*
271-2-8OutNo039797.37,004,003*
260-4-7OutNo019998.73,555,893*
250-3-8OutNo0010099.51,607,046*
240-2-9OutNo010099.8644,460
230-1-10OutNo0100100.0176,867
220-0-11OutNo100Yes89,689
Total:5.4%0.0%000113717323834.1%543,383,040

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Union finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPW-D-LWin CupByeDC UnitedRed BullsToronto FCImpactCrewRevolutionOrlandoNYCFCFire
5511-0-012.2%100000000000
5310-1-012.196001110000
5210-0-111.990012321100
519-2-011.384013442110
509-1-111.069126874210
498-3-09.95513912105320
9-0-29.649231113106420
488-2-18.335241316138530
478-1-26.6182516191510631
7-4-07.021251618159530
467-3-15.292516191510631
8-0-34.872516181411731
457-2-23.53141416129631
6-5-03.73141417139531
447-1-32.0112101187420
6-4-12.2113101297421
436-3-21.10016754210
7-0-40.90115644210
5-6-01.10016754210
426-2-30.40013322100
5-5-10.50013322110
415-4-20.10001111000
6-1-40.10001101000
4-7-00.1001111000
405-3-30.00000000000
6-0-50.0000000000
4-6-10.0000000000
395-2-40.0000000000
4-5-20.0000000000
3-8-00.0000000000
384-4-30.0000000000
5-1-50.0000000000
3-7-10.000000000
374-3-40.0000000000
3-6-20.000000000
5-0-6No0000000
2-9-0No
364-2-50.0000
3-5-3No00
2-8-1No
353-4-4No0
4-1-6No
2-7-2No
1-10-0No
22-34No
Total:0.1%0.10.00.10.40.50.30.30.20.10.0
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 8/1100.0*Lottery seed
Union 1 Red Bulls 3 +0.8
Revolution 3 Toronto FC 1 +0.1
Orlando 5 Crew 2 +0.1
Rapids 1 Galaxy 3 -0.1
NYCFC 2 Impact 3 -0.0
DC United 6 Real Salt Lake 4 -0.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Fire vs FC Dallas+0.1-0.0-0.1
Toronto FC vs Orlando-0.0-0.0+0.1
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 8/7100.0*Lottery seed
Orlando vs Union+0.4-0.0-1.1
NYCFC vs DC United+0.1-0.0-0.1
Red Bulls vs NYCFC-0.0+0.0+0.1
Timbers vs Fire-0.0-0.0+0.1
Whitecaps vs Real Salt Lake-0.0+0.0+0.1

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPW-D-L1234567891011121314151617181920
5511-0-01301636124000
5310-1-00123441522300
5210-0-161351236730
519-2-0302764987100
509-1-110152511019310
498-3-000704473353000
488-2-10303234479100
478-1-20101814572242000
467-3-10008037436771000
457-2-20302314271841000
447-1-301011036433762000
436-3-200402314071293000
426-2-30101103441520113000
415-4-2004022110242511200
6-1-4003020110252512200
405-3-300101004183225910
6-0-50109041732261020
395-2-4000301825352260
4-5-200301724352360
384-4-3001002123235162
5-1-5001002123235162
374-3-40000042139296
3-6-20000041939327
5-0-60000042140295
364-2-50000110344213
3-5-3000019324314
353-4-4000004234825
4-1-600004244924
343-3-50001144837
2-6-30001124641
4-0-70001144936
333-2-600074250
2-5-400064054
322-4-50033266
3-1-70033364
312-3-60012375
1-6-4012079
3-0-8012574
302-2-7001683
1-5-5001486
291-4-600991
2-1-8001090
281-3-70595
0-6-50595
271-2-80397
260-4-70199
250-3-800100
240-2-90100
230-1-100100
220-0-11100
Total:00000001010301359152634