Philadelphia Union Playoff Chances

Did not play, playoff odds down 0.5 to 92%
30 points   8-6-7

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 7/24100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Supporters Shield100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
Red Bulls 4 NYCFC 1 -0.1
-0.1
-0.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
NYCFC vs Rapids-0.3+0.0+0.2
-0.2+0.1+0.2
+0.1+0.0-0.1
-0.1+0.0+0.1
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 7/31100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Supporters Shield100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
Union vs Real Salt Lake+3.5-2.3-6.0
+0.9-0.7-1.5
+0.2-0.2-0.3
-0.0+0.0+0.1
+0.4-0.3-0.7
DC United vs Union-4.1+0.5+5.2
-1.0-0.1+1.5
-0.3-0.1+0.5
-0.4-0.0+0.7
DC United vs Impact-0.7+0.4+0.5
+0.0+0.1-0.1
+0.0+0.0-0.1
Toronto FC vs Revolution+0.2+0.2-0.8
-0.1+0.2+0.1
-0.0+0.1+0.0
Toronto FC vs Real Salt Lake-0.4+0.3+0.6
-0.2+0.1+0.3
-0.1+0.1+0.1
Real Salt Lake vs Fire+0.2+0.0-0.6
Orlando vs Revolution-0.2+0.5-0.3
-0.0+0.1-0.1
Impact vs Dynamo-0.2+0.1+0.3
-0.1+0.1+0.2
-0.1+0.1+0.1
Earthquakes vs NYCFC+0.1-0.0-0.3
+0.1-0.0-0.3
+0.1-0.0-0.1
Toronto FC vs Crew-0.1+0.3-0.1
-0.2+0.2+0.2
-0.1+0.1+0.1
Fire vs Red Bulls-0.2+0.1+0.1
+0.1+0.0-0.1
+0.1+0.0-0.1
Rapids vs Whitecaps-0.1+0.1+0.2
Sounders vs Galaxy+0.1+0.0-0.1
FC Dallas vs Whitecaps-0.1+0.1+0.1

What If

Chances based on how well the Union finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inSupportersChance will finish regular season at seedWooden
TPW-D-LplayoffsShield12345678910SpoonCount
6913-0-0In96.0%1000No6,687,181
6712-1-0In88.81000No798,032
6612-0-1In83.01000No1,132,985
6511-2-0In75.21000No3,916,372
6411-1-1In66.01000No11,008,268
6310-3-0In54.410000No19,275,197*
6210-2-1In43.110000No48,489,802
6110-1-2In31.39910No90,219,414*
609-3-1In20.899100No158,822,203*
599-2-2In12.797200No296,294,369*
589-1-3In6.695500No464,426,527*
578-3-2In3.0918000No728,305,145*
568-2-3In1.18514100No1,105,697,191*
557-4-2In0.37722200No1,519,310,991*
547-3-3In0.165314000No2,070,922,050*
537-2-4In0.051399100No1,653,418,753
6-5-2In0.051399100No1,021,757,852*
526-4-3100.0%0.03745162000No2,208,030,090
7-1-5In0.0374516200No1,026,553,920*
516-3-4100.00.02345265000No2,877,580,029
5-6-2100.00.02345265000No950,122,482*
506-2-5100.00.013393512100No2,226,257,692
5-5-3100.00.012383612100No2,054,502,464*
495-4-4100.0No52841224000No3,187,290,893
6-1-6100.00.052841224000No1,352,654,461*
485-3-5100.0No216383310100No3,253,268,103
4-6-3100.0No215383410100No1,413,316,680*
474-5-499.9No072841213000No2,330,738,333
5-2-699.9No07294120200No2,201,884,934*
464-4-599.5No021640348100No2,942,666,140
5-1-799.5No021640348100No1,245,614,466*
454-3-697.7No0173043182000No2,448,721,720
3-6-497.4No006284419200No1,274,593,442*
443-5-591.8No0021642328100No1,687,809,335
4-2-792.2No0021643317000No1,433,629,582*
433-4-680.3No0007324117200No1,737,330,284
4-1-879.6No0006314218200No745,862,854*
423-3-761.7No0021842317000.0%1,886,208,824*
412-5-640.5No0008324117200.01,342,854,119*
402-4-722.1No0003194230600.0899,870,640*
392-3-89.9No001934411410.0569,845,448*
381-5-73.5No00322452630.3333,644,444*
371-4-81.0No00112413881.5180,484,239*
361-3-90.2No0053148164.790,541,303*
351-2-100.0No00220512811.440,686,634*
340-4-90.0No0011474122.016,060,037*
330-3-100.0No005395635.75,592,558*
320-2-11OutNo02306850.31,587,043
310-1-12OutNo01217964.2295,416
300-0-13OutNo00138776.56,637,779
Total:92.0%0.4%1818171614952100.0%53,173,218,720

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Union finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPW-D-LWin CupByeRed BullsNYCFCImpactToronto FCRevolutionOrlandoDC UnitedCrewFire
61-6912.5%Yes
609-3-112.51000
599-2-212.51000000000
589-1-312.510000000000
8-4-112.510000000000
578-3-212.5100000000000
568-2-312.5100000000000
7-5-112.5100000000000
557-4-212.5100000000000
8-1-412.5100000000000
547-3-312.5100000000000
6-6-112.5100000000000
8-0-512.5100000000000
537-2-412.599000000000
6-5-212.599000000000
526-4-312.498000100000
7-1-512.498000100000
5-7-112.498000100000
516-3-412.394111211000
5-6-212.394111211000
7-0-612.394111211000
506-2-512.087222311100
5-5-311.987222412100
495-4-411.474444633200
6-1-611.475344633200
4-7-211.373434733200
485-3-510.4576761055311
4-6-310.3556671055311
6-0-710.4566771055311
474-5-48.93581091477511
5-2-69.03781091377511
3-8-28.8349991478511
464-4-57.218912101698621
5-1-77.319913111598621
3-7-37.0171011101689621
454-3-65.37913101588621
3-6-45.17912101688621
443-5-53.4271081377511
4-2-73.5271181277521
433-4-62.00475944311
4-1-81.90475844311
423-3-70.90243522110
412-5-60.40121211000
402-4-70.10010100000
392-3-80.00000000000
381-5-70.0000000000
371-4-80.0000000000
361-3-90.000000000
351-2-10No0000
30-34No
Total:8.7%53.43.85.04.36.73.43.42.30.60.5
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 7/24100.0*Lottery seed
Red Bulls 4 NYCFC 1 +0.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
NYCFC vs Rapids+0.2-0.1-0.2
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 7/31100.0*Lottery seed
DC United vs Union+0.9+0.1-1.3
Union vs Real Salt Lake-0.9+0.7+1.4
Earthquakes vs NYCFC-0.1-0.0+0.2
Impact vs Dynamo+0.1-0.1-0.2
Toronto FC vs Real Salt Lake+0.1-0.1-0.2
Fire vs Red Bulls-0.1-0.1+0.2
Toronto FC vs Crew+0.1-0.1-0.1
DC United vs Impact-0.1-0.1+0.1
Toronto FC vs Revolution+0.1-0.1-0.0
Orlando vs Revolution+0.0-0.1+0.1

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPW-D-L1234567891011121314151617181920
6913-0-09640
6712-1-089110
6612-0-183170
6511-2-0752500
6411-1-1663400
6310-3-05445000
6210-2-14357000
6110-1-231680000
609-3-1217810000
599-2-2138521000
589-1-378923000
578-3-23883600000
568-2-318431100000
557-4-207621911000
547-3-30652292200000
537-2-40511393610000
6-5-20511392710000
526-4-3037045214200000
7-1-503704531320000
516-3-40230452243200000
5-6-20230452253200000
506-2-50130391345610000
5-5-30120381355710000
495-4-45028040616310000
6-1-605028041715310000
485-3-520160385286410000
4-6-320150384306510000
474-5-407028239714210000
5-2-6007029338812200000
464-4-5020161396285300000
5-1-702016139726530000
454-3-6010703033971020000
3-6-4000602834171221000
443-5-50020161426265310000
4-2-7002016142725521000
433-4-6000070323387841000
4-1-8000060313397841000
423-3-700020181416141340000
412-5-60000803231524143000
402-4-70000301919272711200
392-3-80010904203424810
381-5-70003011028341940
371-4-8001003173431121
361-3-90000182638235
351-2-100000315363511
340-4-900017274322
330-3-100003174436
320-2-11001103950
310-1-120043164
300-0-130022276
Total:0180181172142112712221000