Philadelphia Union Playoff Chances

Did not play, playoff odds down 3.9 to 47.2%
2 points   0-2-0

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 3/11100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Supporters Shield100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
Union 2 Toronto FC 2 -4.1
-0.5
-1.4
+0.6
-0.3
Minnesota 1 Atlanta 6 -1.0
-0.1
-0.1
Fire 2 Real Salt Lake 0 -0.6
-0.1
-0.0
Red Bulls 1 Rapids 0 -0.5
-0.1
-0.0
Dynamo 3 Crew 1 +0.4
+0.1
-0.1
+0.0
Impact 2 Sounders 2 +0.4
+0.0
NYCFC 4 DC United 0 -0.2
+0.1
Galaxy 0 Timbers 1 -0.2
-0.1
Sporting KC 0 FC Dallas 0 +0.1
Earthquakes 3 Whitecaps 2 -0.1
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Revolution vs Orlando-0.2+0.5-0.1
+0.0+0.0-0.1
+0.0+0.0-0.1
+0.1-0.1-0.1
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 3/18100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Supporters Shield100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
Orlando vs Union-5.1+0.6+12.1
-0.5+0.0+1.3
-0.7-0.1+1.8
+1.0-0.3-2.3
-0.4+0.0+0.9
Whitecaps vs Toronto FC+0.5*+0.0-1.2
+0.1*+0.0-0.1
+0.1-0.1-0.1
+0.0+0.0-0.1
FC Dallas vs Revolution+0.4-0.0-1.2
+0.0*-0.0-0.1
-0.0+0.1+0.1
-0.0*+0.0+0.1
+0.0-0.0-0.1
Sounders vs Red Bulls+0.4*+0.0-0.8
+0.1*+0.0-0.1
+0.0+0.0-0.1
+0.1-0.1-0.1
+0.0+0.0-0.1
DC United vs Crew-0.2+0.5-0.2
*-0.0-0.0+0.1
NYCFC vs Impact-0.2+0.5-0.2
-0.0+0.1+0.0
-0.0*-0.0+0.1
Atlanta vs Fire-0.2+0.4*+0.0
-0.0+0.1-0.0
*+0.0+0.0-0.1
Timbers vs Dynamo-0.0+0.1-0.0
Sporting KC vs Earthquakes*+0.0+0.0-0.1
Rapids vs Minnesota-0.1-0.0+0.2
Real Salt Lake vs Galaxy-0.0-0.0+0.2

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Union finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inSupportersChance will finish regular season at seedWooden
TPW-D-LplayoffsShield1234567891011SpoonCount
75-98In100.0%100No41,459*
7422-6-4In99.71000No3,595*
7322-5-5In99.71000No6,391*
7221-7-4In99.41000No11,420*
7121-6-5In99.11000No19,687*
7021-5-6In98.71000No33,219*
6920-7-5In97.9991No54,932*
6820-6-6In96.6991No88,511*
6719-8-5In94.89820No140,872*
6619-7-6In92.29730No218,667*
6519-6-7In88.696400No331,109*
6418-8-6In83.493600No490,073*
6318-7-7In76.790900No713,762*
6218-6-8In68.4861310No1,016,022*
6117-8-7In58.48118100No1,417,022*
6017-7-8In47.17424200No1,939,224*
5917-6-9In35.366304000No2,596,811*
5816-8-8In24.156367100No3,409,937*
5716-7-9100.0%14.64641121000No4,386,932*
5615-9-8100.07.63544183000No5,533,056*
5515-8-9100.03.225432561000No6,843,615*
5415-7-10100.01.1163932112000No8,293,764*
5314-9-9100.00.3931361840000No9,860,480*
5214-8-1099.90.0522362692000No11,481,470*
5114-7-1199.50.021431321640000No13,106,602*
5013-9-1098.30.01723342592000No14,666,237*
4913-8-1194.90.0031430311741000No16,092,548*
4812-10-1087.8No017223325102000No17,306,111*
4712-9-1175.4No003132832185100No18,239,956*
4612-8-1258.2No001619322712200No18,842,180*
4511-10-1139.4No000211263321610No19,062,700*
4411-9-1222.8No00151732291330No18,899,986*
4311-8-1311.2No00029253422610.0%18,347,503*
4210-10-124.7No000041733311320.017,446,930*
4110-9-131.6No0002927362240.016,253,176*
4010-8-140.5No0000418373190.214,814,213*
399-10-130.1No0002113239160.713,212,842*
389-9-140.0No000162544252.511,529,648*
379-8-150.0No00031744366.49,843,712*
368-10-140.0No000111414713.08,220,759*
358-9-150.0No0006355822.56,709,679*
348-8-16OutNo003286833.95,350,674*
337-10-15OutNo002227646.24,167,134*
327-9-16OutNo001168358.03,166,963*
317-8-17OutNo00118868.62,350,899*
306-10-16OutNo0089277.41,698,253*
296-9-17OutNo0059584.21,198,580*
286-8-18OutNo039789.3822,157*
275-10-17OutNo029893.0548,984*
265-9-18OutNo019995.5356,458*
255-8-19OutNo019997.2225,203*
244-10-18OutNo010098.3138,130*
234-9-19OutNo010099.081,819*
224-8-20OutNo010099.446,718*
213-10-19OutNo010099.726,061*
203-9-20OutNo010099.814,023*
193-8-21OutNo010099.87,140*
183-7-22OutNo010099.93,637*
2-17OutNo100100.040,619*
Total:47.2%2.2%578891010101111114.6%331,770,264

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Union finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPW-D-LWin CupByeRed BullsFireOrlandoNYCFCAtlantaToronto FCDC UnitedRevolutionImpactCrew
66-9812.5%Yes
6519-6-712.61000
6418-8-612.5100000
6318-7-712.41000000000
6218-6-812.51000000000000
6117-8-712.51000000000000
6017-7-812.51000000000000
5917-6-912.51000000000000
5816-8-812.4990000000000
5716-7-912.4990000000000
15-10-712.5990000000000
5615-9-812.3970000000000
16-6-1012.4970000000000
5515-8-912.1931111111100
16-5-1112.2931111111000
5415-7-1011.9872222211111
14-10-811.9872222211111
5314-9-911.3763333332222
15-6-1111.3773333322221
5214-8-1010.4634444443332
13-11-810.4624444443332
15-5-1210.6654444443222
5114-7-119.3476666654443
13-10-99.1466666654443
15-4-139.4486666654443
5013-9-107.6307777765544
14-6-127.8327777765444
12-12-87.7307777765544
4913-8-115.8177777765554
12-11-95.7167777765554
14-5-136.0187777765554
4813-7-124.186666665444
12-10-103.976666665444
11-13-84.186666665444
4712-9-112.434555544333
13-6-132.635555544333
11-12-92.434555544333
4612-8-121.313333332222
11-11-101.313333332222
4512-7-130.601111111111
4411-9-120.201111110000
4311-8-130.100000000000
4211-7-140.000000000000
4110-9-130.000000000000
4010-8-140.000000000000
3910-7-150.00000000000
3810-6-160.00000000000
378-11-13No0000
368-10-14No0
2-35No
Total:3.6%19.92.02.12.02.12.01.91.51.41.41.3
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 3/11100.0*Lottery seed
Union 2 Toronto FC 2 +0.7
Minnesota 1 Atlanta 6 +0.1
Red Bulls 1 Rapids 0 +0.1
Fire 2 Real Salt Lake 0 +0.1
Impact 2 Sounders 2 -0.0
Dynamo 3 Crew 1 -0.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 3/18100.0*Lottery seed
Orlando vs Union+0.7-0.1-1.8
FC Dallas vs Revolution-0.0-0.0+0.1
Whitecaps vs Toronto FC-0.0-0.0+0.1
Sounders vs Red Bulls-0.0-0.0+0.1
NYCFC vs Impact+0.0-0.1+0.0
DC United vs Crew+0.0-0.1+0.0

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPW-D-L12345678910111213141516171819202122
76-98100
7523-4-51000
7422-6-410000
7322-5-510000
7221-7-49900
7121-6-59910
7021-5-69910
6920-7-59811
6820-6-69721
6719-8-5953200
6619-7-6925300
6519-6-78974000
6418-8-683106000
6318-7-777149000
6218-6-86818130100
6117-8-758231801000
6017-7-847272312000
5917-6-93530282400000
5816-8-82432324701000
5716-7-9153133812010000
5615-9-8827301317130000
5515-8-932124192326010000
5415-7-10115162326611020000
5314-9-90982424121714000000
5214-8-100531918182349020000
5114-7-1102113922239151400000
5013-9-1001073201717213902000
4913-8-11000311392122916141000
4812-10-10001073191617224102000
4712-9-1100003012721211117610000
4612-8-1200010621714182214410000
4511-10-11000002010621202313410000
4411-9-120001051161224241341000
4311-8-13000020951626241341000
4210-10-12000000417192724134100
4110-9-130000202920282412300
4010-8-140000000311232922920
399-10-1300000141326301961
389-9-1400000016173029142
379-8-15000000292434246
368-10-14000001416333413
358-9-15000019274122
348-8-160004194234
337-10-150002124046
327-9-1600173458
317-8-1700042769
306-10-160022177
296-9-170011584
286-8-18001089
275-10-1700793
265-9-180496
255-8-190397
244-10-180298
234-9-190199
224-8-20199
213-10-190100
203-9-200100
193-8-210100
183-7-220100
172-9-21100
162-8-220100
2-15100
Total:2334444445555555555555