Philadelphia Union Playoff Chances

Did not play, playoff odds up 1.9 to 36.6%
23 points   5-8-8

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 7/19100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
Red Bulls 1 Earthquakes 1 +1.4
+0.1
+0.0
Earthquakes 5 Fire 1 +1.3
+0.1
+0.1
+0.1
FC Dallas 2 New England 0 +1.3
+0.1
+0.0
Crew 2 Impact 1 -1.2
-0.1
-0.2
-0.0
Dynamo 2 Toronto FC 2 +0.3
-0.1
DC United 3 Chivas USA 1 -0.1
Sporting KC 2 Galaxy 1 -0.1
Fire 1 Union 1 -0.2
+0.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Real Salt Lake vs Impact+0.1*+0.0-0.4
-0.2+0.1+0.7
+0.0-0.0-0.1
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 7/26100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
Sporting KC vs Union-5.5+0.8+16.4
-0.5+0.0+1.5
+0.5-0.3-1.2
-0.2+0.0+0.7
Real Salt Lake vs Red Bulls+1.6*+0.0-3.7
+0.1*-0.0-0.3
+0.1-0.0-0.1
New England vs Rapids-2.6+0.7+2.3
-0.2+0.1+0.2
-0.1+0.0+0.1
Fire vs Whitecaps-1.6+0.7+1.5
-0.1+0.0+0.1
+0.1-0.0-0.1
-0.1+0.0+0.1
New England vs Crew-0.6+1.4-0.6
-0.1+0.1-0.0
Toronto FC vs Sporting KC-0.7+0.2+0.7
-0.1+0.0+0.1
DC United vs Toronto FC+0.4-0.1-0.8
+0.1*-0.0-0.1
Impact vs Timbers-0.2+0.1+0.2
+0.5-0.1-0.4
Rapids vs Chivas USA-0.0+0.0+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Union finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inSupportersChance will finish regular season at seedWooden
TPW-D-LplayoffsShield12345678910SpoonCount
6213-0-0In41.4%9180No4,433
6012-1-0In20.876231No529
5912-0-1In10.061354No671
5811-2-0In6.4514360No2,716
5711-1-1In3.23850120No7,122
5610-3-0In1.12653201No13,444*
5510-2-1In0.316513120No33,409
5410-1-2In0.19444250No61,036*
539-3-1In0.043452100No112,696*
529-2-2100.0%0.0223571810No206,903*
518-4-1100.0No114552920No323,684*
508-3-299.9No074840500No514,905*
498-2-399.5No0337491000No766,441*
487-4-298.4No0125531920No1,059,394*
477-3-395.4No00155129400No1,434,680*
467-2-489.3No0843391010No1,011,607
6-5-289.2No0842391010No813,040*
456-4-378.7No03314519200No1,571,422
7-1-578.5No03304519200No624,275*
446-3-463.6No01194430600No1,835,216
5-6-262.9No01184430600No726,023*
435-5-345.5No00936401410No1,471,316
6-2-545.7No0936401410No1,341,367*
425-4-428.6No04254424400No2,119,803
6-1-628.0No0424442540No830,321*
415-3-514.9No011440369000.0%1,921,296
4-6-314.5No01134036900No1,046,241*
404-5-46.3No006304418100.01,609,628
5-2-66.3No006304419100.01,207,686*
394-4-52.1No02184531400.01,802,666
3-7-32.0No02184532400.0755,911*
384-3-60.5No0193844900.11,329,625
3-6-40.5No0193844900.1887,986*
373-5-50.1No00326511810.51,073,322
4-2-70.1No00326511910.4736,574*
363-4-60.0No0115503031.81,406,554*
353-3-70.0No007424385.1598,967
2-6-50.0No007434285.2435,144*
342-5-6OutNo0331511511.6711,945*
332-4-7OutNo0120542521.7463,603*
322-3-8OutNo0011513734.3281,730*
311-5-7OutNo05445048.1159,097*
301-4-8OutNo02356361.382,352*
291-3-9OutNo1267372.139,528*
280-5-8OutNo0188281.916,729*
270-4-9OutNo0118988.66,375*
260-3-10OutNo69493.92,055*
250-2-11OutNo69493.5495
240-1-12OutNo100Yes90
230-0-13OutNo19999.44,388
Total:36.6%0.0%0151318201915721.6%33,466,440

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Union finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPW-D-LWin CupByeSporting KCDC UnitedToronto FCNew EnglandRed BullsCrewFireDynamoImpact
59-6212.6%Yes
5811-2-011.91000
5711-1-112.71000000
5610-3-012.8990000000
5510-2-112.698000110000
5410-1-212.495000211000
9-4-012.495000211000
539-3-111.990001332100
10-0-312.389001432100
529-2-211.881002654100
8-5-011.983002553100
518-4-111.370114975200
9-1-311.068114986200
508-3-210.45511613118400
9-0-410.55311613129400
7-6-010.45711712107400
498-2-39.540229161411500
7-5-19.641229161410500
487-4-28.5272212191713610
8-1-48.6262211191715610
6-7-08.9282212191712600
477-3-37.4152213211915710
6-6-17.3162214211914710
8-0-57.4142213211917610
467-2-46.282214211916710
6-5-26.282214211915710
456-4-34.931213191715610
7-1-54.931212191716610
5-7-14.831213191714710
446-3-43.611110161413510
5-6-23.511111161412510
7-0-63.611110161414510
435-5-32.4011712109410
6-2-52.40117121010410
4-8-12.2011811109400
425-4-41.40014866200
6-1-61.40014767210
4-7-21.30014766200
415-3-50.70002433100
4-6-30.70002433100
6-0-70.70002434100
404-5-40.30001212000
5-2-60.30001212000
394-4-50.1000101000
3-7-30.1000101000
384-3-60.0000000000
373-5-50.0000000000
363-4-60.00000000
353-3-7No000
23-34No
Total:2.6%5.80.50.75.08.17.16.22.60.30.2
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 7/19100.0*Lottery seed
Red Bulls 1 Earthquakes 1 -0.1
Crew 2 Impact 1 +0.1
FC Dallas 2 New England 0 -0.0
Earthquakes 5 Fire 1 -0.0
DC United 3 Chivas USA 1 -0.0
Fire 1 Union 1 +0.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 7/26100.0*Lottery seed
Sporting KC vs Union+0.5-0.1-1.6
Real Salt Lake vs Red Bulls-0.1-0.0+0.2
New England vs Rapids+0.1-0.0-0.1
Fire vs Whitecaps+0.1-0.0-0.1
New England vs Crew+0.0-0.1+0.0
Toronto FC vs Sporting KC+0.1-0.0-0.1
DC United vs Toronto FC-0.0-0.0+0.1
Rapids vs Chivas USA-0.0-0.0+0.1

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPW-D-L12345678910111213141516171819
6213-0-04150800
6012-1-021552121
5912-0-110513154
5811-2-0645358600
5711-1-133436141200
5610-3-012531221911
5510-2-10162328283200
5410-1-2091429357500
539-3-104727361510000
529-2-2023213225171100
518-4-111132134245200
508-3-2007113727135000
498-2-300343324259100
487-4-20011241638145200
477-3-30001574416134100
467-2-4007340142582000
6-5-2008241122783000
456-4-30030307381182000
7-1-5003130837128200
446-3-401019341111582000
5-6-20101824110159200
435-5-30009135719198200
6-2-5009135820187100
425-4-400402531627196100
6-1-60402441727186100
415-3-5010141102629154000
4-6-30101318253017400
404-5-400060316322912200
5-2-600060417322711200
394-4-502017233524710
3-7-302017233524710
384-3-6010021230351730
3-6-4010021129361830
373-5-50000418373180
4-2-70000519373080
363-4-6000192941182
353-3-700031842315
2-6-500031743325
342-5-6019354412
332-4-7003245122
322-3-801145134
311-5-70074548
301-4-8033661
291-3-9012772
280-5-801882
270-4-901189
260-3-10694
250-2-11694
240-1-12100
230-0-13199
Total:000114211315369111110852