Philadelphia Union Playoff Chances

Tied Earthquakes 1-1, playoff odds down 0.8 to 89.6%
13 points   4-1-3

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 4/24100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Supporters Shield100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
Union 1 Earthquakes 1 -2.0
-0.4
-2.1
+0.1
-0.2
Red Bulls 4 FC Dallas 0 -0.4
-0.1
+0.3
NYCFC 3 Whitecaps 2 -0.4
Sounders 1 Crew 0 +0.3
+0.1
+0.0
Revolution 1 Timbers 1 +0.3
Revolution 2 Orlando 2 +0.3
+0.1
Fire 1 DC United 1 +0.2
+0.1
NYCFC 1 Impact 1 +0.2
+0.1
Impact 2 Rapids 2 +0.1
+0.1
+0.2
+0.0
Red Bulls 3 Orlando 2 +0.1
+0.1
+0.0
Real Salt Lake 2 Dynamo 1 -0.2
Whitecaps 1 Sporting KC 1 +0.1
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 5/1100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Supporters Shield100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
Crew vs Impact-0.3+0.2+0.3
-0.0+0.1-0.0
+0.1+0.1-0.2
Orlando vs Red Bulls-0.1+0.2-0.2
-0.1+0.1+0.0
-0.0+0.0+0.1
Toronto FC vs FC Dallas-0.1+0.1+0.2
-0.1+0.0+0.1
-0.2+0.3+0.2
-0.0+0.0+0.1
Timbers vs Toronto FC+0.1+0.0-0.1
+0.0+0.0-0.1
+0.3+0.1-0.5
+0.0+0.0-0.1
Sporting KC vs Galaxy+0.3+0.2-0.6
Rapids vs Real Salt Lake-0.2+0.4-0.1
Sounders vs Earthquakes+0.1+0.1-0.2
Dynamo vs Sporting KC+0.1+0.0-0.2

What If

Chances based on how well the Union finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inSupportersChance will finish regular season at seedWooden
TPW-D-LplayoffsShield12345678910SpoonCount
79-91In100.0%100No230,735*
7821-2-3In100.01000No8,006*
7720-4-2In99.91000No16,787*
7620-3-3In99.91000No33,521*
7519-5-2In99.81000No64,393*
7419-4-3In99.81000No120,240*
7319-3-4In99.61000No218,285*
7218-5-3In99.31000No381,461*
7118-4-4In98.91000No651,925*
7017-6-3In98.21000No1,076,298*
6917-5-4In97.110000No1,731,264*
6817-4-5In95.59910No2,710,873*
6716-6-4In93.29910No4,123,172*
6616-5-5In89.99820No6,117,969*
6515-7-4In85.39730No8,832,505*
6415-6-5In79.49640No12,438,169*
6315-5-6In71.994600No17,066,337*
6214-7-5In62.891900No22,848,597*
6114-6-6In52.5871200No29,818,426*
6014-5-7In41.48317000No37,995,047*
5913-7-6In30.47722100No47,221,764*
5813-6-7In20.47028200No57,291,944*
5713-5-8In12.26135400No67,826,595*
5612-7-7In6.352417000No78,415,171*
5512-6-8In2.8424611100No88,479,180*
5411-8-7100.0%1.03249172000No97,470,824*
5311-7-8100.00.32349254000No104,785,030*
5211-6-9100.00.01544337100No109,992,119*
5110-8-8100.00.083740142000No112,687,633*
5010-7-9100.00.042742224000No112,660,718*
4910-6-10100.00.0217403191000No109,930,455*
489-8-999.8No193238173000No104,645,685*
479-7-1099.0No042238278100No97,155,375*
469-6-1196.6No01123235163000No87,967,464*
458-8-1090.8No0052237268100No77,672,917*
448-7-1179.8No00212313416300No66,818,966*
437-9-1063.5No00052236279100.0%55,999,085*
427-8-1144.5No00212313517300.045,708,297*
417-7-1226.9No0015213627810.036,322,892*
406-9-1113.9No0021231361720.128,073,597*
396-8-126.1No001623392760.521,099,490*
386-7-132.3No0002143637121.915,399,947*
375-9-120.7No000172843215.310,920,729*
365-8-130.2No000320453211.97,515,124*
355-7-140.0No00112434421.65,004,277*
344-9-130.0No0007375633.83,230,847*
334-8-140.0No003296747.22,017,115*
324-7-150.0No002227760.01,216,674*
313-9-140.0No001158471.2707,947*
303-8-15OutNo00109080.2395,593*
293-7-16OutNo069486.9212,899*
283-6-17OutNo049691.8109,635*
272-8-16OutNo029895.053,862*
262-7-17OutNo19997.125,451*
252-6-18OutNo19998.411,482*
241-8-17OutNo010098.84,808*
231-7-18OutNo010099.51,846*
221-6-19OutNo010099.4702*
13-21OutNo100Yes224,411*
Total:89.6%7.5%232217129653210.4%1,801,762,560

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Union finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPW-D-LWin CupByeToronto FCImpactOrlandoDC UnitedNYCFCCrewFireRed BullsRevolution
64-9112.5%Yes
6315-5-612.5100000
6214-7-512.51000000000
6114-6-612.5100000000000
6014-5-712.5100000000000
5913-7-612.5100000000000
14-4-812.5100000000000
5813-6-712.5100000000000
12-9-512.5100000000000
5713-5-812.5100000000000
12-8-612.5100000000000
5612-7-712.5100000000000
13-4-912.5100000000000
5512-6-812.599000000000
11-9-612.599000000000
5411-8-712.598000000000
12-5-912.498000000000
5311-7-812.496001100000
12-4-1012.496001110000
10-10-612.496001110000
5211-6-912.292111111111
10-9-712.292111111111
5110-8-811.985122222211
11-5-1011.985122222211
5010-7-911.474234433322
9-10-711.373234433322
11-4-1111.373234433322
4910-6-1010.659356654443
9-9-810.558356654543
489-8-99.442468866655
10-5-119.442468866655
8-11-79.341478866655
479-7-107.9265810977766
8-10-87.8255810987766
469-6-116.21458101088776
8-9-96.11358101088776
458-8-104.46479977765
9-5-124.35469977765
448-7-112.82357655554
437-9-101.51234433332
427-8-110.70112222221
417-7-120.30011111111
406-9-110.10000000000
396-8-120.00000000000
386-7-130.00000000000
375-9-120.00000000000
365-8-130.0000000000
355-7-140.000000000
345-6-15No0
13-33No
Total:9.2%61.71.52.43.23.12.52.42.42.11.8
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 4/24100.0*Lottery seed
Union 1 Earthquakes 1 +0.5
Red Bulls 3 Orlando 2 -0.1
Impact 2 Rapids 2 -0.1
Revolution 2 Orlando 2 -0.0
Sounders 1 Crew 0 -0.0
NYCFC 1 Impact 1 -0.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 5/1100.0*Lottery seed
Toronto FC vs FC Dallas+0.1-0.1-0.1
Timbers vs Toronto FC-0.1-0.0+0.1
Crew vs Impact-0.0-0.1+0.1
Orlando vs Red Bulls+0.0-0.1-0.0

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPW-D-L1234567891011121314151617181920
82-91100
8122-2-21000
8021-4-11000
7921-3-21000
7821-2-310000
7720-4-210000
7620-3-310000
7519-5-210000
7419-4-310000
7319-3-410000
7218-5-39910
7118-4-49910
7017-6-39820
6917-5-4972000
6817-4-5964100
6716-6-4936100
6616-5-5908200
6515-7-48512300
6415-6-57916400
6315-5-6722260000
6214-7-5632890000
6114-6-65235121000
6014-5-741411510000
5913-7-630471931000
5813-6-7204922620000
5713-5-81249231140000
5612-7-764622196100000
5512-6-833918289210000
5411-8-71311336125200000
5311-7-80227421411300000
5211-6-901434112216110000
5110-8-80813693195200000
5010-7-9040274381012410000
4910-6-10020171388237310000
489-8-91090325339930000
479-7-100040212378196210000
469-6-110010120325309831000
458-8-100005022235818621000
448-7-110020120315299731000
437-9-10000050222349141031000
427-8-11000201213061619113000
417-7-1200105021313242210200
406-9-11000201217202920810
396-8-1200106031227301750
386-7-1300002015193228122
375-9-120001002102634225
365-8-13000000417343312
355-7-14000019284122
344-9-13000004194334
334-8-1400002124047
324-7-15000063360
313-9-1400032671
303-8-150011880
293-7-16011387
283-6-1700892
272-8-160595
262-7-170397
252-6-180298
241-8-17199
231-7-18199
221-6-19199
13-21100
Total:716616413310272512221110