Philadelphia Union Playoff Chances

Did not play, playoff odds down 2.7 to 38.4%
5 points   1-2-3

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 4/11100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Supporters Shield100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
Union 2 NYCFC 1 +6.9
+0.5
+0.2
-5.6
+0.4
Timbers 0 Orlando 2 -1.5
-0.1
+0.1
-0.1
Dynamo 3 Impact 0 +0.5
+0.3
+0.0
Revolution 0 Crew 0 +0.5
-0.1
DC United 2 Red Bulls 2 +0.2
Galaxy 1 Sounders 0 +0.3
Earthquakes 1 Whitecaps 0 +0.3
Sporting KC 0 Real Salt Lake 0 -0.1
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
NYCFC vs Union-5.2+0.8+12.8
-0.5+0.0+1.2
-0.3-0.1+0.8
+2.5-0.6-5.8
-0.3+0.0+0.8
Revolution vs Fire-0.3+0.6-0.2
+0.0-0.1+0.1
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 4/17100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Supporters Shield100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
Union vs Revolution+7.0-4.8-10.4
+0.6-0.4-0.9
+0.3-0.3-0.4
-3.7+2.3+5.9
+0.4-0.3-0.6
NYCFC vs Timbers-0.8+0.6+1.2
-0.1+0.1+0.1
-0.1-0.1+0.3
-0.0+0.0+0.1
FC Dallas vs Toronto FC+0.6-0.0-1.4
+0.0*-0.0-0.1
+0.0-0.1+0.1
+0.0-0.0-0.1
DC United vs Dynamo-0.5+0.3+0.7
-0.1+0.0+0.1
-0.0-0.0+0.1
Impact vs Fire-0.1+0.5-0.5
+0.0+0.0-0.1
+0.4-0.3-0.5
Red Bulls vs Earthquakes-0.4+0.3+0.6
-0.1+0.0+0.1
-0.1+0.0+0.1
Crew vs Orlando-0.3+0.5+0.1
-0.0+0.1-0.0
+0.1-0.1-0.2
Galaxy vs Sporting KC+0.0-0.1-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Union finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inSupportersChance will finish regular season at seedWooden
TPW-D-LplayoffsShield12345678910SpoonCount
73-89In100.0%100No104,536*
7221-4-3In99.31000No845*
7121-3-4In99.8100No1,695*
7020-5-3In99.41000No3,568*
6920-4-4In99.11000No6,888*
6819-6-3In98.71000No13,196*
6719-5-4In97.59910No24,580*
6619-4-5In96.19910No44,782*
6518-6-4In94.29820No78,564*
6418-5-5In90.99730No135,208*
6317-7-4In86.69550No226,639*
6217-6-5In80.593700No369,455*
6117-5-6In72.6891100No588,429*
6016-7-5In62.9851510No918,080*
5916-6-6In51.57920100No1,395,616*
5816-5-7In39.27126300No2,071,292*
5715-7-6In27.16233500No3,006,171*
5615-6-7In16.552398100No4,256,547*
5515-5-8100.0%8.64144141000No5,895,280*
5414-7-7100.03.63046213000No7,975,169*
5314-6-8100.01.12044287100No10,552,664*
5213-8-7100.00.3123835132000No13,644,128*
5113-7-8100.00.072939215000No17,257,724*
5013-6-999.90.03193829101000No21,324,939*
4912-8-899.60.01113136184000No25,776,798*
4812-7-998.6No052136279100No30,429,643*
4712-6-1095.6No02123034184000No35,141,757*
4611-8-988.9No00521352710100No39,654,916*
4511-7-1076.9No00211293418400No43,756,607*
4411-6-1160.1No00052035281010No47,189,626*
4310-8-1041.3No000211293519400.0%49,717,861*
4210-7-1124.6No0005193629910.051,159,516*
419-9-1012.6No00021130371830.151,437,552*
409-8-115.6No000522392860.450,527,371*
399-7-122.1No0002133637121.848,445,007*
388-9-110.7No00172944205.145,330,940*
378-8-120.2No000320463011.541,393,169*
368-7-130.1No00113444121.136,876,624*
357-9-120.0No0018395333.132,012,874*
347-8-130.0No0004326346.027,105,856*
337-7-140.0No0002257258.522,350,666*
326-9-130.0No001198069.517,943,491*
316-8-140.0No000148678.514,016,654*
306-7-15OutNo0099185.310,648,473*
295-9-14OutNo0069490.37,852,510*
285-8-15OutNo0049693.85,629,352*
275-7-16OutNo039796.23,908,277*
264-9-15OutNo029897.72,631,109*
254-8-16OutNo019998.61,712,996*
244-7-17OutNo19999.21,078,606*
233-9-16OutNo0010099.5655,871*
223-8-17OutNo010099.7383,717*
213-7-18OutNo010099.8216,116*
203-6-19OutNo010099.9116,429*
192-8-18OutNo010099.960,328*
182-7-19OutNo010099.929,829*
172-6-20OutNo010099.913,848*
5-16OutNo100100.0114,016*
Total:38.4%0.7%24679101214171912.9%835,214,400

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Union finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPW-D-LWin CupByeRed BullsDC UnitedOrlandoNYCFCCrewToronto FCRevolutionFireImpact
63-8912.6%Yes
6217-6-512.510000
6117-5-612.5100000000
6016-7-512.510000000000
5916-6-612.5100000000000
5816-5-712.4100000000000
5715-7-612.5100000000000
5615-6-712.599000000000
5515-5-812.499000000000
5414-7-712.496001000000
15-4-912.397000000000
5314-6-812.293111111110
13-9-612.292111111110
5213-8-711.885222222221
14-5-911.886222222221
5113-7-811.274334333331
14-4-1011.275334333331
12-10-611.174333333331
5013-6-910.360455554442
12-9-710.259455554442
14-3-1110.360455554442
4912-8-88.942677766663
13-5-109.043677666663
11-11-68.942677766663
4812-7-97.326789887774
11-10-77.225789887774
13-4-117.426789887774
4712-6-105.514789888774
11-9-85.313789887774
13-3-125.413789887774
4611-8-93.76677776664
12-5-113.86678777664
10-11-73.65677776664
4511-7-102.22455555543
10-10-82.12455555443
12-4-122.32456555543
4411-6-111.21233333332
10-9-91.10233333332
4310-8-100.50112221111
4210-7-110.20011111110
4110-6-120.10000000000
409-8-110.00000000000
399-7-120.00000000000
389-6-130.0000000000
378-8-120.0000000000
368-7-130.0000000000
357-9-120.000000000
348-5-15No0
337-7-14No0
5-32No
Total:2.4%12.01.61.92.22.01.91.81.81.71.0
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 4/11100.0*Lottery seed
Union 2 NYCFC 1 -0.9
Timbers 0 Orlando 2 +0.1
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
NYCFC vs Union+0.7-0.1-1.7
Revolution vs Fire+0.0-0.1+0.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 4/17100.0*Lottery seed
Union vs Revolution-0.9+0.6+1.3
FC Dallas vs Toronto FC-0.0-0.0+0.1
NYCFC vs Timbers+0.0-0.1-0.1
DC United vs Dynamo+0.0-0.0-0.1
Impact vs Fire+0.0-0.1+0.0
Crew vs Orlando+0.0-0.1+0.0

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPW-D-L1234567891011121314151617181920
76-89100
7522-4-2991
7422-3-3100
7321-5-21000
7221-4-39910
7121-3-41000
7020-5-39910
6920-4-49910
6819-6-39910
6719-5-498210
6619-4-596310
6518-6-494420
6418-5-5916300
6317-7-4879500
6217-6-581127000
6117-5-6731710000
6016-7-56322150100
5916-6-652271911000
5816-5-739322523000
5715-7-6273529450000
5615-6-71735328801000
5515-5-8932301413110000
5414-7-74272521182300000
5314-6-81191628236701000
5213-8-70128302313121200000
5113-7-8073261722173400000
5013-6-90311892819109110000
4912-8-801010328162015340000
4812-7-900512082817108110000
4712-6-10002012228132114440000
4611-8-900050206291611920000
4511-7-100002011228112314720000
4411-6-1100005019530151582000
4310-8-100000201112810201892000
4210-7-1100000501951625208200
419-9-100000201119222819710
409-8-1100005031327291640
399-7-1200002016193228122
388-9-110001002102635225
378-8-12000000417343312
368-7-130000019284121
357-9-12000004194333
347-8-13000002124046
337-7-1400000173459
326-9-13000032769
316-8-1400022078
306-7-150011485
295-9-14000990
285-8-1500694
275-7-1600496
264-9-150298
254-8-160199
244-7-170199
233-9-1600100
223-8-170100
213-7-180100
203-6-190100
192-8-180100
182-7-190100
172-6-200100
161-8-190100
151-7-200100
141-6-21100
131-5-22199
5-12100
Total:1213242526383467891113