Philadelphia Union Playoff Chances

Did not play, playoff odds up 0.7 to 41.8%
2 points   0-2-1

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 3/21100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Supporters Shield100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
Union 0 FC Dallas 2 -8.7
-1.0
-1.6
+2.5
-0.6
Orlando 0 Whitecaps 1 +0.9
+0.1
+0.2
+0.1
Revolution 0 Impact 0 +0.6
+0.1
-0.1
Earthquakes 2 Fire 1 +0.5
-0.2
+0.0
Red Bulls 2 DC United 0 -0.3
+0.1
Rapids 0 NYCFC 0 +0.1
Sporting KC 0 Timbers 0 -0.2
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 3/28100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Supporters Shield100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
Fire vs Union-5.6*-0.0+11.3
-0.5-0.0+1.1
-0.3-0.1+0.8
+2.7-0.6-4.8
-0.4+0.0+0.7
DC United vs Galaxy-0.9+0.5+1.1
-0.1+0.0+0.1
+0.1-0.1-0.1
-0.0+0.0+0.1
Revolution vs Earthquakes-0.8+0.5+1.1
-0.1+0.0+0.1
+0.2-0.1-0.3
-0.1+0.0+0.1
Real Salt Lake vs Toronto FC+0.5-0.0-1.1
+0.1*-0.0-0.1
+0.1-0.1-0.2
+0.0-0.0-0.1
NYCFC vs Sporting KC-0.5+0.4+0.8
-0.1+0.1+0.1
-0.2+0.0+0.5
-0.0+0.0+0.1
Impact vs Orlando-0.2+0.5-0.1
-0.0+0.1-0.0
+0.1-0.1-0.1
Crew vs Red Bulls-0.3+0.4+0.1
-0.0+0.1-0.0
FC Dallas vs Sounders-0.1+0.1+0.1
-0.1+0.0+0.2
Dynamo vs Rapids+0.1-0.1-0.1
Whitecaps vs Timbers-0.1-0.0+0.2

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Union finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inSupportersChance will finish regular season at seedWooden
TPW-D-LplayoffsShield12345678910SpoonCount
74-95In100.0%100No53,886*
7322-5-4In99.61000No1,067*
7222-4-5In99.31000No2,049*
7121-6-4In98.81000No3,889*
7021-5-5In98.31000No7,176*
6920-7-4In97.21000No12,770*
6820-6-5In96.2991No22,343*
6720-5-6In94.29910No37,954*
6619-7-5In91.99910No63,659*
6519-6-6In88.49820No103,308*
6419-5-7In83.996400No166,203*
6318-7-6In78.09450No260,565*
6218-6-7In70.592800No397,013*
6117-8-6In61.4881200No595,364*
6017-7-7In51.0831610No871,285*
5917-6-8In39.97622200No1,252,198*
5816-8-7In28.86828300No1,762,906*
5716-7-8In18.759356000No2,425,021*
5616-6-9In10.7484110100No3,273,009*
5515-8-8100.0%5.138441620000No4,320,822*
5415-7-9100.02.02745235000No5,598,109*
5314-9-8100.00.61842319100No7,097,591*
5214-8-9100.00.1103536163000No8,825,085*
5114-7-10100.00.0525382461000No10,745,190*
5013-9-999.80.02163531132000No12,809,251*
4913-8-1099.30.0192736216100No14,969,312*
4813-7-1197.7No04183430122000No17,134,510*
4712-9-1093.7No01102735216100No19,213,485*
4612-8-1185.6No00418343012200No21,105,406*
4512-7-1272.5No0019273521610No22,719,162*
4411-9-1155.4No000417343112200.0%23,927,035*
4311-8-1237.4No00019273621500.024,680,688*
4211-7-1322.1No00041836311010.024,936,239*
4110-9-1211.3No00011030381930.024,635,794*
4010-8-135.0No000521402960.323,838,153*
399-10-122.0No0002133638111.122,571,971*
389-9-130.7No00172944193.420,894,089*
379-8-140.2No00032147288.118,924,319*
368-10-130.1No00114463915.816,750,270*
358-9-140.0No0019415026.014,480,848*
348-8-150.0No0005356037.812,231,273*
337-10-140.0No003286950.110,096,941*
327-9-150.0No001227761.58,127,820*
317-8-160.0No001168371.56,383,432*
306-10-15OutNo00128879.64,893,938*
296-9-16OutNo0089285.83,650,851*
286-8-17OutNo0059490.52,652,302*
275-10-16OutNo0049693.81,877,104*
265-9-17OutNo029896.11,290,193*
255-8-18OutNo019997.5861,879*
244-10-17OutNo019998.5557,346*
234-9-18OutNo19999.1351,226*
224-8-19OutNo010099.5212,994*
214-7-20OutNo010099.7124,966*
203-9-19OutNo010099.871,021*
193-8-20OutNo010099.939,229*
2-18OutNo100100.092,491*
Total:41.8%0.9%35689111214161610.1%425,004,000

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Union finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPW-D-LWin CupByeNYCFCRed BullsCrewToronto FCOrlandoDC UnitedImpactRevolutionFire
65-9512.5%Yes
6419-5-712.51000
6318-7-612.5Yes
6218-6-712.51000000
6117-8-612.410000000000
6017-7-712.4100000000000
5917-6-812.5100000000000
5816-8-712.5100000000000
5716-7-812.5100000000000
5616-6-912.599000000000
5515-8-812.498000000000
16-5-1012.498000000000
5415-7-912.395111111100
14-10-712.395111111100
5314-9-812.090111111110
15-6-1012.090111111110
5214-8-911.681222222211
15-5-1111.682222222211
5114-7-1010.869444444421
13-10-810.869444444421
5013-9-99.753666665542
14-6-119.854566655542
12-12-79.854566655542
4913-8-108.336777777753
12-11-88.336777777753
14-5-128.438777777753
4813-7-116.722888887763
12-10-96.621888887863
14-4-136.723888887763
4712-9-104.811788887753
13-6-124.911788887763
11-12-84.911788887763
4612-8-113.24666666653
11-11-93.24666666653
13-5-133.35667766653
4512-7-121.92445544432
11-10-101.91444544432
4411-9-111.00223332221
12-6-131.00233333321
4311-8-120.40111111111
4211-7-130.20011111000
4110-9-120.10000000000
4010-8-130.00000000000
3910-7-140.00000000000
389-9-130.0000000000
379-8-140.0000000000
369-7-150.0000000000
358-9-140.000000
346-14-11No0
2-33No
Total:2.8%14.42.02.12.12.12.12.02.01.50.9
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 3/21100.0*Lottery seed
Union 0 FC Dallas 2 +1.2
Revolution 0 Impact 0 -0.1
Red Bulls 2 DC United 0 +0.0
Earthquakes 2 Fire 1 -0.0
Rapids 0 NYCFC 0 -0.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 3/28100.0*Lottery seed
Fire vs Union+0.7+0.0-1.5
Revolution vs Earthquakes+0.1-0.0-0.1
DC United vs Galaxy+0.1-0.0-0.1
Real Salt Lake vs Toronto FC-0.0-0.0+0.1
Impact vs Orlando+0.0-0.1+0.0

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPW-D-L1234567891011121314151617181920
77-95100
7623-5-3991
7523-4-4100
7422-6-3991
7322-5-410000
7222-4-59910
7121-6-49910
7021-5-59820
6920-7-49720
6820-6-59631
6720-5-694510
6619-7-592710
6519-6-6889200
6419-5-784124000
6318-7-67816500
6218-6-770218000
6117-8-6612711000
6017-7-75132161100
5917-6-840362112000
5816-8-729402533000
5716-7-81940286600000
5616-6-9113829111001000
5515-8-853226181512000000
5415-7-92252025203500000
5314-9-81171230228901000
5214-8-90106292116141300000
5114-7-100522415241956010000
5013-9-902016728201212120000
4913-8-100109225152117460100
4813-7-11004017727191111120000
4712-9-1000109225142117451000
4612-8-110000401772718121130000
4512-7-12000109225132217820000
4411-9-11000040176281817820000
4311-8-12000010922513221872000
4211-7-1300000401771926187100
4110-9-1200001010211252817510
4010-8-13000005151729271330
399-10-1200000202822322491
389-9-130001003132933183
379-8-1400000162135288
368-10-1300000212323816
358-9-14000016244326
348-8-15000003164338
337-10-1400001103950
327-9-15000063362
317-8-16000032671
306-10-150011980
296-9-160011486
286-8-1700990
275-10-1600694
265-9-170496
255-8-180298
244-10-170199
234-9-180199
224-8-190199
214-7-200100
203-9-190100
193-8-200100
183-7-210100
172-9-200100
162-8-210100
152-7-220100
142-6-230100
12-13100
111-6-24298
2-10100
Total:122324353647456789910