Philadelphia Union Playoff Chances

Did not play, playoff odds down 0.009 to 54.2%
37 points   9-10-9

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 9/13100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Supporters Shield100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
Union 2 Red Bulls 2 -7.5
-0.9
No
-0.3
Dynamo 2 Crew 2 +1.7
+0.2
+0.1
New England 2 Impact 1 -1.3
-0.3
-0.1
Fire 1 Toronto FC 1 +0.7
+0.1
+0.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 9/20100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Supporters Shield100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
Union vs Dynamo+12.3-10.7-22.6
+1.1-1.1-2.0
No*-0.0+0.0
+0.5-0.4-0.9
Crew vs New England-3.6+2.5+5.0
-0.2+0.2+0.1
-0.1+0.1+0.1
Red Bulls vs Sounders-4.2+1.7+4.3
-0.5+0.2+0.5
-0.1+0.1+0.1
Toronto FC vs Chivas USA-2.6+3.0+4.7
-0.2+0.2+0.3
-0.1+0.1+0.2
Sporting KC vs New England+0.5-0.3-0.8
+0.1-0.0-0.1
Fire vs DC United-0.4+0.2+0.3
Impact vs Earthquakes+0.0*-0.0No

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Union finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inSupportersChance will finish regular season at seedWooden
TPW-D-LplayoffsShield12345678910SpoonCount
556-0-0InNo31591000No151,820,323
535-1-0100.0%No65039500No704,673,856
525-0-1100.0No128541600No985,887,507
514-2-0100.0No014543020No1,376,285,761
504-1-199.9No044148700No3,713,532,447
494-0-299.0No01225818100No2,417,422,801
3-3-099.5No0124581600No1,380,150,177
483-2-196.2No095234400No5,380,119,292
473-1-283.3No02334815100No6,718,192,367
2-4-087.9No0336491210No752,910,618
462-3-166.8No00174929400No3,777,296,250
3-0-361.7No00154633600No2,664,842,241
452-2-237.8No0533461610No6,826,555,101
1-5-041.3No0536441400No212,916,142
442-1-315.7No0115463440No5,246,794,346
1-4-118.5No0117473230No1,292,514,763
431-3-25.5No053449110No3,018,512,917
2-0-44.8No053448120No1,450,058,682
0-6-05.8No063449110No24,464,568
421-2-30.9No011753282No3,385,322,130
0-5-11.0No011855251No173,166,499
411-1-40.1No00641477No1,826,971,057
0-4-20.1No00645445No491,724,172
400-3-30.0No001255816No717,492,403
1-0-50.0No01225819No380,704,046
390-2-40.0No00955360No568,472,868
380-1-5OutNo02386000.0%232,440,000
370-0-6OutNo0178300.045,744,672
Total:54.2%No028202321167100.0%55,916,988,006

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Union finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPW-D-LWin CupByeDC UnitedSporting KCNew EnglandRed BullsCrewToronto FCDynamoFireImpact
556-0-012.5%10000000000
535-1-012.39500030100
525-0-111.884011923000
514-2-011.168023163710
504-1-110.04604624910100
494-0-28.5230610291712100
3-3-08.72506933111410
483-2-17.09061334171420
473-1-25.020513292012200
2-4-05.43061235151520
462-3-13.50041026141020
3-0-33.2003102017820
452-2-21.80025159510
1-5-01.90025208510
442-1-30.7001265200
1-4-10.8001294200
431-3-20.200131000
2-0-40.200122000
0-6-00.200031000
421-2-30.000000000
0-5-10.000010000
411-1-40.000000000
0-4-20.000000000
400-3-30.000000000
1-0-50.000000
390-2-40.00000
37-38No
Total:4.0%10.50.12.86.317.09.66.60.90.20.0
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 9/13100.0*Lottery seed
Union 2 Red Bulls 2 +0.6
New England 2 Impact 1 +0.1
Dynamo 2 Crew 2 -0.1
Fire 1 Toronto FC 1 -0.0
FC Dallas 2 Whitecaps 1 -0.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Real Salt Lake vs Rapids-0.0-0.0+0.1
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 9/20100.0*Lottery seed
Union vs Dynamo-0.8+0.7+1.5
Red Bulls vs Sounders+0.2-0.1-0.2
Toronto FC vs Chivas USA+0.1-0.1-0.2
Crew vs New England+0.1-0.1-0.1
Sporting KC vs New England-0.0-0.0+0.1

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPW-D-L12345678910111213141516171819
556-0-03105937000
535-1-0605033622000
525-0-11028253610000
514-2-0014153723200
504-1-1040416426000
494-0-201022355162100
3-3-001024355142000
483-2-10091522774000
473-1-20020333315151000
2-4-0003036311811100
462-3-1000172327276000
3-0-3000152423317000
452-2-205112239203000
1-5-005102637193000
442-1-3013123438111000
1-4-1013153237121000
431-3-20051742297100
2-0-40041842287100
0-6-00051540318100
421-2-30015284121400
0-5-10015274221400
411-1-4000111343814200
0-4-200011035381420
400-3-300002174131810
1-0-50002174131810
390-2-4000526422330
380-1-50011036411100
370-0-600322522300
Total:00208119131116148521000