Philadelphia Union Playoff Chances

Season start, playoff odds unchanged at 60%
0 points   0-0-0

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 3/6100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Supporters Shield100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
Crew vs Union-5.0+0.6+10.8
-0.6+0.0+1.4
-1.3-0.2+3.2
+1.2-0.3-2.4
-0.4+0.0+0.8
FC Dallas vs Union-4.3+0.1+9.9
-0.5-0.0+1.3
-1.3-0.1+3.2
+1.2-0.3-2.5
-0.3-0.0+0.7
Orlando vs Real Salt Lake-0.7+0.5+1.0
-0.1+0.1+0.1
*-0.0+0.1-0.1
-0.0+0.0+0.1
Timbers vs Crew+0.5*-0.0-1.1
+0.1*-0.0-0.1
-0.0+0.1-0.0
+0.0-0.0-0.1
Whitecaps vs Impact+0.5*-0.0-1.1
+0.1*-0.0-0.1
-0.0+0.1-0.0
+0.0+0.0-0.1
Galaxy vs DC United+0.5*-0.0-1.1
+0.1*+0.0-0.1
-0.0+0.1-0.0
+0.0+0.0-0.1
Dynamo vs Revolution+0.5*-0.0-1.1
+0.1*+0.0-0.1
-0.0+0.1-0.1
+0.0+0.0-0.1
Orlando vs Fire-0.2+0.5-0.1
-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.0+0.1-0.1
Fire vs NYCFC-0.2+0.5-0.1
-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.0+0.1-0.1
Impact vs Red Bulls-0.2+0.5-0.1
-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.0+0.1-0.1
Revolution vs DC United-0.2+0.5-0.1
-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.0+0.1-0.0
Red Bulls vs Toronto FC-0.2+0.4-0.1
-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.0+0.1-0.1
Earthquakes vs Rapids-0.0+0.1-0.1
Sounders vs Sporting KC-0.0+0.1-0.1
Real Salt Lake vs Sounders-0.0+0.1-0.1
Dynamo vs FC Dallas-0.0+0.1-0.1
Sporting KC vs Whitecaps-0.0+0.1-0.1
Rapids vs Galaxy-0.0+0.1-0.1
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 3/13100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Supporters Shield100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
Red Bulls vs Dynamo-0.7+0.5+1.0
-0.1+0.1+0.1
-0.0+0.1-0.1
-0.0+0.0+0.1
FC Dallas vs Impact+0.5*-0.0-1.1
+0.1*+0.0-0.1
-0.0+0.1-0.0
+0.0-0.0-0.1
Fire vs Crew-0.2+0.5-0.1
-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.0+0.1-0.0
NYCFC vs Toronto FC-0.2+0.4-0.1
-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.0+0.1-0.1
NYCFC vs Orlando-0.2+0.4-0.1
-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.0+0.1-0.0
Earthquakes vs Timbers-0.0+0.1-0.1
Timbers vs Real Salt Lake-0.0+0.1-0.1
Galaxy vs Earthquakes-0.0+0.1-0.1
Sounders vs Whitecaps-0.0+0.1-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Union finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inSupportersChance will finish regular season at seedWooden
TPW-D-LplayoffsShield12345678910SpoonCount
74-102In100.0%100No30,457*
7322-7-5In99.81000No8,679*
7222-6-6In99.71000No14,495*
7121-8-5In99.61000No23,662*
7021-7-6In99.41000No38,076*
6921-6-7In99.01000No59,338*
6820-8-6In98.49910No91,023*
6720-7-7In97.59910No137,779*
6620-6-8In95.99910No200,228*
6519-8-7In93.79820No290,952*
6419-7-8In90.596400No411,294*
6318-9-7In85.994600No571,990*
6218-8-8In79.991800No779,475*
6118-7-9In72.1881200No1,041,693*
6017-9-8In62.38217100No1,367,753*
5917-8-9In51.07622200No1,763,127*
5817-7-10In38.867294000No2,224,065*
5716-9-9In26.958356000No2,756,771*
5616-8-10In16.4474111100No3,354,016*
5515-10-9100.0%8.53644173000No4,003,261*
5415-9-10100.03.62544256100No4,695,472*
5315-8-11100.01.1164032112000No5,397,890*
5214-10-10100.00.393237184000No6,094,190*
5114-9-1199.90.0523372691000No6,747,468*
5014-8-1299.60.02143233164000No7,335,576*
4913-10-1198.50.0172335248100No7,818,390*
4813-9-1295.6No03143132164000No8,184,297*
4713-8-1389.0No0172234259200No8,395,364*
4612-10-1277.4No00313293218500No8,458,920*
4512-9-1361.0No00162134271020No8,344,118*
4412-8-1442.6No000212283419500.0%8,079,733*
4311-10-1325.9No00152034281010.07,679,126*
4211-9-1413.6No00021129351830.07,149,597*
4110-11-136.1No001521382870.16,527,590*
4010-10-142.4No0002133437130.65,837,043*
3910-9-150.8No00172743222.45,111,582*
389-11-140.2No00031945326.44,391,234*
379-10-150.1No000112424413.73,688,228*
369-9-160.0No0017375524.13,033,959*
358-11-150.0No0004306636.52,443,541*
348-10-160.0No002237549.51,925,069*
338-9-17OutNo01178261.81,482,934*
327-11-16OutNo00128872.31,118,192*
317-10-17OutNo0089280.6821,331*
307-9-18OutNo0059587.0589,891*
296-11-17OutNo039791.6413,859*
286-10-18OutNo029894.7282,096*
276-9-19OutNo019996.6189,130*
265-11-18OutNo019998.0122,880*
255-10-19OutNo010098.977,152*
245-9-20OutNo010099.447,753*
234-11-19OutNo010099.628,116*
224-10-20OutNo010099.816,620*
214-9-21OutNo010099.99,261*
204-8-22OutNo010099.94,978*
0-19OutNo100100.024,006*
Total:60.0%5.0%101010101010101010105.0%151,734,720

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Union finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPW-D-LWin CupByeDC UnitedNYCFCCrewToronto FCImpactRed BullsOrlandoRevolutionFire
65-10212.5%Yes
6419-7-812.41000
6318-9-712.5100000
6218-8-812.5100000000
6118-7-912.5100000000000
6017-9-812.5100000000000
5917-8-912.5100000000000
5817-7-1012.5100000000000
5716-9-912.5100000000000
17-6-1112.5100000000000
5616-8-1012.499000000000
15-11-812.499000000000
5515-10-912.397000000000
16-7-1112.497000000000
5415-9-1012.294111111111
16-6-1212.294111111111
14-12-812.294111111111
5315-8-1111.988111111111
14-11-911.988111111111
5214-10-1011.477222222222
15-7-1211.579222222222
13-13-811.478222222222
5114-9-1110.664444444444
15-6-1310.765444444444
13-12-910.663444444444
5014-8-129.448555555555
13-11-109.346555555565
15-5-149.448555555555
4913-10-117.830777777777
14-7-137.932767777677
12-13-97.730777777777
4813-9-126.017777777777
12-12-105.816777777777
14-6-146.118777777777
4713-8-134.38666666666
12-11-114.18666666666
4612-10-122.63555555555
13-7-142.63555555555
4512-9-131.41333333333
4412-8-140.70222222222
4311-10-130.30111111111
4211-9-140.10000000000
4111-8-150.00000000000
4010-10-140.00000000000
3910-9-150.0000000000
3810-8-160.0000000000
379-10-150.0000000000
3610-6-18No000000
359-8-17No0
0-34No
Total:5.0%30.02.22.22.22.22.22.22.22.22.2
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 3/6100.0*Lottery seed
Crew vs Union+0.7-0.1-1.6
FC Dallas vs Union+0.7-0.0-1.5
Orlando vs Real Salt Lake+0.1-0.1-0.1
Timbers vs Crew-0.0-0.0+0.1
Galaxy vs DC United-0.0-0.0+0.1
Whitecaps vs Impact-0.0-0.0+0.1
Dynamo vs Revolution-0.0-0.0+0.1
Fire vs NYCFC+0.0-0.1+0.0
Impact vs Red Bulls+0.0-0.1+0.0
Revolution vs DC United+0.0-0.1+0.0
Orlando vs Fire+0.0-0.1+0.0
Red Bulls vs Toronto FC+0.0-0.1+0.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 3/13100.0*Lottery seed
Red Bulls vs Dynamo+0.1-0.1-0.1
FC Dallas vs Impact-0.0-0.0+0.1
NYCFC vs Toronto FC+0.0-0.1+0.0
Fire vs Crew+0.0-0.1+0.0
NYCFC vs Orlando+0.0-0.1+0.0

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPW-D-L1234567891011121314151617181920
78-102100
7724-5-51000
7623-7-4100
7523-6-51000
7423-5-61000
7322-7-510000
7222-6-610000
7121-8-510000
7021-7-69900
6921-6-79910
6820-8-698110
6720-7-797210
6620-6-896310
6519-8-7944200
6419-7-89164000
6318-9-78686000
6218-8-880118000
6118-7-9721612000
6017-9-862201601000
5917-8-951252212000
5817-7-10392927240000
5716-9-92731324600000
5616-8-1016313471101000
5515-10-9927321216130000
5415-9-104222618232601000
5315-8-11115172326510020000
5214-10-10098242511171400000
5114-9-110532018182338010000
5014-8-120211392324915140000
4913-10-110107320181721380100
4813-9-1200311492222915140000
4713-8-1300107220161821492000
4612-10-120000301372221111651000
4512-9-130001062191420221340000
4412-8-140000201162320221130000
4311-10-13000105118132523113000
4211-9-1400002011518282210200
4110-11-1300010529232921820
4010-10-14000002031326301961
3910-9-150001015173129142
389-11-1400000292435256
379-10-15000000315333514
369-9-160000018264124
358-11-15000003174237
348-10-160001103949
338-9-17000063262
327-11-160032572
317-10-170011881
307-9-180011287
296-11-1700892
286-10-180595
276-9-190397
265-11-180298
255-10-190199
245-9-20199
234-11-190100
224-10-200100
214-9-210100
204-8-220100
193-10-210100
183-9-220100
173-8-230100
0-16100
Total:55555555555555555555