Philadelphia Union Playoff Chances

Season start, playoff odds unchanged at 54.6%
0 points   0-0-0

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 3/3100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Supporters Shield100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
Whitecaps vs Union-4.5+0.0+10.4
-0.5-0.0+1.2
-1.2-0.1+2.9
+1.1-0.2-2.3
-0.3-0.0+0.8
DC United vs Sporting KC-0.6+0.4+0.9
-0.1+0.1+0.1
*-0.0+0.1-0.1
-0.0+0.0+0.1
Rapids vs Revolution+0.4*+0.0-1.1
+0.1*+0.0-0.1
-0.0+0.1-0.0
+0.0+0.0-0.1
Earthquakes vs Impact+0.4*+0.0-1.0
+0.1*+0.0-0.1
-0.0+0.1-0.0
+0.0+0.0-0.1
Real Salt Lake vs Toronto FC+0.4*-0.0-1.0
+0.1*+0.0-0.1
-0.0+0.1-0.0
+0.0-0.0-0.1
Crew vs Fire-0.2+0.4-0.1
-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.0+0.1-0.0
Atlanta vs Red Bulls-0.2+0.4-0.1
-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.0+0.1-0.0
Orlando vs NYCFC-0.2+0.4-0.2
-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.0+0.1-0.0
Timbers vs Minnesota-0.0+0.1-0.1
Galaxy vs FC Dallas-0.0+0.1-0.1
Dynamo vs Sounders-0.0+0.1-0.1
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 3/11100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Supporters Shield100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
Union vs Toronto FC+6.7-4.4-10.0
+0.8-0.5-1.1
+1.4-1.1-2.0
-1.6+0.9+2.5
+0.5-0.3-0.8
Red Bulls vs Rapids-0.6+0.4+0.9
-0.1+0.1+0.1
*-0.0+0.1-0.1
-0.0+0.0+0.1
Fire vs Real Salt Lake-0.6+0.4+0.9
-0.1+0.0+0.1
-0.0+0.1-0.1
-0.0+0.0+0.1
Impact vs Sounders-0.6+0.4+0.9
-0.1+0.1+0.1
*-0.0+0.1-0.1
-0.0+0.0+0.1
Dynamo vs Crew+0.4*-0.0-1.0
+0.0*+0.0-0.1
-0.0+0.1-0.0
+0.0+0.0-0.1
Minnesota vs Atlanta+0.4*-0.0-1.0
+0.1*+0.0-0.1
-0.0+0.1-0.0
+0.0+0.0-0.1
NYCFC vs DC United-0.2+0.4-0.1
-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.0+0.1-0.0
Revolution vs Orlando-0.2+0.4-0.1
-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.0+0.1-0.0
Galaxy vs Timbers-0.0+0.1-0.1
Earthquakes vs Whitecaps-0.0+0.1-0.0
Sporting KC vs FC Dallas-0.0+0.1-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Union finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inSupportersChance will finish regular season at seedWooden
TPW-D-LplayoffsShield1234567891011SpoonCount
75-102In100.0%100No24,208*
7423-5-6In99.81000No5,230*
7322-7-5In99.81000No9,010*
7222-6-6In99.81000No14,729*
7121-8-5In99.61000No24,357*
7021-7-6In99.41000No38,618*
6921-6-7In98.71000No60,826*
6820-8-6In98.19910No93,445*
6720-7-7In97.09910No139,557*
6620-6-8In95.39820No205,559*
6519-8-7In92.89730No297,059*
6419-7-8In89.39540No421,607*
6318-9-7In84.393700No587,146*
6218-8-8In77.5901000No798,111*
6118-7-9In69.08614100No1,068,774*
6017-9-8In58.68019100No1,404,464*
5917-8-9In46.87225300No1,804,636*
5817-7-10In34.463315000No2,280,241*
5716-9-9In22.853379100No2,830,276*
5616-8-10100.0%13.14242142000No3,440,130*
5515-10-9100.06.33144204000No4,107,887*
5415-9-10100.02.421412881000No4,815,836*
5315-8-11100.00.71335341430000No5,534,484*
5214-10-1099.90.1727362271000No6,251,202*
5114-9-1199.60.03183329133000No6,920,354*
5014-8-1298.60.011026332171000No7,519,665*
4913-10-1195.80.0041731291440000No8,017,408*
4813-9-1289.4No02924322392000No8,388,177*
4713-8-1377.9No004152930175100No8,615,353*
4612-10-1261.1No001721312511200No8,670,097*
4512-9-1342.0No000312273120610No8,562,075*
4412-8-1424.7No00161831281330No8,289,152*
4311-10-1312.2No000210253322710.0%7,869,613*
4211-9-145.1No000141632311420.07,332,122*
4110-11-131.8No0002925362350.16,692,751*
4010-10-140.5No00004173532100.35,984,381*
3910-9-150.1No0002103040181.55,242,539*
389-11-140.0No00152344284.74,499,453*
379-10-150.0No000215433910.83,780,561*
369-9-160.0No00110395120.23,114,392*
358-11-150.0No0005336232.22,506,763*
348-10-16OutNo003267145.31,975,501*
338-9-17OutNo001197957.91,520,253*
327-11-16OutNo01148669.21,144,818*
317-10-17OutNo00099078.4841,789*
307-9-18OutNo0069485.3603,768*
296-11-17OutNo049690.4424,802*
286-10-18OutNo029893.9289,820*
276-9-19OutNo019996.3193,086*
265-11-18OutNo019997.7125,672*
255-10-19OutNo0010098.779,677*
245-9-20OutNo010099.248,780*
234-11-19OutNo010099.629,047*
224-10-20OutNo010099.717,126*
214-9-21OutNo010099.99,438*
204-8-22OutNo010099.95,142*
0-19OutNo100100.022,949*
Total:54.6%4.5%999999999994.5%155,593,916

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Union finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPW-D-LWin CupByeAtlantaOrlandoCrewRed BullsDC UnitedFireRevolutionToronto FCNYCFCImpact
64-10212.5%Yes
6318-9-712.51000000
6218-8-812.510000000000
6118-7-912.41000000000000
6017-9-812.51000000000000
5917-8-912.51000000000000
5817-7-1012.51000000000000
16-10-812.51000000000000
5716-9-912.5990000000000
17-6-1112.5990000000000
5616-8-1012.4980000000000
15-11-812.4980000000000
5515-10-912.3950000000000
16-7-1112.3960000000000
5415-9-1012.1901111111111
16-6-1212.1911111111111
14-12-812.1901111111111
5315-8-1111.7832222222222
14-11-911.6812222222222
16-5-1311.7832222222222
5214-10-1010.9693333333333
15-7-1211.0713333333333
13-13-810.9693333333333
5114-9-119.8544444444444
15-6-1310.0564444444444
13-12-99.7534444444444
5014-8-128.4385555555555
13-11-108.2366655566666
15-5-148.4385555555555
4913-10-116.5226666666666
14-7-136.8246666666666
12-13-96.5216666666666
4813-9-124.7116666666666
12-12-104.5105555556555
14-6-144.8126666666666
4713-8-133.154444444444
12-11-112.844444444444
14-5-153.044444444444
4612-10-121.613333333333
13-7-141.613333333333
4512-9-130.802222222222
4412-8-140.301111111111
4311-10-130.100000000000
4211-9-140.000000000000
4111-8-150.000000000000
4010-10-140.000000000000
3910-9-150.00000000000
389-11-140.00000000000
3710-7-17No0000
0-36No
Total:4.5%27.31.81.81.81.81.81.81.81.81.81.8
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 3/3100.0*Lottery seed
Whitecaps vs Union+0.7-0.0-1.7
DC United vs Sporting KC+0.1-0.1-0.1
Rapids vs Revolution-0.0-0.0+0.1
Real Salt Lake vs Toronto FC-0.0-0.0+0.1
Earthquakes vs Impact-0.0-0.0+0.1
Orlando vs NYCFC+0.0-0.1+0.0
Atlanta vs Red Bulls+0.0-0.1+0.0
Crew vs Fire+0.0-0.1+0.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 3/11100.0*Lottery seed
Union vs Toronto FC-1.0+0.7+1.5
Fire vs Real Salt Lake+0.1-0.1-0.1
Dynamo vs Crew-0.0-0.0+0.1
Red Bulls vs Rapids+0.1-0.0-0.1
Minnesota vs Atlanta-0.0-0.0+0.1
Impact vs Sounders+0.1-0.1-0.1
Revolution vs Orlando+0.0-0.1+0.0
NYCFC vs DC United+0.0-0.1+0.0

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPW-D-L12345678910111213141516171819202122
76-102100
7523-6-51000
7423-5-610000
7322-7-510000
7222-6-610000
7121-8-510000
7021-7-69900
6921-6-79910
6820-8-698110
6720-7-797210
6620-6-895320
6519-8-7934300
6419-7-8896400
6318-9-78497000
6218-8-87812100000
6118-7-969171401000
6017-9-859211901000
5917-8-947262413000
5817-7-10342929250000
5716-9-92331335801000
5616-8-101329339130200000
5515-10-96252914191400000
5415-9-1021921202438010000
5315-8-111121223268140300000
5214-10-100752222142027010000
5114-9-1103116132023613030000
5014-8-1201095212013192701000
4913-10-110004116112022713140000
4813-9-12002094201715203920000
4713-8-13000411482120916610000
4612-10-1200010721913182113410000
4512-9-130000301252118221341000
4412-8-140001061171022231451000
4311-10-1300000201041424251551000
4211-9-14000010415152626166100
4110-11-130000201617272615510
4010-10-140000000271928261340
3910-9-1500000029223124102
389-11-140000013122733205
379-10-15000001518343111
369-9-1600000210283920
358-11-15000015204232
348-10-16002134045
338-9-17000173458
327-11-1600042769
317-10-170022078
307-9-180011485
296-11-1700990
286-10-1800694
276-9-190496
265-11-180298
255-10-190199
245-9-200199
234-11-190100
224-10-200100
214-9-210100
204-8-220100
193-10-210100
0-18100
Total:5555555555555555555555