Philadelphia Union Playoff Chances

Did not play, playoff odds down 0.02 to 52.5%
7 points   1-4-1

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 4/12100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Supporters Shield100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
Union 2 Real Salt Lake 2 -4.1
-0.5
-0.7
+0.5
-0.3
Toronto FC 0 Rapids 1 +0.8
+0.1
+0.1
Impact 1 Fire 1 +0.5
+0.1
-0.1
DC United 1 Red Bulls 0 -0.2
New England 2 Dynamo 0 +0.1
+0.1
Earthquakes 1 Crew 1 -0.1
FC Dallas 2 Sounders 3 +0.2
Timbers 1 Chivas USA 1 -0.1
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Red Bulls vs Union-6.1+0.1+11.7
-0.7-0.0+1.4
-0.7-0.2+1.5
+1.0-0.2-1.6
-0.4+0.0+0.7
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 4/19100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Supporters Shield100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
Union vs Dynamo+7.2-4.9-11.4
+0.8-0.6-1.3
+0.8-0.6-1.0
-1.1+0.7+1.9
+0.4-0.3-0.7
FC Dallas vs Toronto FC+0.4-0.1-1.1
+0.1-0.0-0.2
-0.1+0.1+0.0
+0.0-0.0-0.1
Crew vs DC United+0.2+0.2-0.9
*-0.0+0.1-0.1
-0.1+0.1+0.1
-0.0+0.0+0.1
Fire vs New England-0.2+0.7-0.3
-0.0+0.1-0.0
Sporting KC vs Impact-0.3+0.6+0.0
-0.1+0.1+0.1
-0.0+0.0+0.1
-0.1+0.0+0.2
Real Salt Lake vs Timbers-0.1+0.1+0.1
-0.1+0.0+0.3
Rapids vs Earthquakes-0.1+0.1+0.1
-0.1+0.0+0.2
Whitecaps vs Galaxy+0.0+0.0-0.1
Chivas USA vs Sounders+0.0+0.0-0.1
+0.1-0.1-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Union finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inSupportersChance will finish regular season at seedWooden
TPW-D-LplayoffsShield12345678910SpoonCount
75-91In100.0%100No65,554*
7421-4-3In99.81000No2,076*
7321-3-4In99.71000No4,147*
7220-5-3In99.41000No7,971*
7120-4-4In99.21000No14,944*
7019-6-3In98.61000No27,473*
6919-5-4In97.7991No48,805*
6819-4-5In96.4991No84,116*
6718-6-4In94.79910No141,707*
6618-5-5In91.79820No230,848*
6517-7-4In88.09640No369,121*
6417-6-5In82.79550No575,497*
6317-5-6In76.092800No874,299*
6216-7-5In67.5891100No1,297,154*
6116-6-6In57.6851510No1,874,865*
6016-5-7In46.5792010No2,650,637*
5915-7-6In35.17226200No3,661,034*
5815-6-7In24.36432400No4,933,994*
5714-8-6In15.15538700No6,507,219*
5614-7-7100.0%8.2454411100No8,376,267*
5514-6-8100.03.7344717200No10,537,743*
5413-8-7100.01.42547244000No12,961,865*
5313-7-8100.00.41643328100No15,577,084*
5213-6-999.90.193638142000No18,314,576*
5112-8-899.60.052641235000No21,027,611*
5012-7-998.70.0217383110100No23,594,395*
4912-6-1096.30.0193137183000No25,889,292*
4811-8-990.8No042138288100No27,756,816*
4711-7-1080.5No01123235163000No29,080,860*
4610-9-965.2No0052237268100No29,768,052*
4510-8-1046.6No00213323416300No29,772,865*
4410-7-1128.8No00162337268100.0%29,084,170*
439-9-1015.2No00213323415300.027,739,124*
429-8-116.7No0016233725710.025,847,088*
419-7-122.5No0021434341320.023,503,427*
408-9-110.8No001726392340.120,848,992*
398-8-120.2No000317383380.618,049,019*
388-7-130.0No001103341152.115,227,834*
377-9-120.0No00052545245.412,531,335*
367-8-130.0No00217453511.210,048,820*
357-7-140.0No00111424719.67,837,347*
346-9-130.0No0006365830.35,955,555*
336-8-14OutNo003296842.14,402,921*
326-7-15OutNo002227653.93,164,111*
315-9-14OutNo01168364.82,204,564*
305-8-15OutNo00118974.21,494,009*
295-7-16OutNo0079281.7979,646*
284-9-15OutNo059587.5622,551*
274-8-16OutNo039791.7383,279*
264-7-17OutNo029894.7227,320*
253-9-16OutNo019996.7130,629*
243-8-17OutNo19998.171,479*
233-7-18OutNo010098.838,027*
222-9-17OutNo010099.319,383*
212-8-18OutNo010099.79,483*
7-20OutNo100100.071,258*
Total:52.5%2.1%710111212121110862.9%486,520,258

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Union finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPW-D-LWin CupByeCrewToronto FCSporting KCDynamoDC UnitedFireNew EnglandRed BullsImpact
64-9112.5%Yes
6317-5-612.51000
6216-7-512.6100000000
6116-6-612.5100000000000
6016-5-712.5100000000000
5915-7-612.5100000000000
5815-6-712.5100000000000
5714-8-612.5100000000000
5614-7-712.599000000000
15-4-912.599000000000
5514-6-812.498000000000
13-9-612.498000000000
5413-8-712.396011111100
14-5-912.396011111000
5313-7-812.191111111110
12-10-612.191111111110
5213-6-911.883222222211
12-9-711.884122222211
5112-8-811.272344443321
13-5-1011.272344443321
11-11-611.374244443321
5012-7-910.357466665532
11-10-710.458466665532
13-4-1110.458456565432
4912-6-109.141578787643
11-9-89.140578887643
10-12-69.343577776643
4811-8-97.525699998754
12-5-117.626699998754
10-11-77.726699998754
4711-7-105.813699998754
10-10-85.913699998854
12-4-126.014699998854
4610-9-94.15588887754
11-6-114.26588887754
4510-8-102.62466665543
11-5-122.72466665543
4410-7-111.51244443322
9-10-91.51244443322
439-9-100.70122222211
429-8-110.30111111110
419-7-120.10000000000
408-9-110.00000000000
398-8-120.00000000000
388-7-130.0000000000
378-6-140.0000000000
367-8-130.0000000000
357-7-14No00000000
346-9-13No00
7-33No
Total:5.1%28.02.33.23.33.33.32.92.71.91.5
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 4/12100.0*Lottery seed
Union 2 Real Salt Lake 2 +0.5
Toronto FC 0 Rapids 1 -0.1
Earthquakes 1 Crew 1 -0.0
DC United 1 Red Bulls 0 +0.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Red Bulls vs Union+0.7+0.0-1.4
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 4/19100.0*Lottery seed
Union vs Dynamo-0.9+0.6+1.3
FC Dallas vs Toronto FC-0.0-0.0+0.1
Sporting KC vs Impact+0.0-0.1-0.0
Fire vs New England+0.0-0.1+0.0

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPW-D-L12345678910111213141516171819
76-91100
7521-5-21000
7421-4-310000
7321-3-410000
7220-5-39900
7120-4-49910
7019-6-39910
6919-5-49821
6819-4-59631
6718-6-4954100
6618-5-5926200
6517-7-4888400
6417-6-58312500
6317-5-676168000
6216-7-5672111000
6116-6-65827140100
6016-5-74732191100
5915-7-635372322000
5815-6-7244027540000
5714-8-6154029970000
5614-7-783628151011000
5514-6-8431242315220000
5413-8-71231729195400000
5313-7-801610332111801000
5213-6-909431191913220000
5112-8-805125132717550000
5012-7-9020177311913911000
4912-6-10010922815221533000
4811-8-900412092918981000
4711-7-1000101232916191451000
4610-9-9000051221027191230000
4510-8-1000020124281921102000
4410-7-11000106122132622920000
439-9-1000002013621292071000
429-8-110001062122629176100
419-7-12000020517292814400
408-9-1100010182131251020
398-8-1200000031226322061
388-7-13000015173230132
377-9-1200000292535235
367-8-1300001417353311
357-7-140000210294020
346-9-1300015214330
336-8-140002144242
326-7-1500183754
315-9-1400053065
305-8-150022374
295-7-160011782
284-9-15001288
274-8-1600892
264-7-170595
253-9-160397
243-8-170298
233-7-18199
222-9-170199
212-8-180100
202-7-190100
192-6-200100
7-18100
Total:2537484858567666543