Philadelphia Union Playoff Chances

Did not play, playoff odds down 0.2 to 89.4%
13 points   4-1-3

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 5/8100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Supporters Shield100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
Galaxy 4 Revolution 2 +0.2
-0.4
+0.0
DC United 0 NYCFC 2 -0.1
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Union vs Galaxy+3.6-1.4-4.3
+0.8-0.3-0.9
+2.9-1.4-3.2
-0.3+0.1+0.4
+0.4-0.2-0.4
Impact vs Union-2.5+0.4+5.0
-0.6+0.1+1.2
-1.8-0.3+4.2
+0.2-0.1-0.3
-0.3+0.0+0.6
Crew vs Rapids-0.6+0.2+0.5
-0.1+0.0+0.1
+0.5+0.2-0.8
Whitecaps vs Fire+0.3+0.0-0.8
+0.1+0.0-0.1
+0.0+0.0-0.1
Revolution vs Fire-0.0+0.3-0.3
+0.0+0.0-0.1
DC United vs Red Bulls-0.1+0.3-0.1
-0.0+0.1-0.0
Toronto FC vs Whitecaps-0.1+0.1+0.2
-0.1+0.0+0.1
-0.2+0.2+0.3
-0.0+0.0+0.1
Rapids vs Sporting KC-0.5+0.4+0.7
Dynamo vs Real Salt Lake+0.2+0.0-0.4
FC Dallas vs Timbers-0.1+0.1+0.0
Earthquakes vs Dynamo-0.1+0.1+0.1
FC Dallas vs Sounders-0.0+0.1-0.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 5/15100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Supporters Shield100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
Union vs DC United+3.4-2.1-6.1
+0.7-0.5-1.2
+1.9-1.7-2.8
-0.3+0.1+0.5
+0.4-0.2-0.6
Fire vs Dynamo-0.5+0.3+0.6
-0.1+0.1+0.1
Timbers vs NYCFC+0.3+0.0-0.6
+0.1+0.0-0.2
+0.0+0.0-0.1
+0.0+0.0-0.1
Sporting KC vs Orlando+0.3*-0.0-0.6
+0.1+0.0-0.2
+0.0+0.0-0.1
Revolution vs FC Dallas-0.4+0.2+0.5
+0.1+0.0-0.1
+0.0-0.0-0.1
Toronto FC vs Crew+0.2+0.0-0.6
*+0.0+0.0-0.1
-0.2+0.2+0.4
Toronto FC vs NYCFC+0.2+0.0-0.5
+0.0+0.0-0.1
-0.2+0.2+0.3
Orlando vs Impact-0.3+0.2+0.3
-0.0+0.1+0.0
+0.1+0.0-0.2
NYCFC vs Red Bulls-0.1+0.3-0.2
-0.1+0.1+0.0
Red Bulls vs Fire-0.1+0.3-0.1
-0.0+0.1-0.1
Sounders vs Rapids+0.4+0.2-0.8
Sporting KC vs Real Salt Lake+0.1+0.1-0.4

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Union finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inSupportersChance will finish regular season at seedWooden
TPW-D-LplayoffsShield12345678910SpoonCount
79-91In100.0%100No726,360*
7821-2-3In99.91000No20,411*
7720-4-2In99.91000No42,253*
7620-3-3In99.91000No85,767*
7519-5-2In99.81000No167,000*
7419-4-3In99.71000No314,577*
7319-3-4In99.51000No574,429*
7218-5-3In99.110000No1,013,593*
7118-4-4In98.610000No1,742,020*
7017-6-3In97.710000No2,905,280*
6917-5-4In96.41000No4,712,708*
6817-4-5In94.59910No7,445,180*
6716-6-4In91.89910No11,419,302*
6616-5-5In88.19910No17,076,691*
6515-7-4In83.19820No24,869,740*
6415-6-5In76.896400No35,299,153*
6315-5-6In69.095500No48,840,669*
6214-7-5In59.892800No65,916,611*
6114-6-6In49.6891100No86,772,783*
6014-5-7In38.9841500No111,439,326*
5913-7-6In28.47821100No139,630,922*
5813-6-7In19.07127200No170,781,299*
5713-5-8In11.46334300No203,906,034*
5612-7-7In5.954406000No237,598,880*
5512-6-8In2.6444610100No270,266,750*
5411-8-7100.0%0.93349161000No300,110,833*
5311-7-8100.00.22449233000No325,290,675*
5211-6-9100.00.01646327000No344,195,695*
5110-8-8100.00.093839121000No355,485,083*
5010-7-9100.00.052942214000No358,284,603*
4910-6-10100.00.0219413081000No352,397,437*
489-8-999.8No1103437163000No338,087,215*
479-7-1099.2No052439257100No316,501,420*
469-6-1197.4No02143434142000No288,840,057*
458-8-1092.6No0062537247100No256,995,602*
448-7-1183.0No00214333314300No222,899,732*
437-9-1067.8No00172437247100.0%188,286,207*
427-8-1149.1No000214333315300.0154,941,701*
417-7-1230.8No0016243725710.0124,098,535*
406-9-1116.5No00021433341420.196,664,967*
396-8-127.4No001725392440.673,235,025*
386-7-132.8No0003163734102.453,902,651*
375-9-120.9No00183142186.638,532,313*
365-8-130.2No000422462814.226,704,663*
355-7-140.1No00114444025.317,949,282*
344-9-130.0No0018395238.611,674,125*
334-8-140.0No0004326452.47,346,200*
324-7-150.0No002247465.14,464,226*
314-6-160.0No001178275.72,617,507*
303-8-15OutNo00128883.81,478,217*
293-7-16OutNo0079289.7800,761*
283-6-17OutNo059593.7416,442*
272-8-16OutNo039796.4206,806*
262-7-17OutNo029897.997,780*
252-6-18OutNo19998.944,122*
241-8-17OutNo010099.318,829*
231-7-18OutNo010099.77,478*
221-6-19OutNo010099.82,852*
13-21OutNo100Yes710,981*
Total:89.4%6.5%222117139753210.5%5,706,857,760

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Union finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPW-D-LWin CupByeToronto FCImpactOrlandoNYCFCCrewFireDC UnitedRed BullsRevolution
65-9112.5%Yes
6415-6-512.51000
6315-5-612.5100000000
6214-7-512.51000000000
6114-6-612.5100000000000
6014-5-712.5100000000000
5913-7-612.5100000000000
5813-6-712.5100000000000
12-9-512.5100000000000
5713-5-812.5100000000000
12-8-612.5100000000000
5612-7-712.5100000000000
13-4-912.5100000000000
5512-6-812.599000000000
11-9-612.599000000000
5411-8-712.499000000000
12-5-912.599000000000
5311-7-812.497001100000
12-4-1012.497001100000
10-10-612.496001100000
5211-6-912.293011111110
10-9-712.293011111110
5110-8-811.986122222111
11-5-1011.986122222111
5010-7-911.576234433221
9-10-711.475234433221
11-4-1111.575234433321
4910-6-1010.762346644432
9-9-810.761356654442
489-8-99.645468866553
10-5-119.644468866653
479-7-108.32948101087764
8-10-88.12858101087764
469-6-116.61658101188774
8-9-96.51548101188774
458-8-104.874791077764
9-5-124.774791077764
448-7-113.12357765553
438-6-121.81235543432
427-8-110.90123322221
417-7-120.40011111110
406-9-110.10000000000
396-8-120.00000000000
386-7-130.00000000000
375-9-120.0000000000
365-8-130.0000000000
355-7-140.0000000000
344-9-13No000
333-11-12No0
13-32No
Total:9.2%60.91.42.53.43.52.62.52.42.21.3
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 5/8100.0*Lottery seed
Galaxy 4 Revolution 2 -0.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Impact vs Union+0.6-0.1-1.3
Union vs Galaxy-0.9+0.4+1.0
Toronto FC vs Whitecaps+0.1-0.1-0.1
Whitecaps vs Fire-0.0-0.0+0.1
Crew vs Rapids+0.1-0.0-0.1
Revolution vs Fire-0.0-0.0+0.1
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 5/15100.0*Lottery seed
Union vs DC United-0.8+0.5+1.2
Timbers vs NYCFC-0.1-0.0+0.1
Sporting KC vs Orlando-0.1-0.0+0.1
Fire vs Dynamo+0.1-0.0-0.1
Toronto FC vs Crew+0.0-0.1-0.0
NYCFC vs Red Bulls+0.0-0.1-0.0
Orlando vs Impact+0.0-0.1+0.0
Toronto FC vs NYCFC+0.0-0.1+0.0

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPW-D-L1234567891011121314151617181920
82-91100
8122-2-21000
8021-4-11000
7921-3-21000
7821-2-310000
7720-4-210000
7620-3-310000
7519-5-210000
7419-4-310000
7319-3-49900
7218-5-399100
7118-4-499100
7017-6-3982000
6917-5-496300
6817-4-5945100
6716-6-4927100
6616-5-58810100
6515-7-48315200
6415-6-577204000
6315-5-6692650000
6214-7-5603280000
6114-6-65039111000
6014-5-73945141000
5913-7-628501831000
5813-6-7195221620000
5713-5-81152221130000
5612-7-76482219510000
5512-6-834118288210000
5411-8-71331336124100000
5311-7-80247421410300000
5211-6-901534213196100000
5110-8-809137102994100000
5010-7-9050285371010300000
4910-6-10020192399206210000
489-8-9101003363197200000
479-7-100050242378175210000
469-6-110201413452886200000
458-8-1000060252358165200000
448-7-1100020141335288631000
437-9-1000107024234812931000
427-8-110000201413251417113000
417-7-1200106023210212211300
406-9-110000201415172822920
396-8-1200107021025311961
386-7-1300003004163130142
375-9-12000100172335257
365-8-13000000314333614
355-7-14000017254225
344-9-13000003164339
334-8-140000193852
324-7-15000043065
314-6-1600022276
303-8-15011584
293-7-16001090
283-6-1700694
272-8-160496
262-7-170298
252-6-180199
241-8-170199
231-7-180100
221-6-190100
13-21100
Total:716616413310272511222111