Philadelphia Union Playoff Chances

Tied Dynamo 0-0, playoff odds down 4.2 to 39.2%
8 points   1-5-2

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 4/19100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Supporters Shield100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
Union 0 Dynamo 0 -5.0
-0.6
-0.4
+1.0
-0.3
Fire 1 New England 1 +0.7
+0.1
FC Dallas 2 Toronto FC 1 +0.5
+0.1
+0.0
Sporting KC 4 Impact 0 -0.3
-0.1
-0.1
Crew 1 DC United 1 +0.3
+0.1
+0.1
Chivas USA 1 Sounders 2 -0.1
-0.2
Real Salt Lake 1 Timbers 0 -0.1
-0.2
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 4/26100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Supporters Shield100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
Impact vs Union-6.5-1.1+10.9
-0.7-0.1+1.1
-0.3-0.1+0.5
+1.7-0.3-2.3
-0.4-0.0+0.7
Dynamo vs Timbers-0.9+0.7+1.4
-0.1+0.1+0.1
-0.1*+0.0+0.4
-0.0+0.0+0.1
DC United vs FC Dallas-1.1+0.5+1.2
-0.1+0.1+0.1
+0.0+0.0-0.1
+0.1-0.0-0.1
-0.1+0.0+0.1
New England vs Sporting KC-0.8+0.5+0.5
-0.1+0.1+0.0
+0.1-0.0-0.1
Crew vs Red Bulls+0.1+0.3-0.8
-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.1+0.0+0.1
Earthquakes vs Chivas USA+0.0-0.1+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Union finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inSupportersChance will finish regular season at seedWooden
TPW-D-LplayoffsShield12345678910SpoonCount
71-86In100.0%100No55,739*
7019-5-2In97.91000No2,410*
6919-4-3In97.2991No4,929*
6819-3-4In95.9991No9,576*
6718-5-3In93.8991No18,298*
6618-4-4In90.89820No33,893*
6517-6-3In86.49730No59,911*
6417-5-4In80.79550No104,040*
6317-4-5In73.392800No175,520*
6216-6-4In64.2891100No286,416*
6116-5-5In53.8841510No459,938*
6015-7-4In42.5792010No710,877*
5915-6-5In31.2722620No1,075,090*
5815-5-6In20.96333400No1,586,833*
5714-7-5In12.55439700No2,277,613*
5614-6-6100.0%6.5444411100No3,190,907*
5514-5-7100.02.8334718200No4,357,556*
5413-7-6100.01.02447254000No5,799,528*
5313-6-7100.00.31543338100No7,529,863*
5212-8-699.90.19363914200No9,544,390*
5112-7-799.70.052642234000No11,787,167*
5012-6-898.90.021739319100No14,206,851*
4911-8-796.80.0193238173000No16,712,101*
4811-7-891.9No042239277100No19,176,332*
4711-6-982.7No02133435153000No21,466,929*
4610-8-868.5No0062438247100No23,429,881*
4510-7-950.9No00214343314200No24,949,746*
4410-6-1033.1No0017253723610No25,901,665*
439-8-918.6No000316353213200.0%26,224,505*
429-7-108.9No0018273722500.025,869,408*
419-6-113.6No00031736321010.024,881,699*
408-8-101.3No0011030391820.023,308,583*
398-7-110.4No000421402850.221,273,854*
387-9-100.1No002133738100.818,893,665*
377-8-110.0No00173045172.316,334,508*
367-7-120.0No00032248265.613,742,661*
356-9-110.0No00115483611.211,233,735*
346-8-120.0No0019434719.28,930,109*
336-7-13OutNo005375829.46,891,924*
325-9-12OutNo003306740.75,158,821*
315-8-13OutNo001237552.23,742,490*
305-7-14OutNo01178263.02,632,381*
294-9-13OutNo00128772.51,787,993*
284-8-14OutNo0099180.21,175,810*
274-7-15OutNo069486.3745,949*
263-9-14OutNo049690.8456,439*
253-8-15OutNo029894.1268,369*
243-7-16OutNo19996.2150,877*
233-6-17OutNo19997.782,063*
222-8-16OutNo19998.742,418*
212-7-17OutNo010099.321,103*
202-6-18OutNo010099.69,729*
8-19OutNo100100.060,668*
Total:39.2%0.6%36810121313131293.9%408,833,760

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Union finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPW-D-LWin CupByeSporting KCCrewToronto FCDynamoDC UnitedNew EnglandFireRed BullsImpact
64-8612.5%Yes
6317-4-512.51000
6216-6-412.41000
6116-5-512.510000000000
6015-7-412.6100000000000
5915-6-512.5100000000000
5815-5-612.4100000000000
5714-7-512.5100000000000
5614-6-612.599000000000
5514-5-712.498000000000
5413-7-612.396001111000
14-4-812.396001110000
5313-6-712.191111111110
12-9-512.292111111110
5212-8-611.884223222220
13-5-811.884222222220
5112-7-711.272334443331
13-4-911.273334443331
11-10-511.374334443331
5012-6-810.358456665441
11-9-610.459456665441
4911-8-79.241568886661
12-5-99.242568886661
10-11-59.343568886661
4811-7-87.7266710998772
12-4-107.8276710998772
10-10-67.8276710997772
4711-6-96.014681010108772
10-9-76.014681010108882
12-3-116.215681010108772
4610-8-84.36579997772
11-5-104.47579997772
9-11-64.57679997772
4510-7-92.82457776552
9-10-72.82457776562
11-4-113.03458776662
4410-6-101.71235554441
9-9-81.71235554441
439-8-90.80123332221
10-5-110.90123332221
429-7-100.40111111110
419-6-110.20001110000
408-8-100.10000000000
398-7-110.00000000000
388-6-120.0000000000
377-8-110.0000000000
367-7-120.0000000000
357-6-130.0000000000
346-8-12No00
8-33No
Total:3.5%16.92.02.43.43.23.22.62.52.40.7
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 4/19100.0*Lottery seed
Union 0 Dynamo 0 +0.6
Fire 1 New England 1 -0.1
FC Dallas 2 Toronto FC 1 -0.0
Sporting KC 4 Impact 0 +0.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 4/26100.0*Lottery seed
Impact vs Union+0.8+0.1-1.3
DC United vs FC Dallas+0.1-0.0-0.1
Dynamo vs Timbers+0.0-0.1-0.0

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPW-D-L12345678910111213141516171819
73-86100
7220-4-2991
7120-3-31000
7019-5-29820
6919-4-39721
6819-3-49631
6718-5-39451
6618-4-491720
6517-6-38610300
6417-5-48114500
6317-4-573198000
6216-6-4642511000
6116-5-55431151100
6015-7-44336191100
5915-6-53140233200
5815-5-6214227640000
5714-7-51241281170000
5614-6-663726181111000
5514-5-733021261532000
5413-7-61231532196400000
5313-6-70158352013711000
5212-8-60943218221222000
5112-7-705125123016640000
5012-6-802017633181491100
4911-8-7010923014231433000
4811-7-800412283118971000
4711-6-900201333017181340000
4610-8-80006123112719102000
4510-7-900020145292020820000
4410-6-1000010722415261861000
439-8-900003015825281541000
429-7-100001083163026123000
419-6-1100003182331239200
408-8-1000010313273118610
398-7-1100000161831281330
387-9-1000002924332371
377-8-11000004153132152
367-7-1200000182436246
356-9-110000416353411
346-8-12000019294119
336-7-1300005224429
325-9-120002154341
315-8-1300193852
305-7-140053263
294-9-130032573
284-8-140011980
274-7-15011386
263-9-1400991
253-8-150694
243-7-160496
233-6-170298
222-8-160199
212-7-17199
202-6-180100
191-8-170100
181-7-180100
171-6-19100
161-5-200100
8-15100
Total:1214263848578888764