Toronto FC Playoff Chances

Tied DC United 4-4, playoff odds down 1.7 to 18.6%
15 points   4-3-7

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 6/23100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Supporters Shield100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
NYCFC vs Toronto FC-3.3+0.3+10.5
-0.1*+0.0+0.3
-0.0-0.0+0.1
+0.9-0.4-2.3
-0.2+0.0+0.7
Seattle vs Chicago+0.8+0.2-1.5
+0.3-0.1-0.3
+0.1+0.0-0.1
Philadelphia vs Vancouver-0.9+0.6+1.2
+0.1-0.0-0.1
-0.1+0.0+0.1
Orlando vs Montreal-0.7+0.9+0.8
-0.1+0.0+0.3
LAFC vs Columbus+0.3-0.0-0.6
+0.0-0.0-0.1
NY Red Bulls vs FC Dallas-0.1+0.0+0.1
RSL vs San Jose-0.2-0.0+0.5
Minnesota vs FC Dallas+0.1-0.0-0.1
Colorado vs Minnesota+0.5-0.4-0.7

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well Toronto FC finishes out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inSupportersChance will finish regular season at seedWooden
TPW-D-LplayoffsShield123456789101112SpoonCount
7520-0-0In99.7%1000No777,972
71-73In96.2100No53*
7018-1-1In89.2955No130
6917-3-0In86.1928No302*
6817-2-1In80.38911No1,064
6717-1-2In72.286140No2,681*
6616-3-1In61.378201No6,581*
6516-2-2In48.9702820No17,245*
6416-1-3In36.3603550No38,088*
6315-3-2In24.54942800No84,171*
6215-2-3In14.738471410No182,148*
6114-4-2In7.727492220No360,915*
6014-3-3In3.5184730500No717,047*
5914-2-4In1.31141381010No1,355,892*
5813-4-3In0.4632431710No2,442,868*
5713-3-4100.0%0.13234525300No4,333,347*
5612-5-3100.00.01154234700No7,358,447*
5512-4-4100.00.00835421310No12,063,108*
5412-3-5100.00.004264621300No19,306,144*
5311-5-499.9No02184530600No29,715,815*
5211-4-599.7No0110403810000No44,371,530*
5111-3-699.0No005324418100No64,501,982*
5010-5-597.2No0022245273000No90,495,968*
4910-4-693.7No0011442376000No123,398,998*
4810-3-787.3No008344512100No163,526,785*
479-5-677.6No0042549203000No209,574,135*
469-4-764.5No0011647296000No261,070,585*
458-6-649.5No009403712100No315,798,699*
448-5-734.4No004304120400No369,834,878*
438-4-821.4No002204029810No420,851,445*
427-6-711.8No0011134361520No464,478,476*
417-5-85.7No006253924600.0%496,319,248*
407-4-92.4No0021636331110.0514,706,674*
396-6-80.8No001929392030.0517,059,879*
386-5-90.3No000420403060.0502,433,951*
376-4-100.1No002123639110.1473,038,087*
365-6-90.0No00162846200.3430,557,092*
355-5-100.0No00031948301.1378,317,165*
345-4-110.0No0011245423.1321,315,025*
334-6-100.0No000639557.2263,018,651*
324-5-110.0No0003306614.0207,184,846*
314-4-12OutNo001227623.4157,123,831*
303-6-11OutNo001158434.8114,384,487*
293-5-12OutNo00109047.179,724,161*
283-4-13OutNo0069459.053,171,141*
272-6-12OutNo0039769.633,789,989*
262-5-13OutNo029878.420,394,557*
252-4-14OutNo019985.211,650,164*
242-3-15OutNo0010090.36,280,481*
231-5-14OutNo010093.83,155,249*
221-4-15OutNo010096.21,477,060*
211-3-16OutNo010097.8635,210*
200-5-15OutNo010098.7246,705*
190-4-16OutNo010099.385,093*
15-18OutNo100100.0810,467*
Total:18.6%0.0%000251114161718163.8%7,193,546,712

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well Toronto FC finishes out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPW-D-LWin CupByeAtlantaNYCFCNY Red BullsColumbusNew EnglandOrlandoChicagoDC UnitedPhiladelphiaMontreal
66-7512.5%Yes
6516-2-212.410000
6416-1-312.310000000000
6315-3-212.41000000000000
6215-2-312.4990000000000
6114-4-212.4980001100000
6014-3-312.2950102200000
5914-2-411.9900114300000
5813-4-311.4821227500000
5713-3-410.87113410810110
5612-5-39.958255151111110
5512-4-48.944277191411110
5412-3-57.831399221721220
11-6-37.730399221721220
5311-5-46.61931011251921220
12-2-66.51931010251922220
5211-4-55.41131011262022220
10-7-35.31031111251922220
12-1-75.41131010262032220
5111-3-64.4631010251932220
10-6-44.2531011251922220
5010-5-53.32289221722220
11-2-73.42289231722220
9-8-33.12289211622220
4910-4-62.51277191422220
9-7-42.31277181321220
11-1-82.41267191422220
4810-3-71.70155151121110
9-6-51.60155141021110
8-9-31.50155141011110
479-5-61.0013410711110
10-2-81.1013411711110
8-8-40.901339611110
469-4-70.600227410110
8-7-50.600226410000
10-1-90.600227410100
459-3-80.300114200000
8-6-60.300113200000
448-5-70.100002100000
9-2-90.100002100000
438-4-80.100001000000
427-6-70.000000000000
417-5-80.00000000000
407-4-90.00000000000
396-6-80.00000000000
386-5-90.0000000000
376-4-100.000000000
365-6-9No0000
355-5-10No0
15-34No
Total:0.4%0.60.20.80.92.41.70.20.20.20.20.0
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 6/23100.0*Lottery seed
NYCFC vs Toronto FC+0.5-0.1-1.5
Minnesota vs FC Dallas+0.1-0.0-0.1
Philadelphia vs Vancouver+0.1-0.1-0.1
Seattle vs Chicago-0.0-0.0+0.1
Orlando vs Montreal+0.0-0.1-0.0

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPW-D-L1234567891011121314151617181920212223
7520-0-010000
7319-1-0100
7219-0-18317
7118-2-0982
7018-1-18955
6917-3-08668
6817-2-1809100
6717-1-272131400
6616-3-161172001
6516-2-2492128020
6416-1-33624341500
6315-3-224253938000
6215-2-3152341614010
6114-4-28203910210200
6014-3-331532152915000
5914-2-4110231835310010
5813-4-3061319376160100
5713-3-40361734112413000
5612-5-30121226173227000
5512-4-400181620366130100
5412-3-5000481934122013000
5311-5-400231526192725000
5211-4-50011101624317100000
5111-3-6000058243014171100
5010-5-50000231923222433000
4910-4-60001113142828960000
4810-3-70000762827181120000
479-5-60000422320291651000
469-4-700010151136191241000
458-6-60000953518201020000
448-5-700004129132320820000
438-4-800020197202717610000
427-6-7000101121327271441000
417-5-800006161930251130000
407-4-90002021024312182000
396-6-80001004142830175100
386-5-90000001619302713300
376-4-100000029233223810
365-6-900000031429321740
355-5-100000016203428101
345-4-11000002112935193
334-6-100000152037297
324-5-1100000212333914
314-4-1200016254523
303-6-110002174635
293-5-120001104247
283-4-1300053659
272-6-1200032870
262-5-130012178
252-4-14001485
242-3-15001090
231-5-1400694
221-4-150496
211-3-160298
200-5-150199
190-4-16199
180-3-170100
170-2-180100
160-1-19100
150-0-200100
Total:0000001114384579910109874