Toronto FC Playoff Chances

Did not play, playoff odds down 0.3 to 69.2%
4 points   1-1-0

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 3/7100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Supporters Shield100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
Toronto FC 1 NYCFC 0 +6.2
+0.7
+1.0
-1.2
+0.6
New England 1 Chicago 1 +0.4
+0.1
Colorado 2 Orlando 1 +0.4
+0.0
DC United 2 Miami 1 -0.1
Atlanta 2 Cincinnati 1 -0.1
LAFC 3 Philadelphia 3 +0.1
RSL 1 NY Red Bulls 1 +0.1
FC Dallas 2 Montreal 2 +0.1
Seattle 1 Columbus 1 +0.1
San Jose 2 Minnesota 5 -0.1
-0.1
Sporting KC 4 Houston 0 -0.1
LA Galaxy 0 Vancouver 1 +0.1
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 3/14100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Supporters Shield100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
Toronto FC vs Nashville+5.2-4.5-8.9
+0.7-0.6-1.2
+1.4-1.4-2.3
-0.5+0.3+1.0
+0.5-0.4-0.8
Philadelphia vs San Jose-0.5+0.4+0.7
-0.1+0.0+0.1
-0.0+0.0+0.1
New England vs Portland-0.5+0.4+0.7
-0.1+0.0+0.1
-0.0+0.0+0.1
Miami vs LA Galaxy-0.5+0.4+0.7
-0.0+0.0+0.1
-0.0+0.0+0.1
NYCFC vs FC Dallas-0.5+0.3+0.6
+0.1+0.0-0.1
Minnesota vs NY Red Bulls+0.3-0.0-0.8
+0.1*+0.0-0.1
-0.1+0.2+0.1
+0.0-0.0-0.1
Columbus vs RSL-0.4+0.3+0.7
-0.1+0.1+0.1
-0.1+0.1+0.0
-0.0+0.0+0.1
Atlanta vs Sporting KC-0.3+0.2+0.5
-0.1+0.1+0.1
*+0.0+0.1-0.2
-0.0+0.0+0.1
Orlando vs Chicago-0.1+0.4-0.2
Cincinnati vs DC United-0.1+0.4-0.1
*-0.0+0.1-0.1
+0.0+0.0-0.1
Vancouver vs Colorado+0.1+0.1-0.2
Houston vs Seattle+0.0+0.0-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well Toronto FC finishes out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inSupportersChance will finish regular season at seedWooden
TPW-D-LplayoffsShield12345678910111213SpoonCount
82-100InYes100No8,467*
8124-5-3In99.4%991No163*
78-80In99.8100No2,106*
7723-4-5In99.81000No2,097*
7622-6-4In99.81000No3,621*
7522-5-5In99.51000No6,176*
7422-4-6In99.41000No10,468*
7321-6-5In99.31000No17,265*
7221-5-6In98.81000No27,632*
7120-7-5In98.210000No43,634*
7020-6-6In97.0991No66,341*
6920-5-7In95.49910No99,607*
6819-7-6In93.49820No146,916*
6719-6-7In90.29730No212,273*
6619-5-8In86.19640No298,748*
6518-7-7In80.594600No413,883*
6418-6-8In73.591900No558,968*
6317-8-7In64.7871200No743,726*
6217-7-8In54.3821710No965,280*
6117-6-9In43.17622200No1,231,301*
6016-8-8In31.868294000No1,537,379*
5916-7-9In21.258356000No1,883,493*
5816-6-10In12.54840111000No2,264,289*
5715-8-9In6.3374317300No2,668,867*
5615-7-10In2.62743246100No3,084,259*
5515-6-11100.0%0.8184031112000No3,500,277*
5414-8-10100.00.2103235174100No3,886,873*
5314-7-11100.00.0523362592000No4,234,202*
5213-9-10100.00.02143131164100No4,523,405*
5113-8-1199.80.0172333241020000No4,742,162*
5013-7-1298.9No031428301861000No4,869,506*
4912-9-1196.3No016203126123000No4,909,250*
4812-8-1289.7No0021125312182000No4,841,158*
4712-7-1377.2No00141528291751000No4,686,859*
4611-9-1258.7No00017203026123000No4,442,602*
4511-8-1338.1No0003112430218200No4,127,786*
4411-7-1420.7No0001515282916510No3,756,719*
4310-9-139.2No000182131261120No3,353,594*
4210-8-143.3No000312263220610.0%2,932,381*
4110-7-151.0No00161832291220.02,507,182*
409-9-140.2No00021027352150.12,097,861*
399-8-150.0No001519353190.51,720,052*
389-7-160.0No0002113138171.81,379,909*
378-9-150.0No00162443265.01,081,660*
368-8-16OutNo00317433711.0828,669*
358-7-17OutNo00111404820.0619,306*
347-9-16OutNo0006345931.4453,812*
337-8-17OutNo003276944.0324,517*
327-7-18OutNo02217756.2226,224*
316-9-17OutNo01158467.4153,701*
306-8-18OutNo00118976.7102,018*
296-7-19OutNo0079383.865,380*
285-9-18OutNo059589.240,956*
275-8-19OutNo039793.025,193*
265-7-20OutNo029895.614,624*
254-9-19OutNo19997.38,383*
244-8-20OutNo19998.54,813*
234-7-21OutNo010099.12,647*
223-9-20OutNo010099.41,335*
4-21OutNo100100.09,573*
Total:69.2%5.3%121111109887665431.2%86,771,548

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well Toronto FC finishes out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPW-D-LWin CupByeAtlantaColumbusNY Red BullsMontrealDC UnitedChicagoPhiladelphiaNew EnglandCincinnatiOrlandoMiamiNYCFC
66-10012.5%Yes
6518-7-712.51000
6418-6-812.5100000000
6317-8-712.51000000000000
6217-7-812.5100000000000000
6117-6-912.5100000000000000
16-9-712.5100000000000000
6016-8-812.4100000000000000
17-5-1012.5100000000000000
5916-7-912.599000000000000
15-10-712.4100000000000000
5816-6-1012.499000000000000
15-9-812.499000000000000
5715-8-912.497000000000000
16-5-1112.497000000000000
5615-7-1012.294111110000000
14-10-812.293111111100000
16-4-1212.294111110000000
5515-6-1112.088111111111111
14-9-911.987111111111111
13-12-712.088111111111111
5414-8-1011.377222222222111
15-5-1211.579222222211111
13-11-811.477222222222111
5314-7-1110.664444433322222
13-10-910.562444433333222
15-4-1310.866344333322222
5213-9-109.346555544434332
14-6-129.549555544433332
12-12-89.448555544433332
5113-8-117.730666655544443
14-5-137.933666654444433
12-11-97.629666655544443
5013-7-125.917666655544443
12-10-105.615666655544443
14-4-146.018666655544443
4912-9-113.77555544444433
13-6-134.18555554444433
11-12-93.87555554444433
4812-8-122.23344433333322
13-5-142.33344433333322
4712-7-131.11222222211111
4611-9-120.40111111111111
4511-8-130.10000000000000
4411-7-140.00000000000000
4310-9-130.00000000000000
4210-8-140.0000000000000
4110-7-15No000000000000
4011-3-18No0
4-39No
Total:5.5%34.31.92.02.02.01.71.51.51.41.41.31.21.0
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 3/7100.0*Lottery seed
Toronto FC 1 NYCFC 0 -1.1
New England 1 Chicago 1 -0.1
Colorado 2 Orlando 1 -0.0
Atlanta 2 Cincinnati 1 +0.0
Seattle 1 Columbus 1 -0.0
LAFC 3 Philadelphia 3 -0.0
DC United 2 Miami 1 +0.0
RSL 1 NY Red Bulls 1 -0.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 3/14100.0*Lottery seed
Toronto FC vs Nashville-1.0+0.9+1.7
Minnesota vs NY Red Bulls-0.0-0.0+0.1
Atlanta vs Sporting KC+0.1-0.1-0.1
Columbus vs RSL+0.1-0.1-0.1
Philadelphia vs San Jose+0.1-0.1-0.1
New England vs Portland+0.1-0.1-0.1
Miami vs LA Galaxy+0.0-0.0-0.1
NYCFC vs FC Dallas+0.1-0.0-0.0
Cincinnati vs DC United+0.0-0.1+0.0
Orlando vs Chicago+0.0-0.1+0.0

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPW-D-L1234567891011121314151617181920212223242526
82-100100
8124-5-3991
8024-4-41000
7923-6-31000
7823-5-41000
7723-4-510000
7622-6-410000
7522-5-510000
7422-4-69910
7321-6-59910
7221-5-69910
7120-7-598100
7020-6-69721
6920-5-795310
6819-7-6935200
6719-6-7907300
6619-5-88610400
6518-7-781136000
6418-6-874189000
6317-8-76523120000
6217-7-85428161100
6117-6-943322112000
6016-8-8323625340000
5916-7-92137296600000
5816-6-101335291110010000
5715-8-9631261715130000
5615-7-103242023204601000
5515-6-111171227229101200000
5414-8-100106271916152401000
5314-7-110522113231969020000
5213-9-10020146251814142401000
5113-8-110107221112118791200000
5013-7-120030135241615153601000
4912-9-11001061189221791113000
4812-8-12000020113221218165820000
4712-7-13000104015523151314720000
4611-9-1200001071199211715720000
4511-8-13000030113221220179310000
4411-7-140000105015515222011410000
4310-9-130000107171624221351000
4210-8-14000030271624241562000
4110-7-1500010027162525166200
409-9-140000002717262516610
399-8-15000000281827251440
389-7-1600000039213024102
378-9-15000014132632205
368-8-16001618333011
358-7-17000211283820
347-9-160015214231
337-8-17002144044
327-7-1800183556
316-9-170042867
306-8-180022177
296-7-19011584
285-9-18001089
275-8-190793
265-7-200496
254-9-190397
244-8-20298
234-7-21199
223-9-20199
213-8-210100
203-7-220100
4-19100
Total:57575646454534333333322221