Toronto FC Playoff Chances

Did not play, playoff odds up 0.4 to 93.3%
13 points   4-1-1

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 4/20100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Supporters Shield100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
Atlanta 1 FC Dallas 2 +0.3
+0.1
-0.2
Orlando 1 Vancouver 0 -0.3
-0.1
Chicago 4 Colorado 1 -0.2
Columbus 1 Portland 3 +0.2
+0.1
+0.1
+0.1
New England 1 NY Red Bulls 0 +0.1
Philadelphia 3 Montreal 0 -0.1
San Jose 4 Sporting KC 1 +0.1
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
DC United vs NYCFC+0.1+0.0-0.3
-0.1+0.1+0.2
Columbus vs DC United-0.2+0.1+0.2
-0.0+0.1+0.0
+0.1+0.1-0.2
New England vs Montreal+0.0+0.1-0.2
+0.0+0.0-0.1
NYCFC vs Chicago-0.1+0.2-0.1
+0.0+0.0-0.1
Seattle vs San Jose-0.3+0.3+0.5
LAFC vs Seattle-0.3+0.5+0.1
Minnesota vs LA Galaxy+0.2+0.1-0.5
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 4/27100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Supporters Shield100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
Toronto FC vs Portland+2.0-1.7-3.8
+0.6-0.5-1.0
+1.6-1.6-2.6
-0.0+0.0+0.1
+0.3-0.3-0.6
Atlanta vs Colorado-0.2+0.2+0.3
-0.0+0.0+0.1
Houston vs Columbus+0.1-0.0-0.3
+0.1*-0.0-0.2
-0.1+0.1+0.1
+0.0-0.0-0.1
Sporting KC vs New England+0.1*-0.0-0.3
Philadelphia vs Cincinnati+0.0+0.1-0.2
-0.0+0.1+0.0
-0.1+0.1+0.1
Vancouver vs Philadelphia+0.1+0.0-0.2
+0.1+0.0-0.1
+0.1+0.0-0.1
+0.0+0.0-0.1
NY Red Bulls vs Cincinnati-0.1+0.2-0.1
NYCFC vs Orlando-0.0+0.2-0.1
+0.0+0.0-0.1
Montreal vs Chicago-0.1+0.2-0.0
-0.0+0.1-0.0
Minnesota vs DC United+0.1*-0.0-0.1
+0.0*+0.0-0.1
+0.1+0.1-0.2
+0.0+0.0-0.1
Seattle vs LAFC+0.1+0.4-0.5
LA Galaxy vs RSL-0.3+0.3+0.4
FC Dallas vs San Jose-0.1+0.1+0.2

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well Toronto FC finishes out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inSupportersChance will finish regular season at seedWooden
TPW-D-LplayoffsShield123456789101112SpoonCount
83-97In100.0%100No119,825*
8222-3-3In99.91000No6,873*
8121-5-2In99.81000No13,513*
8021-4-3In99.81000No25,910*
7921-3-4In99.71000No47,716*
7820-5-3In99.41000No85,507*
7720-4-4In99.11000No149,022*
7620-3-5In98.51000No254,470*
7519-5-4In97.71000No419,654*
7419-4-5In96.51000No676,428*
7318-6-4In94.71000No1,062,983*
7218-5-5In92.410000No1,624,494*
7118-4-6In89.110000No2,428,362*
7017-6-5In84.79910No3,535,470*
6917-5-6In79.19910No5,031,399*
6816-7-5In72.298200No6,996,757*
6716-6-6In64.09730No9,492,361*
6616-5-7In54.796400No12,605,331*
6515-7-6In44.894600No16,340,019*
6415-6-7In34.791900No20,713,549*
6315-5-8In25.2871200No25,685,429*
6214-7-7In16.88317100No31,139,615*
6114-6-8In10.27722100No36,927,547*
6014-5-9In5.56928300No42,819,051*
5913-7-8In2.661345000No48,572,233*
5813-6-9In1.052408100No53,893,832*
5712-8-8In0.34244131000No58,515,027*
5612-7-9In0.13246193000No62,153,346*
5512-6-10100.0%0.022452661000No64,546,196*
5411-8-9100.00.0144033111000No65,571,354*
5311-7-10100.00.083338174000No65,170,492*
5211-6-11100.00.0423382581000No63,323,732*
5110-8-10100.0No21534321430000No60,159,782*
5010-7-1199.9No1826352271000No55,885,785*
4910-6-1299.6No03173330143000No50,743,839*
489-8-1198.6No019253422810000No45,028,296*
479-7-1295.7No0041631301540000No39,035,446*
469-6-1388.9No001823332492000No33,040,055*
458-8-1276.7No0003132931185100No27,318,629*
448-7-1359.5No0001620322711200No22,038,729*
438-6-1440.2No000211273220610No17,358,276*
427-8-1323.3No0001518322913300.0%13,321,728*
417-7-1411.4No000210253422610.09,965,249*
407-6-154.7No00041733311320.07,275,493*
396-8-141.6No0002927362240.05,159,156*
386-7-150.5No000418373190.13,565,714*
376-6-160.1No002113239160.62,395,158*
365-8-150.0No00162544251.91,563,441*
355-7-160.0No00031744364.7990,241*
345-6-170.0No0011141489.9607,906*
334-8-16OutNo006355917.6361,771*
324-7-17OutNo003286927.6208,629*
314-6-18OutNo02217738.9116,269*
303-8-17OutNo01158450.962,055*
293-7-18OutNo0118962.031,971*
283-6-19OutNo079271.515,759*
272-8-18OutNo059579.67,555*
262-7-19OutNo39786.13,300*
252-6-20OutNo29890.71,491*
242-5-21OutNo29892.7591*
231-7-20OutNo010094.2241*
13-22OutNo100100.0113,756*
Total:93.3%6.0%29211511864321100.0%1,096,323,808

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well Toronto FC finishes out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPW-D-LWin CupByeDC UnitedPhiladelphiaColumbusMontrealChicagoOrlandoNY Red BullsAtlantaNYCFCCincinnatiNew England
69-9712.5%Yes
6816-7-512.51000
6716-6-612.5Yes
6616-5-712.5100000
6515-7-612.51000000000
6415-6-712.510000000000000
6315-5-812.510000000000000
6214-7-712.510000000000000
15-4-912.510000000000000
6114-6-812.510000000000000
13-9-612.510000000000000
6014-5-912.510000000000000
13-8-712.510000000000000
5913-7-812.510000000000000
14-4-1012.510000000000000
5813-6-912.59900000000000
12-9-712.59900000000000
5712-8-812.59900000000000
13-5-1012.59900000000000
5612-7-912.49700000000000
13-4-1112.49700000000000
11-10-712.49700000000000
5512-6-1012.39401111100000
11-9-812.39311111100000
5411-8-912.08711222211110
12-5-1112.08811221111110
5311-7-1011.67923333321110
10-10-811.57723333321111
12-4-1211.78022332211110
5211-6-1111.06734444422221
10-9-910.96534544422221
5110-8-109.85046666643331
11-5-1210.05146666533331
5010-7-118.63557877744442
9-10-98.53457877744442
4910-6-127.02157887754442
9-9-106.81957888754442
489-8-115.01057877754442
10-5-135.21057877754442
479-7-123.4445665543332
469-6-131.9123444432221
458-8-120.9012222211111
448-7-130.4001111111010
438-6-140.1000000000000
427-8-130.0000000000000
417-7-140.0000000000000
407-6-150.000000000000
396-8-140.000000000000
386-7-15No000000
13-37No
Total:9.5%65.31.52.22.52.32.22.21.41.21.21.10.5
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 4/20100.0*Lottery seed
Columbus 1 Portland 3 -0.1
Atlanta 1 FC Dallas 2 -0.0
Orlando 1 Vancouver 0 +0.0
Chicago 4 Colorado 1 +0.0
New England 1 NY Red Bulls 0 -0.0
Philadelphia 3 Montreal 0 +0.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
DC United vs NYCFC+0.1-0.1-0.1
New England vs Montreal-0.0-0.0+0.1
Columbus vs DC United+0.0-0.1+0.0
NYCFC vs Chicago-0.0-0.0+0.1
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 4/27100.0*Lottery seed
Toronto FC vs Portland-0.6+0.6+1.2
Vancouver vs Philadelphia-0.1-0.0+0.1
Minnesota vs DC United-0.1-0.0+0.1
Houston vs Columbus-0.0-0.0+0.1
Philadelphia vs Cincinnati+0.1-0.1-0.1
NYCFC vs Orlando-0.0-0.0+0.1
Montreal vs Chicago+0.0-0.1+0.0

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPW-D-L123456789101112131415161718192021222324
84-97100
8322-4-21000
8222-3-310000
8121-5-210000
8021-4-310000
7921-3-410000
7820-5-39910
7720-4-49910
7620-3-59910
7519-5-49820
7419-4-59630
7318-6-49550
7218-5-5927000
7118-4-68910000
7017-6-58515100
6917-5-67920100
6816-7-572262000
6716-6-664333000
6616-5-7554140000
6515-7-6454961000
6415-6-7355681000
6315-5-82562103000
6214-7-7176611510000
6114-6-8106612910000
6014-5-9664121520000
5913-7-835811234100000
5813-6-91518325300000
5712-8-8041539671000000
5612-7-90313447132100000
5512-6-1002214462142000000
5411-8-9014040429561000000
5311-7-10080332365123100000
5211-6-110402313842143100000
5110-8-102015034330682100000
5010-7-111080261345175210000
4910-6-120301703242677300000
489-8-1101090252327166210000
479-7-1200040160305259641000
469-6-13001080232309158310000
458-8-120000301312872412830000
448-7-130001060203291316930000
438-6-1400002011125102018920000
427-8-130001050175172519820000
417-7-14000020921023271872000
407-6-150000414152627165100
396-8-140000201719292613400
386-7-15000002102230231020
376-6-160000141327301961
365-8-150000016193228122
355-7-16000002112634215
345-6-170001518353110
334-8-1600211303918
324-7-170015234328
314-6-18002164339
303-8-1700193951
293-7-180053262
283-6-19032672
272-8-18011980
262-7-1911386
252-6-200991
242-5-21793
231-7-20694
221-6-21298
13-21100
Total:623318213291614131111110000