Toronto FC Playoff Chances

Season start, playoff odds unchanged at 53.8%
0 points   0-0-0

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 2/29100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Supporters Shield100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
San Jose vs Toronto FC-4.5+0.0+10.5
-0.5-0.0+1.2
-1.0-0.2+2.6
+0.9-0.2-2.0
-0.4-0.0+1.0
DC United vs Colorado-0.5+0.4+0.8
-0.1+0.0+0.1
-0.0+0.0+0.1
Orlando vs RSL-0.5+0.4+0.8
-0.1+0.0+0.1
-0.0+0.0+0.1
LAFC vs Miami+0.4-0.0-0.9
+0.0+0.0-0.1
-0.0+0.1-0.0
+0.0+0.0-0.1
FC Dallas vs Philadelphia+0.4*-0.0-0.9
+0.0+0.0-0.1
-0.0+0.1-0.0
+0.0+0.0-0.1
Seattle vs Chicago+0.4*-0.0-0.9
+0.0+0.0-0.1
+0.0+0.0-0.1
Nashville vs Atlanta+0.4-0.0-0.9
+0.0+0.0-0.1
+0.0+0.0-0.1
NY Red Bulls vs Cincinnati-0.1+0.4-0.1
Columbus vs NYCFC-0.1+0.4-0.1
Montreal vs New England-0.1+0.4-0.1
Portland vs Minnesota-0.0+0.1-0.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 3/7100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Supporters Shield100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
Toronto FC vs NYCFC+6.5-4.6-10.0
+0.7-0.5-1.0
+1.2-1.0-1.7
-1.3+0.8+2.2
+0.6-0.4-0.9
FC Dallas vs Montreal+0.4*+0.0-0.9
+0.0+0.0-0.1
-0.0+0.1-0.0
+0.0+0.0-0.1
LAFC vs Philadelphia+0.4-0.0-0.9
+0.0+0.0-0.1
-0.0+0.1-0.0
+0.0+0.0-0.1
Seattle vs Columbus+0.4-0.0-0.9
+0.0+0.0-0.1
+0.0+0.0-0.1
RSL vs NY Red Bulls+0.4-0.0-0.9
+0.0+0.0-0.1
+0.0+0.0-0.1
Colorado vs Orlando+0.4-0.0-0.9
+0.0+0.0-0.1
+0.0+0.0-0.1
Atlanta vs Cincinnati-0.1+0.4-0.1
New England vs Chicago-0.1+0.4-0.1
DC United vs Miami-0.1+0.4-0.1
San Jose vs Minnesota-0.0+0.1-0.0
LA Galaxy vs Vancouver-0.0+0.1-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well Toronto FC finishes out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inSupportersChance will finish regular season at seedWooden
TPW-D-LplayoffsShield12345678910111213SpoonCount
82-102In100.0%100No1,213,598*
8125-6-3In99.91000No9,238*
8025-5-4In99.91000No17,964*
7925-4-5In99.91000No34,143*
7824-6-4In99.91000No63,993*
7724-5-5In99.91000No117,286*
7624-4-6In99.91000No208,146*
7523-6-5In99.91000No363,713*
7423-5-6In99.81000No620,222*
7322-7-5In99.710000No1,033,977*
7222-6-6In99.510000No1,690,972*
7122-5-7In99.210000No2,705,777*
7021-7-6In98.710000No4,244,461*
6921-6-7In98.09910No6,525,586*
6821-5-8In96.89910No9,842,390*
6720-7-7In95.09820No14,544,228*
6620-6-8In92.397300No21,085,021*
6519-8-7In88.595500No29,959,873*
6419-7-8In83.293700No41,793,226*
6319-6-9In76.28910000No57,195,266*
6218-8-8In67.28415100No76,809,213*
6118-7-9In56.578202000No101,231,522*
6018-6-10In44.470263000No130,938,325*
5917-8-9In32.1613360000No166,230,083*
5817-7-10In20.75138101000No207,210,628*
5716-9-9100.0%11.539421630000No253,541,965*
5616-8-10100.05.328432361000No304,554,506*
5516-7-11100.01.91939301020000No359,182,318*
5415-9-10100.00.511323417510000No415,833,148*
5315-8-11100.00.162335251020000No472,731,052*
5215-7-1299.90.0214303117510000No527,537,850*
5114-9-1199.60.0172131251130000No577,960,772*
5014-8-1298.30.003122630197200000No621,594,199*
4914-7-1394.40.001617292715510000No656,271,652*
4813-9-1285.6No00292230241130000No680,078,545*
4713-8-1370.4No00131225292082000No691,668,239*
4613-7-1450.3No00015162828165100No690,409,516*
4512-9-1330.2No00002820292512300No676,270,561*
4412-8-1414.9No00003112430218100.0%649,904,365*
4311-10-135.9No00001516292916400.0612,731,020*
4211-9-141.9No0000282232251010.0566,673,770*
4111-8-150.5No000031329331840.0513,890,046*
4010-10-140.1No00001721352880.2456,974,057*
3910-9-150.0No00003143236151.0398,362,031*
3810-8-160.0No0000172642243.4340,335,094*
379-10-150.0No000041843358.5284,924,547*
369-9-160.0No000112404716.9233,664,902*
359-8-170.0No00017355828.2187,621,208*
348-10-16OutNo0004286841.1147,469,206*
338-9-17OutNo0002217754.1113,478,228*
328-8-18OutNo0001158465.885,390,355*
317-10-17OutNo000118975.662,823,728*
307-9-18OutNo00079383.245,193,881*
297-8-19OutNo0059588.931,749,503*
286-10-18OutNo0039792.921,769,268*
276-9-19OutNo029895.514,565,242*
266-8-20OutNo019997.39,510,746*
255-10-19OutNo019998.46,049,154*
245-9-20OutNo0010099.03,742,547*
235-8-21OutNo0010099.52,253,440*
224-10-20OutNo0010099.71,319,523*
214-9-21OutNo010099.8749,444*
204-8-22OutNo010099.9413,361*
194-7-23OutNo010099.9219,714*
183-9-22OutNo010099.9113,090*
173-8-23OutNo010099.956,127*
0-16OutNo100100.01,253,041*
Total:53.8%3.8%88888888888883.8%12,596,523,812

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well Toronto FC finishes out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPW-D-LWin CupByeNYCFCChicagoColumbusMontrealAtlantaCincinnatiPhiladelphiaNew EnglandDC UnitedOrlandoMiamiNY Red Bulls
67-10212.5%Yes
6620-6-812.510000000000
6519-8-712.5100000000000000
6419-7-812.5100000000000000
6319-6-912.5100000000000000
6218-8-812.5100000000000000
6118-7-912.5100000000000000
6018-6-1012.5100000000000000
5917-8-912.5100000000000000
18-5-1112.5100000000000000
5817-7-1012.499000000000000
16-10-812.599000000000000
5716-9-912.497000000000000
17-6-1112.497000000000000
5616-8-1012.294111111111111
17-5-1212.394000000000000
15-11-812.293111111111111
5516-7-1111.988111111111111
15-10-911.987111111111111
17-4-1312.088111111111111
5415-9-1011.376222222222222
16-6-1211.479222222222222
14-12-811.377222222222222
5315-8-1110.463333333333333
14-11-910.361333333333333
16-5-1310.665333333333333
5215-7-129.247444444444444
14-10-108.944444444444444
16-4-149.247444444444444
5114-9-117.228555555555555
15-6-137.631555555555555
13-12-97.228555555555555
5014-8-125.416555555555555
13-11-105.014555555555555
15-5-145.617555555555555
4914-7-133.67444444444444
13-10-113.36444444444444
4813-9-121.82222222222222
14-6-141.92333333333333
4713-8-130.81111111111111
4613-7-140.30111111111111
4512-9-130.10000000000000
4412-8-140.00000000000000
4312-7-150.00000000000000
4211-9-140.00000000000000
4111-8-150.0000000000000
4011-7-160.0000000000000
3911-6-170.000000000000
3810-8-16No0
0-37No
Total:3.8%23.11.31.31.31.31.31.31.31.31.31.31.31.3
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 2/29100.0*Lottery seed
San Jose vs Toronto FC+0.9-0.0-2.0
DC United vs Colorado+0.1-0.1-0.1
Orlando vs RSL+0.1-0.1-0.1
LAFC vs Miami-0.0-0.0+0.1
Seattle vs Chicago-0.0-0.0+0.1
FC Dallas vs Philadelphia-0.0-0.0+0.1
Nashville vs Atlanta-0.0-0.0+0.1
NY Red Bulls vs Cincinnati+0.0-0.1+0.0
Montreal vs New England+0.0-0.1+0.0
Columbus vs NYCFC+0.0-0.1+0.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 3/7100.0*Lottery seed
Toronto FC vs NYCFC-1.2+0.9+1.8
FC Dallas vs Montreal-0.0-0.0+0.1
Seattle vs Columbus-0.0-0.0+0.1
RSL vs NY Red Bulls-0.0-0.0+0.1
LAFC vs Philadelphia-0.0-0.0+0.1
Colorado vs Orlando-0.0-0.0+0.1
DC United vs Miami+0.0-0.1+0.0
Atlanta vs Cincinnati+0.0-0.1+0.0
New England vs Chicago+0.0-0.1+0.0

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPW-D-L1234567891011121314151617181920212223242526
85-102100
8427-3-41000
8326-5-31000
8226-4-41000
8125-6-310000
8025-5-410000
7925-4-510000
7824-6-410000
7724-5-510000
7624-4-610000
7523-6-510000
7423-5-610000
7322-7-5100000
7222-6-6100000
7122-5-799100
7021-7-699100
6921-6-7981100
6821-5-8972100
6720-7-7953200
6620-6-89253000
6519-8-78975000
6419-7-883970000
6319-6-976131000000
6218-8-867171501000
6118-7-9562220020000
6018-6-104426251300000
5917-8-932293036000000
5817-7-102130336100100000
5716-9-9122832101513000000
5616-8-1052327162125010000
5516-7-1121718212551002000000
5415-9-101101022241016150100000
5315-8-11054191817214902000000
5215-7-120211392021916150100000
5114-9-1101073181516214110300000
5014-8-120003112720191118270200000
4914-7-1300010621610182071415100000
4813-9-1200002093181415194113100000
4713-8-1300010301261917121893000000
4613-7-1400000105115919191893100000
4512-9-13000000208218122120114100000
4412-8-1400000030114142322146200000
4311-10-130000001051514232417820000
4211-9-1400000020151322251993100
4111-8-150000000141222262010300
4010-10-14000000001412232721920
3910-9-150000000151325292071
3810-8-16000000016162829163
379-10-150000000282133279
369-9-16000000313303617
359-8-170000017234128
348-10-1600003154141
338-9-17000193654
328-8-18000052966
317-10-1700022276
307-9-180011683
297-8-1900001189
286-10-18000793
276-9-1900496
266-8-2000397
255-10-190298
245-9-200199
235-8-210199
224-10-2000100
214-9-2100100
204-8-220100
194-7-230100
183-9-220100
173-8-230100
163-7-240100
152-9-230100
142-8-240100
132-7-25100
122-6-260100
0-11100
Total:44444444444444444444444444