How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 5/8100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Supporters Shield100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
Galaxy 4 Revolution 2 -0.3
-0.2
DC United 0 NYCFC 2 +0.1
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
FC Dallas vs Timbers-5.9+0.4+13.2
-0.4-0.0+1.0
-0.2-0.1+0.5
+1.5-0.3-3.1
-0.3+0.0+0.8
Toronto FC vs Whitecaps+0.7-0.0-1.7
+0.0*+0.0-0.1
-0.1+0.0+0.1
+0.0-0.0-0.1
Whitecaps vs Fire-1.0+0.7+1.4
-0.0+0.0+0.1
-0.1-0.0+0.2
-0.1+0.0+0.1
Rapids vs Sporting KC+0.5+0.1-1.4
-0.0+0.0+0.1
-0.0+0.0+0.1
+0.0+0.0-0.1
Earthquakes vs Dynamo-0.4+0.8+0.1
-0.0+0.1+0.0
-0.1-0.0+0.2
FC Dallas vs Sounders-0.3+0.7-0.3
-0.0+0.1-0.0
Dynamo vs Real Salt Lake-0.3+0.5+0.2
+0.0+0.0-0.1
+0.2-0.1-0.3
Crew vs Rapids+0.2+0.0-0.3
+0.0+0.0-0.1
+0.0+0.0-0.1
+0.3-0.1-0.3
Union vs Galaxy+0.2+0.0-0.3
+0.0+0.0-0.1
Revolution vs Fire+0.3-0.2-0.3
DC United vs Red Bulls+0.1-0.1-0.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 5/15100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Supporters Shield100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
Timbers vs NYCFC+6.9-4.6-8.9
+0.5-0.4-0.6
+0.2-0.2-0.3
-2.3+1.2+3.4
+0.4-0.3-0.5
Sporting KC vs Orlando-1.1+0.7+1.4
-0.1+0.0+0.1
-0.1+0.0+0.1
Revolution vs FC Dallas+0.8+0.0-1.5
+0.1+0.0-0.1
+0.5-0.3-0.6
+0.0+0.0-0.1
Sounders vs Rapids-1.0+0.5+1.0
+0.0+0.0-0.1
+0.1-0.0-0.1
Fire vs Dynamo+0.6+0.1-1.3
+0.0+0.0-0.1
+0.1-0.1-0.1
+0.0+0.0-0.1
Sporting KC vs Real Salt Lake-0.7+0.7+0.6
+0.1-0.0-0.1
Orlando vs Impact+0.1-0.0-0.1
Toronto FC vs NYCFC-0.0+0.0+0.1
Red Bulls vs Fire+0.1-0.1-0.1
Toronto FC vs Crew-0.1+0.0+0.3
Union vs DC United-0.1+0.0+0.3
NYCFC vs Red Bulls-0.1-0.0+0.3

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Timbers finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inSupportersChance will finish regular season at seedWooden
TPW-D-LplayoffsShield12345678910SpoonCount
8424-0-0In100.0%1000No709,694
75-79In99.7100No330*
7420-2-2In99.81000No612*
7319-4-1In99.91000No1,400*
7219-3-2In99.41000No3,385*
7119-2-3In99.1991No7,704*
7018-4-2In98.2991No17,149*
6918-3-3In97.29820No36,645*
6817-5-2In95.79730No74,261*
6717-4-3In93.39550No146,911*
6617-3-4In90.293700No281,859*
6516-5-3In85.5901000No522,042*
6416-4-4In79.6851400No941,703*
6315-6-3In72.1801910No1,644,094*
6215-5-4In63.07325200No2,786,000*
6115-4-5In52.76532400No4,591,813*
6014-6-4In41.55538600No7,359,140*
5914-5-5In30.4454410100No11,461,625*
5814-4-6In20.4354716200No17,390,041*
5713-6-5100.0%12.22648233000No25,658,786*
5613-5-6100.06.31745317000No36,848,457*
5512-7-5100.02.710383812100No51,576,601*
5412-6-6100.00.962942203000No70,275,503*
5312-5-7100.00.232042297100No93,306,154*
5211-7-699.90.01113637132000No120,687,092*
5111-6-799.60.0062640225000No152,087,356*
5011-5-898.50.002163832111000No186,787,138*
4910-7-795.30.00182938204000No223,432,453*
4810-6-888.4No00319373010100No260,456,555*
4710-5-976.3No00110293619400No295,790,569*
469-7-859.4No00041936291010No327,210,036*
459-6-940.9No0011029361940No352,519,527*
449-5-1024.4No000420372991No369,854,831*
438-7-912.5No00021131371720.0%377,787,829*
428-6-105.5No000522392860.0375,436,513*
417-8-92.1No0002133637120.0363,142,541*
407-7-100.7No000172844200.1341,586,654*
397-6-110.2No00032046310.6312,327,942*
386-8-100.0No00011244432.1277,470,656*
376-7-110.0No000738555.6239,375,654*
366-6-120.0No0004316612.2200,411,876*
355-8-110.0No002237521.9162,723,612*
345-7-120.0No001178333.9128,018,789*
335-6-130.0No000118846.897,501,121*
324-8-12OutNo0079259.371,799,396*
314-7-13OutNo0059570.351,080,066*
304-6-14OutNo0039779.235,058,887*
293-8-13OutNo029886.023,158,902*
283-7-14OutNo019991.014,722,302*
273-6-15OutNo019994.48,969,992*
263-5-16OutNo010096.65,237,861*
252-7-15OutNo010098.02,916,866*
242-6-16OutNo010098.91,543,712*
232-5-17OutNo010099.4774,238*
221-7-16OutNo010099.7367,459*
211-6-17OutNo010099.8163,239*
201-5-18OutNo010099.966,697*
191-4-19OutNo10099.925,499*
180-6-18OutNo010099.98,727*
12-17OutNo100100.0713,264*
Total:34.3%0.4%1247911131518205.8%5,706,857,760

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Timbers finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPW-D-LWin CupByeRapidsGalaxyReal Salt LakeFC DallasEarthquakesSoundersSporting KCWhitecapsDynamo
67-8412.5%Yes
6617-3-412.61000
6516-5-312.510000
6416-4-412.5100000000
6315-6-312.5100000000000
6215-5-412.5100000000000
6115-4-512.5100000000000
6014-6-412.5100000000000
5914-5-512.599000000000
5814-4-612.498000000000
5713-6-512.397000110000
5613-5-612.293101111110
12-8-412.293101111110
5512-7-511.986112222211
13-4-711.987112222211
5412-6-611.477224343321
13-3-811.477223343321
5312-5-710.664335554432
11-8-510.663436564432
5211-7-69.547548786642
12-4-89.649548776642
5111-6-78.1326510997753
10-9-58.03165109107763
12-3-98.2336610997753
5011-5-86.619661110108864
10-8-66.418761110108864
12-2-106.619761110108864
4910-7-74.78651010108864
11-4-94.99661010108864
9-10-54.88651010108864
4810-6-83.23549887653
9-9-63.13548886653
11-3-103.44559987753
4710-5-92.01336665542
9-8-71.91336664442
8-11-52.01336665542
469-7-81.00224433321
10-4-101.10224433321
459-6-90.50112221111
8-9-70.50112221111
449-5-100.20001111100
438-7-90.10000000000
428-6-100.00000000000
418-5-110.00000000000
407-7-100.00000000000
397-6-110.0000000000
387-5-120.0000000000
376-7-110.0000000000
366-6-120.0000
12-35No
Total:1.8%7.71.41.32.42.42.31.81.81.40.9
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 5/8100.0*Lottery seed
FC Dallas vs Timbers+0.7-0.0-1.5
Toronto FC vs Whitecaps-0.0-0.0+0.1
Whitecaps vs Fire+0.1-0.1-0.1
Rapids vs Sporting KC-0.0-0.0+0.1
Earthquakes vs Dynamo+0.0-0.1+0.0
FC Dallas vs Sounders+0.0-0.1+0.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 5/15100.0*Lottery seed
Timbers vs NYCFC-0.8+0.5+1.1
Sporting KC vs Orlando+0.1-0.1-0.1
Sounders vs Rapids+0.1-0.0-0.0
Fire vs Dynamo-0.0-0.0+0.1
Revolution vs FC Dallas-0.0-0.0+0.1
Sporting KC vs Real Salt Lake+0.0-0.1-0.0

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPW-D-L1234567891011121314151617181920
8424-0-01000
77-79100
7621-1-2991
7520-3-1100
7420-2-21000
7319-4-11000
7219-3-29900
7119-2-39901
7018-4-29801
6918-3-397120
6817-5-296130
6717-4-393250
6617-3-49037000
6516-5-386410000
6416-4-480614000
6315-6-372819010
6215-5-463102502000
6115-4-553123204000
6014-6-441143806000
5914-5-53015431100100
5814-4-620154521602000
5713-6-5121344423030000
5613-5-661138631070000
5512-7-538299371120100
5412-6-615191040220030000
5312-5-702101037429070100
5211-7-6014728736113020000
5111-6-7001417938222050000
5011-5-80002793253201101000
4910-7-70001262183612004000
4810-6-80000310933429010100
4710-5-90000137227351194000
469-7-8000001310932429101000
459-6-90000137227352040000
449-5-1000000141193330112000
438-7-90000013723362261000
428-6-100000014123132154100
417-8-90000002419332711300
407-7-1000000119243223920
397-6-110000031328311951
386-8-100000015183130132
376-7-1100000292535246
366-6-1200000315343512
355-8-11000018274222
345-7-1200003194434
335-6-1300001114047
324-8-1200063459
314-7-1300032770
304-6-1400011979
293-8-130011386
283-7-14000991
273-6-1500694
263-5-1600397
252-7-150298
242-6-160199
232-5-170199
221-7-160100
211-6-170100
201-5-180100
191-4-190100
180-6-180100
170-5-190100
160-4-200100
12-15100
Total:0021315272921010988776