How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 3/6100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Supporters Shield100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
Timbers vs Crew+6.0-4.2-8.7
+0.7-0.5-1.0
+1.6-1.2-2.1
-1.7+1.0+2.7
+0.4-0.3-0.6
Whitecaps vs Impact-0.7+0.5+1.0
-0.1+0.1+0.1
*-0.0+0.1-0.1
-0.0+0.0+0.1
Dynamo vs Revolution-0.7+0.5+1.0
-0.1+0.1+0.1
-0.0+0.1-0.1
-0.0+0.0+0.1
FC Dallas vs Union-0.7+0.5+0.9
-0.1+0.1+0.1
-0.0+0.1-0.1
-0.0+0.0+0.1
Galaxy vs DC United-0.7+0.5+0.9
-0.1+0.1+0.1
-0.0+0.1-0.1
-0.0+0.0+0.1
Orlando vs Real Salt Lake+0.5*-0.0-1.1
+0.1*+0.0-0.1
-0.0+0.1-0.0
+0.0-0.0-0.1
Real Salt Lake vs Sounders-0.2+0.5-0.1
-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.0+0.1-0.1
Rapids vs Galaxy-0.2+0.5-0.1
-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.0+0.1-0.1
Dynamo vs FC Dallas-0.2+0.5-0.1
-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.0+0.1-0.0
Sounders vs Sporting KC-0.2+0.4-0.1
-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.0+0.1-0.1
Earthquakes vs Rapids-0.2+0.4-0.1
-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.0+0.1-0.1
Sporting KC vs Whitecaps-0.2+0.4-0.1
-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.0+0.1-0.0
Impact vs Red Bulls-0.0+0.1-0.1
Revolution vs DC United-0.0+0.1-0.1
Red Bulls vs Toronto FC-0.0+0.1-0.1
Fire vs NYCFC-0.0+0.1-0.1
Crew vs Union-0.0+0.1-0.1
Orlando vs Fire-0.0+0.1-0.1
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 3/13100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Supporters Shield100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
Timbers vs Real Salt Lake+6.5-4.2-9.8
+0.8-0.5-1.2
+1.6-1.2-2.1
-1.7+1.0+2.7
+0.5-0.3-0.7
Earthquakes vs Timbers-5.0+0.6+10.8
-0.6+0.0+1.4
-1.3-0.2+3.2
+1.2-0.2-2.4
-0.4+0.0+0.8
FC Dallas vs Impact-0.7+0.5+1.0
-0.1+0.1+0.1
-0.0+0.1-0.1
-0.0+0.0+0.1
Red Bulls vs Dynamo+0.5*-0.0-1.1
+0.1*+0.0-0.1
-0.0+0.1-0.0
+0.0+0.0-0.1
Sounders vs Whitecaps-0.2+0.5-0.1
-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.0+0.1-0.1
Galaxy vs Earthquakes-0.2+0.4-0.1
-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.0+0.1-0.0
NYCFC vs Orlando-0.0+0.1-0.1
NYCFC vs Toronto FC-0.0+0.1-0.1
Fire vs Crew-0.0+0.1-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Timbers finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inSupportersChance will finish regular season at seedWooden
TPW-D-LplayoffsShield12345678910SpoonCount
76-102In100.0%100No22,495*
7523-6-5In99.91000No3,084*
7423-5-6In99.91000No4,972*
7322-7-5In99.91000No8,618*
7222-6-6In99.81000No14,662*
7121-8-5In99.71000No23,778*
7021-7-6In99.41000No37,718*
6921-6-7In98.91000No59,386*
6820-8-6In98.49910No91,270*
6720-7-7In97.49910No136,872*
6620-6-8In96.09820No201,461*
6519-8-7In93.89820No289,780*
6419-7-8In90.49640No411,284*
6318-9-7In86.194600No571,810*
6218-8-8In80.091800No779,932*
6118-7-9In72.1881200No1,043,017*
6017-9-8In62.38217100No1,370,367*
5917-8-9In51.07622200No1,758,764*
5817-7-10In38.86729400No2,222,578*
5716-9-9In26.858356000No2,756,946*
5616-8-10100.0%16.44741111000No3,356,345*
5515-10-9100.08.53644173000No4,004,820*
5415-9-10100.03.625442561000No4,696,850*
5315-8-11100.01.1164032112000No5,402,608*
5214-10-10100.00.393237184000No6,095,298*
5114-9-1199.90.0523372691000No6,749,770*
5014-8-1299.60.02143233164000No7,331,312*
4913-10-1198.50.01723352581000No7,815,863*
4813-9-1295.6No03143132164000No8,176,999*
4713-8-1389.0No0172234259200No8,397,145*
4612-10-1277.4No00313293218500No8,451,909*
4512-9-1361.0No00162133271020No8,353,363*
4412-8-1442.6No000212283419500.0%8,084,282*
4311-10-1325.9No000152034281010.07,681,268*
4211-9-1413.6No00021129351830.07,149,583*
4110-11-136.1No001521382870.16,523,743*
4010-10-142.4No0002133437130.65,836,171*
3910-9-150.8No00172743222.45,113,752*
389-11-140.2No00031945326.54,389,065*
379-10-150.1No00112424413.73,689,476*
369-9-160.0No0017375524.13,032,258*
358-11-150.0No004306636.52,444,513*
348-10-160.0No002237549.61,924,832*
338-9-17OutNo01178261.81,482,691*
327-11-16OutNo00128872.31,116,505*
317-10-17OutNo0089280.7820,483*
307-9-18OutNo0059587.0590,473*
296-11-17OutNo039791.6412,254*
286-10-18OutNo029894.7282,741*
276-9-19OutNo019996.7188,016*
265-11-18OutNo019998.1123,016*
255-10-19OutNo010098.977,685*
245-9-20OutNo010099.347,686*
234-11-19OutNo010099.628,419*
224-10-20OutNo010099.816,493*
214-9-21OutNo010099.99,276*
0-20OutNo100100.028,963*
Total:60.0%5.0%101010101010101010105.0%151,734,720

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Timbers finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPW-D-LWin CupByeFC DallasGalaxyDynamoEarthquakesSporting KCSoundersWhitecapsReal Salt LakeRapids
64-10212.6%Yes
6318-9-712.6100000
6218-8-812.5100000000000
6118-7-912.5100000000000
6017-9-812.5100000000000
5917-8-912.4100000000000
5817-7-1012.5100000000000
5716-9-912.5100000000000
17-6-1112.5100000000000
5616-8-1012.599000000000
15-11-812.499000000000
5515-10-912.497000000000
16-7-1112.397000000000
5415-9-1012.294111111111
16-6-1212.394111111111
14-12-812.294111111111
5315-8-1111.988111111111
14-11-911.987111111111
16-5-1311.988111111111
5214-10-1011.477222222222
15-7-1211.579222222222
13-13-811.478222222222
5114-9-1110.664444444444
15-6-1310.765444444444
13-12-910.563444444444
5014-8-129.448555555555
13-11-109.346556555555
15-5-149.548555555555
4913-10-117.830777777777
14-7-137.932776777767
12-13-97.730777777777
4813-9-126.017777777777
12-12-105.816777777777
14-6-146.118777777777
4713-8-134.38666666666
12-11-114.17666666666
14-5-154.28666666666
4612-10-122.63555555555
13-7-142.63555555555
4512-9-131.41333333333
4412-8-140.70222222222
4311-10-130.30111111111
4211-9-140.10000000000
4111-8-150.00000000000
4010-10-140.00000000000
3910-9-150.0000000000
3810-8-160.0000000000
379-10-15No00000000
369-9-16No00000
0-35No
Total:5.0%30.02.22.22.22.22.22.22.22.22.2
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 3/6100.0*Lottery seed
Timbers vs Crew-0.9+0.6+1.3
Whitecaps vs Impact+0.1-0.1-0.1
Orlando vs Real Salt Lake-0.0-0.0+0.1
Dynamo vs Revolution+0.1-0.1-0.1
Galaxy vs DC United+0.1-0.1-0.1
FC Dallas vs Union+0.1-0.1-0.1
Real Salt Lake vs Sounders+0.0-0.1+0.0
Rapids vs Galaxy+0.0-0.1+0.0
Dynamo vs FC Dallas+0.0-0.1+0.0
Sounders vs Sporting KC+0.0-0.1+0.0
Sporting KC vs Whitecaps+0.0-0.1+0.0
Earthquakes vs Rapids+0.0-0.1+0.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 3/13100.0*Lottery seed
Timbers vs Real Salt Lake-0.9+0.6+1.4
Earthquakes vs Timbers+0.7-0.1-1.6
FC Dallas vs Impact+0.1-0.1-0.1
Red Bulls vs Dynamo-0.0-0.0+0.1
Sounders vs Whitecaps+0.0-0.1+0.0
Galaxy vs Earthquakes+0.0-0.1+0.0

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPW-D-L1234567891011121314151617181920
80-102100
7925-4-51000
7824-6-4100
7724-5-51000
7623-7-41000
7523-6-510000
7423-5-610000
7322-7-510000
7222-6-610000
7121-8-510000
7021-7-69900
6921-6-79910
6820-8-698110
6720-7-797210
6620-6-896320
6519-8-7944200
6419-7-8906400
6318-9-78686000
6218-8-880118000
6118-7-9721512000
6017-9-862201701000
5917-8-951252212000
5817-7-1039292724000
5716-9-92731324600000
5616-8-10163134711010000
5515-10-9827321217130000
5415-9-1042226182226010000
5315-8-11115172326510020000
5214-10-10098242511171400000
5114-9-110532018182338010000
5014-8-120211392324915140000
4913-10-1101073201817213801000
4813-9-1200311492222915140000
4713-8-13001072201618214920000
4612-10-12000301372221111751000
4512-9-130001062191420221340000
4412-8-140000201152320221130000
4311-10-130000105118132523113000
4211-9-1400002011518282210200
4110-11-1300010529232921820
4010-10-1400002031326301961
3910-9-150001015173129142
389-11-1400000292435256
379-10-1500000315333514
369-9-160000018264124
358-11-1500003174237
348-10-1600001103950
338-9-1700063262
327-11-160032572
317-10-170011881
307-9-18011287
296-11-1700892
286-10-1800595
276-9-190397
265-11-180298
255-10-190199
245-9-200199
234-11-190100
224-10-200100
214-9-210100
204-8-220100
193-10-210100
0-18100
Total:55555555555555555555