How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 7/24100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Supporters Shield100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
Sporting KC 3 Sounders 0 -1.5
-0.1
-0.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 7/31100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Supporters Shield100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
Sporting KC vs Timbers-9.0+2.0+20.7
-0.6+0.0+1.4
-0.0-0.0+0.1
+0.2-0.1-0.3
-0.4+0.1+0.8
Rapids vs Whitecaps+1.4-0.3-4.4
+0.0+0.0-0.2
+0.0-0.0-0.1
FC Dallas vs Whitecaps+1.5-0.2-4.2
+0.0+0.0-0.1
+0.0+0.0-0.1
Earthquakes vs NYCFC-2.1+1.7+3.1
-0.1+0.1+0.1
-0.1+0.1+0.1
Dynamo vs Earthquakes+1.1+0.6-3.0
+0.1+0.0-0.2
+0.0-0.0-0.1
+0.0+0.0-0.1
Real Salt Lake vs Fire-1.4+1.2+2.5
-0.1+0.1+0.2
-0.1+0.0+0.1
-0.1+0.1+0.1
Toronto FC vs Real Salt Lake+1.0-0.1-2.3
+0.1*-0.0-0.3
+0.0-0.0-0.1
Union vs Real Salt Lake+1.0-0.1-2.3
+0.1-0.0-0.3
+0.0-0.0-0.1
Impact vs Dynamo+0.4+0.1-1.3
-0.0+0.0+0.1
+0.0+0.0-0.1
Sounders vs Galaxy-0.8+0.2+0.5
+0.1-0.0-0.0
-0.1+0.0+0.0
Toronto FC vs Crew-0.0+0.0+0.1
Fire vs Red Bulls+0.1-0.0-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Timbers finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inSupportersChance will finish regular season at seedWooden
TPW-D-LplayoffsShield12345678910SpoonCount
6512-0-0In85.6%861400No4,519,665
6311-1-0In69.2702920No338,035
6211-0-1In56.5573850No536,031
6110-2-0In45.24646800No1,761,197
6010-1-1In31.332501610No5,546,558
599-3-0In20.121512630No9,831,024*
589-2-1In11.1124536600No25,661,531
579-1-2In5.1635451300No51,104,582*
568-3-1In1.9324502310No90,507,366*
558-2-2100.0%0.61144736200No177,732,029*
548-1-3100.00.1073948500No289,374,801*
537-3-2100.00.003285811000No460,456,465*
527-2-3100.00.001176120100No729,363,425*
516-4-299.90.00085631400No583,361,277
7-1-499.90.00095730400No440,405,031*
506-3-399.40.0003454110100No1,416,977,280*
496-2-497.9No001324718200No1,274,998,844
5-5-297.9No001304719200No608,865,219*
485-4-393.7No00184530600No1,471,501,883
6-1-594.0No00194529600No825,936,621*
475-3-485.3No009364014100No2,137,466,533
4-6-285.7No009374013100No605,638,209*
465-2-571.7No004254324400No1,843,174,955
4-5-371.1No003244425400No1,264,753,966*
454-4-452.4No011339371000No2,203,341,710
5-1-653.7No01133936900No1,075,808,458*
444-3-533.2No00528452020No2,498,479,015
3-6-333.4No00528452010No859,078,235*
434-2-617.6No00216443450No1,749,630,026
3-5-416.9No00215443450No1,492,676,426*
423-4-56.9No00734461210.0%1,999,284,822
4-1-77.4No00735461110.0926,867,343*
413-3-62.2No00222512320.01,839,983,698
2-6-42.2No00222522220.0700,391,426*
403-2-70.6No00111473550.01,074,191,293
2-5-50.5No00011493550.0991,816,462*
392-4-60.1No0053846110.01,071,528,628
3-1-80.1No0053846110.0490,102,036*
382-3-70.0No0022652200.3821,856,537
1-6-50.0No0022752190.4301,599,894*
372-2-80.0No0001552331.3407,772,838
1-5-60.0No0001652311.6340,320,295*
361-4-70.0No00846454.7454,613,508*
351-3-80.0No004375911.2258,343,110*
341-2-9OutNo01277121.5132,529,093*
330-4-8OutNo00188234.958,885,997*
320-3-9OutNo00118949.323,303,730*
310-2-10OutNo0069462.57,789,817
300-1-11OutNo039773.41,738,126
290-0-12OutNo019982.44,665,190
Total:45.8%0.0%00210151820191140.4%36,106,410,240

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Timbers finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPW-D-LWin CupByeGalaxyRapidsFC DallasReal Salt LakeSporting KCEarthquakesWhitecapsDynamoSounders
6512-0-012.5%1000000
6311-1-012.51000000
6211-0-112.51000000000
6110-2-012.5100000000000
6010-1-112.599000000000
599-3-012.497000101000
589-2-112.394000312100
579-1-212.087001523200
8-4-012.088001523100
568-3-111.677011945300
9-0-311.676011945300
558-2-211.0621121468400
7-5-011.0631131468400
548-1-310.247124201010600
7-4-110.24712420910600
537-3-29.331236251213810
8-0-49.331235241312910
6-6-09.331236261013700
527-2-38.3183372815141010
6-5-18.218248291315910
516-4-27.093483115151010
7-1-47.293482917141111
5-7-07.19359321416910
506-3-35.833483016141011
5-6-15.833493114151010
7-0-55.943382818131111
496-2-44.613372616131011
5-5-24.51237281413911
485-4-33.30225221210811
6-1-53.40225211410811
4-7-13.30236241111710
475-3-42.2011316107610
4-6-22.101241788510
6-0-62.2021315117611
465-2-51.201121074400
4-5-31.201121064300
454-4-40.60001532200
5-1-60.60001542200
3-7-20.60001632100
444-3-50.20000211100
3-6-30.20000211100
434-2-60.10000110000
3-5-40.10000100000
423-4-50.0000000000
413-3-60.0000000000
403-2-70.0000000000
392-4-60.0000000000
382-3-70.00000000
372-2-8No0
29-36No
Total:1.7%2.30.80.92.18.75.04.13.00.30.2
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 7/24100.0*Lottery seed
Sporting KC 3 Sounders 0 +0.1
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 7/31100.0*Lottery seed
Sporting KC vs Timbers+0.7-0.1-1.6
Earthquakes vs NYCFC+0.1-0.1-0.2
Rapids vs Whitecaps-0.1+0.0+0.2
FC Dallas vs Whitecaps-0.1-0.0+0.2
Union vs Real Salt Lake-0.1-0.0+0.2
Real Salt Lake vs Fire+0.1-0.1-0.1
Toronto FC vs Real Salt Lake-0.1-0.0+0.1
Dynamo vs Earthquakes-0.0-0.0+0.1
Impact vs Dynamo-0.0-0.0+0.1
Sounders vs Galaxy+0.1-0.0-0.0

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPW-D-L1234567891011121314151617181920
6512-0-08601400
6311-1-069029020
6211-0-156038050
6110-2-0451460800
6010-1-13115001610
599-3-020150026030
589-2-1111450360600
579-1-2513504501300
568-3-12124150023010
558-2-210141470360200
548-1-300613904805000
537-3-20021271580110000
527-2-30010161610200100
516-4-20000725413104000
7-1-40000715613004000
506-3-3000021423410100100
496-2-400011275461180200
5-5-200001256461190200
485-4-300001264233006000
6-1-50000146432290600
475-3-40004531639014100
4-6-200004530639113100
465-2-500013178412244000
4-5-300013159413254000
454-4-400015832637101000
5-1-60001773453610000
444-3-500014199422220000
3-6-300014181042223000
434-2-60000278383591000
3-5-400001693636101000
423-4-500001523422361000
4-1-700002524422151000
413-3-600002103434164000
2-6-40000293334174000
403-2-700001320352811200
2-5-500000317343013300
392-4-600017233425910
3-1-800017243524810
382-3-7000021128341940
1-6-5000021028352050
372-2-800004173431121
1-5-600003163432132
361-4-7000172538245
351-3-80000214363711
341-2-90016274521
330-4-80002174635
320-3-900194149
310-2-100043363
300-1-110022573
290-0-12011782
Total:000020821331531714964310