Sporting Kansas City Playoff Chances 50/50

Lost to San Jose 1-4, playoff odds down 7.8 to 52.5%
9 points   2-3-2

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 4/20100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Supporters Shield100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
San Jose 4 Sporting KC 1 -7.6
-0.7
-1.0
+0.9
-0.6
Atlanta 1 FC Dallas 2 -0.8
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
Orlando 1 Vancouver 0 +0.8
+0.0
Columbus 1 Portland 3 -0.7
+0.1
+0.1
Chicago 4 Colorado 1 +0.6
-0.1
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Minnesota vs LA Galaxy-0.8+0.4+0.5
+0.1+0.1-0.1
Seattle vs San Jose+0.4+0.4-0.7
-0.1+0.0+0.1
-0.1-0.0+0.1
LAFC vs Seattle*-0.0+0.2-0.1
-0.0+0.1-0.0
DC United vs NYCFC-0.1+0.0+0.0
-0.1-0.0+0.1
New England vs Montreal+0.1-0.0-0.0
NYCFC vs Chicago+0.1-0.0-0.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 4/27100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Supporters Shield100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
Sporting KC vs New England+8.5-2.3-7.0
+0.8-0.2-0.6
+0.9-0.3-0.7
-1.3+0.1+1.2
+0.6-0.2-0.5
Minnesota vs DC United-1.1+0.3+0.9
-0.1+0.0+0.1
-0.1+0.0+0.1
Toronto FC vs Portland+0.7+0.3-0.9
-0.1+0.0+0.0
-0.1-0.0+0.1
+0.0+0.0-0.1
Vancouver vs Philadelphia-0.9+0.3+0.7
+0.1-0.0-0.1
-0.1+0.0+0.0
LA Galaxy vs RSL+0.6+0.4-0.8
-0.1+0.0+0.1
Houston vs Columbus-0.7+0.2+0.6
-0.1+0.0+0.1
-0.1+0.0+0.0
Atlanta vs Colorado+0.5+0.2-0.6
-0.1-0.1+0.2
FC Dallas vs San Jose+0.2+0.5-0.5
-0.1+0.0+0.0
-0.1+0.0+0.0
-0.1-0.0+0.1
Colorado vs Vancouver+0.1+0.5-0.4
+0.1-0.1-0.1
Seattle vs LAFC-0.1+0.2-0.0
-0.0+0.1-0.0
Philadelphia vs Cincinnati-0.1-0.0+0.1
NYCFC vs Orlando+0.1-0.0-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Sporting KC finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inSupportersChance will finish regular season at seedWooden
TPW-D-LplayoffsShield123456789101112SpoonCount
77-90InYes100No35,136*
7621-4-2In99.8%1000No1,265*
7521-3-3In99.61000No2,548*
7420-5-2In99.3991No4,820*
7320-4-3In99.1991No8,480*
7220-3-4In98.59910No15,702*
7119-5-3In97.79820No27,283*
7019-4-4In96.59730No46,941*
6919-3-5In94.59640No76,912*
6818-5-4In91.79460No124,851*
6718-4-5In87.891900No197,144*
6617-6-4In82.5871300No304,445*
6517-5-5In75.7811810No457,232*
6417-4-6In67.5752320No675,398*
6316-6-5In57.66729400No971,202*
6216-5-6In46.75935600No1,365,550*
6116-4-7In35.2494010100No1,878,847*
6015-6-6In24.4394415200No2,531,805*
5915-5-7In15.22945224000No3,343,421*
5814-7-6In8.22042298100No4,318,821*
5714-6-7100.0%3.8133735132000No5,465,662*
5614-5-8100.01.472938205000No6,778,338*
5513-7-7100.00.442137289100No8,233,325*
5413-6-8100.00.12133234164000No9,799,746*
5313-5-999.90.01724362481000No11,429,764*
5212-7-899.70.003163331143000No13,055,508*
5112-6-999.10.00192535227100No14,622,427*
5012-5-1097.2No004173330133000No16,043,339*
4911-7-992.8No00192634226100No17,256,184*
4811-6-1084.7No0004173330132000No18,186,885*
4710-8-972.1No000292634216100No18,778,952*
4610-7-1056.0No000418333012200No18,996,239*
4510-6-1139.0No000210273520510No18,815,051*
449-8-1024.1No00151934291120No18,265,843*
439-7-1113.1No00211293519400.0%17,351,738*
429-6-126.3No0016213627810.016,144,641*
418-8-112.6No00021433341520.014,700,548*
408-7-121.0No001826382340.113,096,787*
398-6-130.3No000418383180.411,406,459*
387-8-120.1No0002123439141.49,714,784*
377-7-130.0No00172844214.08,092,433*
367-6-140.0No00042146308.86,578,122*
356-8-130.0No00214443916.35,225,393*
346-7-140.0No0019414926.44,044,190*
336-6-15OutNo006355937.93,055,580*
325-8-14OutNo003296849.82,249,645*
315-7-15OutNo002237561.21,610,071*
305-6-16OutNo01178271.11,122,542*
294-8-15OutNo00138779.2759,795*
284-7-16OutNo0099185.5499,470*
274-6-17OutNo069490.3318,554*
263-8-16OutNo049693.5195,947*
253-7-17OutNo039795.9116,726*
243-6-18OutNo029897.466,761*
233-5-19OutNo19998.536,722*
222-7-18OutNo19999.119,994*
212-6-19OutNo010099.410,030*
202-5-20OutNo010099.64,841*
191-7-19OutNo010099.92,138*
9-18OutNo100100.035,567*
Total:52.5%1.6%346891111121110962.7%328,574,544

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Sporting KC finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPW-D-LWin CupByeLA GalaxyLAFCSeattleFC DallasHoustonMinnesotaRSLSan JosePortlandVancouverColorado
68-9012.5%Yes
6718-4-512.61000
6617-6-412.51000000000
6517-5-512.510000000000000
6417-4-612.510000000000000
6316-6-512.510000000000000
6216-5-612.510000000000000
6116-4-712.49900000000000
6015-6-612.49800000000000
5915-5-712.29511111000000
14-8-512.29511111000000
5814-7-611.99111111110000
15-4-812.09211111110000
5714-6-711.58422222211000
15-3-911.58522222111000
5614-5-810.97533344221110
13-8-610.87433444221110
5513-7-79.96055565432110
14-4-910.16255555432110
5413-6-88.94667777543211
12-9-68.84577777543211
14-3-109.14966677543211
5313-5-97.73288898653221
12-8-77.63088898653221
14-2-117.83388898653221
5212-7-86.31888899654221
13-4-106.52088899654221
11-10-66.31988899654221
5112-6-95.01078888654221
11-9-74.9978898654221
13-3-115.21188898654221
5012-5-103.7566677543221
11-8-83.5466677543221
10-11-63.7566677543221
4911-7-92.3144455432111
12-4-112.6255555432211
10-10-72.4144455432111
4811-6-101.4033333221110
10-9-81.4033333221110
4711-5-110.7011122111000
4610-7-100.3011111000000
4510-6-110.1000000000000
4410-5-120.0000000000000
439-7-110.000000000000
429-6-120.000000000000
419-5-130.000000000000
408-7-120.00000000000
397-9-110.00000
389-2-16No0
9-37No
Total:2.7%13.32.22.22.22.52.41.71.51.00.70.60.3
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 4/20100.0*Lottery seed
San Jose 4 Sporting KC 1 +1.1
Atlanta 1 FC Dallas 2 +0.1
Columbus 1 Portland 3 +0.1
Orlando 1 Vancouver 0 -0.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 4/27100.0*Lottery seed
Sporting KC vs New England-1.3+0.3+1.1
Minnesota vs DC United+0.1-0.0-0.1
Houston vs Columbus+0.1-0.0-0.1
Toronto FC vs Portland-0.0-0.0+0.1
Vancouver vs Philadelphia+0.1-0.0-0.0
FC Dallas vs San Jose+0.0-0.1+0.0

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPW-D-L123456789101112131415161718192021222324
77-90100
7621-4-21000
7521-3-310000
7420-5-29901
7320-4-39901
7220-3-499010
7119-5-398120
7019-4-496130
6919-3-594140
6818-5-492260
6718-4-58839000
6617-6-482413000
6517-5-576618010
6417-4-668823020
6316-6-558102904000
6216-5-647123406000
6116-4-73514391100100
6015-6-624144221502000
5915-5-7151441422040000
5814-7-681236628080100
5714-6-74928934113020000
5614-5-816191135320050000
5513-7-703101132527090100
5413-6-8024923932216040000
5313-5-901161311314240801000
5212-7-8000361024830114030000
5112-6-9000127141130422070100
5012-5-10000045112492921303000
4911-7-90000118131329521061000
4811-6-100000045132211282133000
4710-8-90000021911162772071000
4610-7-100000043141914261430000
4510-6-110000021991825231020000
449-8-10000005316172721920000
439-7-1100021118212720920000
429-6-1200010621123271992000
418-8-110000214132427198200
408-7-12000101515262717610
398-6-13000000271828271440
387-8-120000002922312491
377-7-130000014132832184
367-6-1400000172034289
356-8-1300000313313716
346-7-140000017244226
336-6-150003174238
325-8-14001103950
315-7-1500063361
305-6-1600032671
294-8-150011979
284-7-160011485
274-6-1700990
263-8-1600694
253-7-170496
243-6-180397
233-5-19298
222-7-18199
212-6-19199
202-5-200100
191-7-190100
181-6-200100
9-17100
Total:213142526374747655554443