Saint Louis FC Playoff Chances 2020-1 50/50

Lost to Memphis 0-1, playoff odds down 9.6 to 56.7%

9 points 3-0-2

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 7/31	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Saint Louis vs Kansas City II	+14.2-1.5-13.2		+0.3-0.0-0.3

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 8/7	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Saint Louis vs Tulsa	+10.6-3.0-8.6		+0.3-0.1-0.2
Louisville vs Kansas City II	-0.7+3.2-1.4		-0.0+0.1-0.0
Louisville vs Indy	-2.0+1.7+0.9		-0.0+0.1-0.0

What If

Chances based on how well the Saint Louis finish out the regular season. Explain

									100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W	-	D	-	L	playoffs		1	2	3	4	5	Count

40	-42						In		100					2,119,736	*
39		10	-	0	-	1	In		100	0				2,017,437
38		9	-	2	-	0	In		100	0				4,359,850
37		9	-	1	-	1	In		100	0				13,256,106
36		9	-	0	-	2	In		100	0				18,671,338	*
35		8	-	2	-	1	In		99	1				39,196,813
34		8	-	1	-	2	In		98	2				70,892,595	*
33		7	-	3	-	1	100.0	%	97	3	0			98,899,232	*
32		7	-	2	-	2	100.0		94	6	0			167,106,847	*
31		7	-	1	-	3	100.0		87	13	0			158,793,084
		6	-	4	-	1	100.0		90	10	0			79,076,675
30		6	-	3	-	2	100.0		82	18	0			240,417,417
		7	-	0	-	4	99.9		79	21	0			67,218,278	*
29		6	-	2	-	3	99.9		71	29	0			365,460,068
		5	-	5	-	1	100.0		74	26	0			62,398,536
28		6	-	1	-	4	98.9		55	44	1			277,840,294
		5	-	4	-	2	99.6		60	40	0			240,365,261	*
27		5	-	3	-	3	97.7		44	54	2	0		480,709,199
		6	-	0	-	5	95.4		37	58	5	0		84,493,973
		4	-	6	-	1	99.1		48	51	1			34,198,067
26		5	-	2	-	4	91.6		26	66	8	0		548,147,449
		4	-	5	-	2	95.0		30	65	5	0		157,046,674	*
25		4	-	4	-	3	84.1		15	69	16	0		395,196,180
		5	-	1	-	5	77.6		12	66	22	0		346,229,775	*
24		4	-	3	-	4	65.2		5	60	34	1		600,872,541
		5	-	0	-	6	56.4		3	53	41	3		84,486,300
		3	-	6	-	2	74.1		7	67	25	0		68,618,261	*
23		4	-	2	-	5	41.1		1	40	53	6		548,156,006
		3	-	5	-	3	50.0		2	48	46	4		211,105,820	*
22		3	-	4	-	4	27.5		0	27	59	13		395,218,011
		4	-	1	-	6	21.7		0	22	60	18		297,168,007	*
21		3	-	3	-	5	12.1		0	12	59	29		480,710,094
		2	-	6	-	3	17.0		0	17	60	23		68,395,044
		4	-	0	-	7	8.7		0	9	56	35		60,833,455	*
20		3	-	2	-	6	4.1		0	4	47	49		365,471,517
		2	-	5	-	4	6.4		0	6	51	42		159,149,588	*
19		2	-	4	-	5	1.8			2	36	62		237,150,064
		3	-	1	-	7	1.2			1	32	67		171,671,086	*
18		2	-	3	-	6	0.3			0	22	78		240,405,399
		1	-	6	-	4	0.4			0	22	77		64,627,603	*
17		2	-	2	-	7	0.0			0	11	89		156,722,225
		1	-	5	-	5	0.1			0	14	86		63,449,083	*
16		1	-	4	-	6	0.0			0	6	94		79,072,434
		2	-	1	-	8	0.0			0	5	95		62,803,624	*
15		1	-	3	-	7	0.0			0	2	98		85,621,144	*
14		1	-	2	-	8	0.0			0	1	99		49,588,738	*
13		1	-	1	-	9	Out				0	100		24,541,067	*
12		0	-	3	-	8	Out				0	100		10,615,042	*
11		0	-	2	-	9	Out				0	100		4,359,586
9	-10						Out					100		2,119,147	*

Total:							56.7	%	24	33	25	19		8,547,041,770

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 7/31	100.0*	Lottery seed
Saint Louis vs Kansas City II	-3.0+0.6+2.6

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 8/7	100.0*	Lottery seed
Saint Louis vs Tulsa	-2.7+0.7+2.3
Louisville vs Indy	-0.0-0.2+0.2
Louisville vs Kansas City II	+0.1-0.2+0.1

What If

						100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance will finish season at seed
TP	W	-	D	-	L	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32	33	34	35

42	11	-	0	-	0	100	0
40	10	-	1	-	0	99	1	0
39	10	-	0	-	1	99	1	0						0
38	9	-	2	-	0	97	3	0	0					0
37	9	-	1	-	1	95	5	0	0					0
36	9	-	0	-	2	91	9	0	0	0				0	0
35	8	-	2	-	1	83	16	1	0	0	0			1	0
34	8	-	1	-	2	72	23	3	0	0	0	0		2	0
33	7	-	3	-	1	56	32	8	1	0	0	0	0	3	0	0						0
32	7	-	2	-	2	38	37	15	3	0	0	0	0	6	0	0						0
31	7	-	1	-	3	23	35	21	7	1	0	0	0	12	0	0	0					0	0
	6	-	4	-	1	18	33	25	10	2	0	0	0	10	0	0	0					0
30	6	-	3	-	2	8	23	27	17	6	1	0	0	16	1	0	0	0				0	0
	7	-	0	-	4	11	26	25	12	4	1	0	0	21	1	0	0					0	0
29	6	-	2	-	3	3	12	21	20	11	3	1	0	24	4	0	0	0	0			0	0
	5	-	5	-	1	1	8	19	22	15	6	1	0	20	5	0	0	0	0			0	0
28	6	-	1	-	4	1	4	11	17	14	7	2	0	31	12	2	0	0	0			1	0	0
	5	-	4	-	2	0	2	9	16	17	11	4	0	24	13	2	0	0	0	0		0	0	0
27	5	-	3	-	3	0	0	2	7	13	13	7	2	21	22	9	2	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0
	6	-	0	-	5	0	1	3	8	12	9	4	1	29	23	6	1	0	0	0		5	0	0	0
26	5	-	2	-	4	0	0	0	2	5	9	8	3	13	26	19	7	1	0	0	0	8	1	0	0	0
	4	-	5	-	2	0	0	0	1	4	9	11	5	7	22	22	11	3	0	0	0	4	1	0	0	0
25	4	-	4	-	3	0	0	0	0	1	3	6	5	2	11	22	21	10	3	0	0	11	4	1	0	0	0	0
	5	-	1	-	5	0	0	0	0	1	3	5	3	4	16	23	16	6	1	0	0	17	5	0	0	0	0
24	4	-	3	-	4		0	0	0	0	0	2	3	0	2	10	18	18	9	2	0	15	14	5	1	0	0	0	0
	5	-	0	-	6		0	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	4	12	18	13	5	1	0	23	16	4	1	0	0	0
	3	-	6	-	2			0	0	0	0	2	5	0	1	6	16	22	16	5	1	9	11	5	1	0	0	0	0
23	4	-	2	-	5				0	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	6	12	13	6	1	11	22	17	7	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
	3	-	5	-	3				0	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	4	12	17	12	3	6	15	16	9	3	1	0	0	0	0	0
22	3	-	4	-	4					0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	8	11	6	2	9	18	21	15	7	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
	4	-	1	-	6					0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	3	7	8	3	4	15	24	21	11	4	1	0	0	0	0	0
21	3	-	3	-	5						0	0	0		0	0	0	0	2	5	6	0	2	7	16	22	20	13	6	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
	2	-	6	-	3							0	0			0	0	0	1	6	10	0	1	3	9	17	21	17	10	4	1	0	0	0	0	0
	4	-	0	-	7							0	0		0	0	0	0	2	4	3	0	3	12	22	25	18	8	3	1	0	0	0	0	0
20	3	-	2	-	6								0			0	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	1	4	11	20	23	19	11	5	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
	2	-	5	-	4								0				0	0	0	1	5	0	0	0	2	5	12	19	22	17	10	4	1	0	0	0	0	0
19	2	-	4	-	5													0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	1	3	7	15	21	22	17	9	4	1	0	0	0	0	0
	3	-	1	-	7													0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	2	6	13	20	23	18	11	5	1	0	0	0	0	0
18	2	-	3	-	6													0	0	0	0		0	0	0	0	0	1	4	10	17	22	21	14	7	2	1	0	0	0
	1	-	6	-	4														0	0	0		0	0	0	0	0	1	4	9	16	21	21	15	8	3	1	0	0	0
17	2	-	2	-	7														0	0	0				0	0	0	0	0	2	6	13	21	24	19	10	4	1	0	0
	1	-	5	-	5															0	0				0	0	0	0	0	1	3	7	15	23	23	17	8	2	0	0
16	1	-	4	-	6															0	0					0	0	0	0	0	1	2	7	16	23	24	17	8	2	0
15	1	-	3	-	7																0							0	0	0	0	0	1	5	13	23	27	20	9	2
14	1	-	2	-	8																0									0	0	0	0	1	4	13	25	30	20	6
13	1	-	1	-	9																										0	0	0	0	1	5	15	30	33	16
12	0	-	3	-	8																											0	0	0	0	1	6	21	40	32
11	0	-	2	-	9																												0	0	0	0	2	13	38	47
10	0	-	1	-	10																														0	0	1	6	31	62
9	0	-	0	-	11																															0	0	2	22	75

Total:						4	4	4	4	3	3	2	1	7	6	5	4	4	3	2	1	4	5	4	4	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	0	0