Saint Louis FC Playoff Chances 2020-1

Lost to Memphis 0-1, playoff odds down 11.7 to 80.7%

9 points 3-0-2

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 7/31	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Saint Louis vs Kansas City II	+6.8-3.1-12.2		+0.2-0.1-0.3

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 8/7	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Saint Louis vs Tulsa	+5.6-3.5-7.8		+0.1-0.1-0.2
Louisville vs Indy	-4.5+1.2+2.7
Louisville vs Kansas City II	-1.9+3.1+0.5

What If

Chances based on how well the Saint Louis finish out the regular season. Explain

									100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W	-	D	-	L	playoffs		1	2	3	4	5	Count

40	-42						In		100					20,671,611	*
39		10	-	0	-	1	In		100	0				22,658,999
38		9	-	2	-	0	In		100	0				48,750,909
37		9	-	1	-	1	In		99	1				133,549,912
36		9	-	0	-	2	In		95	5				89,861,064
		8	-	3	-	0	In		99	1				86,525,591
35		8	-	2	-	1	In		94	6				350,764,210
34		8	-	1	-	2	In		85	15				465,809,698
		7	-	4	-	0	In		92	8				101,378,847
33		7	-	3	-	1	In		82	18				540,836,808
		8	-	0	-	3	100.0	%	74	26	0			202,684,402
32		7	-	2	-	2	100.0		69	31	0			1,146,500,011	*
31		7	-	1	-	3	100.0		53	47	0			915,340,964
		6	-	4	-	1	100.0		61	39	0			542,600,353
30		6	-	3	-	2	100.0		46	54	0			1,406,974,940
		7	-	0	-	4	99.9		41	59	0			337,971,956	*
29		6	-	2	-	3	99.9		31	69	0			1,795,618,695
		5	-	5	-	1	100.0		36	64	0			370,273,501
28		5	-	4	-	2	99.6		23	76	0			1,187,227,112
		6	-	1	-	4	99.0		19	80	1			1,147,717,867	*
27		5	-	3	-	3	98.1		13	85	2	0		1,999,517,645
		6	-	0	-	5	96.5		10	86	4	0		279,502,759
		4	-	6	-	1	99.2		16	83	1			174,197,485
26		5	-	2	-	4	93.9		6	88	6	0		1,866,684,282
		4	-	5	-	2	96.2		8	88	4	0		668,751,020	*
25		4	-	4	-	3	89.6		3	87	10	0		1,383,030,196
		5	-	1	-	5	85.7		2	83	14	0		972,420,330	*
24		4	-	3	-	4	78.3		1	77	21	0		1,705,981,840
		3	-	6	-	2	83.6		1	82	16	0		245,548,798
		5	-	0	-	6	72.4		1	72	27	1		186,146,273	*
23		4	-	2	-	5	61.8		0	62	37	1		1,246,045,784
		3	-	5	-	3	68.6		0	68	31	1		620,382,055	*
22		3	-	4	-	4	50.2		0	50	46	4		930,649,198
		4	-	1	-	6	44.1		0	44	51	5		557,548,525	*
21		3	-	3	-	5	31.1		0	31	59	10		899,199,668
		2	-	6	-	3	37.6		0	38	55	8		166,557,262
		4	-	0	-	7	25.1		0	25	61	14		86,216,235	*
20		3	-	2	-	6	15.1		0	15	61	23		536,564,818
		2	-	5	-	4	20.2		0	20	61	19		311,126,393	*
19		2	-	4	-	5	8.2			8	56	36		363,363,195
		3	-	1	-	7	6.0			6	53	41		206,925,080	*
18		2	-	3	-	6	2.4			2	42	56		368,653,293	*
17		2	-	2	-	7	0.5			0	26	73		224,045,681	*
16		1	-	4	-	6	0.1			0	14	86		122,631,932	*
15		1	-	3	-	7	0.0			0	6	94		63,300,306	*
14		1	-	2	-	8	0.0			0	2	98		30,230,853	*
13		0	-	4	-	7	Out				0	100		12,367,448	*
12		0	-	3	-	8	Out				0	100		4,515,332	*
11		0	-	2	-	9	Out				0	100		1,474,639
9	-10						Out					100		2,299,765	*

Total:							80.7	%	22	59	15	4		27,149,595,540

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 7/31	100.0*	Lottery seed
Saint Louis vs Kansas City II	-1.5+1.0+2.3

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 8/7	100.0*	Lottery seed
Saint Louis vs Tulsa	-1.5+1.0+2.1
Louisville vs Indy	-0.0-0.2+0.1
Louisville vs Kansas City II	+0.1-0.2-0.0

What If

						100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance will finish season at seed
TP	W	-	D	-	L	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32	33	34	35

42	11	-	0	-	0	99	1	0
40	10	-	1	-	0	95	5	0	0	0
39	10	-	0	-	1	92	8	0	0	0				0
38	9	-	2	-	0	82	16	1	0	0	0			0	0
37	9	-	1	-	1	73	23	3	0	0	0	0		1	0
36	9	-	0	-	2	58	31	7	1	0	0	0	0	3	0
35	8	-	2	-	1	41	37	14	3	0	0	0	0	6	0	0
34	8	-	1	-	2	26	34	19	6	1	0	0	0	15	0	0	0
	7	-	4	-	0	22	36	24	9	2	0	0	0	8	0	0
33	7	-	3	-	1	11	26	26	13	4	1	0	0	18	0	0	0
	8	-	0	-	3	13	26	22	10	2	0	0	0	26	0	0	0					0
32	7	-	2	-	2	4	15	22	17	8	2	0	0	29	1	0	0	0				0
31	7	-	1	-	3	1	7	14	16	10	4	1	0	42	4	0	0	0				0	0
	6	-	4	-	1	1	5	14	18	14	6	2	0	34	5	0	0	0				0
30	6	-	3	-	2	0	2	6	12	14	9	3	0	41	12	1	0	0	0	0		0	0
	7	-	0	-	4	0	2	6	11	12	7	2	0	47	11	1	0	0	0			0	0
29	6	-	2	-	3	0	0	2	5	9	9	5	1	40	23	5	0	0	0	0		0	0	0
	5	-	5	-	1	0	0	1	4	9	12	8	2	32	24	7	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
28	5	-	4	-	2	0	0	0	1	4	7	8	3	24	32	16	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	6	-	1	-	4	0	0	0	1	4	6	5	2	31	33	13	2	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0
27	5	-	3	-	3	0	0	0	0	1	3	5	3	12	31	28	12	2	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0
	6	-	0	-	5	0	0	0	0	1	3	4	2	17	34	25	8	1	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0
	4	-	6	-	1	0	0	0	0	1	3	6	6	8	26	29	16	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0
26	5	-	2	-	4		0	0	0	0	1	2	3	4	19	31	23	9	2	0	0	5	1	0	0	0	0
	4	-	5	-	2		0	0	0	0	1	3	4	2	14	28	27	13	3	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	0
25	4	-	4	-	3			0	0	0	0	1	2	0	5	17	28	24	10	2	0	5	4	1	0	0	0	0	0
	5	-	1	-	5		0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	7	21	28	19	6	1	0	9	5	1	0	0	0	0
24	4	-	3	-	4			0	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	6	18	26	19	7	1	7	9	4	1	0	0	0	0
	3	-	6	-	2				0	0	0	0	1	0	0	3	14	26	25	11	2	4	7	4	1	0	0	0	0	0
	5	-	0	-	6				0	0	0	0	0	0	1	8	20	24	14	4	0	11	12	4	1	0	0	0
23	4	-	2	-	5					0	0	0	0	0	0	1	6	17	22	13	3	6	14	12	5	1	0	0	0	0	0
	3	-	5	-	3					0	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	14	24	20	6	3	9	11	6	2	0	0	0	0	0
22	3	-	4	-	4						0	0	0	0	0	0	1	5	14	20	10	1	7	14	15	9	3	1	0	0	0	0	0
	4	-	1	-	6						0	0	0	0	0	0	1	6	14	16	7	2	11	18	15	7	2	0	0	0	0	0
21	3	-	3	-	5							0	0		0	0	0	1	5	13	12	0	3	10	18	19	12	5	1	0	0	0	0	0
	2	-	6	-	3							0	0		0	0	0	0	4	15	18	0	1	6	13	17	14	7	3	1	0	0	0	0	0
20	3	-	2	-	6								0			0	0	0	1	5	9	0	1	3	11	20	22	16	8	3	1	0	0	0	0	0
	2	-	5	-	4								0			0	0	0	1	6	14	0	0	2	6	14	20	19	12	5	1	0	0	0	0	0
19	2	-	4	-	5												0	0	0	1	7	0	0	0	1	5	13	21	22	16	8	3	1	0	0	0	0	0
	3	-	1	-	7												0	0	0	1	5	0	0	0	2	8	17	23	21	13	6	2	0	0	0	0	0
18	2	-	3	-	6													0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	1	4	10	18	23	21	13	6	2	0	0	0	0	0
17	2	-	2	-	7														0	0	0		0	0	0	0	0	2	6	14	22	24	18	9	3	1	0	0	0	0
16	1	-	4	-	6														0	0	0				0	0	0	0	1	4	10	19	25	22	13	5	1	0	0	0
15	1	-	3	-	7															0	0					0	0	0	0	0	2	7	16	25	25	16	6	1	0	0
14	1	-	2	-	8																0						0	0	0	0	0	2	6	15	26	27	17	6	1	0
13	0	-	4	-	7																								0	0	0	0	1	6	16	27	28	17	5	1
12	0	-	3	-	8																										0	0	0	1	6	18	31	29	13	2
11	0	-	2	-	9																										0	0	0	0	2	9	24	35	24	6
10	0	-	1	-	10																												0	0	0	3	15	33	35	13
9	0	-	0	-	11																													0	0	1	7	25	42	26

Total:						3	3	4	3	3	3	2	1	14	11	9	8	7	5	4	2	2	3	3	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0