Reno 1868 FC Playoff Chances 2020-1 50/50

Beat Las Vegas 1-0, playoff odds up 9.1 to 82.1%

9 points 3-0-1

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 7/31	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Portland II vs Tacoma	-0.0+1.6-1.0

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 8/7	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Reno vs Sacramento	+8.9-0.3-8.6		+0.3-0.0-0.2
Reno vs Tacoma	+8.8-0.3-8.6		+0.3-0.0-0.2
Las Vegas vs Tacoma	+2.1+0.9-2.6		+0.1+0.0-0.1
Portland II vs Sacramento	+0.1+1.4-1.0

What If

Chances based on how well the Reno finish out the regular season. Explain

									100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W	-	D	-	L	playoffs		1	2	3	4	5	Count

38	-45						In		100					38,528,615	*
37		9	-	1	-	2	In		100	0				36,276,095	*
36		8	-	3	-	1	In		100	0				53,935,749	*
35		8	-	2	-	2	In		100	0				95,172,882	*
34		8	-	1	-	3	In		100	0				89,659,431
		7	-	4	-	1	In		100	0				51,003,652
33		7	-	3	-	2	In		100	0				155,087,455
		8	-	0	-	4	In		100	0				39,220,551	*
32		7	-	2	-	3	In		100	0				235,769,910
		6	-	5	-	1	In		100	0				46,957,744
31		7	-	1	-	4	100.0	%	99	1	0			179,235,131
		6	-	4	-	2	100.0		99	1	0			181,390,598	*
30		6	-	3	-	3	100.0		98	2	0			361,794,991
		7	-	0	-	5	100.0		98	2	0			85,380,739	*
29		6	-	2	-	4	100.0		95	5	0			412,554,977
		5	-	5	-	2	100.0		97	3	0			142,030,335	*
28		5	-	4	-	3	100.0		92	8	0			356,867,348
		6	-	1	-	5	100.0		90	10	0			265,406,430	*
27		5	-	3	-	4	99.9		84	16	0			542,597,298
		4	-	6	-	2	100.0		89	11	0			77,199,113
		6	-	0	-	6	99.8		80	20	0			63,930,108	*
26		5	-	2	-	5	99.5		72	27	1			495,024,991
		4	-	5	-	3	99.7		78	22	0			239,499,578	*
25		4	-	4	-	4	98.6		62	36	1			475,178,221	*
		5	-	1	-	6	97.7		56	42	2	0		250,900,380
24		4	-	3	-	5	94.9		43	52	5	0		542,583,651
		3	-	6	-	3	96.8		50	47	3	0		102,912,196
		5	-	0	-	7	92.7		37	56	7	0		55,549,197	*
23		4	-	2	-	6	85.7		24	61	14	0		412,559,848
		3	-	5	-	4	89.5		30	59	11	0		241,907,206	*
22		3	-	4	-	5	74.2		14	61	25	0		356,917,129
		4	-	1	-	7	70.1		11	59	29	1		208,388,057	*
21		3	-	3	-	6	51.9		4	48	45	3		361,802,297
		2	-	6	-	4	54.6		5	50	43	2		112,312,236	*
20		3	-	2	-	7	28.6		1	28	61	11		235,771,822
		2	-	5	-	5	34.4		1	33	58	8		145,627,865	*
19		2	-	4	-	6	15.3		0	15	63	21		178,455,538
		3	-	1	-	8	12.9		0	13	63	24		104,219,386	*
18		2	-	3	-	7	5.2		0	5	55	40		155,104,984
		1	-	6	-	5	5.8		0	6	56	38		46,388,649	*
17		2	-	2	-	8	1.3		0	1	40	59		88,466,501
		1	-	5	-	6	1.8		0	2	43	55		48,150,712	*
16		1	-	4	-	7	0.3			0	27	73		83,791,550	*
15		1	-	3	-	8	0.0			0	16	84		48,469,769	*
14		1	-	2	-	9	0.0			0	8	92		26,371,619	*
13		0	-	4	-	8	0.0			0	4	96		12,362,626	*
12		0	-	3	-	9	Out				2	98		5,136,743	*
11		0	-	2	-	10	Out				1	99		1,969,234
10		0	-	1	-	11	Out				0	100		544,369
9		0	-	0	-	12	Out				0	100		676,264

Total:							82.1	%	57	25	13	5		8,547,041,770

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 7/31	100.0*	Lottery seed
Portland II vs Tacoma	-0.0-0.2+0.2

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 8/7	100.0*	Lottery seed
Reno vs Sacramento	-2.7+0.4+2.4
Reno vs Tacoma	-2.6+0.4+2.3
Las Vegas vs Tacoma	-0.3-0.1+0.4
Portland II vs Sacramento	-0.0-0.2+0.2

What If

						100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance will finish season at seed
TP	W	-	D	-	L	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32	33	34	35

45	12	-	0	-	0	100	0
43	11	-	1	-	0	100	0
42	11	-	0	-	1	100	0	0
41	10	-	2	-	0	100	0	0
40	10	-	1	-	1	99	1	0
39	10	-	0	-	2	99	1	0	0
38	9	-	2	-	1	97	3	0	0
37	9	-	1	-	2	94	5	0	0	0				0
36	8	-	3	-	1	89	10	0	0	0				0
35	8	-	2	-	2	81	17	2	0	0	0	0		0	0
34	8	-	1	-	3	69	26	4	0	0	0	0		0	0
33	7	-	3	-	2	53	35	10	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
32	7	-	2	-	3	36	40	19	5	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
31	7	-	1	-	4	23	38	26	10	2	0	0	0	1	0	0	0					0
	6	-	4	-	2	17	34	30	14	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	0					0
30	6	-	3	-	3	7	24	32	23	10	2	0	0	2	0	0	0	0				0
	7	-	0	-	5	9	25	31	21	9	2	0	0	2	0	0	0					0
29	6	-	2	-	4	2	12	25	28	18	7	1	0	4	1	0	0	0	0			0	0
	5	-	5	-	2	1	8	21	29	24	11	3	0	2	1	0	0	0	0			0
28	5	-	4	-	3	0	2	10	22	28	21	8	1	4	3	1	0	0	0	0		0	0	0
	6	-	1	-	5	0	4	14	25	26	15	5	1	7	3	1	0	0	0	0		0	0
27	5	-	3	-	4	0	0	3	10	22	27	17	4	5	6	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	4	-	6	-	2	0	0	1	6	19	30	24	8	3	5	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	6	-	0	-	6	0	1	5	14	24	23	11	2	9	8	3	0	0	0	0		0	0	0
26	5	-	2	-	5	0	0	0	3	11	23	25	11	4	9	9	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	4	-	5	-	3	0	0	0	1	7	21	31	18	2	6	8	5	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
25	4	-	4	-	4	0	0	0	0	1	8	25	27	1	4	9	12	8	3	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
	5	-	1	-	6	0	0	0	0	3	11	23	20	1	7	13	12	6	2	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0
24	4	-	3	-	5		0	0	0	0	2	12	29	0	1	5	13	17	12	4	0	2	2	1	0	0	0	0	0
	3	-	6	-	3			0	0	0	2	11	32	0	1	5	11	15	12	5	1	2	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
23	4	-	2	-	6			0	0	0	0	4	20	0	0	1	6	16	22	13	3	2	5	4	2	1	0	0	0	0	0
	3	-	5	-	4				0	0	0	3	27	0	0	0	2	10	21	19	7	1	3	3	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
22	3	-	4	-	5					0	0	0	13	0	0	0	0	3	13	26	19	0	2	5	7	6	3	1	0	0	0	0	0
	4	-	1	-	7					0	0	1	9	0	0	0	1	6	18	23	10	1	5	9	9	5	2	0	0	0	0	0
21	3	-	3	-	6						0	0	4		0	0	0	0	4	17	26	0	1	3	8	12	12	8	4	1	0	0	0	0	0
	2	-	6	-	4						0	0	6			0	0	0	2	15	36	0	0	1	4	7	10	9	6	3	1	0	0	0	0	0
20	3	-	2	-	7						0	0	1				0	0	1	6	21	0	0	0	2	7	13	17	15	10	5	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
	2	-	5	-	5							0	1				0	0	0	4	29	0	0	0	1	3	7	12	15	14	9	4	1	0	0	0	0	0
19	2	-	4	-	6							0	0					0	0	1	15	0	0	0	0	0	1	5	10	16	19	16	10	4	1	0	0	0	0	0
	3	-	1	-	8								0				0	0	0	1	11	0	0	0	0	1	4	10	17	21	18	11	5	1	0	0	0	0	0
18	2	-	3	-	7								0					0	0	0	5		0	0	0	0	0	1	3	7	14	20	21	16	9	3	1	0	0	0
17	2	-	2	-	8								0						0	0	1				0	0	0	0	0	1	4	9	17	23	22	15	7	2	0	0
16	1	-	4	-	7															0	0						0	0	0	0	0	2	5	13	21	25	20	10	3	0
15	1	-	3	-	8															0	0							0	0	0	0	0	1	3	10	20	28	24	12	2
14	1	-	2	-	9															0	0									0	0	0	0	1	3	10	22	32	25	8
13	0	-	4	-	8																0											0	0	0	0	3	12	28	37	20
12	0	-	3	-	9																												0	0	0	1	4	18	40	37
11	0	-	2	-	10																													0	0	0	1	9	36	53
10	0	-	1	-	11																														0	0	0	4	28	67
9	0	-	0	-	12																															0	0	2	19	80

Total:						7	7	6	6	7	7	8	9	2	2	2	3	3	4	4	5	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0