Real Salt Lake Playoff Chances

Did not play, playoff odds up 0.2 to 21.6%
38 points   11-5-14

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 9/16100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
Real Salt Lake 2 Portland 1 +7.8
+0.1
+0.3
FC Dallas 0 Seattle 0 +1.0
+0.0
San Jose 1 Houston 0 -0.5
-0.1
Sporting KC 3 New England 1 -0.2
Los Angeles 0 Toronto FC 4 +0.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 9/23100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
Real Salt Lake vs Seattle+14.9-6.2-12.9
+0.4-0.2-0.3
No-0.0+0.0
+0.5-0.2-0.4
Houston vs Los Angeles-2.7+2.9+6.2
-0.1+0.1+0.1
-0.1+0.1+0.2
FC Dallas vs Colorado-2.9+2.7+6.0
-0.0+0.1+0.1
-0.1+0.1+0.2
DC United vs San Jose+3.4+0.7-5.1
+0.0+0.0-0.1
+0.1+0.0-0.2
San Jose vs Chicago-5.2+0.6+3.3
-0.1+0.0+0.0
-0.2+0.0+0.1
Minnesota vs FC Dallas+3.7+0.6-4.3
+0.1+0.0-0.1
+0.1+0.0-0.1
NYCFC vs Houston+2.1-0.8-4.8
+0.0-0.0-0.1
+0.1-0.0-0.1
Portland vs Orlando-0.3+0.1+0.8
-0.0+0.0+0.1
Seattle vs Vancouver-0.2*-0.0+0.5
-0.0+0.0+0.1
Sporting KC vs Los Angeles-0.1+0.1+0.3
Vancouver vs Colorado-0.1+0.1+0.3

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well Real Salt Lake finishes out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inSupportersChance will finish regular season at seedWooden
TPW-D-LplayoffsShield1234567891011SpoonCount
504-0-099.8%No04224227400No870,798,436
483-1-092.2No00115453171No2,861,633,344
473-0-176.8No000430432030No4,073,649,258
462-2-057.9No00116413480No3,543,688,314
452-1-135.3No00062944210No10,054,794,619
442-0-218.2No00216453700No7,111,656,920
1-3-017.4No0021645380No1,942,059,014
431-2-18.1No08375500No8,235,235,576
421-1-22.4No022473000No11,603,672,053
0-4-01.6No02207810No397,301,546
411-0-30.6No011385200No5,431,655,583
0-3-10.5No01128620No2,237,599,789
400-2-20.1No00591400No4,709,743,931
390-1-30.0No0018810000.0%4,389,768,552
380-0-40.0No008217100.01,536,085,261
Total:21.6%No000161426512000.0%68,999,342,196

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well Real Salt Lake finishes out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPW-D-LWin CupByeSporting KCVancouverSeattlePortlandHoustonFC DallasSan JoseMinnesotaColorado
504-0-07.2%2681017148740
483-1-02.717816146540
473-0-11.304510933200
462-2-00.6023551110
452-1-10.20112200000
442-0-20.10001100000
1-3-00.1000110000
431-2-10.00000
421-1-20.00000
0-4-00.00000
411-0-30.00000
0-3-10.00000
400-2-20.00000
390-1-30.0000
380-0-4No
Total:0.3%0.40.81.22.11.90.60.50.40.00.0
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 9/16100.0*Lottery seed
Real Salt Lake 2 Portland 1 -0.9
Toronto FC 3 Montreal 5 +0.2
Montreal 2 Minnesota 3 -0.1
San Jose 1 Houston 0 +0.1
Sporting KC 3 New England 1 -0.0
Atlanta 3 Orlando 3 +0.0
FC Dallas 0 Seattle 0 -0.0
Los Angeles 0 Toronto FC 4 -0.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 9/23100.0*Lottery seed
Real Salt Lake vs Seattle-1.1+0.4+1.0
San Jose vs Chicago+0.2-0.0-0.1
DC United vs San Jose-0.2-0.0+0.2
Houston vs Los Angeles+0.1-0.1-0.2
FC Dallas vs Colorado+0.1-0.1-0.2
Minnesota vs FC Dallas-0.1-0.0+0.2
NYCFC vs Houston-0.1+0.0+0.2
New England vs Toronto FC+0.2-0.0-0.1
Montreal vs NYCFC+0.1-0.0-0.1
Atlanta vs Philadelphia-0.0+0.0+0.2
Portland vs Orlando-0.0+0.0+0.1
Philadelphia vs Chicago+0.1-0.0-0.1
Atlanta vs Montreal-0.0+0.0+0.1
Orlando vs New England+0.0-0.1+0.0

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPW-D-L12345678910111213141516171819202122
504-0-00402204271941000
483-1-000101524312187100
473-0-1000040301033176000
462-2-000101633722173000
452-1-1000061282031121000
442-0-20020161436275000
1-3-00020161035307000
431-2-100842742172000
421-1-200211241358000
0-4-00208364012100
411-0-301042745212000
0-3-101032346243000
400-2-200001041399000
390-1-3000022347253000
380-0-40001040418100
Total:0000010611281621191140000