Pittsburgh Riverhounds Playoff Chances 50/50

Did not play, playoff odds down 0.4 to 42.9%

15 points 3-4-6

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

Week of 6/15	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Pittsburgh 1 Charleston 1	-2.9		-0.2
Wilmington 1 New York 0	-1.5		-0.1
Dayton 2 Tampa Bay 1	-0.6
Los Angeles 1 LA Galaxy 1	+0.6		+0.0
Rochester 1 Charleston 1	+0.4
Phoenix 0 Salt Lake 0	+0.3		+0.0
Harrisburg 3 Antigua 1	-0.2
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Harrisburg vs Pittsburgh	-9.4-3.0+11.1		-0.5-0.2+0.6
Rochester vs Antigua	-0.9+0.4+0.7		-0.1+0.0+0.0
Phoenix vs Dayton	+0.5+0.3-0.7
Charlotte vs Tampa Bay	-0.7+0.4+0.4

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 6/22	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Pittsburgh vs Antigua	+11.0-2.9-9.3		+0.6-0.1-0.5
Los Angeles vs Dayton	-2.0+0.7+1.6
Wilmington vs Charlotte	-0.5+0.9-0.0
Dayton vs Charlotte	+0.6+0.4-0.8
Charleston vs Tampa Bay	+0.5+0.2-0.6
Harrisburg vs Phoenix	+0.2+0.1-0.2
Richmond vs Vancouver	-0.2*+0.0+0.2

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Pittsburgh finish out the regular season. Explain

								100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP	W	-	L	-	T	playoffs		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	Count

54	13	-	0	-	0	In		88	11	0	0											97,118
52	12	-	0	-	1	In		72	26	2	0											34,851
51	12	-	1	-	0	In		57	37	6	0											61,768
50	11	-	0	-	2	In		47	43	10	1	0										120,172
49	11	-	1	-	1	In		31	48	19	2	0										421,208
48	11	-	2	-	0	In		19	46	29	6	0	0									620,677	*
47	10	-	1	-	2	In		10	39	38	12	1	0	0								1,317,018
46	10	-	2	-	1	In		4	26	42	23	4	0	0								2,672,263	*
45	9	-	1	-	3	In		1	15	39	34	10	1	0	0							3,845,983	*
44	9	-	2	-	2	In		0	7	29	41	20	3	0	0							6,935,204	*
43	9	-	3	-	1	100.0	%	0	2	17	39	32	9	1	0	0						10,900,951	*
42	8	-	2	-	3	100.0		0	1	7	29	40	20	3	0	0						14,874,895	*
41	8	-	3	-	2	100.0		0	0	2	17	39	32	9	1	0	0					22,605,762	*
40	8	-	4	-	1	99.9		0	0	1	7	28	40	21	3	0	0					17,388,512
	7	-	2	-	4	99.9		0	0	1	8	30	40	18	3	0	0					12,851,040	*
39	7	-	3	-	3	99.4			0	0	3	17	39	32	9	1	0					37,876,724	*
38	7	-	4	-	2	97.5			0	0	1	8	30	40	19	2	0	0				49,599,152	*
37	6	-	3	-	4	93.1			0	0	0	3	19	41	30	7	0	0				29,615,291
	7	-	5	-	1	91.8				0	0	3	17	40	32	8	0	0				28,759,152	*
36	6	-	4	-	3	83.0				0	0	1	9	33	41	16	1	0	0			52,214,996
	7	-	6	-	0	82.4				0	0	1	9	32	41	16	1	0	0			13,915,966	*
35	6	-	5	-	2	67.0				0	0	0	3	21	43	28	5	0	0			55,235,641
	5	-	3	-	5	70.1					0	0	4	22	44	26	4	0	0			20,488,546	*
34	5	-	4	-	4	51.0					0	0	1	11	38	39	10	0	0			44,430,461
	6	-	6	-	1	48.1					0	0	1	10	37	40	11	1	0			34,771,731	*
33	5	-	5	-	3	32.2					0	0	0	5	27	46	20	2	0			62,661,751
	4	-	3	-	6	32.3						0	0	5	27	46	20	2	0			17,789,511	*
32	5	-	6	-	2	17.3						0	0	1	16	45	33	5	0	0		55,218,639
	4	-	4	-	5	19.2						0	0	2	17	46	30	4	0	0		25,863,801	*
31	4	-	5	-	4	8.9						0	0	0	8	39	42	10	0	0		44,433,770
	5	-	7	-	1	8.0						0	0	0	8	37	43	11	0	0		30,912,584	*
30	4	-	6	-	3	3.4							0	0	3	27	49	20	1	0		52,218,797
	3	-	4	-	6	3.6							0	0	3	28	48	19	1	0		15,789,452	*
29	4	-	7	-	2	1.1							0	0	1	16	48	32	4	0		39,449,104
	3	-	5	-	5	1.3							0	0	1	18	48	29	3	0		20,821,549	*
28	3	-	6	-	4	0.3								0	0	9	42	41	7	0		29,617,179
	4	-	8	-	1	0.3								0	0	8	41	43	8	0		19,719,576	*
27	3	-	7	-	3	0.1								0	0	4	32	50	14	0		39,051,951	*
26	3	-	8	-	2	0.0								0	0	1	21	53	24	1		30,140,374	*
25	2	-	7	-	4	0.0									0	0	12	50	35	2		21,350,170	*
24	2	-	8	-	3	0.0									0	0	6	43	46	5		14,481,722	*
23	2	-	9	-	2	Out										0	3	33	55	9		9,522,570	*
22	1	-	8	-	4	Out										0	1	23	61	16		5,646,990	*
21	1	-	9	-	3	Out										0	0	14	61	24		3,130,876	*
20	1	-	10	-	2	Out										0	0	8	57	35		1,673,750	*
19	1	-	11	-	1	Out											0	4	50	46		775,227	*
18	0	-	10	-	3	Out											0	2	41	57		310,372	*
17	0	-	11	-	2	Out												1	31	68		119,881
16	0	-	12	-	1	Out												0	22	77		35,013
15	0	-	13	-	0	Out												0	15	85		97,101

Total:						42.9	%	0	0	1	2	4	7	12	17	20	19	12	5	1		1,002,486,792

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points (Full Screen)

Chance Will Make Playoffs (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 6/15	100.0*	Lottery seed
Pittsburgh 1 Charleston 1	+0.2
Wilmington 1 New York 0	+0.1
Phoenix 0 Salt Lake 0	-0.0
Los Angeles 1 LA Galaxy 1	-0.0
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Harrisburg vs Pittsburgh	+0.5+0.2-0.6
Rochester vs Antigua	+0.1-0.0-0.0

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 6/22	100.0*	Lottery seed
Pittsburgh vs Antigua	-0.6+0.1+0.5

What If

						100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance will finish season at seed
TP	W	-	L	-	T	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27

54	13	-	0	-	0	88	11	0	0
52	12	-	0	-	1	72	26	2	0
51	12	-	1	-	0	57	37	6	0
50	11	-	0	-	2	47	43	10	1	0
49	11	-	1	-	1	31	48	19	2	0
48	11	-	2	-	0	19	46	29	6	0	0
47	10	-	1	-	2	10	39	38	12	1	0	0
46	10	-	2	-	1	4	26	42	23	4	0	0
45	9	-	1	-	3	1	15	39	34	10	1	0	0
44	9	-	2	-	2	0	7	29	41	20	3	0	0
43	9	-	3	-	1	0	2	17	39	32	9	1	0	0
42	8	-	2	-	3	0	1	7	29	40	20	3	0	0
41	8	-	3	-	2	0	0	2	17	39	32	9	1	0	0
40	8	-	4	-	1	0	0	1	7	28	40	21	3	0	0
	7	-	2	-	4	0	0	1	8	30	40	18	3	0	0
39	7	-	3	-	3		0	0	3	17	39	32	9	1	0
38	7	-	4	-	2		0	0	1	8	30	40	19	2	0	0
37	6	-	3	-	4		0	0	0	3	19	41	30	7	0	0
	7	-	5	-	1			0	0	3	17	40	32	8	0	0
36	6	-	4	-	3			0	0	1	9	33	41	16	1	0	0
	7	-	6	-	0			0	0	1	9	32	41	16	1	0	0
35	6	-	5	-	2			0	0	0	3	21	43	28	5	0	0
	5	-	3	-	5				0	0	4	22	44	26	4	0	0
34	5	-	4	-	4				0	0	1	11	38	39	10	0	0
	6	-	6	-	1				0	0	1	10	37	40	11	1	0
33	5	-	5	-	3				0	0	0	5	27	46	20	2	0
	4	-	3	-	6					0	0	5	27	46	20	2	0
32	5	-	6	-	2					0	0	1	16	45	33	5	0	0
	4	-	4	-	5					0	0	2	17	46	30	4	0	0
31	4	-	5	-	4					0	0	0	8	39	42	10	0	0
	5	-	7	-	1					0	0	0	8	37	43	11	0	0
30	4	-	6	-	3						0	0	3	27	49	20	1	0
	3	-	4	-	6						0	0	3	28	48	19	1	0
29	4	-	7	-	2						0	0	1	16	48	32	4	0
	3	-	5	-	5						0	0	1	18	48	29	3	0
28	3	-	6	-	4							0	0	9	42	41	7	0
	4	-	8	-	1							0	0	8	41	43	8	0
27	3	-	7	-	3							0	0	4	32	50	14	0
26	3	-	8	-	2							0	0	1	21	53	24	1
25	2	-	7	-	4								0	0	12	50	35	2
24	2	-	8	-	3								0	0	6	43	46	5
23	2	-	9	-	2									0	3	33	55	9
22	1	-	8	-	4									0	1	23	61	16
21	1	-	9	-	3									0	0	14	61	24
20	1	-	10	-	2									0	0	8	57	35
19	1	-	11	-	1										0	4	50	46
18	0	-	10	-	3										0	2	41	57
17	0	-	11	-	2											1	31	68
16	0	-	12	-	1											0	22	77
15	0	-	13	-	0											0	15	85

Total:						0	0	1	2	4	7	12	17	20	19	12	5	1